mRNA is experimental. Serious side effects(like autoimmunity/cancer can/could manifest years down the road and not be able to be attributed to the vaccine. Think epigenetic.
Do you have a plausible biological mechanism by which mRNA and the subsequently translated proteins impart methylation/acetylation/other alterations to the genetic code?
Im genuinely curious because everyone likes to say that but without any evidence. I’m a biochemist by education, and I just don’t see a reasonable mechanism. For me, there’s got to be a lot to convince me that mRNA isn’t going to be translated into the proteins that will elicit the immune response and eventually be degraded. It seems like any side effects should be related to defects in the immune response, like guillian barre, but that generally manifests on the order of weeks to months, from what we’ve seen in other vaccines.
for those that are going to see this, the mRNA vaccine technology essentially works like this: mRNA encapsulation with lipid shell is brought into the cell where the mRNA escapes and is processed, coding only for the spike protein of sars-cov-2. Spike protein secretion to the outside of the cell where it is displayed for detection and response by the immune system.
I believe there are 9 mRNA vaccines that have been trialed in phase 1 and phase 2, going back to 2013. I get that cancer is going to be up to decades from now that people are worried about and wouldn’t be expected from the limited data from previous mRNA trials, but 6 months of good safety data without a plausible mechanism for non-reactive is long-term side effects, I don’t see it.
My thoughts on the topic are:
Modern vaccines are not generally linked to long-term terms effects. Most people might think of potential rare long-term side effects from vaccination stemming from a possible link between a 1976 H1N1 vaccination and a small increased risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome. Mind you this was calculated later to be an estimated 1 additional case of GBS in every 100,000-people receiving the vaccine. Consistent monitoring also suggests that any additional susceptibility to GBS from flu vaccination occurs at the rate of an additional 1-2 cases per 1 million vaccinations. Furthermore, you’re actually more likely to develop GBS from the flu than from the vaccination. I know we’re talking about COVID and not the flu, but this is the tangible evidence for long-term health effects from vaccines in modern times. There’s also a link between a 2009 vaccine and narcolepsy in Europe. Specifically, Pandemrix (monovalent 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine) was linked to narcolepsy in Finland and other countries at a rate of 3 in 100,000, compared to a normal rate of 1 in 100,000. This is still rare, and we aren’t even sure that it was entirely due to the vaccine adjuvant suspected. It looks like strong genetic predisposition (human leukocyte antigen [HLA] haplotype) plus the vaccine, plus the virus itself potentially, is what caused it. There are even data to suggest that the natural infection actually is more likely to cause narcolepsy in those predisposed, compared to the pandemrix, and only like 2% of some people sampled that developed narcolepsy in that time thought to be due to the vaccine (small sample size, like 50 iirc) had any antibodies to h1n1 so they didn’t get the natural infection or the vaccine.
Nonetheless, the instances, if triggered by a vaccine, will most likely manifest within 2-3 months, which we’ve already passed because it’s been over six months since the first mRNA vaccine trials. It appears that no data substantiate the idea of long-term, latent side effects emerging years down the road. Full disclaimer, I’m not saying that we don’t know that they aren’t risk free; there’s no way of knowing right now. My estimation is that there might be something that comes up on the order of one or two cases per couple million people vaccinated, maybe. There is a general consensus, however, that the mRNA vaccines and spike protein vaccines are safer than traditional vaccines that deliver the entire dead or skeleton of the virus, compared to the single spike protein, which is more targeted and refined in generating an immune response.
The general public isn’t going to get the vaccine until spring of 2021, most likely April, which provides a year of data since phase 1 trials in May of 2020. Also, one trial idk at this point if it’s Moderna or Pfizer has over 100,000 enrollees in phase 3 trials (phase 1 started greater than six months ago); as far as safety the Ebola and shingrex vaccines had 15,900 and 32,00 enrollees in phase 3 trials respectively, so I have confidence in the candidates right now.
generally speaking, I’m not taking it until all the data are out, the aforementioned hypotheses are supported, and I’ve discussed it with medical doctors, scientists, and those who know more than I do. I wouldn’t advocate for myself or anyone else to make an uniformed decision, either way.
also, to my knowledge, only Pfizer and Moderna (Edit: and a few others) are mRNA, out of like 100 candidates. Some of the other popular ones are actually vector spike vaccines. There’s actually a good amount of variation