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Investment Strategies

RobInKuwait said:
Dam, D, what do you do....work in a lab all day? :lol:
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well actually... :D

Doesn't everybody have a big chart of the nuclides on their wall? (lol) We make a good team Rob. You show me how to make some money and good investments, and I'll help you with all the technical stuff. ;)
 
DR.D said:
well actually... :D

Doesn't everybody have a big chart of the nuclides on their wall? (lol) We make a good team Rob. You show me how to make some money and good investments, and I'll help you with all the technical stuff. ;)
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Dude, I was down 45% in 2008....I'm really not an investment seer :sick:
 
RobInKuwait said:
Dude, I was down 45% in 2008....I'm really not an investment seer :sick:
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You're not alone bro. Most everyone I know in the market is down about half. They fear commodities too, so if it bounces they'll miss out on that also.

I think Jake may be on to something with the Aussie Au rush and his insights on REEs. When the economy craps out, there won't be much capital for opening new mines, ya know. It makes sense that people in the know would procure needed elements before hand.
 
DR.D said:
You're not alone bro. Most everyone I know in the market is down about half. They fear commodities too, so if it bounces they'll miss out on that also.

I think Jake may be on to something with the Aussie Au rush and his insights on REEs. When the economy craps out, there won't be much capital for opening new mines, ya know. It makes sense that people in the know would procure needed elements before hand.
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I really don't think anyone *knows* whats going to happen. A guy I know was telling me he bought the crap out of American Financials the other day. Who knows, maybe that's the right strategy. I think the strategy I'm trying makes sense from the context of the dollar dying, but I can't guarantee that will happen, and essentially I'm placing my chips in on the government not succeeding vs my friend whose placing his chips on the government succeeding.
 
RobInKuwait said:
I really don't think anyone *knows* whats going to happen. ...
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Yeah, you may be right about that my friend. I make no assumptions anymore, it's just too complicated to form a conclusion IMO.

Are there any hi-cap index funds, specifically heavy in agricultural commodities or metals?
 
DR.D said:
Yeah, you may be right about that my friend. I make no assumptions anymore, it's just too complicated to form a conclusion IMO.

Are there any hi-cap index funds, specifically heavy in agricultural commodities or metals?
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PowerShares Global Agriculture Port(ETF)
(Public, NASDAQ:PAGG)

ETFS PREC.METAL ETFS PRECIOUS METALS DJ-AIGCI
(Public, LON:AIGP)

Just do a google investment search for ETF (exchange traded fund) and whatever sector of the market you're interested in.
 
Absolute bloodbath today:

Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) AUY 6.58 -0.45 (-6.40%) -11.10%
Pengrowth Energy Trust (USA) PGH 7.93 -0.17 (-2.10%) -1.32%
SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) GLD 81.22 -2.70 (-3.22%) -2.24%
iShares Silver Trust (ETF) SLV 10.78* -0.32 (-2.86%)-0.80%
CurrencyShares Australian... FXA 68.51 -2.01 (-2.85%) 2.70%
USAA S&P 500 Index Member USSPX 13.33 -0.29 (-2.13%) 3.36%
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 58.94-0.11 (-0.19%) -0.27%
 
Monsanto has almost complete control of the worlds seed supply with patents on 1200 different strains. Their round-up ready seeds spread into neighboring farmers land and they can sue them for damages and patent infringement.
A presedent was set when the ruling judge in their first case ruled it didnt matter how the seeds got in their crop, only that they were there. If you had no soul and wanted to sell out to the devil monsanto stocks will be the future since they will control the food we eat. GMO crops will be the downfall of human beings but maybe you can get some cash!
 
somewhatgifted said:
... If you had no soul and wanted to sell out to the devil monsanto stocks will be the future since they will control the food we eat. GMO crops will be the downfall of human beings but maybe you can get some cash!
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Well, if you believe in the Bible's teachings, remember the parable of the talents. The wise stewards took the master's money and traded in the market with the money exchangers till they had doubled the principle. The master (God) is like a hard man who reaps where he does not sow, and gathers where he does not plant. In other words, I think a God fearing man is fully authorized to cash in on the devil in this worldly system. In fact, the servant who failed to obtain a return on his money was kicked out of the house and even stripped of what little he still had! That would really suck. :)

The problem is, you can't make deals with the devil without getting burned somehow, so if Monsanto really is the devil, don't count on a return anyway. :o
 
DR.D said:
Well, if you believe in the Bible's teachings, remember the parable of the talents. The wise stewards took the master's money and traded in the market with the money exchangers till they had doubled the principle. The master (God) is like a hard man who reaps where he does not sow, and gathers where he does not plant. In other words, I think a God fearing man is fully authorized to cash in on the devil in this worldly system. In fact, the servant who failed to obtain a return on his money was kicked out of the house and even stripped of what little he still had! That would really suck. :)

The problem is, you can't make deals with the devil without getting burned somehow, so if Monsanto really is the devil, don't count on a return anyway. :o
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Well i put little stock in the bible as a whole. There are many many great passages,messages and lessons throughout. Not all of the bible fits into my idea of what god is if there is a "god" and what it/he would have for me or have me do. I believe its a mistake to think the bible is the onlym best, correct or sole "wor of god." Its everywhere and everything.The bible is "life for dummies" as rough guide to show you what to do to maximise your human experience.. these lessons are available outside of the ancient and not so ancient texts as well. I feel that i have a direct connection to god more pure, valid and non corrupt than a passed down, diluted corrupted but generally amazing piece of literature. The depth of understanding of the bible can be poor where linguistic error, comprehesive malfunction and limited consciousness simply doesnt grasp the intent of the words and stories.

It is for this reason i form my own opinions and seek to expand, alter and grow them. I refuse to be a sheep a blind follower void of heart, introspection and passion for truth.

I welcome a response in a PM if you think there is a flaw to my logic and if you are interested in monsanto and GMO crops check out "the future of food". Alarming, disturbing and likely to be a great source of human suffering, disease, mutation and illness.

Good to see you posting again Dr.!
 
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somewhatgifted said:
... I welcome a response in a PM if you think there is a flaw to my logic and if you are interested in monsanto and GMO crops check out "the future of food". Alarming, disturbing and likely to be a great source of human suffering, disease, mutation and illness.

Good to see you posting again Dr.!
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Good to see you around again too SWG! :)
 
If you have money in the market in something other than a fund that shorts, pull it out now. Its going to get bloody. It hit 8200 yesterday, and many people that study fundamentals are predicting as low as 5500.

Yesterday, retail sales were expected to be 2.2%. They were actually -2.7%. Crazy. Here's my portfolio now.

Pengrowth Energy Trust (USA) PGH 7.78

The only reason I kept that is because every month I get 11 new shares off my 500 through dividend reinvestment. If the price plummets that will mean more shares every month.
 
RobInKuwait said:
If you have money in the market in something other than a fund that shorts, pull it out now. Its going to get bloody. It hit 8200 yesterday, and many people that study fundamentals are predicting as low as 5500.

Yesterday, retail sales were expected to be 2.2%. They were actually -2.7%. Crazy. Here's my portfolio now.

Pengrowth Energy Trust (USA) PGH 7.78

The only reason I kept that is because every month I get 11 new shares off my 500 through dividend reinvestment. If the price plummets that will mean more shares every month.
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It really is a mugs game at the moment but if you can ride out the storm there are certain bargains to be had. One of the traders at my work said the other day in 2 or 3 years we're going to look back at the price of some of these stocks and be amazed at how cheap they were. Its true. With a long term strategy you can really pick up some bargains. Not every company has had the profits eaten up, or massive outstanding loans, or ridiculous derivative positions. Fundamentals have gone out the window these last few months but sooner or later ( i think >6 months from now) they will come back into play and the companies with sustainable profits will shine through.

Anyone else kinda enjoying seeing these banks tumble??
 
Australian made said:
It really is a mugs game at the moment but if you can ride out the storm there are certain bargains to be had. One of the traders at my work said the other day in 2 or 3 years we're going to look back at the price of some of these stocks and be amazed at how cheap they were. Its true. With a long term strategy you can really pick up some bargains. Not every company has had the profits eaten up, or massive outstanding loans, or ridiculous derivative positions. Fundamentals have gone out the window these last few months but sooner or later ( i think >6 months from now) they will come back into play and the companies with sustainable profits will shine through.

Anyone else kinda enjoying seeing these banks tumble??
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While your friend is right, the valuations we're seeing now *should* be low in a couple of years, IMHO your friend is missing a very key point. Stock prices are not determined on valuations, they're determined on the number of buyers and sellers. Valuations are a great guide in a stable market, but when the market is in a downward spiral, as it is now, people are selling stocks and shorting stocks irrationally. This market will have a bottom, and it is not 8000, that much is for certain.

Look at it this way:

You own 100 shares of a fund that mirrors the DOW that you bought for 13 dollars a share when the DOW was 13000. Now your 13000 is worth 8000. Well, if the market drops to 5000, that's how much your investment is worth. However, if you sell now, at 8000 and buy back in at 5000, you're getting more than 50% more shares, and when the market pops back up, your profit will be that much sweeter. Just some food for thought.
 
RobInKuwait said:
While your friend is right, the valuations we're seeing now *should* be low in a couple of years, IMHO your friend is missing a very key point. Stock prices are not determined on valuations, they're determined on the number of buyers and sellers. Valuations are a great guide in a stable market, but when the market is in a downward spiral, as it is now, people are selling stocks and shorting stocks irrationally. This market will have a bottom, and it is not 8000, that much is for certain.

Look at it this way:

You own 100 shares of a fund that mirrors the DOW that you bought for 13 dollars a share when the DOW was 13000. Now your 13000 is worth 8000. Well, if the market drops to 5000, that's how much your investment is worth. However, if you sell now, at 8000 and buy back in at 5000, you're getting more than 50% more shares, and when the market pops back up, your profit will be that much sweeter. Just some food for thought.
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I understand what you're saying. Basically you are trying to pick when the market is going to bottom out. What im saying is forget how much further the DOW could drop, at the end of the day there are still companies out there with healthy earnings and decent yeilding dividends at the CURRENT prices.

eg. you buy $20K worth of stock at 50c/share.in 5 years time they are worth $1.50 so you have trippled your money which is a great return even IF after you bought the shares they trickled all the way down to 10c/share.....it would be very annoying to watch and you'd need balls to hold onto them but like i said long term if you have done you're research you should be in the money. The thing to remember is if you thought the stock was a bargain at 50c then you can buy more at 40c, 30c etc and your average price will drop right down anyway and a smaller turn around will be needed to break even/make profit.

as for my traders comment it was made off the cuff when things were tumbling before xmas...as in not a thought went into it but i think he is right. There are going to be fortunes made in the next decade and i intend on bagging one for myself!!
 
Australian made said:
I understand what you're saying. Basically you are trying to pick when the market is going to bottom out. What im saying is forget how much further the DOW could drop, at the end of the day there are still companies out there with healthy earnings and decent yeilding dividends at the CURRENT prices.

eg. you buy $20K worth of stock at 50c/share.in 5 years time they are worth $1.50 so you have trippled your money which is a great return even IF after you bought the shares they trickled all the way down to 10c/share.....it would be very annoying to watch and you'd need balls to hold onto them but like i said long term if you have done you're research you should be in the money. The thing to remember is if you thought the stock was a bargain at 50c then you can buy more at 40c, 30c etc and your average price will drop right down anyway and a smaller turn around will be needed to break even/make profit.

as for my traders comment it was made off the cuff when things were tumbling before xmas...as in not a thought went into it but i think he is right. There are going to be fortunes made in the next decade and i intend on bagging one for myself!!
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While I agree with what you're saying, I don't think this will be a a repeat of 2001. This will be more akin to a 1929 type scenario. The market fundamentals are not strong as a whole now, and any individual stock will be hard pressed to get positive results while the market as a whole is doing so bad.

People expected the market to be worse....a mere 2.2% growth in retail sales was projected. The lowest in years. The market got -2.7% in retail sales growth. Every company that has reported earnings from JP Morgan in financials, to ALCOA in basic materials has missed earnings. Big time. The market has dropped almost 10% THIS WEEK, and its Thursday. Every indicator is a downward spiral, with no bottom yet in site.

Add in the fact that the US is printing money at exponential rates, and you can count on serious inflationary pressures once the banks stop hoarding their cash and foreign investors shy away from the treasury bubble.

The fundamentals are BAD.

I think Jakell said earlier that cash is king. I believe him now. I'm sorry for doubting him before. At least till inflation gets a foothold, then gold is king and cash is a pauper.

I plan on getting heavy into gold near April-June 2009. Depending on when the dollar shows signs of losing value.
 
^^^ there's plenty of different strategies people are using in the curent climate. I hope you pick one of the right ones. I'll stick with my current positions and leave the rest in cash for now.
 
well its all doom and gloom for us...if your planning a trip to Australia anytime soon sounds like its going to be cheap for you guys around Xmas this year.....might have a cheeky spreadbet on the USD/AUD rate...

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Australian made said:
well its all doom and gloom for us...if your planning a trip to Australia anytime soon sounds like its going to be cheap for you guys around Xmas this year.....might have a cheeky spreadbet on the USD/AUD rate...

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Cheap AU dollars should make supps expensive for you tho :(
 
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