No you're absolutely right. My general rule of thumb is i subtract a few lbs from end of cycle. You never keep all gains. Basically I expect to lose about 1/4-1/2 of weight gain from cycle.Generally youll lose the intracellular water and glycogen weight gained from an oral cycle shortly after PCT. This is why its hard to gauge without bloods. I always go by libido and motivation and mood. PCT= depressed and no libido or motivation to train. When these return I feel confident Im recovering.
If Gained 10lbs I expect to keep around 5-6lbs
But yes I'm on the look out for mood, motivation, lethargy to decline, libido, and also BP when I use a pre workout. During a cycle when you use a pre Bp usually rises and you get hot really quick.