thebigt
Legend
apology accepted
Anyone worried if Corona virus keeps spreading the gyms will shut down?
- Thread starter JoePaul39
- Start date
BamBam54
Well-known member
Some other have mentioned car accidents in their arguments here and elsewhere, and I would like to point out that car accidents (and most causes of death in general) don't increase and grow at an exponential rate like a deadly virus. The total car accidents on a Monday don't double by Friday, and then double again next week. THAT is what made the covid virus such a concern where states/countries took the extreme measure of a quarantine lock down as the best (only?) short term defensive measure.
I had a doctor friend post this meme, and apparently he isn't very bright, or has some other agenda he is pushing.
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Because while this data thru March 31st is technically true, the Covid deaths world wide didn't really take off scary fast until mid March. And by the time he posted this dopey meme on April 5th, the total death rate had already doubled. And then tripled by April 11th. Might reach 4x by late tomorrow, even with extreme quarantine measures in place around the world!
In my friends post along with this image he said, "I tell everyone to wake up and they look at me like I am crazy". A better question might be.... if they are right, and you ARE crazy, how would you ever understand?
I had a doctor friend post this meme, and apparently he isn't very bright, or has some other agenda he is pushing.
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Because while this data thru March 31st is technically true, the Covid deaths world wide didn't really take off scary fast until mid March. And by the time he posted this dopey meme on April 5th, the total death rate had already doubled. And then tripled by April 11th. Might reach 4x by late tomorrow, even with extreme quarantine measures in place around the world!
In my friends post along with this image he said, "I tell everyone to wake up and they look at me like I am crazy". A better question might be.... if they are right, and you ARE crazy, how would you ever understand?
muscleupcrohn
Legend
Reminds me of this comic. As you said, the issue is the potential exponential growth of the virus if left uncontrolled. None of the other things on that list work in that way.
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JoePaul39
Well-known member
Or to another state that doesn’t have a lock down lol! In all seriousness I suspect we will begin to see a partial opening of the economy in many states starting May 1. Far too many people are being hurt by this economically and getting upset and governors need their votes later to get re-elected so many will cave!
justhere4comm
Banned
Like when only 8 polling places of over 120 were open in Wisconsin per the GOP and people were forced to risk their lives to vote out the incumbent GOP Supreme Court Judge in person?
Mail in ballots were not permitted nor extending the election deadline. Funny thing. They still lost. I wonder how many of those voters are now infected?
States opening when not cleared of being safe are risking lives of those voters. They will lose votes in doing so.
Mail in ballots were not permitted nor extending the election deadline. Funny thing. They still lost. I wonder how many of those voters are now infected?
States opening when not cleared of being safe are risking lives of those voters. They will lose votes in doing so.
JoePaul39
Well-known member
We need to also remember besides the virus poverty also leads to a rapid rate of expansion causing many various health problems indirectly.
JoePaul39
Well-known member
A bunch of homeless cats have been abandoned recently at my wife’s cat shelter due to several not for profit humane societies in the area going out of business due to the shut down. The shelters are trying to dump off the friendly ones at other shelters, but are having to euthanize the real scared feral ones and the mean ones.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
As if allowing this virus to run uncontrolled with no restrictions, killing potentially hundreds of thousands of people wouldn’t also have severe negative impacts on the economy.
Hell, people throw around the 0.4% death rate, when it’s documented at closer to 4% in the US. But even if it is “only” 0.4%, if 50% of the population gets it, consider it there is NO natural immunity to it at all, that’s 2/3 of a MILLION people dead. Yeah, I’m sure that won’t impact the economy at all...
justhere4comm
Banned
My wife just shared this video. A few take aways. She is on Diamox for her Pseudo Tumor Cerebri. She’s upped the dose when sick and it helped her push through.
Watch the video.
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Watch the video.
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JoePaul39
Well-known member
Trying to predict how many people would die is mere speculation that is why they have had so many models that contradict themselves and also need constant revision. When this all broke out many were predicting millions will die. If the economy stays shut down the prediction many will be hurt or die is not speculation, but a known fact.
JoePaul39
Well-known member
LMFAO
Renew1
Legend
Honestly, part of the reason I posted that was not just irony ..... But also to stop the f'in bickering for a second.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
The consensus among all models is that we don’t want to overwhelm hospitals, flattening the curve and all that. It’s not “speculation” that things will be horrible if half the country catches the virus. It is a “known fact” as well. If hospitals become overwhelmed, our capacity and ability to treat people falls, and the death rate rises. That’s not “speculation,” that’s common sense.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
And, again, I don’t claim to have all the answers, or the right answer, but neither do you. Neither do any of us. The death estimates are just that; estimates. They’re flawed and change. But economics is hardly a “hard science” either, so the analysis of economic impact isn’t exactly concrete and absolute either. There are so many variables here, and so many things can change, none of us know. And there may be some middle ground at some point between total lockdown and business as usual.
JoePaul39
Well-known member
Honestly, part of the reason I posted that was not just irony ..... But also to stop the f'in bickering for a second.
I got ya! Right or left we all come to this forum as an escape or hobby and constantly debating politics defeats this purpose. I just am so frustrated at tHe situation our country is in. I am going to refrain for at least a few days from debating this topic and leave the last word to my friend @muscleupcrohn .
JoePaul39
Well-known member
I can agree with most of the above!
HIT4ME
Well-known member
There are two types of people in this world.
1. Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data.
This strategy works well if your constituency stays at home. You could reduce all of your opposition's votes!
Well, a company that has less than 1 month of cash on hand is going to die anyway. It has nothing to do with Covid.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
Dude, you’re in a thread where the title explicitly talks about the virus. We can keep all virus and political talk out of general threads in this forum, but I don’t get you you can be surprised or complain when a thread that has the virus and closures in the name discusses the virus and closures lol.
But yeah, no obligation to post here or talk about the virus or politics at all my friend. It can get stressful and old. And I do see plenty of threads on the forum that don’t involve political discussion, because that’s not the topic. But this particular thread is sort of inherently political, no?
muscleupcrohn
Legend
Great! Probably a good place to put a hold on the discussion for me for now haha!
HIT4ME
Well-known member
/Thread. You know, nice job. We have all lost site of the PURPOSE of this thread - and you found the answer.
What else you going to do with all this isolation?
BamBam54
Well-known member
The economic shutdown will certainly cause some poverty, and poverty can create health issues.
But given the choose between poor and dead... most people will still choose poor.
That is a pretty solid fact too.
If anything, I think the curve will flatten and the economy can creep open a bit more.... until the deaths rise and restrictions tighten. The cycle of many small curves, recommended in the models as best possible hope until a vaccine is developed. But remember the virus is still here and still trying to infect 60-80% of the entire population on earth until herd immunity or a vaccine.
As stated earlier... one thing we don't yet know is how many people were infected and never even showed enough symptoms to demand/require urgent testing. If the number is very high that is good news because it lowers the overall fatality rate (maybe from the current US number of 4% down to 2% or 1%?). That same information is also bad news because it means the virus spreads even faster and farther than currently thought (R=2.5) which again makes the virus more dangerous. Can't cherry pick data without looking at both the good and bad aspects.
But given the choose between poor and dead... most people will still choose poor.
That is a pretty solid fact too.
If anything, I think the curve will flatten and the economy can creep open a bit more.... until the deaths rise and restrictions tighten. The cycle of many small curves, recommended in the models as best possible hope until a vaccine is developed. But remember the virus is still here and still trying to infect 60-80% of the entire population on earth until herd immunity or a vaccine.
As stated earlier... one thing we don't yet know is how many people were infected and never even showed enough symptoms to demand/require urgent testing. If the number is very high that is good news because it lowers the overall fatality rate (maybe from the current US number of 4% down to 2% or 1%?). That same information is also bad news because it means the virus spreads even faster and farther than currently thought (R=2.5) which again makes the virus more dangerous. Can't cherry pick data without looking at both the good and bad aspects.
Jinsun
Well-known member
No, but you seriously need to calm down a bit : )
I wont disclose wat country I'm in due to OpSec reasons. Period. I also have no reason what so ever to lie. Why would I come here and lie about this stuff? Also, if I was to search for the interview you so desperately want me to link you, you wouldn't understand one word from it. If you don't believe me then don't. That's your choice. And again, for the f'in 3rd time, I am not saying we shouldn't do anything; I am saying that we are panicking to much and that statistics are totally screwed. Ok? Can you please stop nonsensicaly bickering at me, disregarding most coments that would actually make sense for you to fact check for your self? Thank you < 3
It was quite funny in our country when deths started happening. The first death was like; we have the first covid death, but the patient was severly ill, and it's hard to say what actually killed him. The same with the second one, third one, etc. Nobody panicked, NOBODY. Because the doctors made it blatantly obvious that this were sick people that died. And they would have either way. Nobody died just b/c of covid19. And it was funny when we saw our country being added to the world wide statistic to covid deaths, when we new that this were "already dead" people who died who just happend toalso be positive for covid. Then started dying realy old people in old folks home. You know, those that are lying in beds most days and are susceptible to every bad virus out there. This are people that die if they get the flu or pneumonia, etc. A lot of them died in the elderly homes, they didn't even get to the hospitals, etc. Now we in our country now all this and look at our country's statistic with no panick at all. But you and everybody else doesn't know about this. And you just see the WHO statistics and say look; this is the death rate there, yada yada yada ... And let me say this for the 3rd time again, in Itally everybody who died got added to the statistic. You wont to google this, google it, it's not a secret but it's buried for some reason. Nobody hunged a red flag on that fact. When this was admitted we were all just like, "mkey ... so ... now what ...".
In any case, this is why I'm saying to dig around your area about who is dying and who is in the statistic. Don't just look at the CDC and WHO's official statistics. It's funny how you imply that I am ignorant, etc. but you fail do to proper research in to your statistics and you ignorantly just follow WHO's statistic and do nothing more. And no, I am not doing all of this research for you as it's hard to do such research for foreigners. This is internal information, obscure articles, obscure interview, comments, that quickly get left behind by tons of new sensational news articles.
For instance, our government is really trying hard to suppress any oppositional discourse to their political agenda. I get it, why they are doing it, but I'm just saying, that a lot of oppositional information just isn't coming out. I'm a media/humanistic studies professional. Analysis and media text's is my field. And I am saying that main stream media is highly highly preferential and biased towards releasing certain kind of information and suppressing or not even investigating other kinds. Just try and find the fact that Itally reported all deaths not just covid ones. How long will it take you to find this fact. Use a stopwatch. You will find it, but it will take some time. This is called media agenda.
Again, if this is happening in our small country and if it's happening in Italy, it's happening in your country. Also look at germany and all the information that's coming from them. Again, you really have to dig. This is not front page red flag sensationaly titled news.
Again, just saying we are panicking to much. The car analogy was mine, yes. Look first off all I am not a stupid, okey? You can twist this comment as much as you want and you can make me look bad to a point where you think you'll discredit me so much that I'll just dig a hole for my stupid little head and stuff it in and ask for permission if I can come out now. lol, chill the F out. : ) I just said we don't panic as much about other deaths which are 10x or 100x times more. Yes, I've read all the data about flattening the curve the same minute it came out. As soon as they created the first model. Hammer and the dance. Also, I work a lot with big pharma and the health care system. I am not ignorant. thank you and remember, we are just talking, and I am happy to change my mind. But as of now you actually haven't directed anything against my argument. Which is again: skewed statistics, false and sensational reportings of deaths and to much panic.
thebigt
Legend
lol, maybe the judge lost because only democrats were dumb enough to go to polls....sorry couldn't help myself since you went all political.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
Part of response bolded in above quote.
It took me about 20 seconds to find these using DuckDuckGo instead of Google:
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But, if you actually read them, you'll still see that there were still some deaths in non-elderly people with few/no comorbidities. Granted, most people had some comorbidities, but what percentage of the American population has at least 1 comorbidity? Considering the list of comorbidities for COVID-19 I posted a while back, it's probably over half the population. Hell, if diabetes and obesity are comorbidities, then we're looking at HUGE numbers already from those two alone.
Comparing this to car crashes and saying "mOre pEOPle DIe iN cAR CRashES" is asinine, and irrelevant.
Do car crashes fatalities occur at an exponential rate if left unchecked? NO
Are we likely to develop significantly better treatments for car crash victims in the near future, making it logical to try to limit the number of cases until we know more about how to better treat them? NO
muscleupcrohn
Legend
And what "OpSec" BS prevents you from saying what country you're in, but allows you to discuss the field you're in, and drop hints about what country you're in (the size of the country, what the chief of the clinic supposedly said, etc.)? That's some Jason Blaha "I trained at the Farm at Langley" stuff man.
BamBam54
Well-known member
In my local area, a family went out to dinner and apparently had covid for dessert. 4 dead, 3 on ventilators. If the hospital beds were full, it would have been 7 dead. No one expected to die that day or month or year. They just had a family dinner in an area laced with a deadly virus.
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Same with nursing homes. People there are old and could die any time. One year, two years, five years? In the age range of 60-80... you would have a 20 year range on who might die when. Some people live to 100! But if someone over 60 years old catches coronavirus, the odds are over 10-12% they will be dead in a month.
Or back to the dopey car analogy... old people die in car accidents too. More than middle age people. So if an old person dies in a car accident... is it really a car accident or were they just going to die anyway??
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Same with nursing homes. People there are old and could die any time. One year, two years, five years? In the age range of 60-80... you would have a 20 year range on who might die when. Some people live to 100! But if someone over 60 years old catches coronavirus, the odds are over 10-12% they will be dead in a month.
Or back to the dopey car analogy... old people die in car accidents too. More than middle age people. So if an old person dies in a car accident... is it really a car accident or were they just going to die anyway??
muscleupcrohn
Legend
Good points. Plenty of people have diabetes and weren't going to die for probably DECADES, but it's a comorbidity, so apparently they were going to die anyway, so you can't count it as a COVID death. That checks out!
thebigt
Legend
certain demorats are pushing for illegals to get stimulus check...if you are not a citizen but are here working legally and have a SS# you are entitled to get a check...if you are here illegally I don't think you should be entitled to schit...now is the time to look out for AMERICANS.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
That’s BS. I heard that a lot of students who are listed as dependents aren’t eligible for the $1200 stimulus check AND their parents won’t get the $500 for them being dependents. So these people and their families get NOTHING, but illegal immigrants get the $1200?
justhere4comm
Banned
Source required.
How about Uber? Amazon? Walmart?
How about Uber? Amazon? Walmart?
HIT4ME
Well-known member
It's funny you bring up Blaha. That's the first thing that came to my mind too. Also...not sure I understand how OpSpecs could possibly prohibit someone from disclosing the country they are in? Unless he meant SpecOps - but then I don't know how many people actually involved with SpecOps would confuse it for OpSpecs?
Yeah, we don't care if you link the interview. We didn't bring it up. If you wish to use it as evidence, use it, if not - it's meaningless. But if it does exist, and you do understand it, it isn't complicated. That much is on full display.
And you are calling on him to fact check himself? Have you brought up ONE fact that was actually shown to be true?
And speaking of checking - forget fact checking - you really need to turn on spell checking. I get typo's and sh!t but geez.
Ok, I'm going to assume by this point that English is not your first language, in which case you're doing OK. On the other hand, just like I can figure that out from your writing, I can also figure out that logic is not your strong suit.
If you think someone is implying you're ignorant....maybe you should stop implying it yourself. You come on here and tell everyone to do some research, admit that you are too lazy to dig up BASIC STATS, and then claim you have done all this in-depth research and have all these obscure, hard-to-find tidbits?
But let me help you out. If I apply your logic to this situation - then NOBODY dies from Covid-19. And Nobody dies from Flu. Or smoking cigarettes. Or any other number of diseases. Because there is ALWAYS an underlying mechanism of death - lung failure, kidney failure, liver failure, etc. So saying, "Well, his lungs failed because he was a smoker, it had nothing to do with Covid-19" is incredibly naive.
That type of logic is no more useful than saying, "Weaker people will die easier than stronger people and stronger people are more likely to survive." Gee. You should let the world know about your theories, game changing. You will probably win a Nobel.
You do realize that this is all over the news, right? It's not super secret. If you are in analysis of any sort, then I am pretty shocked at your inability to bring up even basic information to help support an argument.
I have provided statistics in my previous posts, they ripped your previous posts apart as being completely untrue.
And this is the first time in a SINGLE post someone has lied about their profession MORE THAN ONCE. You're in Analysis and Media? You work with medicine? And all this involves FAA clearance (OpSpecs)?
Unless you're a drug smuggler.....
thebigt
Legend
that is what AOC and her squad are demanding...and the democrats seem to kiss her ring!!!
this is the kind of nonsense democrats are holding out for on next stimulus bill.
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HIT4ME
Well-known member
muscleupcrohn
Legend
I can watch the YouTube videos/docs on Blaha all day; they're absolute gold. But remember, in the words of Blaha himself:
"So technically anything anyone finds about me, if they get a hold of it its illegal for them to have it. If they spread it around they're guilty of espionage."
justhere4comm
Banned
Imma need video and direct quote with a news source.
I call BS.
No Democrat wants any illegals that do not pay taxes to get a stimulus check. Don’t pay? Don’t get.
Pretty basic.
I call BS.
No Democrat wants any illegals that do not pay taxes to get a stimulus check. Don’t pay? Don’t get.
Pretty basic.
thebigt
Legend
muscleupcrohn
Legend
Apparently they're a group of "illegal/undocumented workers" who pay taxes using ITIN numbers instead of SSN numbers? No idea why we can't make it so that anyone who is here and has a job and is paying taxes is able to stay here and continue paying taxes, but that's a discussion for another time lol. No idea how you can file taxes and get an ITIN number if you're here illegally, but what do I know I guess.
justhere4comm
Banned
You don’t know what a valid source is. Got video? Direct quote?
Nope. I accept your apology.
Nope. I accept your apology.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
Apparently it's "illegal/undocumented workers" who pay taxes with ITIN instead of SSN. No idea how you can be here illegally and file taxes and have an ITIN, but then again, I'm far from an expert on tax and/or immigration policy. I can admit that much.
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justhere4comm
Banned
You don’t know what a valid source is. Got video? Direct quote?
Nope. I accept your apology.
Nope. I accept your apology.
justhere4comm
Banned
You don’t know what a valid source is. Got video? Direct quote?
Nope. I accept your apology.
Nope. I accept your apology.
justhere4comm
Banned
You don’t know what a valid source is. Got video? Direct quote?
Nope. I accept your apology.
Nope. I accept your apology.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
Man, this forum is acting up today. That's 5 of the same post!
thebigt
Legend
the key word is illegal...why do we want to reward someone who is here illegally. that is a slap in the face to all of those who have gone through the rigorous steps of migrating LEGALLY.
besides, now is the time to be concerned about AMERICAN CITIZENS, isn't that who politicians were elected to represent?
justhere4comm
Banned
Wait. You mean the pay taxes?
So, UBER... do their 'employees' pay taxes? Does UBER get a bailout? Those people are legal though...
Don't pay. You no play.
So, UBER... do their 'employees' pay taxes? Does UBER get a bailout? Those people are legal though...
Don't pay. You no play.
justhere4comm
Banned
You don’t know what a valid source is. Got video? Direct quote?
Nope. I accept your apology.
Nope. I accept your apology.
muscleupcrohn
Legend
I'm just saying that if someone is somehow living in the US, working full time, and paying taxes (and hasn't committed any crimes while here, besides being here illegally I suppose), there should be a way for them to be able to stay, as they've demonstrated that they are contributing members of society and not burdens on the system. Not everyone who is here illegally actually pays taxes.