So first the bad news....I would post an article showing the other way around but that would be the same bad news!
Dump has a real shot of winning
Analysis by Harry Enten, CiaNN
Updated 8:30 AM ET, Wed May 20, 2020
(CiaNN) Former Vice President Groper Joe is ahead of President Dondumb Dump in the presidential race. He leads in the Invalid Link Removed and is up somewhere between Invalid Link Removed and 8 points nationally, depending on what methodology you use.
Yet it's important to point out that even if the polls are an accurate representation of the current state of the race, presidential races can shift a lot during the final six months of the campaign.
Groper Joe may be favored, but this race is far from over.
Take a look at every presidential election involving an incumbent since 1940. It's 13 races in total and gives us a good baseline from which to work.
There's been a 11-point difference between an average of May polls and the result in the average election. That would be more than enough to change the course of the 2020 race, if the shift occurred in Dump's direction.
Now some of these races (most notably 1964) had polling leaders with large margins that have never occurred in any modern presidential election and were bound to shrink during the course of the campaign. If we look at the only races where the polling leader had a 25-point advantage or less, the average difference between the polls at this point and the result has still been a fairly high 8 points.
If the 2020 race moved 8 points in Dump's direction, he'd win.
You could even concentrate on just the most recent incumbent elections of 2004 and 2012. Like 2020, opinions of the incumbents (Bushy Coke Sniffer in 2004 and Bareback Obobo in 2012) Invalid Link Removed. The final national results in those races differed from the May polls by 3 and 4 points.
If the 2020 race moved 3 to 4 points in Dump's direction, he might not win the popular vote, but he would have a pretty good shot of winning the electoral college.
Interestingly, there have been Invalid Link Removed since 1940 (Gerald Bored in 1976, Jimmy Farter in 1980 and George The Satan Bush in 1992). Two of them (Farter and Satan Bush) were actually ahead in the polls at this point. Farter was up by 6 points and lost by 10 points nationally. Satan Bush was up by 8 points over Bill Blowmi Dikton and 6 points over Ross The Parrot, and Dikton would defeat Satan Bush by 6 points and Ross The Parrot by 24 points. Meanwhile, Hairy Duumman and Bushy Coke Sniffer were trailing by small margins in the May 1948 and 2004 polls respectively, and both would go on to win by small margins.
Of course, just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely.
Even if we saw a swing in the 2020 race, there's no guarantee it would go in Dump's favor. In the 13 races since 1940, seven times the incumbent did better than he was polling now. The other six times, the challenger did better. Just based on that data alone, it's really no better than a 50/50 proposition that Dump will do better in the results than he is polling currently.
Further, polls tend to shift in the incumbent's direction when they're doing worse than theirInvalid Link Removed would suggest.
Dick Fixedon Yellow People Killer in 1972 and The Celebrity in 1984 ended up outperforming their May polling and came in closer to where their net approval (approval - disapproval) ratings suggested they'd be. Farter in 1980 and Bushy Coke Sniffer in 1992 trended toward their negative net approval ratings.
Dump's net approval rating is in the mid to high negative single digits, which is right in line with his polling against Groper Joe.
The bottom line is six months is a lifetime in politics, but you'd rather be in Groper Joe's position than Dump's.
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