Supply Chain Update -- Not looking good.

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What the supplement industry is facing:

INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT: Freight costs internationally have worsened in August. The cost of shipping a container from China to the U.S. has increased 4-7 times since pre-covid numbers, depending on ports. The U.S. and global demand continue to outpace capacity causing wait times in excess of 4 weeks and container cost increases of $1000 every 2 weeks. We’re now running into the holiday season where companies will be increasing inventories which will further exacerbate the problems.

A container from Shanghai to LA has increased from $2,350 to $14,100 with spot purchases in excess of $30,000 per container. The cause: surging global demand, shortage of containers, the Suez Canal blockage, the closing of the Yantian port, COVID issues, lack of employees at ports, shortage of trucks and the increasing trade imbalance.

Most analysts are predicting it will be between mid-2022 and the end of 2022 before we see any relief. The general consensus is that after the market normalizes, freight will not return to where it was. Higher freight costs will be the new norm.

DOMESTIC FREIGHT: Domestic freight has increased 80-85% in the first 6 months of 2021 compares the same period in 2020.
WHEY PROTEIN: Whey protein presents the most serious of problem for our industry right now. Pricing is rising with no answer in sight as to when it will stop. Whey Concentrate (WPC80) has gone up almost 150% in the last few months and Whey Isolate (WPI90) has almost doubled in the same period.

Manufacturers are getting hit hard and passing price increases on to brands who are in turn seeing a $5 to $10 increase in the cost of their 2 pound tubs.
That’s only the increase from the CMO to the brand, add to that the markup from the brand to the store, and then from the store to the consumer. Dairy manufacturers might be pricing themselves out of the industry soon, because whey protein products will be hitting a retail price point that consumers are just not willing to pay. This will cause consumers to look for alternative protein sources.

Because of existing inventory and dairy contracts, many brands have not yet increased their price, but it is inevitable. So far we’ve seen only a handful of brands increase their pricing so it hasn’t yet fully trickled down to the consumer. But give it 30 to 60 more days and the **** will hit the fan. There will be a consumer revolt that will affect all whey goods including: protein powders, weight gainers, protein blends and meal replacements. My biggest fear is what could happen to product quality. We will certainly see a resurgence of protein spiking, WPC34 bait and switch and many other scams.

CREATINE MONOHYDRATE: Availability continues to be a disaster. Supply is extremely tight and shows no sign of improving in the near future. Factories are still producing very little material and are not honoring their contracts so may brands are subsequently finding CMOs cancelling their commitments, delaying shipment and increasing prices. Creatine is currently 3-4 times higher in cost than it was 6 months ago but even if you are willing to pay the price, good luck finding it.

Yogan and Baosui are rationing their outputs to the entire market while Taiking is fully booked through the end of October. The cause continues to be a shortage of the raw materials needed to manufacture creatine. Yongan, one of the main manufacturers of creatine, controls the supply of HAN (hydroxy acetonitrile). HAN is produced from natural gas which creates excessive pollution so the Chinese Government has demanded a reduction in the manufacture of it. Hengkang controls cyanimide also needed for the production of creatine. Calcium carbide used to manufacture cyanimide is in short supply because it too is a heavy pollutant and utilizes extensive amounts of energy, so China has reduced its production as well. To worsen matters, calcium carbide is a key component used in the manufacture of PVC. PVC production is at an all-time high which further tightens the supply of calcium carbide.

CITRULLINE & CITRULLINE MALATE: Pricing for both of these has hit an all-time high, up about 60% in the last few months, and it continues to rise. Currently, supply is extremely tight and very hard to find. CJ, the most significant player in the citrulline market, closed their Haide plant in China and will continue production only out of Indonesia, but that will not be enough to fill the void because the factory has limited capacity. Currently, there is no solution for CM until maybe the 2nd to 3rd quarter 2022.

ALBION MINERALS: Albion has experienced problems keeping up with demand for a few months now. Sales of their key minerals have grown dramatically and they currently do not have the manufacturing capacity to meet the demand. Their warehouse shelves are bare and all incoming supply is already spoken for through end of year. Current commitments of some ingredients are being rationed off. Purchase orders placed now will not be available for delivery until 1st quarter 2020 on most products.

VEGETARIAN CAPSULES: Capsugel and Caps Canada have zero stock with little or no information as to when they can supply. Caps Canada might have seriously screwed their future business because they shut down all communication with customers. They gave no advance warnings of supply problems, are not giving out estimated times, and didn’t take or return calls. Customers understand the current issues but what is unforgivable is lack of communications and disregard for years of loyal business. Gelatin capsules so far are stable.

CAFFEINE ANHYDROUS: Caffeine took a big hit this year after China shut down production. The material became scarce and the price skyrocketed. Currently, the price is about 12-18% higher than the norm. It seems China has reopened factories so hopefully, we’ll see a return to normal.
AMINO ACIDS: Aminos overall have increased from 5% to 25%. BCAAs, arginine and glutamine are on the rise. NAC is stable, probably because of lower demand due to the crackdown by Amazon, which removed all NAC products. Tyrosine needs to be watched because supply is getting tight. Carnitines are getting tight and price is on the rice due to some manufacturing plant shut downs. Alanine, taurine, and cysteine are stable.
VITAMINS: Vitamin price and supply is stable for the time being. Folic acid supply is getting tight because p-aminobenzoyl glutamic acid, used in manufacturing, is in short supply. Inositol price is on the rise. Natural Vitamin E is the one watch here as supply is limited and price is on the rise. Synthetic Vitamin E so far is stable.



As you can see prices are up, supply is short, and demand is high.
Per Mark Glazier off FB
 

chainsaw

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What the supplement industry is facing:

INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT: Freight costs internationally have worsened in August. The cost of shipping a container from China to the U.S. has increased 4-7 times since pre-covid numbers, depending on ports. The U.S. and global demand continue to outpace capacity causing wait times in excess of 4 weeks and container cost increases of $1000 every 2 weeks. We’re now running into the holiday season where companies will be increasing inventories which will further exacerbate the problems.

A container from Shanghai to LA has increased from $2,350 to $14,100 with spot purchases in excess of $30,000 per container. The cause: surging global demand, shortage of containers, the Suez Canal blockage, the closing of the Yantian port, COVID issues, lack of employees at ports, shortage of trucks and the increasing trade imbalance.

Most analysts are predicting it will be between mid-2022 and the end of 2022 before we see any relief. The general consensus is that after the market normalizes, freight will not return to where it was. Higher freight costs will be the new norm.

DOMESTIC FREIGHT: Domestic freight has increased 80-85% in the first 6 months of 2021 compares the same period in 2020.
WHEY PROTEIN: Whey protein presents the most serious of problem for our industry right now. Pricing is rising with no answer in sight as to when it will stop. Whey Concentrate (WPC80) has gone up almost 150% in the last few months and Whey Isolate (WPI90) has almost doubled in the same period.

Manufacturers are getting hit hard and passing price increases on to brands who are in turn seeing a $5 to $10 increase in the cost of their 2 pound tubs.
That’s only the increase from the CMO to the brand, add to that the markup from the brand to the store, and then from the store to the consumer. Dairy manufacturers might be pricing themselves out of the industry soon, because whey protein products will be hitting a retail price point that consumers are just not willing to pay. This will cause consumers to look for alternative protein sources.

Because of existing inventory and dairy contracts, many brands have not yet increased their price, but it is inevitable. So far we’ve seen only a handful of brands increase their pricing so it hasn’t yet fully trickled down to the consumer. But give it 30 to 60 more days and the **** will hit the fan. There will be a consumer revolt that will affect all whey goods including: protein powders, weight gainers, protein blends and meal replacements. My biggest fear is what could happen to product quality. We will certainly see a resurgence of protein spiking, WPC34 bait and switch and many other scams.

CREATINE MONOHYDRATE: Availability continues to be a disaster. Supply is extremely tight and shows no sign of improving in the near future. Factories are still producing very little material and are not honoring their contracts so may brands are subsequently finding CMOs cancelling their commitments, delaying shipment and increasing prices. Creatine is currently 3-4 times higher in cost than it was 6 months ago but even if you are willing to pay the price, good luck finding it.

Yogan and Baosui are rationing their outputs to the entire market while Taiking is fully booked through the end of October. The cause continues to be a shortage of the raw materials needed to manufacture creatine. Yongan, one of the main manufacturers of creatine, controls the supply of HAN (hydroxy acetonitrile). HAN is produced from natural gas which creates excessive pollution so the Chinese Government has demanded a reduction in the manufacture of it. Hengkang controls cyanimide also needed for the production of creatine. Calcium carbide used to manufacture cyanimide is in short supply because it too is a heavy pollutant and utilizes extensive amounts of energy, so China has reduced its production as well. To worsen matters, calcium carbide is a key component used in the manufacture of PVC. PVC production is at an all-time high which further tightens the supply of calcium carbide.

CITRULLINE & CITRULLINE MALATE: Pricing for both of these has hit an all-time high, up about 60% in the last few months, and it continues to rise. Currently, supply is extremely tight and very hard to find. CJ, the most significant player in the citrulline market, closed their Haide plant in China and will continue production only out of Indonesia, but that will not be enough to fill the void because the factory has limited capacity. Currently, there is no solution for CM until maybe the 2nd to 3rd quarter 2022.

ALBION MINERALS: Albion has experienced problems keeping up with demand for a few months now. Sales of their key minerals have grown dramatically and they currently do not have the manufacturing capacity to meet the demand. Their warehouse shelves are bare and all incoming supply is already spoken for through end of year. Current commitments of some ingredients are being rationed off. Purchase orders placed now will not be available for delivery until 1st quarter 2020 on most products.

VEGETARIAN CAPSULES: Capsugel and Caps Canada have zero stock with little or no information as to when they can supply. Caps Canada might have seriously screwed their future business because they shut down all communication with customers. They gave no advance warnings of supply problems, are not giving out estimated times, and didn’t take or return calls. Customers understand the current issues but what is unforgivable is lack of communications and disregard for years of loyal business. Gelatin capsules so far are stable.

CAFFEINE ANHYDROUS: Caffeine took a big hit this year after China shut down production. The material became scarce and the price skyrocketed. Currently, the price is about 12-18% higher than the norm. It seems China has reopened factories so hopefully, we’ll see a return to normal.
AMINO ACIDS: Aminos overall have increased from 5% to 25%. BCAAs, arginine and glutamine are on the rise. NAC is stable, probably because of lower demand due to the crackdown by Amazon, which removed all NAC products. Tyrosine needs to be watched because supply is getting tight. Carnitines are getting tight and price is on the rice due to some manufacturing plant shut downs. Alanine, taurine, and cysteine are stable.
VITAMINS: Vitamin price and supply is stable for the time being. Folic acid supply is getting tight because p-aminobenzoyl glutamic acid, used in manufacturing, is in short supply. Inositol price is on the rise. Natural Vitamin E is the one watch here as supply is limited and price is on the rise. Synthetic Vitamin E so far is stable.



As you can see prices are up, supply is short, and demand is high.
Per Mark Glazier off FB

So what you are saying is to stock up
 
Smont

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Funny enough I was just in a GNC and although the eaa's I grabbed were priced well, the creatine was 3x it's normal price, there was no glutamine in the store and the protein powder was all a little higher then normal as well. I thought it was just because I was in a store vs. Online shopping but now it makes total sense
 
Smont

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Do we know of any quality protein powders made in the USA?
 
The Solution

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Funny enough I was just in a GNC and although the eaa's I grabbed were priced well, the creatine was 3x it's normal price, there was no glutamine in the store and the protein powder was all a little higher then normal as well. I thought it was just because I was in a store vs. Online shopping but now it makes total sense
Sept 1 you will see ALOT of online retailers raise protein prices given raws are nearly double in price.

@DieselNY had a great example
"Take the typical 53 foot truck holds something like 48,000lbs give or take of whey protein. So when whey protein increases a pathetic 50 CENTS a pound it HURTS."

Apply this to nearly double the price. You can do the math.
 
Nac

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(y)thankfully I live in a country which supplies a huge chunk of the whey market

(n)it's actually cheaper for me to order Protein that had its origins here, from overseas
 
DieselNY

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Do we know of any quality protein powders made in the USA?
The issue is that the USA protein manufacturers are selling 90% of their production to China for 3 x the price Americans pay. They see China is stupid enough to pay that much so they decided to sell almost all of it to them. Now all manufacturers here in the US are paying out the ass from the protein/dairy companies for the tiny 10% supply that they give us access too. Sh*t show.
 
Nac

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The issue is that the USA protein manufacturers are selling 90% of their production to China for 3 x the price Americans pay. They see China is stupid enough to pay that much so they decided to sell almost all of it to them. Now all manufacturers here in the US are paying out the ass from the protein/dairy companies for the tiny 10% supply that they give us access too. Sh*t show.
That's exactly what's happening here in NZ. I mean, it's basic exporting economics but that doesn't make it any less counterintuitive. We have more sheep and cattle here than people...but cheaper for me to buy Auzzie steak and US protein.
 
Rad83

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Ugh this is all bad news, but I appreciate the good insider information!

On a similar-ish note, it’s haven’t been able to find capsule, smelling salts…I like em while lifting 🤷‍♂️ …The brand I like, has been back ordered since last winter! …Any relation to this supplements?
 

mase1

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Not seeing much difference in whey prices or availability of creatine.
 
Renew1

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The thing I don’t understand is... why is the us still buying the raw material instead of synthesizing it ourselves. We have chemist here too sheeesh
Are you talking about the illegal to produce (in the USA) material?
... Or other material?
 
Renew1

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The thing I don’t understand is... why is the us still buying the raw material instead of synthesizing it ourselves. We have chemist here too sheeesh
If you're talking about legal stuff from China ...
People buy from there because it is traditionally cheaper.
 

Iwilleattuna

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If you're talking about legal stuff from China ...
People buy from there because it is traditionally cheaper.
I mean the raw materials anywhere foreign since you can’t source whey , or any type of whey that’s trustworthy in China for example lol
 
Renew1

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yes , I know but why can’t we just make the raw ingredients in a us facility ? Is that more expensive long term?
Yep.
(Generally).

But if it gets too expensive, others will step in, to start making some of that cash.
 

Iwilleattuna

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We’d also create more jobs for US citizens
 
Nac

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But it's basic economics isn't it?

You make something to sell, and sell it to whoever is prepared to pay most for it. And/or whoever is prepared to trade you something they make in return.

If you make more of it, you still sell it to whoever offers best deal. If the best deal is not domestic, you go with international.
 
DieselNY

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Not seeing much difference in whey prices or availability of creatine.
Thats because you are seeing current stock and these brands have tons of it. When all these brands are running low and do another production that's when their prices change for the worse.

I had a few production runs recently, one I had snuck in right before the major price increase then I had another significantly smaller unit run which cost MORE than the first one with way more units..... because of new updated pricing. So the price changes on the consumer end will be coming soon.
 
Nac

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Thats because you are seeing current stock and these brands have tons of it. When all these brands are running low and do another production that's when their prices change for the worse.

I had a few production runs recently, one I had snuck in right before the major price increase then I had another significantly smaller unit run which cost MORE than the first one with way more units..... because of new updated pricing. So the price changes on the consumer end will be coming soon.
I feel like I should be able to deduce this but, pls humor a fool...who do you work for/own?
 
THOR 70

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Uh, sounds like this freight pricing Will effect everything including food. I’m not worried about supplements as much.

Everyone should start thinking a little more like those crazy preppers!
 
LeanEngineer

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Two words... Stock Up :)
 

johnny412

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Well I am in real estate but my "side gig" has been keto (been keto since 1996) and started a small little brand 5 years ago.

Being protein is a big part of my sales, I see this first hand. KetoShop.com
dieselny did you send me the free betadrine eca?
 

totalpackage

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We’d also create more jobs for US citizens
Do you think the owners of these companies really care about creating U.S. jobs?
NOPE they want to get the lowest priced ingredients and labor to reap the MOST
profit to buy that bigger yacht or make their summer homes larger.;)
 

johnny412

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Probably yes!
question lol? how much caffeine per serving? and what ingredient in it is giving me euphoric laser focus? just started taking it so cant speak for results on fatloss yet but that other thing i just mentioned is pretty good lol :)
 

mase1

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At the end of the day if prices soar maybe people will focus more on nutrition and routines and reap better results. I'm a guilty supplement junkie also, lol.
 
KvanH

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At the end of the day if prices soar maybe people will focus more on nutrition and routines and reap better results. I'm a guilty supplement junkie also, lol.
Not sure if those contradict with each other. By my estimation the people who buy a lot of supps, also focus a lot on nutrition and routines aswell. Of course there are some people who don't put in the work and think that they can 'buy' their way with all the supps in the world, but those kind of people don't tend to last on the fitness journey anyways.
 
SkRaw85

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yes , I know but why can’t we just make the raw ingredients in a us facility ? Is that more expensive long term?
Sure. But in China, factory workers are “making” fiddy cent per day to “work” or get their throats cut if they don’t “work”. In America, nobody is working and everywhere is hiring. Whatever the minimum wage is these days (>$.50), people still won’t work. Sooooooo, easy to draw a conclusion.
 

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Sure. But in China, factory workers are “making” fiddy cent per day to “work” or get their throats cut if they don’t “work”. In America, nobody is working and everywhere is hiring. Whatever the minimum wage is these days (>$.50), people still won’t work. Sooooooo, easy to draw a conclusion.
fast food places payin @$15 an hour and STILL havin to shut down some days cause nobody will work smdh
 

johnny412

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On a positive note, perhaps more people will learn how to cook? 🤷🏼

Not knowing how to cook is like not knowing how to fook.
omg funny you said that! just bought an electric smoker and yesterday i cooked beer battered cod for the first time so good!
 
Mathb33

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That’s old news. These prices are happening since 6-8+ months. My compagnies been paying 15k a container for almost a year. New world, new age. It’s all fucked.
 

Iwilleattuna

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Sure. But in China, factory workers are “making” fiddy cent per day to “work” or get their throats cut if they don’t “work”. In America, nobody is working and everywhere is hiring. Whatever the minimum wage is these days (>$.50), people still won’t work. Sooooooo, easy to draw a conclusion.
true. And bringing here would force them to pay employees a higher wage but no one is going to do that lol
 
DieselNY

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question lol? how much caffeine per serving? and what ingredient in it is giving me euphoric laser focus? just started taking it so cant speak for results on fatloss yet but that other thing i just mentioned is pretty good lol :)
Well I've always gotten laser focus and euphoric feeling on any sort of ECA type stack or even the real thing. That being said if I wanted to focus on one ingredient I think the Huperzine A can be good in that regard. But the combo of a few of the ingredients are what's doing all that to you.

@sns8778 is the man to talk to with things like this, his knowledge of these herbs are above and beyond anyone I've ever met.
 
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BCseacow83

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What I find sort of surprising/disturbing is how many people I talk to at the retail level, so customers, that seem to be completely unaware of the situation. When I attempt to explain people almost think I am making it up or they simply can't understand how covid could result in such a situation.

Not going political but I simply tell people you cannot press pause on a global economy and then press play when you are good and ready and expect everything to be hunky dory.
 
DieselNY

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What I find sort of surprising/disturbing is how many people I talk to at the retail level, so customers, that seem to be completely unaware of the situation. When I attempt to explain people almost think I am making it up or they simply can't understand how covid could result in such a situation.

Not going political but I simply tell people you cannot press pause on a global economy and then press play when you are good and ready and expect everything to be hunky dory.
The one thing I've noticed everyone is aware of is how building supplies are up and housing inventory is at a 25 year low. It's funny how everyone follows real estate regardless if they are in the biz (like me) or not.

As far as nutritional supplements, yeah most people are clueless and even those who own small retail stores don't even stay up on things....but they will once brands start raising their prices or stop selling certain products to retail (like protein) until prices stabilize.

I was explaining this to a store owner on Thursday and he looked at me like I had 3 heads.
 
thebigt

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The one thing I've noticed everyone is aware of is how building supplies are up and housing inventory is at a 25 year low. It's funny how everyone follows real estate regardless if they are in the biz (like me) or not.

As far as nutritional supplements, yeah most people are clueless and even those who own small retail stores don't even stay up on things....but they will once brands start raising their prices or stop selling certain products to retail (like protein) until prices stabilize.

I was explaining this to a store owner on Thursday and he looked at me like I had 3 heads.
corn was a wash this year-literally...it's really going to impact availability and price of meat and dairy.
 
KvanH

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Interested on how much do you guys typically pay for whey protein? I can usually find a bulk offer for about 10 € / kg, which would be approx 5,3 $ / 1 lb.
 
LeanEngineer

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better question is who has high quality protien on sale right now, or best deals?
I'm a PES Select fan so that's my go to. I don't think they have a sale right now though.
 
DieselNY

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Interested on how much do you guys typically pay for whey protein? I can usually find a bulk offer for about 10 € / kg, which would be approx 5,3 $ / 1 lb.
Current pricing is irrelevant. Give it a few months once brands start adjusting prices as they start doing new production runs at the current pricing which is 75 to 100% more than it used to cost them to produce 1 tub of protein back in May of this year.
 
THOR 70

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Anyone know a good price per serving to use as a baseline?

I like the musclepharm cookies and creme from Costco and it’s right around $.50 a serving if I remember right.
 

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