Supply Chain Update -- Not looking good.

KvanH

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Anyone know a good price per serving to use as a baseline?

I like the musclepharm cookies and creme from Costco and it’s right around $.50 a serving if I remember right.
That's pretty close to the pricing I laid out above.
 
BCseacow83

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Current pricing is irrelevant. Give it a few months once brands start adjusting prices as they start doing new production runs at the current pricing which is 75 to 100% more than it used to cost them to produce 1 tub of protein back in May of this year.
I see a lot of blends with no more than 30% of the total protein coming from whey. Something like 1/3 egg, 1/3 beef(or pea), 1/3 whey or something along these lines. They can call it something like Super-Pro 5000 featuring WHEY PROTEIN! This way(lol) they can put the important word WHEY on the label and try to work around the price a little bit. Heck it would most likely be 10% whey total from some companies and they could use the really low-grade whey conc. as well.

Obviously shipping costs hurt all proteins regardless of source but do we know the situation for the following:
Casein
Pea
Rice
Beef Iso
Egg white
Whole egg???
 
DieselNY

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I see a lot of blends with no more than 30% of the total protein coming from whey. Something like 1/3 egg, 1/3 beef(or pea), 1/3 whey or something along these lines. They can call it something like Super-Pro 5000 featuring WHEY PROTEIN! This way(lol) they can put the important word WHEY on the label and try to work around the price a little bit. Heck it would most likely be 10% whey total from some companies and they could use the really low-grade whey conc. as well.

Obviously shipping costs hurt all proteins regardless of source but do we know the situation for the following:
Casein
Pea
Rice
Beef Iso
Egg white
Whole egg???
Yeah cheap blends are always going to keep costs down they put like 1/3rd WPI and then a few others but now WPC is also up so that's going to add to cost of the blend. Egg pricing is stable and glad you mentioned shipping.

Truck load delivery from California to Texas to used to cost like $2800, now it's up to around $13,000. So all these things will be figured into pricing of not only protein but anything else that has to be trucked, which is everything.

PES is perfect example:

(Milk Protein Isolate, Whey Protein Concentrate 80%, Leucine Peptides),

I don't use MPI but with I had a conversation with my CM last year, it's not cheap either. So PES uses MPI, WPC and yea normally thats going to be cheaper than 100% WPI90 but both WPC80 and WPI90 are up in so the only way these blends will still be advantageous from a profit standpoint is to use some really crappy whey and just list "whey protein concentrate" as part of the blend and use one of or blend of wpc 50-60-70... but that must be some crap quality. Then maybe 10% wpi so atleast you can list it on the label. So 90% wpc60 and 10% wpi90.

But truth be told I don't even know know what wpc60 looks like. I've had wpc70 from Supplement Direct back in the 1990s and it was grainy as fk.

From my recollection I think Syntha 6 would be the lowest cost blend to produce since they use so many types in their blends with the expensive ones being only a tiny %. But again, wpc is up now so curious to see what they do. I'm sure they won't need to change since it's just 1/6th of their blend. So a 100% increase in WPC hardly hurts them.

The buzz from some brands I know is that they will lower the protein grams per scoop and possibly number of servings. Say goodbye to 5lb tubs but that dinosaur tub has been slowly going away pre covid anyway. 2lb and 3.5lb will probably be most common.

Whey protein is so insane expensive such that I am just about ready to release my vegan line of proteins which costs a fortune (because of all the natural ingredients and natural flavoring system) but this *fortune* is still cheaper than what it costs me to produce my whey proteins with the current crazy pricing.

Maybe I'll sell cricket protein next....
 
mechka_grizli

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What the supplement industry is facing:

INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT: Freight costs internationally have worsened in August. The cost of shipping a container from China to the U.S. has increased 4-7 times since pre-covid numbers, depending on ports. The U.S. and global demand continue to outpace capacity causing wait times in excess of 4 weeks and container cost increases of $1000 every 2 weeks. We’re now running into the holiday season where companies will be increasing inventories which will further exacerbate the problems.

A container from Shanghai to LA has increased from $2,350 to $14,100 with spot purchases in excess of $30,000 per container. The cause: surging global demand, shortage of containers, the Suez Canal blockage, the closing of the Yantian port, COVID issues, lack of employees at ports, shortage of trucks and the increasing trade imbalance.

Most analysts are predicting it will be between mid-2022 and the end of 2022 before we see any relief. The general consensus is that after the market normalizes, freight will not return to where it was. Higher freight costs will be the new norm.
This isn't true unfortunately. I ship globally, massive amounts of product, all from China, and all to LA, and my costs have not risen nowhere near that high. Shipments that use to cost me $1400, now cost me $1700. Shipments that cost me $3500 now cost me $4100
 
DieselNY

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This isn't true unfortunately. I ship globally, massive amounts of product, all from China, and all to LA, and my costs have not risen nowhere near that high. Shipments that use to cost me $1400, now cost me $1700. Shipments that cost me $3500 now cost me $4100
Well this seems to be some sort of odd situation since everyone else is experiencing massive cost increases





"The average price world-wide to ship a 40-foot container has more than quadrupled from a year ago, to $8,399 as of July 1, according to a global pricing index by London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. The measure has surged 53.5% since the first week of May....Listed prices to ship from China to major ports in Europe and the U.S. West Coast are closer to $12,000 a container, by Drewry’s measure, and some companies say they are being charged $20,000 for last-minute agreements to get goods onto outbound vessels."

I'd be interested in learning more why you aren't seeing this with your business.
 
Potbelly

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Yeah cheap blends are always going to keep costs down they put like 1/3rd WPI and then a few others but now WPC is also up so that's going to add to cost of the blend. Egg pricing is stable and glad you mentioned shipping.

Truck load delivery from California to Texas to used to cost like $2800, now it's up to around $13,000. So all these things will be figured into pricing of not only protein but anything else that has to be trucked, which is everything.

PES is perfect example:

(Milk Protein Isolate, Whey Protein Concentrate 80%, Leucine Peptides),

I don't use MPI but with I had a conversation with my CM last year, it's not cheap either. So PES uses MPI, WPC and yea normally thats going to be cheaper than 100% WPI90 but both WPC80 and WPI90 are up in so the only way these blends will still be advantageous from a profit standpoint is to use some really crappy whey and just list "whey protein concentrate" as part of the blend and use one of or blend of wpc 50-60-70... but that must be some crap quality. Then maybe 10% wpi so atleast you can list it on the label. So 90% wpc60 and 10% wpi90.

But truth be told I don't even know know what wpc60 looks like. I've had wpc70 from Supplement Direct back in the 1990s and it was grainy as fk.

From my recollection I think Syntha 6 would be the lowest cost blend to produce since they use so many types in their blends with the expensive ones being only a tiny %. But again, wpc is up now so curious to see what they do. I'm sure they won't need to change since it's just 1/6th of their blend. So a 100% increase in WPC hardly hurts them.

The buzz from some brands I know is that they will lower the protein grams per scoop and possibly number of servings. Say goodbye to 5lb tubs but that dinosaur tub has been slowly going away pre covid anyway. 2lb and 3.5lb will probably be most common.

Whey protein is so insane expensive such that I am just about ready to release my vegan line of proteins which costs a fortune (because of all the natural ingredients and natural flavoring system) but this *fortune* is still cheaper than what it costs me to produce my whey proteins with the current crazy pricing.

Maybe I'll sell cricket protein next....
Why would they get rid of 5lbs. Tubs?
 
mechka_grizli

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Well this seems to be some sort of odd situation since everyone else is experiencing massive cost increases


I'd be interested in learning more why you aren't seeing this with your business.
Maybe their statements are in regard to cost per container. I pay for space in those containers, but I would think that added cost would trickle down to me, and it has, but not in the way these articles are stating.
 
DieselNY

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Maybe their statements are in regard to cost per container. I pay for space in those containers, but I would think that added cost would trickle down to me, and it has, but not in the way these articles are stating.
Ah okay. Yes these guys like Mark fill full containers when they ship. So makes sense your portion had a proportional increase and not the full cost that a full container would cost.
 
BCseacow83

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Why would they get rid of 5lbs. Tubs?
The end user or retail price is going to be too high for most consumers. Think $100-150 a jug territory, very few will still purchase at that price point. Optimum has been doing this for years. They used to have 2lb, 5lb, and 10lb. They then made 4.5, 4, 3.3, and some other random sizes and all attempts were made IMO to make the jugs looks as close to the same as the original sizes.

This has all been going on for years with food, shrinkflation, and producers have attempted to hide buffer it with smaller packages. Take a bag of coffee. They used to be 16oz across the board or larger. They went to 14oz, then 12, then 11.5, then 10 and my wife came home with a 7oz bag the other day. Same thing with the large jugs of coffee. They have all gotten shorter or repackaged with new designs like Maxwell houses cans. Same thing with yogurts they used to be 1 cup for most of them. This is one of the reasons I stick to buying most foods that are priced per lb as I can actually tell what I am spending/getting.


The coming days are really going to allow us all to see the difference between wants and true needs............................
 
Potbelly

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Yea Optimum has been doing for years. Well might be time to stock up on those $30 5 lbers
 
thebigt

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The end user or retail price is going to be too high for most consumers. Think $100-150 a jug territory, very few will still purchase at that price point. Optimum has been doing this for years. They used to have 2lb, 5lb, and 10lb. They then made 4.5, 4, 3.3, and some other random sizes and all attempts were made IMO to make the jugs looks as close to the same as the original sizes.

This has all been going on for years with food, shrinkflation, and producers have attempted to hide buffer it with smaller packages. Take a bag of coffee. They used to be 16oz across the board or larger. They went to 14oz, then 12, then 11.5, then 10 and my wife came home with a 7oz bag the other day. Same thing with the large jugs of coffee. They have all gotten shorter or repackaged with new designs like Maxwell houses cans. Same thing with yogurts they used to be 1 cup for most of them. This is one of the reasons I stick to buying most foods that are priced per lb as I can actually tell what I am spending/getting.


The coming days are really going to allow us all to see the difference between wants and true needs............................
there is SO much truth in this...i give it less than a month and a trip to grocery store is going to inflict more pain than a trip to dentist.
 
LeanEngineer

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I agree!!
Is there a Strong Discount code to help out?
You can use STAYSTRONG for a 5% discount code. Musclemaker will post product specific discount codes in the supplement deals section as well.
 
Nac

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Ben from Morphogen just posted on FB alluding to all this. He also teased some big upcoming project, curious what that is (I'm not on instagram).
 
Segansational

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Other major companies as well. Surprised honestly that it's taken this long for consumers to feel the trickle down.
 
The Solution

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Glazier from Nutrabio told me today
WPC has gone up $2.85 per pound. Nutrabio pays an additional $137,000 per truck load.
That is INSANE.
 
CubsFan312

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AMINO ACIDS: Aminos overall have increased from 5% to 25%. BCAAs, arginine and glutamine are on the rise. NAC is stable, probably because of lower demand due to the crackdown by Amazon, which removed all NAC products.
This is so f*cking stupid. I was wondering why I couldn't find NAC on Amazon. Here's the story behind that:


Maybe I'll sell cricket protein next....
I've seen a ton of vendors switch to milk protein isolate. Personally I blame the food industry for this. They add whey to processed food to add more protein so they can advertise it as having more protein on the label. Then, companies like Gatorade came in and cornered the market and buy up huge supplies of whey to make junk products with no one should be using.

I think we will be eating a lot more veggie protein in the near future. I've been seeing a lot of companies make a big push towards plant based protein powders. Some of them like Vega are mixed with extra BCAAs so you're getting your full amino acids.

But, cricket flour and cricket protein will be coming soon. I've seen a cricket protein bar in a health food store. Crickets are basically a vast unlimited supply and their shells are loaded with protein. They just grind them down and extract the protein, so there's not a lot of cricket left over. I've never tasted any of them, but supposedly the taste is pretty neutral.

According to Wikipedia, crickets are a complete protein, so, we might be looking at a future of drinking bug protein powder.

 
BCseacow83

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This is so f*cking stupid. I was wondering why I couldn't find NAC on Amazon. Here's the story behind that:




I've seen a ton of vendors switch to milk protein isolate. Personally I blame the food industry for this. They add whey to processed food to add more protein so they can advertise it as having more protein on the label. Then, companies like Gatorade came in and cornered the market and buy up huge supplies of whey to make junk products with no one should be using.

I think we will be eating a lot more veggie protein in the near future. I've been seeing a lot of companies make a big push towards plant based protein powders. Some of them like Vega are mixed with extra BCAAs so you're getting your full amino acids.

But, cricket flour and cricket protein will be coming soon. I've seen a cricket protein bar in a health food store. Crickets are basically a vast unlimited supply and their shells are loaded with protein. They just grind them down and extract the protein, so there's not a lot of cricket left over. I've never tasted any of them, but supposedly the taste is pretty neutral.

According to Wikipedia, crickets are a complete protein, so, we might be looking at a future of drinking bug protein powder.

Without capitalism, with all it's warts and faults granted, we would not even have access to 12 different kinds of whey protein. Government cheese byproduct powder in government approved can with black and white label...............if we were lucky.
 
CubsFan312

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Without capitalism, with all it's warts and faults granted, we would not even have access to 12 different kinds of whey protein. Government cheese byproduct powder in government approved can with black and white label...............if we were lucky.
It's just a joke based on the hip hop slogan of CREAM - Cash Rules Everything Around me. Take it easy.
 
SkRaw85

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Get the money, dollar dollar bills yallllllll
 
emiliozapata

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At the end of the day if prices soar maybe people will focus more on nutrition and routines and reap better results. I'm a guilty supplement junkie also, lol.
Learn to forage and farm to make your own supps
 
BCseacow83

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It's just a joke based on the hip hop slogan of CREAM - Cash Rules Everything Around me. Take it easy.
I was taking it easy just making a point that too many seem to miss these days. Not saying you in particular.
 

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Do we know of any quality protein powders made in the USA?
I like Levels Whey Protein. Grass-fed cows and made in the USA. 25g of protein per 32g scoop. I go with unflavored as I'm happy to bypass all of the flavorings found in many other whey products. It is a really clean product, but hardly ever see it mentioned. It's a concentrate, but seems to have a good amino profile and overall high quality. Does it lack something in the muscle-building department, I've wondered?
 
The Solution

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Supply Chain update: The cost to ship a container from China to the U.S. is out of control. I was just quoted $56,000 to ship 2 containers of empty bottles to the U.S. That’s $28,000 per container. 6 months ago that same container cost me less than $3,000. 3 weeks ago it cost $21,000. So it rose $7,000 per container in just a few weeks. The cost has risen 930% this year. This cost will be passed on to thousands of products that we purchase every day. Get ready for some tough times folks.
 
THOR 70

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Supply Chain update: The cost to ship a container from China to the U.S. is out of control. I was just quoted $56,000 to ship 2 containers of empty bottles to the U.S. That’s $28,000 per container. 6 months ago that same container cost me less than $3,000. 3 weeks ago it cost $21,000. So it rose $7,000 per container in just a few weeks. The cost has risen 930% this year. This cost will be passed on to thousands of products that we purchase every day. Get ready for some tough times folks.
We are effed. Really hope everyone starts prepping a bit.
 
DieselNY

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We are effed. Really hope everyone starts prepping a bit.
We are more than effed. Here's the update I just posted today on FB;

Ahhh more supply chain craziness. Once again thanks for Mark Glazier for always giving everyone like 2 week warning before the Hanmer drops so I put in huge PO's to stay ahead of the curve. Lol

...Like it did..today. Latest whey increase is + $1.50/lb I'm being told. . And flavoring ingredients is up too!!

The is only half the issue. The supply as we know is scarce and getting worse. A major protein manufacturer that typically processes over one million pounds of milk a day is currently in a sold out situation with an ETA of “I’ll have no idea...I'll get back to you".....

.... don't call us...well call you. Lol

So now some shady stuff will be going on, (even more than what goes on now) including amino spiking and cutting protein powder with maltodextrin/dextrose etc like a ***well known brand*** used to do 7 to 8 years ago.

Mark my words if brands are still planing to sell 5lb tubs then the majority of them will be like $100+++ at GNC etc. (Some brands will still hold on though). But I'm banking on seeing 5lb tubs eventually phase out..IMHO..

Happy Friday!!
 
DieselNY

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Glazier from Nutrabio told me today
WPC has gone up $2.85 per pound. Nutrabio pays an additional $137,000 per truck load.
That is INSANE.
We now pay another $75,000 per truck on top of that $137,000 increase recently.
 
THOR 70

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We are more than effed. Here's the update I just posted today on FB;

Ahhh more supply chain craziness. Once again thanks for Mark Glazier for always giving everyone like 2 week warning before the Hanmer drops so I put in huge PO's to stay ahead of the curve. Lol

...Like it did..today. Latest whey increase is + $1.50/lb I'm being told. . And flavoring ingredients is up too!!

The is only half the issue. The supply as we know is scarce and getting worse. A major protein manufacturer that typically processes over one million pounds of milk a day is currently in a sold out situation with an ETA of “I’ll have no idea...I'll get back to you".....

.... don't call us...well call you. Lol

So now some shady stuff will be going on, (even more than what goes on now) including amino spiking and cutting protein powder with maltodextrin/dextrose etc like a ***well known brand*** used to do 7 to 8 years ago.

Mark my words if brands are still planing to sell 5lb tubs then the majority of them will be like $100+++ at GNC etc. (Some brands will still hold on though). But I'm banking on seeing 5lb tubs eventually phase out..IMHO..

Happy Friday!!
Messed up man. They are dismantling this country piece by piece. So obvious
 
BCseacow83

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Messed up man. They are dismantling this country piece by piece. So obvious
The worst part: the average person is going to expect the same idiots that caused this mess to solve it and those same idiots will act like they are f**king hero's for saving us from their own doing.
 
THOR 70

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The worst part: the average person is going to expect the same idiots that caused this mess to solve it and those same idiots will act like they are f**king hero's for saving us from their own doing.
We need to look past the idiot puppets to the evil genius psychopaths pulling the strings. I feel a righteous anger brewing
 
BCseacow83

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We need to look past the idiot puppets to the evil genius psychopaths pulling the strings. I feel a righteous anger brewing
I alternate that with a mix of defeated hopeless melancholy...........................just depends on how much energy I have that day. lol

One thing is for sure they have proper mind f***ed the vast majority of us the last two years....................I doubt many people have made it through 100% unscathed. It's a shame.

Not that I'm dwelling on it or anything lol.
 
Cheeky Monkey

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I'm going to stock up on creatine.
 
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here is a major issue that everyone should plan for that will exacerbate the problems we’re all currently experiencing. The Chinese New Year is right around the corner. During Thanksgiving here in the U.S., 50 million Americans will migrate across the country for a weekend. For the Chinese New Year, 385 million workers will travel home for weeks. Most Chinese factories will close down for 2-4 weeks so if you think price and availability of raw ingredients are bad now, just you wait.
If you are an experienced importer you know what that means, start planning in August so your business in not disrupted in February. But this year, it’s a lot more difficult to plan because raw material availability is already stretched paper thin. So expect the worst and plan for it.
Maltodextrin: supply is extremely tight and the price is going up.
Dextrose: supply is non-existent, if you don’t have any now you won’t for a while.
Fructose: Almost as bad as dextrose. Price is up and supply is gone.
Flavors: Lead times are increasing drastically and price is on the rise. Maltodextrin is a major carrier for flavor systems so with supply of malto tight, flavors are following.
Citric and malic acid continue to be short with price double what it was last year.
Labels: paper is in short supply so labels price is on the rise. Expect and extra 2-3 weeks lead time.
Plastics: Lead times are still bad and price is getting worse for both imported and domestic bottles. I paid and extra $0.50 per 100mm cap this week just so I could keep product stocked for my customers. If you are using glass you are f*ck’d
I’ve been warning about citrulline for a while, well it looks like it’s hitting critical mass now as the price is drastically on the rise and supply is very spotty. Quotes coming in for October are 40-50% higher than current pricing which is already at a high.
Whey is getting worse and might continue this way through Q2. WPI contracts are $1.50 more per pound than last month and no one is quoting past December. That’s $75,000 more for a truckload than last month and $200,000 more than Q1. WPC is no better. It’s the wild west for whey protein. The problem with whey is fourfold: China continues to buy up U.S. whey to feed their pigs, cheese manufacturing is down so whey follows, freight is through the roof and packaging is headed towards an all-time high.
As sourcing whey protein becomes more difficult and the price continues to skyrocket, the cheaters will start popping up again. Protein spiking and diluting will no doubt be on the rise. But even the cheaters will have problem this time around as there is no dextrose or malto to dilute their protein with. Creatine is so expensive they can't use it for amino spiking as are many aminos. Blend it down with cheaper WPC, not worth it, it’s not that much cheaper. Even the cheaters are having a tough time right now. But if you are a consumer buying protein at retail during these times, you should definitely be checking the protein ratio before purchasing. It’s getting harder to spike and dilute but cheaters will always fine away
 

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At a certain price point, people will buy less. For me I’ve found protein bars and foods to be a better deal and gone that route instead.

eventually the market will reset. Maybe the high prices will spur farmers back into the supply chain
 
BCseacow83

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At a certain price point, people will buy less. For me I’ve found protein bars and foods to be a better deal and gone that route instead.

eventually the market will reset. Maybe the high prices will spur farmers back into the supply chain
I appreciate the optimism.................sometimes I forget what that is lol.
 
Hyde

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At a certain price point, people will buy less. For me I’ve found protein bars and foods to be a better deal and gone that route instead.

eventually the market will reset. Maybe the high prices will spur farmers back into the supply chain
These are my thoughts, to an extent. I mean many great strength athletes and physiques were built without any of the modern supplements. If supplements get scarce/too expensive, demand/consumption will just decrease. The problem is dire for the industry, but not really for the consumer in the context of these being luxury items.

Now, if we’re talking about the price of necessities like food, that’s different of course.
 
BCseacow83

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Is there a situation where the cost of raw whey the chinese feed their pigs gets to a point where they find an alternative food source and we see the demand for whey drop through the floor overnight? Thus lowering the price considerably????

Hey, a guy dream right? lol

I agree that food is always the gold standard for protein but traditionally price per gram of protein has always been cheaper with powders vs wholefood with a few rare exceptions.
 
DieselNY

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Is there a situation where the cost of raw whey the chinese feed their pigs gets to a point where they find an alternative food source and we see the demand for whey drop through the floor overnight? Thus lowering the price considerably????

Hey, a guy dream right? lol

I agree that food is always the gold standard for protein but traditionally price per gram of protein has always been cheaper with powders vs wholefood with a few rare exceptions.
The problem is not China it's our damn US diary companies who make the product here. They're only giving us like 10% of the remaining product and sending 90% of it to China because the Chinese pay 3 times what we pay here in America. Capitalism at its best.

That being said you'd think at some point a) the Chinese figure out a cheaper alternative or need less and/or b) US manufacturers can produce more protein. My concern is if they even are able to improve production, what makes us think they will drop the price?

Brands and contract manufacturers will just have to buy less and trigger the dairy industry to drop prices. It doesn't look good either way. Sorta like when people drive less, take mass transit or carpool when gas prices go up and then the prices drop as a result.

Capitalism at its best.
 
BCseacow83

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The problem is not China it's our damn US diary companies who make the product here. They're only giving us like 10% of the remaining product and sending 90% of it to China because the Chinese pay 3 times what we pay here in America. Capitalism at its best.

That being said you'd think at some point a) the Chinese figure out a cheaper alternative or need less and/or b) US manufacturers can produce more protein. My concern is if they even are able to improve production, what makes us think they will drop the price?

Brands and contract manufacturers will just have to buy less and trigger the dairy industry to drop prices. It doesn't look good either way. Sorta like when people drive less, take mass transit or carpool when gas prices go up and then the prices drop as a result.

Capitalism at its best.
China will buy 90% at a higher price than domestic companies will pay, how does that not make China's demand the problem or cause? Call it whatever you want their demand and willingness to pay top dollar is the driving force behind the table scraps the rest of the customers are fighting over. Expecting any company with a finite supply to not sell to the top bidder makes zero sense. If you had 100 bottles and one customer will pay a higher price you wouldn't sell to them? Really?
 
DieselNY

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China will buy 90% at a higher price than domestic companies will pay, how does that not make China's demand the problem or cause? Call it whatever you want their demand and willingness to pay top dollar is the driving force behind the table scraps the rest of the customers are fighting over. Expecting any company with a finite supply to not sell to the top bidder makes zero sense. If you had 100 bottles and one customer will pay a higher price you wouldn't sell to them? Really?
Still comes down to US companies looking for the quickest profit (nothing wrong with that) and alienating US brands who may at some point seek alternatives be it vegan or maybe this will help the smaller dairy companies become major players. Hope so.

I already know major US brands who will NOT buy from these companies ever again because of this nonsense. This is good and bad. Good because maybe prices can come down and bad because brands will be doing shady crap with lower quality raws and fillers and misleading you on their labels.

I'm not mad at China. I get mad at China when they do shady **** that we can't compete with and have tainted raws. They just need protein and who the hell knows who set the price they pay. US dairy companies are fkin the US brands. That is all there is too it.

Now you can see how important China is with regards to raw marital suppliers. That's why so many products are so affordable, US brands need China. But they don't make whey protein or atleast not like the US can so what does that do? Leaves it up to the US diary companies to fuk the US brands and customers.

I don't "blame" US dairy companies, hey its business but it's leaving a massive bad taste in the mouth of all the US brands and contract manufacturers, NONE of which are mad at China. Trust me.
 
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Supply chain update! Prices are coming down for many/most raw materials made in China. Citrulline has dropped back to about $20/kg & should hit $16-$17/kg before Summer! The only notable exception is Creatine which is under CCP production restrictions (well essentially, the precursors to make it are now tightly regulated by Chinese authorities so it’s going to be super-tight & expensive for awhile). Whey protein is another exception as it’s “not Chinese” per se.

Most brokers are inventory heavy both stateside & China side as manufacturers are canceling PO’s here due to lack of line time availability. So an excess of goods coupled with a decrease in demand equates to prices dropping. Supply & demand!

So you should see prices on many/most raw materials start to dip.

A new pricing sheet with pricing revised DOWNWARD to reflect the sudden decrease in the cost of Citrulline which makes up around 55% of 3DPB. The price bump up was temporary due to Citrulline hitting >$27/kg & that we would reduce the price of 3DPB when & if Citrulline prices start to drop.

@DieselNY
 
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Supply chain update! Prices are coming down for many/most raw materials made in China. Citrulline has dropped back to about $20/kg & should hit $16-$17/kg before Summer! The only notable exception is Creatine which is under CCP production restrictions (well essentially, the precursors to make it are now tightly regulated by Chinese authorities so it’s going to be super-tight & expensive for awhile). Whey protein is another exception as it’s “not Chinese” per se.

Most brokers are inventory heavy both stateside & China side as manufacturers are canceling PO’s here due to lack of line time availability. So an excess of goods coupled with a decrease in demand equates to prices dropping. Supply & demand!

So you should see prices on many/most raw materials start to dip.

A new pricing sheet with pricing revised DOWNWARD to reflect the sudden decrease in the cost of Citrulline which makes up around 55% of 3DPB. The price bump up was temporary due to Citrulline hitting >$27/kg & that we would reduce the price of 3DPB when & if Citrulline prices start to drop.

@DieselNY
Yup!
 
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BCseacow83

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From a guy who opened a retail store less than 6 weeks ago this is FANTASTIC news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm taking the rest of the day off!!!!




















-Realizes there are no employees and decides to stay at the store for the day. lol
 
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Per Mark Glazier:


Dietary Supplement Supply Chain update:

The impending disruption is due to a crippling shortage of sunflower. Russia and Ukraine collectively produce about 60% of the world’s sunflower supply with Ukraine exporting about half of the world’s sunflower oil supply. Collectively they produce almost 31 million tons annually compared to the next highest producing country, Argentina, at only 3.8 million tons. So what does this have to do with supplement supply chain? Sunflower lecithin is used in the manufacture of whey protein powders. It used to instantize the powder so it mixes better without clumping. Soy was widely used years ago however, the market started to move toward sunflower because it is not an allergen or genetically modified like soy, so it offers a cleaner label for consumers.

The supply of sunflower lecithin has dried up. Some manufactures quote having enough to get them through the year, but many are already running low and readying their customers of the impending shortage. So if you thought whey protein was in crises now, just wait a few more months. As sunflower becomes scarcer, dairy manufacturers will be forced to switch back to soy lecithin. Brands will have to reprint labels with updated allergen and GMO claims.
Whey protein isolate (WPI) is at an all-time high, up about 3X since the same time last year.
We are getting to the point where consumers are leaving whey protein on the shelf in search of more economic protein sources. Whey protein concentrate seems to have leveled off at its current high which 3 times higher than Q1 2021. WPI however, is still climbing and we have no idea when it will level off or start dropping.
 
Segansational

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Who would've known that sunflower is a component in the process? It's always amazing to me that so much more goes into the manufacturing of goods / raw materials you wouldn't think about. And it also just shows how dependent industries are on world economies.
 

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I’m also wondering about the palm oil situation. Used in many protein bars. Indonesia banned the export of it and they were a major supplier
 
DieselNY

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Also the damn bird flu just tripled powered egg whites cost and thus instantized egg whites for protein powder. One well known egg producer in the US (who is known for their egg proteins) was selling it at $6/lb by the pallet then post bird flu is $19/lb only a few weeks ago.... They also wont have all their flock back for another 2 years!!. it wiped out 5,000,000 birds! They also had to fire like 150 people after this. say hello to $10/carton of eggs soon and then when back it will be slow and hard to get and lead times will be crazy as I doubt they will hire the same amount of people back. I think 18,000,000 birds were wiped out from various producers.

Also flax prices are going up as well as all the rain and floods wiped out the entire crops.

So its all these non covid or supply chain related craziness (war etc) that just keeps piling on this sh*t show...seems 2020 does not want to end.
 

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