Stocks
- Thread starter GreenMachineX
- Start date
ValiantThor08
Board Sponsor
I'm the eternal optimist. Also a realist. I'm that certain about this play.
ValiantThor08
Board Sponsor
Wait till you see the dips during squeeze. Imagine it hitting 1k, then dipping to 400. Have to prepare emotionally for what's to come.
BOSSMAN
Well-known member
I think I'm ready!!!!!
GreenMachineX
Well-known member
Oh heck yes lol. I know exactly what you mean.
ax1
Legend
I put $15k in so that’s that for me
Right now most of my recent new investment money has been going into Safemoon. Plotting a future plan on both crypto and stock if AMC works out for me.
ValiantThor08
Board Sponsor
ax1
Legend
I look at disappointing as a opportunity as I more than doubled my holdings since it’s “crash.” I just believe in the project long term as a 3-5+ year hold, and gamble of course :$
If AMC works out I’m buying several billion at minimum….hopefully the price remains the same or keeps dipping.
GQdaLEGEND
Legend
i think i heard safemoon joe say it won't really take off towards end of the year when they are relaunching products
ax1
Legend
It’s almost unbelievable to think Safemoon is only a little over 100 days old.
ValiantThor08
Board Sponsor
GQdaLEGEND
Legend
oh wow is it really ?
its good to get in so early and hopefully we are holding a gold mine
im looking at doge coin history
| Jul 08, 2020 | 0.003097 |
and i do feel this would be bigger then anything out there w/ a wallet release
and hearing somehow elon musk linked to it .. anyway sorry to keep rambling in a stocks thread
ValiantThor08
Board Sponsor
This is awesome
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BamBam54
Well-known member
Awesome to have retail with 80% of share voting power, and someone actually listening!!
The thing I struggle with is how AMC has 20% short/float whatever and GME had like 102%. When the GME squeeze happened as the first sudden retail driven event, stock zoomed up to $500.
So.... with far less short shares out for AMC, and less of an element of surprise, I don't see how this time will surpass the GME event. AMC can zoom and be great.... but I don't see a precedent or math that ever gets it anywhere close to $1000. But will be glad to be proved wrong!!
jameschoi
Well-known member
Anyone trading synthetic equities? And is there an app that makes the trades
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A thread on reddit says there are billions of syn shares that must be bought from retail. Does that sound right?
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ax1
Legend
The price is just unlimited, its a matter of a holders putting their shares on the market for the shorts to buy so they can cover their bets.
GME never fully hit its squeeze, they made the button disappear on several platforms and prevented multiple margin calls from taking place. Going by the $500 number and comparing to that isnt for the most part relevant.
ax1
Legend
As far as my understanding, the synthetics are really unproven theories, doesnt mean they dont exist or that they are being illegally utilized. Ortex has to go by official numbers.
ax1
Legend
Nobody knows for certain if synthetics exist, and if they do we don’t know how much. It could be in the millions, some say millions are possible but whats needed is forensics investigation to prove it.
As far as I know, synthetic shorts still need to be covered thats why some speculate a massive explosion on top of the squeeze.
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GQdaLEGEND
Legend
what @ax1 said .. i wouldnt put a price point on AMC .. GME was on pace to cross over $1k if halting didnt happen
AMC - if its true that we own the float over 80% and community is well advised that they wont sell for pennies ( it will keep climbling on and on .. until someone sells hedgies the shares )
i think 1k would be easy peasy to reach for AMC .. its just a matter of when for me .. i had picked till last year .. if its over $200+ in dec i would be happy .. if it squeeze to $1k tommorow i would be happy
long as you keep this in mind - they need us to sell at a certain price and we aren't giving them that price .. yeah pple will panic sell but hopefully rediit youtube keeps educating people on non financial advise
BamBam54
Well-known member
I think we own the 80% and NOT the float. And the float seems to be keeping pace with the shorts, allowing them a way out before any major squeeze.
The unknown is the dark pool, synthetics/naked, etc. Hoping this FTD threshold business and forced margins will be the catalyst we need to finally take off to gamma-ville.
GreenMachineX
Well-known member
What is the float again?
ax1
Legend
A little over 500 million.
ax1
Legend
Adam Aaron confirmed the "retail" investor owns 80% of the entire float about a month ago. This did not include some international countries. This doesnt mean 80% or diamond handed apes.
Keep in mind not everything is "manipulation." There are still swing traders out there, many who do this for a living, there are institutions that own a large about (Blackrock has almost 6 million) that they themselves can lend out (and keep in mind, at some point they may and should sell off,) the retail can have their shares lent out by brokerages, unless they specify to turn that off, etc...
That being said, the shorts still for the most part havent covered so this is all game.
GreenMachineX
Well-known member
nostrum420
Well-known member
BamBam54
Well-known member
Looking at Yahoo finance for some quick numbers to discuss (outdated June 15th numbers, but you will get the point)
Total Float is 450m shares
Insiders hold 0.33%
Institutions hold 23.27%
Leaving Retail to hold the remaining 76%, right?
SHORT shares were 85.08m on this date
Short percent of float was 17.02% on this date
?? For the best mega gamma short squeeze potential, wouldn't we want the percent of float being shorted to be HIGHER than the amount officially held by institutions??? With retail holding the extra?
Total Float is 450m shares
Insiders hold 0.33%
Institutions hold 23.27%
Leaving Retail to hold the remaining 76%, right?
SHORT shares were 85.08m on this date
Short percent of float was 17.02% on this date
?? For the best mega gamma short squeeze potential, wouldn't we want the percent of float being shorted to be HIGHER than the amount officially held by institutions??? With retail holding the extra?
GreenMachineX
Well-known member
Good questions...
ax1
Legend
Gamma squeeze and short squeeze are two totally different things, but the gamma can trigger a short. There are 500 million shares in the free float, you can check webull buy bringing down a drop box by touching the price. It is confirmed retail ownes more than 80 percent of the entire float.
The gamma squeeze are when alot of call options close out on fridays. Every option is a hundred shares, so if you have 80,000 options closing out in the money then 8 million shares would have to be hedged for off of the market.
For the short squeeze, if the shorts are margin called and they dont add collateral to the margin, or liquidate their own accounts, their accounts start getting liquidated by force by the brokerage until enough shares are available for the shorts to be covered. If people arent willing to sell the price just goes up.
A gamma squeeze can trigger a short squeeze....a gamma squeeze would create tremendous buying pressure increasing the price of the share and increasing how much the shorts are in the hole. This can potentially trigger margin calls for shorts to cover as they become more and more deleveraged.
85 million need to be covered from 400 million retail ownership, you cant assume the retail shareholders are just going to hand off their shares at any price the hedge-funds want them at.
If the retail holder does not sell their shares the price can go infinity (although that wont happen which is another story for another time, but thats what it can go to, infinity.)
Obviously there are going to be alot of people who are fall in the hold, but if the naked shorts are for real and they are in the millions potentially billions then this you can use your imagination on....but but the latter is something we wont find out until this is all said and done with.
Now.......keep in mind, its not going to be just the hedgefunds that are going to want to buy shares. FOMO is giong to get serious and for real (I think past $100,) retail will go crazy to buy more shares and full time swing traders create a demand as well, so you cant think that just because retail sells that the hedgefunds are guaranteed to get those shares.
Hope that makes sense, it took me a long time to get it myself, lol
ax1
Legend
Keep in mind too, its us, the hodlers/sellers that set the sale price. We as a whole can determine how far this may go up, and this includes institutional holders who are aware of the situation and are in this to make money as well. We set our minumums, we set our own selling prices....and of course, you can get greedy and miss out on alot of money so no guarantees here.
Its really a dominate setting once you think about it, this isnt a regular trade, its a political movement.
nostrum420
Well-known member
The hypothesis is that that is the case and the numbers being shown are BS, if I understand correctly.
Go to about 1:14
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BamBam54
Well-known member
Ax1 - the error I see here is that the 85 million DO NOT have to come from the 400 million retail ownership. Did you see the part I posted about Institutional ownership?? If the institutional has 100 million shares, don't they have more than enough to cover the hedge shorts with or without retail???
So far the shorts have covered in the money, no??
ax1
Legend
So your assuming all the instutitional holders are the ones who own all the shorts which I dont think is the case for the most part, but Im not sure we can obtain all these numbers. I know Blackrock is a major shareholder with almost 6 million (the biggest holder I believe) and they arent shorting AMC as far as I know.
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ax1
Legend
Millions of shorts still have to cover their bets, many still come from the era when they were in the hole at $25 and tanked down to $5, they never covered their shorts.....they still wanted to tank AMC to zero, and now they are really screwed unless they can tank AMC again which isnt going to happen since AMC is well funded into next year even of CCP-Virus version 2 shuts AMC down again.
ax1
Legend
Keep in mind not all the institutional holders belong to the same club, they have their own interests. Not every institution wanted AMC to go bankrupt, the opposite actually. Back when GME happened some big D's did bail out little D's but Im sure there was a heavy price for that. On top of that I rememeber some regulation taking place afterwards that it cant be done like that again, but Im going by memory here....so many regulations have popped up since.
BamBam54
Well-known member
I am more of a math guy than a stock guy, but I am pretty good at asking the tough questions. The argument being made that the price of AMC could ever go to the moon (above $1000) because the shorts HAVE to obtain retail shares at any cost seems simply untrue. There are more than enough institutional shares (100m) to cover every single short (85m). And I would think those shares would sell out long before a mega moon launch. Just keeping it real....
The biggest thing WE DO have going for us is the Threshold List of FTD's. That sounds like a problem someone is trying to delay. And ape sentiment is strong to force their hand, so I still expect a nice price surge. On top of that the mystery of synthetic shares and fraud in the hedge fund market that Lou seems to hint about from his inside sources. And AMC being a real company with real upside coming out of a pandemic shutdown.
So much more good than bad on the horizon I think. But still no giant space lasers in the sky....
The biggest thing WE DO have going for us is the Threshold List of FTD's. That sounds like a problem someone is trying to delay. And ape sentiment is strong to force their hand, so I still expect a nice price surge. On top of that the mystery of synthetic shares and fraud in the hedge fund market that Lou seems to hint about from his inside sources. And AMC being a real company with real upside coming out of a pandemic shutdown.
So much more good than bad on the horizon I think. But still no giant space lasers in the sky....
ax1
Legend
Your also assuming that institutions (which are not all even hedgefunds) that are long that if they put their shares on the market that many of them wont be gobbled up by potentially another million new retail investors swallowing up those shares. This is just more than math, the numbers cant match as you think they would because you have no idea where they are going and who who is buying them along with assuming assuming they all get put on the market in the first place. I doubt they will all be doing backdoor deals dumping off in darkpools just to allow some corrupt hedgefunds bail themselves out.
There definitely will be institutions throwing shares onto the market creating large dips thats for for sure, but these shares can be easily gobbled up by retail as well. Will the demand be high at $1000 by retail? Probably not, but if they get gobbled up at a lower price and a hedgefund is being liquidated and even if only a few more shares or even a single share are needed to cover the short, we still all control the market price, they cant just take it from us.
You do ask good questions thats why Im taking time trying to figure this out on my end as well.
ax1
Legend
Think about it like this, if a measly 1,00,000 new investors (think this is a global market) go FOMO after it hits $100 and their average purchase quantity 75 shares thats 75 million shares. And keep in mind there are rich people that are going to watch the news and jump in to making 75 share average attainable at those prices (right now retail average is about 120 shares if thats correct.)
That just a number Im making up to help put things into perspective, FOMO will be real and retail will starve for shares, so institutional selling doesnt equate to all the shorts being covered....the legal ones anyways, hahhaaa
We dont need millions of shares to be on demand for the price to hit 1,000 during a liquidation/margin call.
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ax1
Legend
I have to throw this out even though I know you know this. Decide your own plan and your own numbers, dont let me or anyone influence your price. Just saying Id feel horrible if you sold too early or too late.
I do know myself Im not holding all my shares until 1,000, I have a plan if the numbers meet I sell off a certain quantity. I must walk out of this with some money and pay attention and see how things go....if it goes up at all of course.
ValiantThor08
Board Sponsor
The VW short squeeze was because of institutional owning of the stock. It quickly shot up to 1000 euros before Porsche I believe sold. So institution holding up to 20 percent of the float isn't going to kill the momentum. It has not killed the momentum from 8 dollars all the way to 70 dollars. I believe the retail investor owns more of the stock than was said over a month ago. I believe synthetic stock is a real issue.