Anyone worried if Corona virus keeps spreading the gyms will shut down?

Hilltern

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Saw this in my YouTube feed and thought of this thread for obvious reasons:

That was painful to watch. It’s like Rogan says - no one wants to have a long form discussion anymore (and it goes for both sides).
 
HIT4ME

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I’m pretty sure that the 0.1% i just mentioned used estimated total flu cases, not just confirmed positives, but still, even that said, 0.4 is still 4x 0.1.
All of the flu numbers are estimated. No doctor is actually reporting all their cases, and a lot of doctors aren't even really testing because it isn't always necessary. The CDC estimates there were something like 17M cases that showed up in the hospital and 35M cases in total, but they're both just mathematical creations. At least this is how it was explained to me in an article and by a couple doctor friends of mine. All of the sources have suggested if they counted like with Covid, the actual death rate would be half that.
 
HIT4ME

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That was painful to watch. It’s like Rogan says - no one wants to have a long form discussion anymore (and it goes for both sides).
I can agree with that. We create a model of the world and we don't like to have that challenged. I mean, look at what used to happen when someone would suggest that the Earth wasn't exactly at the center of the universe....
 

Hilltern

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I can agree with that. We create a model of the world and we don't like to have that challenged. I mean, look at what used to happen when someone would suggest that the Earth wasn't exactly at the center of the universe....
It’s been trending this way for years. It’s worse now because developments like social media don’t mix well with our archaic system of government (not necessarily bad) and human nature (tribalism).
 
thebigt

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I can agree with that. We create a model of the world and we don't like to have that challenged. I mean, look at what used to happen when someone would suggest that the Earth wasn't exactly at the center of the universe....
do you remember the original models projecting deaths from coronavirus as it was called back then?
 
muscleupcrohn

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All of the flu numbers are estimated. No doctor is actually reporting all their cases, and a lot of doctors aren't even really testing because it isn't always necessary. The CDC estimates there were something like 17M cases that showed up in the hospital and 35M cases in total, but they're both just mathematical creations. At least this is how it was explained to me in an article and by a couple doctor friends of mine. All of the sources have suggested if they counted like with Covid, the actual death rate would be half that.
Yeah, I used 35m in my flu calculation, which was estimated total cases. I’d assume that number is intended to assume how many total cases they think there were, not only the reported or confirmed ones. Either way, at least 4x higher is certainly not less dangerous lol. We can debate all day about small differences, but it’s impossible to say it’s not worse than the flu, and by at least a fair bit.
 
muscleupcrohn

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I can agree with that. We create a model of the world and we don't like to have that challenged. I mean, look at what used to happen when someone would suggest that the Earth wasn't exactly at the center of the universe....
No no no, the earth isn’t the center of the universe, I am.


/s
 
thebigt

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What do you mean “as it was called back then?” That’s still what it’s called...
hardly anyone still uses the term coronavirus, it has evolved into covid19, unless i am missing something?
 
HIT4ME

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do you remember the original models projecting deaths from coronavirus as it was called back then?
Back then? You mean 4 months ago?

Haha
 
muscleupcrohn

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hardly anyone still uses the term coronavirus, it has evolved into covid19, unless i am missing something?
And please tell me what COVID stands for. That’s like saying nobody calls the MLB Major League Baseball anymore. They’re the same term.
 
thebigt

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And please tell me what COVID stands for. That’s like saying nobody calls the MLB Major League Baseball anymore. They’re the same term.
lol...i never said the meaning isn't the same, only that terminology has changed-how many call it sars-cov-2?
 
thebigt

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Back then? You mean 4 months ago?

Haha
exactly...i can't really pinpoint when coronavirus was no longer what everyone was calling it and covid 19 became the name....go back to the start of this thread for reference.
 

Hilltern

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exactly...i can't really pinpoint when coronavirus was no longer what everyone was calling it and covid 19 became the name....go back to the start of this thread for reference.
It’s and HIV/AIDS thing. One is the virus the other is the disease. That’s all.
 
muscleupcrohn

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He was joking about that bit lol and though Joe can be pretty dumb at times he admits it and doesn’t claim to be an expert on things.
Except he then tried to claim the experts agreed with him, when they didn't. They hadn't agreed on that in months. Joe was months behind on his info.
 
dixonk

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It is fairly hard to take any of these numbers seriously when these types of accounts pop up every single day:


Then my wife is watching a doctor confessing on video that the hospital is telling him to list all deaths as COVID.

Then my friend, an ER physician, who told me that anyone that showed up DOA at the hospital was automatically listed as a COVID death.

I am not denying there is a virus. I am not denying that it is serious. I am skeptical of the reporting, skeptical of the numbers, skeptical of the sources doing the reporting, and I absolutely do not agree with the lockdown measures that were implemented.

The health experts have waffled on measures and how the virus spreads from the beginning. How can someone take them serious when their message always flip flops and you have different health “experts” touting different preventative measures, different treatment options, and on and on and on.

Remember when they said it doesn’t spread human to human, then they said masks are ineffective and we shouldn’t be wearing them because medical people need them, then they said it doesn’t survive on inorganic surfaces and now it does, then they said it can travel 28 ft through the air and then they said it’s 6ft. Then they said large crowds are dangerous and then they said protesting didn’t spread the virus. Now they are saying that kids don’t spread it.
 

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Except he then tried to claim the experts agreed with him, when they didn't. They hadn't agreed on that in months. Joe was months behind on his info.
I didn’t catch that part I just saw that he was clearly trying to get Burr heated. Either way he has some incredibly smart people on and I listen to them, not what he says lol. Like I see that the Vitamin D link that Dr. Rhonda Patrick was talking about is being reported on more now.
 
HIT4ME

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It is fairly hard to take any of these numbers seriously when these types of accounts pop up every single day:


Then my wife is watching a doctor confessing on video that the hospital is telling him to list all deaths as COVID.

Then my friend, an ER physician, who told me that anyone that showed up DOA at the hospital was automatically listed as a COVID death.

I am not denying there is a virus. I am not denying that it is serious. I am skeptical of the reporting, skeptical of the numbers, skeptical of the sources doing the reporting, and I absolutely do not agree with the lockdown measures that were implemented.

The health experts have waffled on measures and how the virus spreads from the beginning. How can someone take them serious when their message always flip flops and you have different health “experts” touting different preventative measures, different treatment options, and on and on and on.

Remember when they said it doesn’t spread human to human, then they said masks are ineffective and we shouldn’t be wearing them because medical people need them, then they said it doesn’t survive on inorganic surfaces and now it does, then they said it can travel 28 ft through the air and then they said it’s 6ft. Then they said large crowds are dangerous and then they said protesting didn’t spread the virus. Now they are saying that kids don’t spread it.
Ok, I can understand questioning and skepticism; but you are also using a lot of false logic and having expectations that are out of touch with reality. I don't mean this to be offensive, a lot of people share your approach.

You have to remember the key here. This is a novel virus. This means it is never before seen. There were no "experts" in the beginning. They were making educated guesses. They didn't have the data they needed, so they had to rely on data from past experiences that may or may not have shared similarities. Expecting someone to be right, just because they claim some sort of authority, is not a sign of free thinking - it's a symptom of being led by others.

And the bigger issue here gets back to what MuscleupCrohn is saying, people need to be taught to think with reason. Because someone says one thing when they lack data, and then as the data comes in they determine they were wrong and they say so and do the opposite - doesn't mean what they are saying now is wrong.

That would be like saying, "Look at the authorities. First they say the world is flat. Now they say the world is round. Then they said the Sun travelled around the Earth, now the Earth travels around the Sun - but the moon still travels around the Earth somehow. We just can't believe anything they say."

I don't know where you live, but a lot of the reports of doctors telling friends that all deaths are being reported as Covid seem to contradict a lot of the reports I'm getting from doctor friends. I live in MA and a lot of the surrounding areas have been the most heavily infected areas in the country. Yet, the hospitals in my immediate area have a very low rate of covid. The rate is so low that most of the time, the doctors are pretty confident that the majority of the people they are seeing aren't infected with covid, but with symptoms they test anyway and the vast majority of those tests are coming back negative. Still, the death rate in this hospital system is near 10%. And this isn't just reports from my friends, my mom is sick right now and she called into this hospital system and was basically told it was highly unlikely she had covid and got tested yesterday (waiting to hear back). She has all the symptoms, but I doubt it is Covid as well.

And keep in mind here, the big conspiracy is that hospitals are incented to over-report covid because they get more funding for patients with Covid than without right now. Well, how much more funding do they get for a dead guy with Covid? He is already dead, what treatments does the hospital plan to administer?

This conspiracy would actually suggest that hospitals have an incentive to diagnose a PATIENT with Covid (which is counter to the hospital system in MA, which I explained above, and which is one of the most heavily hit states in the country), but not to report their death as Covid. And if this is the case, we would be artificially inflating the denominator, which would be artificially suppressing the death rate (meaning the death rate is higher than suggested). But how does this match with the idea that the denominator has been artificially suppressed (we aren't counting everyone who has Covid)? I thought the argument was that the death rate was so much lower because of all the uncounted cases?

But this isn't an attack on you, I don't mean it to come out like that - because skepticism of the media is very valid. I am all about fake news. The media plays both sides. They feed one side what they want, feed the other what they want, and then use that to their advantage. I mean, where do you think you first heard about the idea that hospitals were being incented to fuark with the reported? It wasn't your doctor friend I bet. It's been in the media for months. And he heard it there and is probably looking for evidence in his world to fulfill his beliefs. "This guy came in DOA and we said he had covid." Well, that may be a belief, or maybe he wasn't aware that he had previously been diagnosed, or had the symptoms and was having sudden respiratory failure. But it appears to match his narrative - and I don't doubt has SOME truth to it, as hospitals are businesses and need to make money.

Or maybe all the numbers are made up and I am completely wrong and you are right to be skeptical - but I don't really see any data for that, because our data closely matches the data in a lot of other countries, some of which clearly don't share the same goals that we do (so it's unlikely they would be in a conspiracy with us).
 
HIT4ME

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I didn’t catch that part I just saw that he was clearly trying to get Burr heated. Either way he has some incredibly smart people on and I listen to them, not what he says lol. Like I see that the Vitamin D link that Dr. Rhonda Patrick was talking about is being reported on more now.
There are currently around 20 studies on Covid and Vitamin D. Correlation has been established pretty convincingly IMO. The correlation is strong enough that a more recent analysis determined it was unlikely to be JUST correlation based on the data.

Given that you can buy 400 pills with 10,000 iu of vitamin D for $15 - I don't see any reason that anyone without a conflicting health issue wouldn't be taking it right now.

Vitamin C isn't as heavily correlated with outcomes, but there was a study in February showing that it could reduce time spent on a ventilator by 14-28% - which is 1-2 days per week, which could be life saving IMO.
 

Hilltern

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There are currently around 20 studies on Covid and Vitamin D. Correlation has been established pretty convincingly IMO. The correlation is strong enough that a more recent analysis determined it was unlikely to be JUST correlation based on the data.

Given that you can buy 400 pills with 10,000 iu of vitamin D for $15 - I don't see any reason that anyone without a conflicting health issue wouldn't be taking it right now.

Vitamin C isn't as heavily correlated with outcomes, but there was a study in February showing that it could reduce time spent on a ventilator by 14-28% - which is 1-2 days per week, which could be life saving IMO.
Exactly this. It is so cheap and an extra 5000-10000 IUs for a little while won’t harm most people. Hell most people are actually deficient. I haven’t seen that Vitamin C study though. Do you happen to remember how much was taken or have a source?
 
thebigt

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Exactly this. It is so cheap and an extra 5000-10000 IUs for a little while won’t harm most people. Hell most people are actually deficient. I haven’t seen that Vitamin C study though. Do you happen to remember how much was taken or have a source?
i agree, d and c are part of my daily routine and have been for some time.
 
dixonk

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Ok, I can understand questioning and skepticism; but you are also using a lot of false logic and having expectations that are out of touch with reality. I don't mean this to be offensive, a lot of people share your approach.

You have to remember the key here. This is a novel virus. This means it is never before seen. There were no "experts" in the beginning. They were making educated guesses. They didn't have the data they needed, so they had to rely on data from past experiences that may or may not have shared similarities. Expecting someone to be right, just because they claim some sort of authority, is not a sign of free thinking - it's a symptom of being led by others.

And the bigger issue here gets back to what MuscleupCrohn is saying, people need to be taught to think with reason. Because someone says one thing when they lack data, and then as the data comes in they determine they were wrong and they say so and do the opposite - doesn't mean what they are saying now is wrong.

That would be like saying, "Look at the authorities. First they say the world is flat. Now they say the world is round. Then they said the Sun travelled around the Earth, now the Earth travels around the Sun - but the moon still travels around the Earth somehow. We just can't believe anything they say."

I don't know where you live, but a lot of the reports of doctors telling friends that all deaths are being reported as Covid seem to contradict a lot of the reports I'm getting from doctor friends. I live in MA and a lot of the surrounding areas have been the most heavily infected areas in the country. Yet, the hospitals in my immediate area have a very low rate of covid. The rate is so low that most of the time, the doctors are pretty confident that the majority of the people they are seeing aren't infected with covid, but with symptoms they test anyway and the vast majority of those tests are coming back negative. Still, the death rate in this hospital system is near 10%. And this isn't just reports from my friends, my mom is sick right now and she called into this hospital system and was basically told it was highly unlikely she had covid and got tested yesterday (waiting to hear back). She has all the symptoms, but I doubt it is Covid as well.

And keep in mind here, the big conspiracy is that hospitals are incented to over-report covid because they get more funding for patients with Covid than without right now. Well, how much more funding do they get for a dead guy with Covid? He is already dead, what treatments does the hospital plan to administer?

This conspiracy would actually suggest that hospitals have an incentive to diagnose a PATIENT with Covid (which is counter to the hospital system in MA, which I explained above, and which is one of the most heavily hit states in the country), but not to report their death as Covid. And if this is the case, we would be artificially inflating the denominator, which would be artificially suppressing the death rate (meaning the death rate is higher than suggested). But how does this match with the idea that the denominator has been artificially suppressed (we aren't counting everyone who has Covid)? I thought the argument was that the death rate was so much lower because of all the uncounted cases?

But this isn't an attack on you, I don't mean it to come out like that - because skepticism of the media is very valid. I am all about fake news. The media plays both sides. They feed one side what they want, feed the other what they want, and then use that to their advantage. I mean, where do you think you first heard about the idea that hospitals were being incented to fuark with the reported? It wasn't your doctor friend I bet. It's been in the media for months. And he heard it there and is probably looking for evidence in his world to fulfill his beliefs. "This guy came in DOA and we said he had covid." Well, that may be a belief, or maybe he wasn't aware that he had previously been diagnosed, or had the symptoms and was having sudden respiratory failure. But it appears to match his narrative - and I don't doubt has SOME truth to it, as hospitals are businesses and need to make money.

Or maybe all the numbers are made up and I am completely wrong and you are right to be skeptical - but I don't really see any data for that, because our data closely matches the data in a lot of other countries, some of which clearly don't share the same goals that we do (so it's unlikely they would be in a conspiracy with us).
Props for articulating your point and making a point without throwing out a bunch of numbers and being condescending to a counter viewpoint. A lot of good points in your message there.
 
dixonk

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I do have to add that my location may very well be a determining factor in my skepticism. We haven’t really been hit with it. When I go out it’s life as usual. Only people wearing masks is food services and hospitals. Bars and gyms are open and we barely shut down, if at all. From where I am sitting and going by what’s in front of my eyes it rightfully so looks over exaggerated.
 
thebigt

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I do have to add that my location may very well be a determining factor in my skepticism. We haven’t really been hit with it. When I go out it’s life as usual. Only people wearing masks is food services and hospitals. Bars and gyms are open and we barely shut down, if at all. From where I am sitting and going by what’s in front of my eyes it rightfully so looks over exaggerated.
(y)
 
muscleupcrohn

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I didn’t catch that part I just saw that he was clearly trying to get Burr heated. Either way he has some incredibly smart people on and I listen to them, not what he says lol. Like I see that the Vitamin D link that Dr. Rhonda Patrick was talking about is being reported on more now.
I'm telling you he did. I get that he's no expert, so him joking is whatever, but don't incorrectly cite experts to defend your bad argument like he did. Oh well.
 
muscleupcrohn

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Props for articulating your point and making a point without throwing out a bunch of numbers and being condescending to a counter viewpoint. A lot of good points in your message there.
Nothing about your "counter viewpoints" undermine the general trend and data though. People keep bringing up SLIGHT changes in death counts (a few percentage points at most), as if that somehow undermines the overwhelming consensus of data. Also, you (people arguing against the data) have some unverifiable n=1 anecdotes from people, which isn't exactly good or useful data. I can make up whatever I want to make up on FB/Insta/Twitter/here. Not to mention that it's not JUST the US that we're talking about, but literally every country in the world (besides China and Russia) that are in general consensus about masks, and about the death rate being at least 0.4%, if not closer to 1%. They're ALL lying? Countries that can't agree on anything are all suddenly in agreement on this? Hell, even Saudi Arabia is DRASTICALLY cutting down on the number of people who can make the pilgrimage to Mecca this year. IIRC, that's literally the holiest site in the Muslim religion. What, you think that Saudi Arabia is in cahoots on a conspiracy with the US, Israel, etc? I think not.

For example, a 3-5% change/reduction in reported deaths doesn't somehow invalidate ALL the data, or the conclusions being drawn from said data. Only changes of literal orders of magnitude would do what some people claim, that is, invalidate the data.

If someone uses bad math, and doesn't know how a denominator in a fraction works, then makes fun of "common core math" while using their bad math to claim/conclude that COVID is BS compared to the normal flu, damn right I'm going to be condescending to them when they repeatedly insist on ignoring my correcting them on multiple occasions.
 
muscleupcrohn

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Nothing about your "counter viewpoints" undermine the general trend and data though. People keep bringing up SLIGHT changes in death counts (a few percentage points at most), as if that somehow undermines the overwhelming consensus of data. Also, you (people arguing against the data) have some unverifiable n=1 anecdotes from people, which isn't exactly good or useful data. I can make up whatever I want to make up on FB/Insta/Twitter/here. Not to mention that it's not JUST the US that we're talking about, but literally every country in the world (besides China and Russia) that are in general consensus about masks, and about the death rate being at least 0.4%, if not closer to 1%. They're ALL lying? Countries that can't agree on anything are all suddenly in agreement on this? Hell, even Saudi Arabia is DRASTICALLY cutting down on the number of people who can make the pilgrimage to Mecca this year. IIRC, that's literally the holiest site in the Muslim religion. What, you think that Saudi Arabia is in cahoots on a conspiracy with the US, Israel, etc? I think not.

For example, a 3-5% change/reduction in reported deaths doesn't somehow invalidate ALL the data, or the conclusions being drawn from said data. Only changes of literal orders of magnitude would do what some people claim, that is, invalidate the data.

If someone uses bad math, and doesn't know how a denominator in a fraction works, then makes fun of "common core math" while using their bad math to claim/conclude that COVID is BS compared to the normal flu, damn right I'm going to be condescending to them when they repeatedly insist on ignoring my correcting them on multiple occasions.
To elaborate on my point of slight changes in data not undermining the larger points and conclusions:

Did you know that in 2015, someone looking back at data realized that, in 1912, over 100 years ago, Heinie Zimmerman actually won the Triple Crown, because the RBIs from that season were counted incorrectly (by a few RBI at the most, but enough to change the results).

So, what people ITT are doing with regards to slight changes in COVID death counts, would be like using this instance of a missed Triple Crown to say that maybe Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb weren't so great, because the data we have of their stats "isn't reliable," even though the changes are very small in magnitude and practical relevance/significance. There is actually some debate over how many career RBI Ruth has, within a handful of total RBI over like 20 seasons, but that doesn't change the general conclusion of how good Ruth was, just like slight changes in COVID data doesn't change or undermine the general trend/conclusions.

https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2015/03/heine-zimmerman-1912-triple-crown/
 
muscleupcrohn

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Ok, I can understand questioning and skepticism; but you are also using a lot of false logic and having expectations that are out of touch with reality. I don't mean this to be offensive, a lot of people share your approach.

You have to remember the key here. This is a novel virus. This means it is never before seen. There were no "experts" in the beginning. They were making educated guesses. They didn't have the data they needed, so they had to rely on data from past experiences that may or may not have shared similarities. Expecting someone to be right, just because they claim some sort of authority, is not a sign of free thinking - it's a symptom of being led by others.

And the bigger issue here gets back to what MuscleupCrohn is saying, people need to be taught to think with reason. Because someone says one thing when they lack data, and then as the data comes in they determine they were wrong and they say so and do the opposite - doesn't mean what they are saying now is wrong.

That would be like saying, "Look at the authorities. First they say the world is flat. Now they say the world is round. Then they said the Sun travelled around the Earth, now the Earth travels around the Sun - but the moon still travels around the Earth somehow. We just can't believe anything they say."

I don't know where you live, but a lot of the reports of doctors telling friends that all deaths are being reported as Covid seem to contradict a lot of the reports I'm getting from doctor friends. I live in MA and a lot of the surrounding areas have been the most heavily infected areas in the country. Yet, the hospitals in my immediate area have a very low rate of covid. The rate is so low that most of the time, the doctors are pretty confident that the majority of the people they are seeing aren't infected with covid, but with symptoms they test anyway and the vast majority of those tests are coming back negative. Still, the death rate in this hospital system is near 10%. And this isn't just reports from my friends, my mom is sick right now and she called into this hospital system and was basically told it was highly unlikely she had covid and got tested yesterday (waiting to hear back). She has all the symptoms, but I doubt it is Covid as well.

And keep in mind here, the big conspiracy is that hospitals are incented to over-report covid because they get more funding for patients with Covid than without right now. Well, how much more funding do they get for a dead guy with Covid? He is already dead, what treatments does the hospital plan to administer?

This conspiracy would actually suggest that hospitals have an incentive to diagnose a PATIENT with Covid (which is counter to the hospital system in MA, which I explained above, and which is one of the most heavily hit states in the country), but not to report their death as Covid. And if this is the case, we would be artificially inflating the denominator, which would be artificially suppressing the death rate (meaning the death rate is higher than suggested). But how does this match with the idea that the denominator has been artificially suppressed (we aren't counting everyone who has Covid)? I thought the argument was that the death rate was so much lower because of all the uncounted cases?

But this isn't an attack on you, I don't mean it to come out like that - because skepticism of the media is very valid. I am all about fake news. The media plays both sides. They feed one side what they want, feed the other what they want, and then use that to their advantage. I mean, where do you think you first heard about the idea that hospitals were being incented to fuark with the reported? It wasn't your doctor friend I bet. It's been in the media for months. And he heard it there and is probably looking for evidence in his world to fulfill his beliefs. "This guy came in DOA and we said he had covid." Well, that may be a belief, or maybe he wasn't aware that he had previously been diagnosed, or had the symptoms and was having sudden respiratory failure. But it appears to match his narrative - and I don't doubt has SOME truth to it, as hospitals are businesses and need to make money.

Or maybe all the numbers are made up and I am completely wrong and you are right to be skeptical - but I don't really see any data for that, because our data closely matches the data in a lot of other countries, some of which clearly don't share the same goals that we do (so it's unlikely they would be in a conspiracy with us).
Not to mention that the reported COVID deaths largely match up with the calculated excess deaths. Between that, and pretty much every other country in the world not named China or Russia also agreeing with the general range of death rates, and I think it's safe to say anyone saying this isn't worse than the normal flu is outright wrong, and very ignorant.
 
BamBam54

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When raising the issue of doctors potentially OVER documenting deaths as covid (for financial gain, etc) there are two important facts to consider...

1) it's just as likely that doctors are also UNDER reporting many covid deaths. When someone dies from covid alone at home, during the peak of the illness with medical teams at their limit and testing resources scarce, many cases would not be correctly assigned to the covid count. Likely more missed than extra booked.

2) this can be confirmed by checking the US excess death count. See image. Every week of every year is tracked for total deaths. The US has a pretty regular cycle (Google "CDC excess deaths") and we run under the rolling average year after year unless there is a specific major event. In Jan 2018 it was one of the worst common flu years ever (see little spike above average). This year there is a clear spike in extra deaths FAR above the yearly average during peak covid weeks. If you add up each week for deaths above the running average, you will see about 135,000 extra deaths. Which matches pretty darn close to the reported total of covid deaths.

Unless you can explain why there is a huge spike in deaths during the covid weeks that was caused by some other event.... it was probably caused by covid.

195435
 
muscleupcrohn

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When raising the issue of doctors potentially OVER documenting deaths as covid (for financial gain, etc) there are two important facts to consider...

1) it's just as likely that doctors are also UNDER reporting many covid deaths. When someone dies from covid alone at home, during the peak of the illness with medical teams at their limit and testing resources scarce, many cases would not be correctly assigned to the covid count. Likely more missed than extra booked.

2) this can be confirmed by checking the US excess death count. See image. Every week of every year is tracked for total deaths. The US has a pretty regular cycle (Google "CDC excess deaths") and we run under the rolling average year after year unless there is a specific major event. In Jan 2018 it was one of the worst common flu years ever (see little spike above average). This year there is a clear spike in extra deaths FAR above the yearly average during peak covid weeks. If you add up each week for deaths above the running average, you will see about 135,000 extra deaths. Which matches pretty darn close to the reported total of covid deaths.

Unless you can explain why there is a huge spike in deaths during the covid weeks that was caused by some other event.... it was probably caused by covid.

View attachment 195435
Apparently that's a conspiracy too lol. Sort of reminds me of this comic:
195436
 
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It’s and HIV/AIDS thing. One is the virus the other is the disease. That’s all.
i get that...i was more interested in the timeline...this started out being called corona virus, and then it everyone started calling it covid 19.

look at page 1 of this thread.
 
HIT4ME

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Props for articulating your point and making a point without throwing out a bunch of numbers and being condescending to a counter viewpoint. A lot of good points in your message there.
Yeah, I've probably been condescending and mathematical in this thread at times, so I apologize if I have done that unnecessarily. You posted a coherant argument, so I can appreciate those types of discussions. This would be boring if we all agreed 100% and I already know my viewpoint so having nothing to think about or learn or change isn't all that much fun.

My big issue is when people use illogical arguments or discount the best data we have with no better alternative, and spread information that, good intentions or not, could be dangerous. I don't have much of a platform to fight that on, but I've got this! haha.

I mean, it's one thing to question what's going on, but when the argument makes people believe they're being hoaxed and shouldn't worry about wearing a mask or protecting themselves or their loved ones, and disregards the responsibilities of the strong to protect the weaker - that's worrying to me.

And I am all for the idea that we should rely on ourselves, be responsible for ourselves, etc. That is why I work out. I may not have a six pack, but I'll be damned if I can't get out of a chair when I am 80. But what people don't realize is, you can be strong today, weak tomorrow and then strong again in the future when someone else is weak. That strong person who gives you a hand when you are down, may be the weak person who needs your hand when they are down.

Now, some people just don't pull their weight, and you have to draw a line somewhere...but that is not cut and dry. And I'm not sure that's a government's job as much as it is the job of individuals and society.

I do have to add that my location may very well be a determining factor in my skepticism. We haven’t really been hit with it. When I go out it’s life as usual. Only people wearing masks is food services and hospitals. Bars and gyms are open and we barely shut down, if at all. From where I am sitting and going by what’s in front of my eyes it rightfully so looks over exaggerated.
Well, we are all victims of our own perception. If I lived in an area where there were 10 infections and 2 deaths, I would say - it's a 20% death rate but nobody has it, so shut downs are bogus. I'm not in a hot spot per se, but there are serious hot spots 1 hour from me. In my area we've had 1600 confirmed cases and about 160 deaths. In my state I think we've had 5-10% of the cases in the entire country.

I also think it is good not to over-exaggerate or live in fear. We need to be as precise as possible (which doesn't mean we are even precise - just as close as possible) and calculated. And I can agree that shut downs are not sustainable long-term and we need options, but for now it is what we have. It's not ideal - a vaccine and better treatment would be way more ideal.

I think one of the tones that Trump is trying to hit is, "We have to accept reality and learn to live with this" and I don't disagree with that tone - it is a good general rule for all things in life. Accept and adapt. Unfortunately, right now, we just don't have a good, viable strategy for adaptation.

If we were cavemen and we had a lion outside our cave that was looking to eat something....and we had no weapon, we would have a similar choice. Go out there and ignore the lion (and get eaten), or hide in the cave until either the lion went away or we could create a weapon. Right now, we're hiding in our cave and I know it can't last forever. However, I think it could go on for even a couple of years, with immense difficulty. But we're already complaining when we have electricity, heat, A/C, refrigerators, plenty of food and netflix. Most people don't even go see their friends anyway, they just hit "like" on Facebook.

i get that...i was more interested in the timeline...this started out being called corona virus, and then it everyone started calling it covid 19.

look at page 1 of this thread.
I started calling it Covid because it took less time to type :)

It is funny how long ago that seems, when it was just 4 months ago, and how fast things change.
 
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Yeah, I've probably been condescending and mathematical in this thread at times, so I apologize if I have done that unnecessarily. You posted a coherant argument, so I can appreciate those types of discussions. This would be boring if we all agreed 100% and I already know my viewpoint so having nothing to think about or learn or change isn't all that much fun.

My big issue is when people use illogical arguments or discount the best data we have with no better alternative, and spread information that, good intentions or not, could be dangerous. I don't have much of a platform to fight that on, but I've got this! haha.

I mean, it's one thing to question what's going on, but when the argument makes people believe they're being hoaxed and shouldn't worry about wearing a mask or protecting themselves or their loved ones, and disregards the responsibilities of the strong to protect the weaker - that's worrying to me.

And I am all for the idea that we should rely on ourselves, be responsible for ourselves, etc. That is why I work out. I may not have a six pack, but I'll be damned if I can't get out of a chair when I am 80. But what people don't realize is, you can be strong today, weak tomorrow and then strong again in the future when someone else is weak. That strong person who gives you a hand when you are down, may be the weak person who needs your hand when they are down.

Now, some people just don't pull their weight, and you have to draw a line somewhere...but that is not cut and dry. And I'm not sure that's a government's job as much as it is the job of individuals and society.



Well, we are all victims of our own perception. If I lived in an area where there were 10 infections and 2 deaths, I would say - it's a 20% death rate but nobody has it, so shut downs are bogus. I'm not in a hot spot per se, but there are serious hot spots 1 hour from me. In my area we've had 1600 confirmed cases and about 160 deaths. In my state I think we've had 5-10% of the cases in the entire country.

I also think it is good not to over-exaggerate or live in fear. We need to be as precise as possible (which doesn't mean we are even precise - just as close as possible) and calculated. And I can agree that shut downs are not sustainable long-term and we need options, but for now it is what we have. It's not ideal - a vaccine and better treatment would be way more ideal.

I think one of the tones that Trump is trying to hit is, "We have to accept reality and learn to live with this" and I don't disagree with that tone - it is a good general rule for all things in life. Accept and adapt. Unfortunately, right now, we just don't have a good, viable strategy for adaptation.

If we were cavemen and we had a lion outside our cave that was looking to eat something....and we had no weapon, we would have a similar choice. Go out there and ignore the lion (and get eaten), or hide in the cave until either the lion went away or we could create a weapon. Right now, we're hiding in our cave and I know it can't last forever. However, I think it could go on for even a couple of years, with immense difficulty. But we're already complaining when we have electricity, heat, A/C, refrigerators, plenty of food and netflix. Most people don't even go see their friends anyway, they just hit "like" on Facebook.



I started calling it Covid because it took less time to type :)

It is funny how long ago that seems, when it was just 4 months ago, and how fast things change.
Yeah my issue has not really ever been with the numbers being perfect. My issue has always been with the wishy washy messaging. The lack of consensus. The overhyping and fear mongering, and then the typical blame game. If they could be so wrong about some things then it is reasonable to think they are still wrong about things. The shutdown is probably what bothers me the most. I understand the reasoning and not saying it wasn’t effective, but at what cost? When they shut down this thing was supposed to be the Black Death, the most evil virus to be since the dark ages (yes I am exaggerating). It turned out to not really be what they anticipated, not even close. Now you got people out of work, business closed down permanently, people reporting their neighbors to the police for mask violations, children out of school, I don’t know the stats but divorce and suicide has to be at an all time high now. I don’t feel the shutdown was justified.

Furthermore I am angry that the naming went with COVID instead of the location where the virus originated, like all the other viruses. I feel like China is getting a free pass and they will not be held accountable.
 
HIT4ME

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Yeah my issue has not really ever been with the numbers being perfect. My issue has always been with the wishy washy messaging. The lack of consensus. The overhyping and fear mongering, and then the typical blame game. If they could be so wrong about some things then it is reasonable to think they are still wrong about things. The shutdown is probably what bothers me the most. I understand the reasoning and not saying it wasn’t effective, but at what cost? When they shut down this thing was supposed to be the Black Death, the most evil virus to be since the dark ages (yes I am exaggerating). It turned out to not really be what they anticipated, not even close. Now you got people out of work, business closed down permanently, people reporting their neighbors to the police for mask violations, children out of school, I don’t know the stats but divorce and suicide has to be at an all time high now. I don’t feel the shutdown was justified.

Furthermore I am angry that the naming went with COVID instead of the location where the virus originated, like all the other viruses. I feel like China is getting a free pass and they will not be held accountable.
I've always been a fan of the Kung Flu.
 
muscleupcrohn

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Yeah, I've probably been condescending and mathematical in this thread at times, so I apologize if I have done that unnecessarily. You posted a coherant argument, so I can appreciate those types of discussions. This would be boring if we all agreed 100% and I already know my viewpoint so having nothing to think about or learn or change isn't all that much fun.

My big issue is when people use illogical arguments or discount the best data we have with no better alternative, and spread information that, good intentions or not, could be dangerous. I don't have much of a platform to fight that on, but I've got this! haha.

I mean, it's one thing to question what's going on, but when the argument makes people believe they're being hoaxed and shouldn't worry about wearing a mask or protecting themselves or their loved ones, and disregards the responsibilities of the strong to protect the weaker - that's worrying to me.

And I am all for the idea that we should rely on ourselves, be responsible for ourselves, etc. That is why I work out. I may not have a six pack, but I'll be damned if I can't get out of a chair when I am 80. But what people don't realize is, you can be strong today, weak tomorrow and then strong again in the future when someone else is weak. That strong person who gives you a hand when you are down, may be the weak person who needs your hand when they are down.

Now, some people just don't pull their weight, and you have to draw a line somewhere...but that is not cut and dry. And I'm not sure that's a government's job as much as it is the job of individuals and society.



Well, we are all victims of our own perception. If I lived in an area where there were 10 infections and 2 deaths, I would say - it's a 20% death rate but nobody has it, so shut downs are bogus. I'm not in a hot spot per se, but there are serious hot spots 1 hour from me. In my area we've had 1600 confirmed cases and about 160 deaths. In my state I think we've had 5-10% of the cases in the entire country.

I also think it is good not to over-exaggerate or live in fear. We need to be as precise as possible (which doesn't mean we are even precise - just as close as possible) and calculated. And I can agree that shut downs are not sustainable long-term and we need options, but for now it is what we have. It's not ideal - a vaccine and better treatment would be way more ideal.

I think one of the tones that Trump is trying to hit is, "We have to accept reality and learn to live with this" and I don't disagree with that tone - it is a good general rule for all things in life. Accept and adapt. Unfortunately, right now, we just don't have a good, viable strategy for adaptation.

If we were cavemen and we had a lion outside our cave that was looking to eat something....and we had no weapon, we would have a similar choice. Go out there and ignore the lion (and get eaten), or hide in the cave until either the lion went away or we could create a weapon. Right now, we're hiding in our cave and I know it can't last forever. However, I think it could go on for even a couple of years, with immense difficulty. But we're already complaining when we have electricity, heat, A/C, refrigerators, plenty of food and netflix. Most people don't even go see their friends anyway, they just hit "like" on Facebook.



I started calling it Covid because it took less time to type :)

It is funny how long ago that seems, when it was just 4 months ago, and how fast things change.
Trump would be much more helpful if he told people something to the effect of “we can’t have lockdowns forever, and I know you want to try to get back to some semblance of normal soon, so please wear a mask when you go out to keep everyone safer, and hopefully put and end to the virus sooner.” But no, he allows people to not wear masks or social distance at his rallies, and he makes the very idea of wearing masks somehow political.
 
muscleupcrohn

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Yeah my issue has not really ever been with the numbers being perfect. My issue has always been with the wishy washy messaging. The lack of consensus. The overhyping and fear mongering, and then the typical blame game. If they could be so wrong about some things then it is reasonable to think they are still wrong about things. The shutdown is probably what bothers me the most. I understand the reasoning and not saying it wasn’t effective, but at what cost? When they shut down this thing was supposed to be the Black Death, the most evil virus to be since the dark ages (yes I am exaggerating). It turned out to not really be what they anticipated, not even close. Now you got people out of work, business closed down permanently, people reporting their neighbors to the police for mask violations, children out of school, I don’t know the stats but divorce and suicide has to be at an all time high now. I don’t feel the shutdown was justified.

Furthermore I am angry that the naming went with COVID instead of the location where the virus originated, like all the other viruses. I feel like China is getting a free pass and they will not be held accountable.
Maybe if people actually wore masks, we wouldn’t need lockdowns for as long. And there was mixed messages at first because it’s a novel virus. There’s been an overwhelming consensus in recent months from experts worldwide. Maybe not on what the best course of action regarding shutdowns is, since that’s a mixture of medical knowledge, economics, and legal policy making, but on masks helping, social distancing helping, and that it’s more dangerous than the annual flu. But we have people ITT (not saying it’s you) saying it’s no worse than the flu, or even that it’s not as bad as the flu.

You say “they were wrong before, so maybe they’re also wrong now” is fallacious logic. As others have said, we once thought the earth was the center of the universe, and that the earth was flat. If we’ve been so wrong, how do we know they’re right now? Because we have more data and information every day. Every day we get a better and better picture of what is going on, and how to proceed. But some people (not saying you) just find the smallest hole or discrepancy in statistics and think that suddenly they’re useless/meaningless/fabricated, and that we should just ignore them entirely,
 
muscleupcrohn

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Maybe if people actually wore masks, we wouldn’t need lockdowns for as long. And there was mixed messages at first because it’s a novel virus. There’s been an overwhelming consensus in recent months from experts worldwide. Maybe not on what the best course of action regarding shutdowns is, since that’s a mixture of medical knowledge, economics, and legal policy making, but on masks helping, social distancing helping, and that it’s more dangerous than the annual flu. But we have people ITT (not saying it’s you) saying it’s no worse than the flu, or even that it’s not as bad as the flu.

You say “they were wrong before, so maybe they’re also wrong now” is fallacious logic. As others have said, we once thought the earth was the center of the universe, and that the earth was flat. If we’ve been so wrong, how do we know they’re right now? Because we have more data and information every day. Every day we get a better and better picture of what is going on, and how to proceed. But some people (not saying you) just find the smallest hole or discrepancy in statistics and think that suddenly they’re useless/meaningless/fabricated, and that we should just ignore them entirely,
For example, we have people saying "oh, it's no big deal, most people have nothing to worry about, only elderly people or people at risk. Just have them quarantine." Well, they don't bother to do the research, or even listen to it when it's pointed out, that ~45% (NEARLY HALF) of the population is considered "at risk," and even ~20% (1 in 5) people aged 20-29 is considered at risk. So no, that strategy doesn't work, since you'd be quarantining half the population, which pretty much amounts to lockdown again, which they claim to be against.

Some people ITT are just blind to logic and reason, parroting "they were wrong before, so I'll never listen to anything they say ever again" but instead listen to whatever talking heads they agree with the most who have ZERO medical knowledge and have also been wrong beore.

Not saying that's anyone in particular (but if the shoe fits...), just something I've observed ITT.
 

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I live in Florida, Tampa area for idk 20 years.
I don't know a single person that had it.
Governor Desantis was interviewed by Rush today 😂 and he stated that the spike was in 21 year olds.

He went on saying that age group is just starting to get freely mass tested. Before you needed a script, or 65 years to be tested.
 
muscleupcrohn

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I live in Florida, Tampa area for idk 20 years.
I don't know a single person that had it.
Governor Desantis was interviewed by Rush today 😂 and he stated that the spike was in 21 year olds.

He went on saying that age group is just starting to get freely mass tested. Before you needed a script, or 65 years to be tested.
DeSantis is a moron...

He said the virus has "stabilized" in Florida, even though we literally just had the highest number of positive in a single day.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-cases-deaths-tuesday-july-7-20200707-u45inrgjgveuboxrgvg4llvt3e-story.html

Yes, testing has increased since the virus first started, but look at plenty of other states and even other countries that acted more responsibly than Florida and have passed the worst of it, and gotten to a decline in new cases per day, unlike Florida.

And no, you didn't need a prescription to get tested, at least not everywhere. For example, here's a Florida county in APRIL that didn't need a prescription for testing:

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20200428/coronavirus-florida-no-prescription-needed-for-manatee-county-drive-thru-testing

Remember, this is the same man who doesn't/didn't even know how to wear a mask, yeah, I'm sure he's the best person to listen to about anything medical related...

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/04/florida-ron-desantis-face-mask.html

195453
 
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I live in Florida, Tampa area for idk 20 years.
I don't know a single person that had it.
Governor Desantis was interviewed by Rush today 😂 and he stated that the spike was in 21 year olds.

He went on saying that age group is just starting to get freely mass tested. Before you needed a script, or 65 years to be tested.
I live in Florida, Tampa area for idk 20 years.
I don't know a single person that had it.
Governor Desantis was interviewed by Rush today 😂 and he stated that the spike was in 21 year olds.

He went on saying that age group is just starting to get freely mass tested. Before you needed a script, or 65 years to be tested.
Also, look at deaths, which isn’t subject to increased testing, and you see that nothing much has changed in Florida in the last 3 months, so I’d hardly say Florida has it under control.


If anything, it’s actually trending upwards worse than a month, two, or three ago.
195454
 
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It is also easy to forget that death is only one of the consequences:

Seems to have the potential to trigger some chronic inflammatory or neurological diseases/disorders in people. On the other side of the coin, people will be leary of the same potential consequences from receiving a Kung Flu vaccine, as long term safety data won’t exist.

We just can’t win!
 
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Seems to have the potential to trigger some chronic inflammatory or neurological diseases/disorders in people. On the other side of the coin, people will be leary of the same potential consequences from receiving a Kung Flu vaccine, as long term safety data won’t exist.

We just can’t win!
i saw a poll where only 60% would get a vaccine if available.
 
muscleupcrohn

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i saw a poll where only 60% would get a vaccine if available.
How can anyone say they would or wouldn’t with any degree of certainty now? Without knowing how prevalent the virus will be when the vaccine is ready, without knowing the expected safety profile, without knowing the expected efficacy, without knowing the results of trials, etc. Sort of meaningless conjecture ATM IMO.
 

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There is no way one can determine accurate numbers. Especially in NYC!
Just accept the fact that we did face a virus and the Democrats politicized the numbers like they politicize everything.

Same pile of horse **** with the floyd, Brooks. Why the hell didn't biden or Obama take care of this brutal police force when they were in office? I mean if black people are afraid of being killed over a broken tail light why the **** didn't a black president do something?

They want the kids not to go to screwal so they can get mail in votes and have a snowball's chance in hell with defeating trump.

l would be embarrassed and ashamed if I were a Democrat for believing the horse ****.
 

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