Anyone worried if Corona virus keeps spreading the gyms will shut down?

thebigt

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In the states that are taking a while to re-open, even with limits, I think this is going to occur. At least with small business. I think it is difficult for these people to watch their business get run into the ground while other states are open.

I think if the entire country had a set date versus leaving it up to the states, then we would have less defiance.
I disagree, no matter what they do at least 20% of population will be defiant, imo.
 

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Is this any of y’alls gym ?


It's about an hour from me. Give them credit for opening.

Now Governor Murphy who is by far one of the biggest dip shits of All time, maybe ever, was supposed to be on a conference call today with several gym owners and local business owners to hear their proposal on new safety protocols.

This guy no showed the conference call. Everyone was very optimistic about it being there were hundreds of people on the beaches and boardwalks this past weekend with basically no distancing at All.

I feel so stuck. Im getting ancy, i work and come home, like many many others right now.
 
lionking999

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Is this any of y’alls gym ?


10 minutes from me but not a member. I really hope they have started a trend in the right direction. As far as i know, they had a conference call with our congressmen and they said they are taking gyms opening seriously. Only time will tell
 
justhere4comm

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Oddly enough, I've been so preocupied with working out and losing weight since this all began, I've avoided the booze cabinet completely. Believe me, working remotely had me wondering why I hadn't had some nice Bloody Mary's, or Sakatinis... I'm just too damned busy to drink.

I've got about 3 more weeks to go with this cut, then I'm going to have that Sakatini, or maybe I'll have that special James Bond Martini... I'm open to ideas. I'll start a new thread about this in General Chat, and link from here.

 
Ricky10

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I disagree, no matter what they do at least 20% of population will be defiant, imo.
Defiance is now a huge X-factor IMO. It will likely lead to backtracking of the phased reopening schedule in many states. Things are heating up again in my hospital. A few positives and a slew of symptomatic PUIs were slamming us today.

As the weather has gotten better, people have already been traveling across our border from Massachusetts and other fairly local states that have a much higher degree of infections than ourselves. It’s just going to get worse as these people ignore the 14 day self quarantine order to visit their summer camps. It’s an honor system that has already obviously failed, as people are also coming to visit their family here and have subsequently made them sick.

People coming from states with confirmed high prevalence act in their own best interest, and without regard for the detriment it will have on our citizens and pivotal reopening process. In the next coming months, out of state visitors will have to be completely prohibited if we are to have any hope of making progress in the right direction.
 
thebigt

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Defiance is now a huge X-factor IMO. It will likely lead to backtracking of the phased reopening schedule in many states. Things are heating up again in my hospital. A few positives and a slew of symptomatic PUIs were slamming us today.

As the weather has gotten better, people have already been traveling across our border from Massachusetts and other fairly local states that have a much higher degree of infections than ourselves. It’s just going to get worse as these people ignore the 14 day self quarantine order to visit their summer camps. It’s an honor system that has already obviously failed, as people are also coming to visit their family here and have subsequently made them sick.

People coming from states with confirmed high prevalence act in their own best interest, and without regard for the detriment it will have on our citizens and pivotal reopening process. In the next coming months, out of state visitors will have to be completely prohibited if we are to have any hope of making progress in the right direction.
it is same here in my small city, we are right on the border with Illinois. we have opened up they haven't, parking lots are full of vehicles with Illinois plates.

I predict that by this time next week cases here will have at least tripled, stores aren't limiting people inside and hardly anyone is wearing masks.
 
Ricky10

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Oddly enough, I've been so preocupied with working out and losing weight since this all began, I've avoided the booze cabinet completely. Believe me, working remotely had me wondering why I hadn't had some nice Bloody Mary's, or Sakatinis... I'm just too damned busy to drink.

I've got about 3 more weeks to go with this cut, then I'm going to have that Sakatini, or maybe I'll have that special James Bond Martini... I'm open to ideas. I'll start a new thread about this in General Chat, and link from here.

Other than to mask depression, I don’t understand why people are reportedly drinking more since the stay at home orders went into effect. When I drink (which is very seldom in recent years), the last thing I want to do is chill at my house. I like to go out to see people and do things. Or do things to people, and also have them do things to me..
 
justhere4comm

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Other than to mask depression, I don’t understand why people are reportedly drinking more since the stay at home orders went into effect. When I drink (which is very seldom in recent years), the last thing I want to do is chill at my house. I like to go out to see people and do things. Or do things to people, and also have them do things to me..
True. I saw a video of a guy walking down his block on recycling day, and every single house had bottles of booze.. it was surreal. This whole Covid-19 has people going overboard with the drinking. Or are they just used to drinking that much when they go out, and can't right now? If so, no wonder we are a country filled with such unhealthy gluts.

But, I rarely drink in the first place; however I hate drinking out. It's expensive and I'm cheap. I drink while I'm feeling creative (artist)... Of course I'm an introvert. (mostly)
 

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Everyone is drinking in their front yards sitting in their driveways and hanging out. Getting to know the neighbors and having a good time. Social distancing and no drinking and driving. But again we all have 3+ kids per house so good times.
 
HIT4ME

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I am on Cape Cod. We had heavy traffic coming onto the Cape this past weekend. Not quite like the normal summer tourist traffic but pretty scary considering. We are going to have all these visitors from all over...a lot from NYC...coming to this tiny peninsula and spreading this around.

I am not sure what people think has actually changed since March 1. We still have no vaccine, no reliable treatment and a confirmed death rate ver 6% and climbing.

We still have herd immunity or total avoidance as our only two options. If you are for heard immunity and you believe that only 1 out of every 10 people who get this disease is being counted - then we will need at least 50% of almost 330 million people to get infected. At a 0.6% death rate (1/10 of the confirmed death rate) - thats 990,000 people dead.

So is this just accepted now or are people just ignoring reality?

I think it is funny.

March 1 - this isn't going to be so bad.

MAY 1st - Why didn't they do something about this sooner?

May 19th - let's get in a car and go to Cape Cod or go to the restaurant that just reopened or go to the retail store that just reopened.

I guess I may be the only person who sees the irony here.
 
thebigt

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I am on Cape Cod. We had heavy traffic coming onto the Cape this past weekend. Not quite like the normal summer tourist traffic but pretty scary considering. We are going to have all these visitors from all over...a lot from NYC...coming to this tiny peninsula and spreading this around.

I am not sure what people think has actually changed since March 1. We still have no vaccine, no reliable treatment and a confirmed death rate ver 6% and climbing.

We still have herd immunity or total avoidance as our only two options. If you are for heard immunity and you believe that only 1 out of every 10 people who get this disease is being counted - then we will need at least 50% of almost 330 million people to get infected. At a 0.6% death rate (1/10 of the confirmed death rate) - thats 990,000 people dead.

So is this just accepted now or are people just ignoring reality?

I think it is funny.

March 1 - this isn't going to be so bad.

MAY 1st - Why didn't they do something about this sooner?

May 19th - let's get in a car and go to Cape Cod or go to the restaurant that just reopened or go to the retail store that just reopened.

I guess I may be the only person who sees the irony here.
the small city where I live in Indiana borders Illinois which has been harder hit than us..we just opened up they haven't-parking lots everywhere are full of Illinois plates.
by this time next week I bet our numbers will have more than tripled.
 
BamBam54

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We still have herd immunity or total avoidance as our only two options. If you are for heard immunity and you believe that only 1 out of every 10 people who get this disease is being counted - then we will need at least 50% of almost 330 million people to get infected. At a 0.6% death rate (1/10 of the confirmed death rate) - thats 990,000 people dead.
I don't see a way around this. Lock down costs $2 trillion a month.... and a vaccine is not coming any time soon. So that only leaves the slow painful crawl towards herd immunity and potentially a million dead.

Less if the vaccine gets here first.

Unless there is some other Plan D to fund the country while simultaneously protecting everyone from dying via an invisible highly contagious virus.....
 
Ricky10

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I am on Cape Cod. We had heavy traffic coming onto the Cape this past weekend. Not quite like the normal summer tourist traffic but pretty scary considering. We are going to have all these visitors from all over...a lot from NYC...coming to this tiny peninsula and spreading this around.

I am not sure what people think has actually changed since March 1. We still have no vaccine, no reliable treatment and a confirmed death rate ver 6% and climbing.

We still have herd immunity or total avoidance as our only two options. If you are for heard immunity and you believe that only 1 out of every 10 people who get this disease is being counted - then we will need at least 50% of almost 330 million people to get infected. At a 0.6% death rate (1/10 of the confirmed death rate) - thats 990,000 people dead.

So is this just accepted now or are people just ignoring reality?

I think it is funny.

March 1 - this isn't going to be so bad.

MAY 1st - Why didn't they do something about this sooner?

May 19th - let's get in a car and go to Cape Cod or go to the restaurant that just reopened or go to the retail store that just reopened.

I guess I may be the only person who sees the irony here.
You will definitely face the same problems we will be contending with. The tourism industry simply can’t take priority over public safety. While some establishments aren’t going to be open, people are still going to travel to their own properties and then frequent local public areas/essential businesses that are open.

Hopefully it won’t take too long before the governors realize that the “mandatory” 14 day self quarantine order for people crossing our state borders isn’t doing anything. It’s being treated as a mere suggestion to be ignored.

There will also be some hostility and violent acts occurring between local citizens and out of state travelers. It’s just a matter of time..
 
thebigt

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I don't see a way around this. Lock down costs $2 trillion a month.... and a vaccine is not coming any time soon. So that only leaves the slow painful crawl towards herd immunity and potentially a million dead.

Less if the vaccine gets here first.

Unless there is some other Plan D to fund the country while simultaneously protecting everyone from dying via an invisible highly contagious virus.....
the problem is that the employees at stores are high risk of getting virus, what happens if there is no one to run stores?
 
BamBam54

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the problem is that the employees at stores are high risk of getting virus, what happens if there is no one to run stores?
The million that will potentially die won't be all at one time (maybe two+ years) or all in one area. And the vast majority are beyond retirement age so will not affect the operation of stores much if at all.

Just a horrible toll both emotionally and financially.
 
thebigt

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The million that will potentially die won't be all at one time (maybe two+ years) or all in one area. And the vast majority are beyond retirement age so will not affect the operation of stores much if at all.

Just a horrible toll both emotionally and financially.
you can be sick and not die, what if employees get sick with virus do you think they should still work?
 
muscleupcrohn

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you can be sick and not die, what if employees get sick with virus do you think they should still work?
No. I think experts pretty much universally agree that if you have the virus you should NOT be working while you have it. I don’t think anyone is arguing otherwise, besides maybe the employers who don’t want to be understaffed. But I bet if they actually had to work in close proximity as said sick workers, I bet they’d change their tunes real quick.
 
Smont

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True. I saw a video of a guy walking down his block on recycling day, and every single house had bottles of booze.. it was surreal. This whole Covid-19 has people going overboard with the drinking. Or are they just used to drinking that much when they go out, and can't right now? If so, no wonder we are a country filled with such unhealthy gluts.

But, I rarely drink in the first place; however I hate drinking out. It's expensive and I'm cheap. I drink while I'm feeling creative (artist)... Of course I'm an introvert. (mostly)
I'm the opposite, when I was drinking it was never at home, I had to go out every night cus I felt like I was missing something. Like there was going to be something epic even tho it was the same nonsense every night. At the worst point it was a $700 a week habit. Every night I went out with a $100 and came home with 0-$10. I made enough money to pay my rent with 1 paycheck but would find myself scrambling for rent money every month.
 
BamBam54

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you can be sick and not die, what if employees get sick with virus do you think they should still work?
I think we have to follow the best practices learned thus far which includes staying home if sick for the 14 days, etc. But then too, you have people who get through the virus recovering, and likely never affected by Covid again ready to work without further interruption! So as we work towards herd immunity the pool of people free and clear with antibodies will continue to grow making the job market even more stable and staffed as time goes on.

Herd immunity is the same tough road we are in now at the start. But offers the promise of continually getting better once over the hump. Compared to the current version where stores are being forced to close, and we lock down stuck in the moment, likely prolonging the inevitable at a couple trillion per month.

The only caveat is that we can't overwhelm hospitals along the way, and throttle back when necessary.
 
HIT4ME

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I don't see a way around this. Lock down costs $2 trillion a month.... and a vaccine is not coming any time soon. So that only leaves the slow painful crawl towards herd immunity and potentially a million dead.

Less if the vaccine gets here first.

Unless there is some other Plan D to fund the country while simultaneously protecting everyone from dying via an invisible highly contagious virus.....
Your assumption that this costs us $2 trillion/month is flawed. I'm not saying that we aren't bleeding money, but the number is off because you're counting all of the spending in a bubble. The government spends massive amounts of money per month, even without Covid, and some of that spending has been shifted.

Further, "slow painful crawl towards herd immunity and potentially a million dead." isn't how I would characterize it. Over the last 2-3 months we've lost 90,000 lives. And that is with lock downs that people are complaining about. And toward "potentially a million" dead is a vast mischaracterization. That is an OPTIMISTIC death count. Do you really believe we have any solid evidence that only 1 out of 10 people who get this are showing up in the hospital? Where is the data that shows this? I'm not talking non-peer reviewed news articles that used research that was obtained using subjects from Facebook, and used tests with high false positive rates that dramatically skewed the data. Most of the people who have a solid grasp of the data - believe the death count is dramatically understated.

I was talking to a dr. friend of mine who was saying he was looking at the stats in his hospital and he couldn't believe that our county is at 6% death rate. He stated, as I have read elsewhere, that the flu numbers are totally calculated. Nobody is actually reporting them and confirming them like this. If they were, the flu numbers would probably be much lower.

I was intentionally skewing my numbers to be as optimistic as possible - that's a minimum. It's also based on the data we've obtained during this lockdown - if it runs free, of course that will increase in rate and size.

But I do agree on two points. A vaccine, if one works and is discovered quickly, is probably the best way to correct this, and finding another plan is very difficult. I'm not sure we can sustain the economic outfall of this regardless of which direction we go.

You will definitely face the same problems we will be contending with. The tourism industry simply can’t take priority over public safety. While some establishments aren’t going to be open, people are still going to travel to their own properties and then frequent local public areas/essential businesses that are open.

Hopefully it won’t take too long before the governors realize that the “mandatory” 14 day self quarantine order for people crossing our state borders isn’t doing anything. It’s being treated as a mere suggestion to be ignored.

There will also be some hostility and violent acts occurring between local citizens and out of state travelers. It’s just a matter of time..
Yeah, and it won't. Everyone is acting like we can simply open businesses and it will be fine. We have an ice cream shop where I live that has been in business for 19 years. We are a seasonal area and most businesses close down during the winter, open during the summer and make their money from all the tourism. This ice cream shop opened its doors 2 weeks ago with a plan in place to try to enforce social distancing. It turned into such a sh1t show that after 1 day open and the customers berating teenage girls and not following rules, the guy that owns it decided to just shut down because he realized being open during all of this would destroy the business he has spent 19 years building.

Of course, what's it going to do when some restaurant opens up and an asymptomatic customer comes in to have a meal and infects 100 other patrons and they all get sick and 6 of them die? I know when a restaurant has food poisoning cases like that, it's pretty damaging. I wouldn't want that to be my restaurant's reputation. Are people gonna give that restaurant a pass when they want a meal?

The real issue though, where I live, is that we have 3 small hospitals that service the area. They generally run at 96% capacity, and during a heavy flu season, etc. may run over 100% capacity for brief periods. You throw 6 million tourists in a cluster and spread sickness, they will be overrun in a heart beat. But all of these people coming to their summer homes aren't thinking about the economics of the area and how we really don't have the capacity that other areas do because things are shut down for 5+ months of the year and our population is a small fraction of what they see in the summer. We just can't support the infrastructure year round to handle something like this.

the problem is that the employees at stores are high risk of getting virus, what happens if there is no one to run stores?
This is a great point. I think people are overlooking the fact that even if we open, it won't be business as normal.

As a tangent, I think it really speaks toward having systems in place. I do know some businesses and restaurants around here that are doing a good job of making things work. I now one chinese food restaurant that makes you call in your order, pay with a card, and then call again when you are there to pick it up. They will put the food out on a table after you call and you come and get it. Their employees have almost no exposure to customers, which I think is the real key. Of course, this restaurant is facing increased labor costs to keep all this going, and their suppliers are doing the same thing so their supplies are higher and the restaurant has implemented a 10% surcharge. There's a word for that in economics - inflation.

Further, I do some work with logistics companies and they have implemented health checks and all kinds of strategies. This may become more of the norm.

But these all have an economic cost as well - so if the government is spending 1T to keep people home or losing 1T in tax dollars because all of these businesses have increased expenses - what is really better long term?

The million that will potentially die won't be all at one time (maybe two+ years) or all in one area. And the vast majority are beyond retirement age so will not affect the operation of stores much if at all.

Just a horrible toll both emotionally and financially.
No, they won't all be dying at once - mostly. But of course, again, that million is a highly optimistic number. Other data has suggested that 80% of the patients aren't being counted, not 90% and even this would double that death rate. And 50% infection rate to reach heard immunity is the most optimistic number anyone has. It may need to be as high as a 90% infection rate. Do that math.

90% of 330,000,000 = 297,000,000
0.6% of 297,000,000 = 1,782,000
And if it's actually closer to 1.2% infected death rate (which I think is still reasonable) - over 3.5M deaths.

Sure, maybe it will take 3-4 years. But that only serves to increase the death rate, not reduce it - because new people will be born and they will need to be infected in order to hit that 50-90% number as well.

And keep in mind, approx. 3 weeks ago I was having an argument on here where people were telling me, "Maybe 100,000 people will die from this at most" and 3 weeks before that we were thinking, "This is like the flu. 60,000 people die from the flu and that's the number we're gonna hit with this."

I do agree with the sentiment that shutting down is extremely costly, and I'm not sure what the alternative plan is to make this all work - but the two options that are on the table are both pretty bad and one of them really requires us to ignore a lot of reality and try to push ahead with business as usual - which isn't really a plan either.
 
BamBam54

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Further, "slow painful crawl towards herd immunity and potentially a million dead." isn't how I would characterize it. Over the last 2-3 months we've lost 90,000 lives. And that is with lock downs that people are complaining about. And toward "potentially a million" dead is a vast mischaracterization. That is an OPTIMISTIC death count. Do you really believe we have any solid evidence that only 1 out of 10 people who get this are showing up in the hospital? Where is the data that shows this? I'm not talking non-peer reviewed news articles that used research that was obtained using subjects from Facebook, and used tests with high false positive rates that dramatically skewed the data. Most of the people who have a solid grasp of the data - believe the death count is dramatically understated.
The math comes from the best data available via the NY anti-body random sampling/study. I agree all of the other so-called claims you reference have been bogus/false/exaggerated. In the new york study they found basically two things....

1) In NYC where over 20% of the population had antibodies roughly 0.2% of the population died. Carrying that out, 100% would equal 1%. And we all know that herd immunity is reached before 100% population infection. So somewhat less.

2) In more upstate NY, they found roughly 3% of the general population had been infected thus far. Carrying that out, it would mean roughly 9 million of the total US population thus far. Working that into the total US death rate you again get somewhere between 1.0 and 0.5% fatality rate.

Rough numbers - If it takes 60% of the population to reach herd immunity (min) that is 200 million people. So a very fair estimate is that 1-2 million people are at risk. And that is over several years. Possibly offset by a vaccine arriving earlier, lowering that number. And not counting that some of the severely old/injured dying from covid in nursing homes would have made it 2 more years either way.

But yeah, there is some reasonable thought behind the numbers.

Similar conclusions reached here
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/antibody-tests-support-whats-been-obvious-covid-19-is-much-more-lethal-than-flu/2020/04/28/2fc215d8-87f7-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html

Similar Indiana study results
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/indiana-reopening-coronavirus-testing.html
 
BamBam54

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Your assumption that this costs us $2 trillion/month is flawed. I'm not saying that we aren't bleeding money, but the number is off because you're counting all of the spending in a bubble. The government spends massive amounts of money per month, even without Covid, and some of that spending has been shifted.

On the dollars, not saying I have the exact figure. Perhaps its lower. How many trillion do you think is correct? Because the last I checked we only had (-$22) trillion in the bank. I was just estimating from the additional stimulus and fed estimates for the increase to national debt over these last couple months... figuring those budget numbers already include existing spending in those numbers.

And the argument could also be made that each month of shutdown costs even MORE than $2 trillion due to more lasting impact to the economy. After a month shutdown, not all of those businesses will survive or employees go back to work. And each month shutdown could mean several months of phased recovery just to reach back to square one.

Basically its a sh1t ton of money, and way more than we can afford by any measure... so extended lockdown/slowdown does not seem to be a viable solution either. And those promoting it don't seem to focus much on the dollars involved.
 
HIT4ME

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Good articles, they seem to be fairly balanced. Your observations are clouded by your beliefs though.

You state that NY had a 0.2% death rate - but the article says otherwise, "The death rate is much, much lower,” Cuomo said Monday, referring to the serology tests. He said the New York state rate appears to be 0.5 percent — which is one death per 200 infections."

That's 2.5X higher than your 0.2%, sig figs be d#mned.

Your 0.2% comes from:

"The most controversial such study came out of Santa Clara County, Calif., the heart of Silicon Valley. It claimed that the true number of infections in the county in early April may have been 50 to 85 times the official coronavirus case counts. Extrapolating from that, it gave an estimated infection fatality rate of between 0.12 and 0.2 percent."

Which is a study we can agree is junk. It requires that only 2 out of every hundred cases or more are being counted. (i.e. - the infection rate is 50X or more than what we are reporting).

I haven't really read through the New York data either - I'd like to see the entire study and spend some time on it. One of the big issues in all of this is statistical significance. You can't measure 0.X% when you only have X.0% resolution.

More importantly, when you have a test coming back at 2.8% and a false positive rate potentially higher than 1% - your numbers could be way, way off.

But to shed even more concern on these tests - you've posted one test from NYC that shows 25% of the population has been infected and extrapolates 0.5% death rate. We know that the confirmed case death rate in NY is 8+%.

In your second study, you have Indiana with a 2.8% population infection rate and a confirmed case death rate of 5.8%.

Doesn't that all but put a nail in the coffin of the "open everything back up" argument? It would potentially indicate that more wide-spread infections will increase death rates by almost 35% - minimum. And of course, this would make sense, based on more people needing resources that aren't available.

These studies suggest that in Indiana, 2.8% of the population, or 188,496 people, has been infected. We are showing 28,705 confirmed cases in this state. That means we are confirming 15.2% of the cases - or just a little more than 1 out of every 7 cases. (not 10).

Running the math - we have 330,000,000 Americans X 60% for herd immunity = 198,000,000

15% of those end up in the hospital = 29,700,000

6% of the confirmed cases die (the optimistic view - since it is over 8% in NY) = 1,782,000 deaths.

Now, using the New York City model -

25% of the population, or 2.1M people have been infected. We have confirmed 353,000 of these - or 16.8% of the infections - just about 1 out of every 6.

198,000,000 Americans needed for heard immunity X 16.8% in the hospital = 33,264,000 hospitalizations.

8.5% death rate of NYC X 33,264,000 = 2,827,440 dead Americans.

That's assuming herd immunity is reached at 60%. It could be as low as 50% or as high as 90%. 90% would increase all of these numbers by 50% of course, whereas 50% would decrease the numbers by about 16% - I'd say that pretty squarely falls in the optimistic side of things.

Like I said, maybe it's over 4 years or so - but that's the potential for 1M a year in some scenarios. And it is interesting that I was originally using an optimistic 1 out of every 10 cases is being caught and you provided 2 studies that show it's more like 1 out of every 6-7 cases is being caught - which means the antibody headlines are even more overplayed than we thought. 1 out of 10 may have been optimistic to the tune of being 66% too low.
 
HIT4ME

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On the dollars, not saying I have the exact figure. Perhaps its lower. How many trillion do you think is correct? Because the last I checked we only had (-$22) trillion in the bank. I was just estimating from the additional stimulus and fed estimates for the increase to national debt over these last couple months... figuring those budget numbers already include existing spending in those numbers.

And the argument could also be made that each month of shutdown costs even MORE than $2 trillion due to more lasting impact to the economy. After a month shutdown, not all of those businesses will survive or employees go back to work. And each month shutdown could mean several months of phased recovery just to reach back to square one.

Basically its a sh1t ton of money, and way more than we can afford by any measure... so extended lockdown/slowdown does not seem to be a viable solution either. And those promoting it don't seem to focus much on the dollars involved.
Yeah, like you, I don't have an answer and I don't blame you for not having any answer either. It's way to complicated for me to even venture a guess and you bring in some more good points about complicating factors. I can agree we are bleeding money way too fast and it isn't a long term solution. We need a new plan, I don't know what that is. But going back to business as normal when nothing has really changed isn't a viable plan either. It's just foolish. Not saying YOU are foolish, because I can get where you're coming from and I think you're being reasonable. Spending this money without jobs, without production, etc. is unsustainable and we have to do something and right now we have two options - spend the money or go back to work.

Neither option is sustainable though. We need a vaccine or we need some new ideas - even if it is new ideas about how we prevent the spread and getting small businesses to have procedures in place and resources available that help make their employees and customers safer. I don't have an answer.

My point is that going back to business as usual is going to end up being very devestating and I think a lot of people are ignoring it and wanting to believe everything will be fine.

Like I said,

March 1 - Oh, this will be fine.

May 1 - Why didn't the gov't do something more, sooner!?

May 18th - Ok, it's over, even though nothing has changed - let's get back to business and start hanging out at restaurants again.

June 15th - "Why didn't the government prevent everything from opening back up!?"
 
muscleupcrohn

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Your assumption that this costs us $2 trillion/month is flawed. I'm not saying that we aren't bleeding money, but the number is off because you're counting all of the spending in a bubble. The government spends massive amounts of money per month, even without Covid, and some of that spending has been shifted.

Further, "slow painful crawl towards herd immunity and potentially a million dead." isn't how I would characterize it. Over the last 2-3 months we've lost 90,000 lives. And that is with lock downs that people are complaining about. And toward "potentially a million" dead is a vast mischaracterization. That is an OPTIMISTIC death count. Do you really believe we have any solid evidence that only 1 out of 10 people who get this are showing up in the hospital? Where is the data that shows this? I'm not talking non-peer reviewed news articles that used research that was obtained using subjects from Facebook, and used tests with high false positive rates that dramatically skewed the data. Most of the people who have a solid grasp of the data - believe the death count is dramatically understated.

I was talking to a dr. friend of mine who was saying he was looking at the stats in his hospital and he couldn't believe that our county is at 6% death rate. He stated, as I have read elsewhere, that the flu numbers are totally calculated. Nobody is actually reporting them and confirming them like this. If they were, the flu numbers would probably be much lower.

I was intentionally skewing my numbers to be as optimistic as possible - that's a minimum. It's also based on the data we've obtained during this lockdown - if it runs free, of course that will increase in rate and size.

But I do agree on two points. A vaccine, if one works and is discovered quickly, is probably the best way to correct this, and finding another plan is very difficult. I'm not sure we can sustain the economic outfall of this regardless of which direction we go.



Yeah, and it won't. Everyone is acting like we can simply open businesses and it will be fine. We have an ice cream shop where I live that has been in business for 19 years. We are a seasonal area and most businesses close down during the winter, open during the summer and make their money from all the tourism. This ice cream shop opened its doors 2 weeks ago with a plan in place to try to enforce social distancing. It turned into such a sh1t show that after 1 day open and the customers berating teenage girls and not following rules, the guy that owns it decided to just shut down because he realized being open during all of this would destroy the business he has spent 19 years building.

Of course, what's it going to do when some restaurant opens up and an asymptomatic customer comes in to have a meal and infects 100 other patrons and they all get sick and 6 of them die? I know when a restaurant has food poisoning cases like that, it's pretty damaging. I wouldn't want that to be my restaurant's reputation. Are people gonna give that restaurant a pass when they want a meal?

The real issue though, where I live, is that we have 3 small hospitals that service the area. They generally run at 96% capacity, and during a heavy flu season, etc. may run over 100% capacity for brief periods. You throw 6 million tourists in a cluster and spread sickness, they will be overrun in a heart beat. But all of these people coming to their summer homes aren't thinking about the economics of the area and how we really don't have the capacity that other areas do because things are shut down for 5+ months of the year and our population is a small fraction of what they see in the summer. We just can't support the infrastructure year round to handle something like this.



This is a great point. I think people are overlooking the fact that even if we open, it won't be business as normal.

As a tangent, I think it really speaks toward having systems in place. I do know some businesses and restaurants around here that are doing a good job of making things work. I now one chinese food restaurant that makes you call in your order, pay with a card, and then call again when you are there to pick it up. They will put the food out on a table after you call and you come and get it. Their employees have almost no exposure to customers, which I think is the real key. Of course, this restaurant is facing increased labor costs to keep all this going, and their suppliers are doing the same thing so their supplies are higher and the restaurant has implemented a 10% surcharge. There's a word for that in economics - inflation.

Further, I do some work with logistics companies and they have implemented health checks and all kinds of strategies. This may become more of the norm.

But these all have an economic cost as well - so if the government is spending 1T to keep people home or losing 1T in tax dollars because all of these businesses have increased expenses - what is really better long term?



No, they won't all be dying at once - mostly. But of course, again, that million is a highly optimistic number. Other data has suggested that 80% of the patients aren't being counted, not 90% and even this would double that death rate. And 50% infection rate to reach heard immunity is the most optimistic number anyone has. It may need to be as high as a 90% infection rate. Do that math.

90% of 330,000,000 = 297,000,000
0.6% of 297,000,000 = 1,782,000
And if it's actually closer to 1.2% infected death rate (which I think is still reasonable) - over 3.5M deaths.

Sure, maybe it will take 3-4 years. But that only serves to increase the death rate, not reduce it - because new people will be born and they will need to be infected in order to hit that 50-90% number as well.

And keep in mind, approx. 3 weeks ago I was having an argument on here where people were telling me, "Maybe 100,000 people will die from this at most" and 3 weeks before that we were thinking, "This is like the flu. 60,000 people die from the flu and that's the number we're gonna hit with this."

I do agree with the sentiment that shutting down is extremely costly, and I'm not sure what the alternative plan is to make this all work - but the two options that are on the table are both pretty bad and one of them really requires us to ignore a lot of reality and try to push ahead with business as usual - which isn't really a plan either.
Looking at data from NYC, assuming 1/5 of the population already had the virus (a high end estimate based on antibody tests), the ~8.175 million population of NYC, and the >15,000 deaths, we get a death rate of ~1%.

Extrapolate that to the entire US population of ~328,000,000, and assume that 70% of the population got the virus (the low end of what’s needed to develop herd immunity), and you’re looking at over 2,250,000 dead before the country develops herd immunity in a do-nothing scenario.

Over 2.25 million.

Sources:




 
thebigt

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The math comes from the best data available via the NY anti-body random sampling/study. I agree all of the other so-called claims you reference have been bogus/false/exaggerated. In the new york study they found basically two things....

1) In NYC where over 20% of the population had antibodies roughly 0.2% of the population died. Carrying that out, 100% would equal 1%. And we all know that herd immunity is reached before 100% population infection. So somewhat less.

2) In more upstate NY, they found roughly 3% of the general population had been infected thus far. Carrying that out, it would mean roughly 9 million of the total US population thus far. Working that into the total US death rate you again get somewhere between 1.0 and 0.5% fatality rate.

Rough numbers - If it takes 60% of the population to reach herd immunity (min) that is 200 million people. So a very fair estimate is that 1-2 million people are at risk. And that is over several years. Possibly offset by a vaccine arriving earlier, lowering that number. And not counting that some of the severely old/injured dying from covid in nursing homes would have made it 2 more years either way.

But yeah, there is some reasonable thought behind the numbers.

Similar conclusions reached here
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/antibody-tests-support-whats-been-obvious-covid-19-is-much-more-lethal-than-flu/2020/04/28/2fc215d8-87f7-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html

Similar Indiana study results
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/indiana-reopening-coronavirus-testing.html
the only thing the new York times is good for is lining bird cages...I live in Indiana and distancing, limiting and masks are not being complied with...stores are packed with way to many people and social distancing is not being practiced, hardly any customers are wearing masks and lots of out of state people shopping here.

mark my word, Indiana is going to pay dearly for stupidity of republican governor and I am a stone cold republican.
 
muscleupcrohn

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the only thing the new York times is good for is lining bird cages...I live in Indiana and distancing, limiting and masks are not being complied with...stores are packed with way to many people and social distancing is not being practiced, hardly any customers are wearing masks and lots of out of state people shopping here.

mark my word, Indiana is going to pay dearly for stupidity of republican governor and I am a stone cold republican.
It’s crazy that people can’t follow basic rules when things do open up. It’s like they don’t understand that if they don’t respect some level of limitations on capacity and masks, things will be totally shut down again. This all-or-nothing attitude of “its my right to do whatever the hell I want whenever the hell I want because ‘Murcia” is so unpatriotic really. Like these people who claim to be proud Americans won’t do anything that even slightly inconveniences them to help the country as a whole.
 
thebigt

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It’s crazy that people can’t follow basic rules when things do open up. It’s like they don’t understand that if they don’t respect some level of limitations on capacity and masks, things will be totally shut down again. This all-or-nothing attitude of “its my right to do whatever the hell I want whenever the hell I want because ‘Murcia” is so unpatriotic really. Like these people who claim to be proud Americans won’t do anything that even slightly inconveniences them to help the country as a whole.
this really encapsulates my thoughts...I am a republican and I want things to open up, but g'dammit use some commonsense and if rules can't or won't be enforced I have no problem with shutting everything but necessary stores down again.

hold stores responsible...either they limit how many people are in store and enforce masks or shut their asses down and hit them with massive fines. im seriously sick and tired of the bullshyt!!!
 
BamBam54

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Good articles, they seem to be fairly balanced. Your observations are clouded by your beliefs though.

You state that NY had a 0.2% death rate - but the article says otherwise, "The death rate is much, much lower,” Cuomo said Monday, referring to the serology tests. He said the New York state rate appears to be 0.5 percent — which is one death per 200 infections."

That's 2.5X higher than your 0.2%, sig figs be d#mned.

Just to be fair, your beliefs about my beliefs might be clouding your beliefs. LOL Or maybe I didn't make myself as clear in that prior post as I would have liked. :)

To be extra clear (because I like math) I DO NOT think the covid fatality rate is 0.2% nor do I think I stated that. What I DID say was that the NY study came up with 20% of the population infected = 0.2% of population dead.... meaning (to me) that this makes me think if 20% = 0.2 then 40% = 0.4 and 60% = 0.6 up to 100% of the population= 1.0 fatality rate.

And then I tried to show other examples that also put the fatality rate somewhere in the 1% - 0.5% range. Which is what I honestly believe with the data available thus far. I tried to express that a couple of times, maybe I was not as clear as I intended. FWIW - Cuomo talking about 0.5% is actually a little light because he used the current death count for current cases, when in fact those current cases will actually produce additional deaths because those documents cases are not done dying.

Important to note - I never posted in any way using numbers from the Santa Clara study. I think that is a garbage study. You apparently do too, but it gets you kind of fired up where you think any support for that came from me. It didn't.

The good thing about the NY study is that they had a heavy enough saturation of infected people to make the test inaccuracies less pronounced. You should give it a good read. I think its the best info we have right now.

In the big picture, I don't suggest we go back to business as usual... but that we DO go back to business. Using lessons learned as much as we can get people to comply without prison. I hate seeing inmates released because of covid, and then putting other people into prison because of covid. That would be ridiculous.

Along the way of doing our best to keep the country afloat, we might find the virus slow a little in the summer heat, it might pick up a little with more human activity, and it might pick up a lot with a 2nd seasonal wave this winter. But what other choice do we have? Push for the vaccine warp speed style.... get the antibody test fixed and fast so that those in the clear can resume a normal life and keep the economic engines pumping... while the rest of us try to cope as best we can with the new abnormal.
 
muscleupcrohn

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Just to be fair, your beliefs about my beliefs might be clouding your beliefs. LOL Or maybe I didn't make myself as clear in that prior post as I would have liked. :)

To be extra clear (because I like math) I DO NOT think the covid fatality rate is 0.2% nor do I think I stated that. What I DID say was that the NY study came up with 20% of the population infected = 0.2% of population dead.... meaning (to me) that this makes me think if 20% = 0.2 then 40% = 0.4 and 60% = 0.6 up to 100% of the population= 1.0 fatality rate.

And then I tried to show other examples that also put the fatality rate somewhere in the 1% - 0.5% range. Which is what I honestly believe with the data available thus far. I tried to express that a couple of times, maybe I was not as clear as I intended. FWIW - Cuomo talking about 0.5% is actually a little light because he used the current death count for current cases, when in fact those current cases will actually produce additional deaths because those documents cases are not done dying.

Important to note - I never posted in any way using numbers from the Santa Clara study. I think that is a garbage study. You apparently do too, but it gets you kind of fired up where you think any support for that came from me. It didn't.

The good thing about the NY study is that they had a heavy enough saturation of infected people to make the test inaccuracies less pronounced. You should give it a good read. I think its the best info we have right now.

In the big picture, I don't suggest we go back to business as usual... but that we DO go back to business. Using lessons learned as much as we can get people to comply without prison. I hate seeing inmates released because of covid, and then putting other people into prison because of covid. That would be ridiculous.

Along the way of doing our best to keep the country afloat, we might find the virus slow a little in the summer heat, it might pick up a little with more human activity, and it might pick up a lot with a 2nd seasonal wave this winter. But what other choice do we have? Push for the vaccine warp speed style.... get the antibody test fixed and fast so that those in the clear can resume a normal life and keep the economic engines pumping... while the rest of us try to cope as best we can with the new abnormal.
Check my post. Using NYC data, which I directly referenced and put links to, is pretty much 1%. But that’s using the 20% of NYC having got it according to antibody tests, which some people have criticized the methodology of, claiming they give overly high readings, which means that the actual number of cases could be lower, which would make the death rate higher than what I calculated. So 1% seems like a fairly reasonable estimate.
 
HIT4ME

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Just to be fair, your beliefs about my beliefs might be clouding your beliefs. LOL Or maybe I didn't make myself as clear in that prior post as I would have liked. :)

To be extra clear (because I like math) I DO NOT think the covid fatality rate is 0.2% nor do I think I stated that. What I DID say was that the NY study came up with 20% of the population infected = 0.2% of population dead.... meaning (to me) that this makes me think if 20% = 0.2 then 40% = 0.4 and 60% = 0.6 up to 100% of the population= 1.0 fatality rate.

And then I tried to show other examples that also put the fatality rate somewhere in the 1% - 0.5% range. Which is what I honestly believe with the data available thus far. I tried to express that a couple of times, maybe I was not as clear as I intended. FWIW - Cuomo talking about 0.5% is actually a little light because he used the current death count for current cases, when in fact those current cases will actually produce additional deaths because those documents cases are not done dying.

Important to note - I never posted in any way using numbers from the Santa Clara study. I think that is a garbage study. You apparently do too, but it gets you kind of fired up where you think any support for that came from me. It didn't.

The good thing about the NY study is that they had a heavy enough saturation of infected people to make the test inaccuracies less pronounced. You should give it a good read. I think its the best info we have right now.

In the big picture, I don't suggest we go back to business as usual... but that we DO go back to business. Using lessons learned as much as we can get people to comply without prison. I hate seeing inmates released because of covid, and then putting other people into prison because of covid. That would be ridiculous.

Along the way of doing our best to keep the country afloat, we might find the virus slow a little in the summer heat, it might pick up a little with more human activity, and it might pick up a lot with a 2nd seasonal wave this winter. But what other choice do we have? Push for the vaccine warp speed style.... get the antibody test fixed and fast so that those in the clear can resume a normal life and keep the economic engines pumping... while the rest of us try to cope as best we can with the new abnormal.
To be fair - I believe you could be right about my beliefs about your beliefs about...wait...what are we talking about again??

I get what you are saying I think with the 0.2%. I read the articles you posted and they were quoting the Santa Clara "study" (which I quoted) and that is where it looked like you were getting the 0.2% from, while the article also quoted Cuomo stating 0.5%...but I get now we were probably talking different things.

Also, I know you and I agree on the Santa Clara study. I just thought you might have read the article and misread the quotes to get the 0.2%...but as above, I get we were talking different things.

Yeah, I honestly don't think we are all that far apart in the end. I can understand someone using this data to think maybe the infection death rate is as low as 0.5% up to 1%. I personally think the data might turn out to be closer to 1.2% or so, but anything between 0.5-1.2% or so seems to be a reasonable guess in my opinion.

Still thats 10-30x higher than a bad flu and not to be taken lightly. And it doesn't really sound like you are advocating to take it lightly either.
 
HIT4ME

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Check my post. Using NYC data, which I directly referenced and put links to, is pretty much 1%. But that’s using the 20% of NYC having got it according to antibody tests, which some people have criticized the methodology of, claiming they give overly high readings, which means that the actual number of cases could be lower, which would make the death rate higher than what I calculated. So 1% seems like a fairly reasonable estimate.
Yeah, I think the 3 of us are all in the same ball park, and pretty much saying the same thing with the numbers.
 
BamBam54

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Acknowledging some good posts by Hit4Me and Muscleupchrohn for advancing a quality discussion here!

Another quicker example of quick math....

The current recorded US covid count is 1,593,486 confirmed cases with 94,963 recorded deaths. Call it an even 100k dead since many of those 1.5m cases are relatively recent and more of those cases still expected to die.

And if we can estimate roughly 3% of the total US population has been infected based on the general upstate-NY anti-body testing (some places in downtown NY higher, the majority of the country likely lower) that would mean about 10m total covid cases. With 100k deaths that would again put the real fatality rate around 1.0%. We shall see how that guesstimate hold up as testing continues....

I think the initial massive government reaction and lockdown was reasonable in the early days when cases/deaths were rising exponentially and watching what just happened in Italy. But as more data becomes available it appears we reacted as if this was 100x more deadly than the flu (who really knew at that time??) when it now appears more like 10-20x more deadly than the flu. Still plenty bad, but this is a virus that will be with us for years.... so we need a more workable long term plan than just hiding.
 
justhere4comm

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We delayed our response for too long with ample warning just like the rest of the world. That 100,000 deaths should be far less than that. Somebody didn't respond adequately... We had the same notice as the rest of the world, if not more.
 
HIT4ME

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Acknowledging some good posts by Hit4Me and Muscleupchrohn for advancing a quality discussion here!

Another quicker example of quick math....

The current recorded US covid count is 1,593,486 confirmed cases with 94,963 recorded deaths. Call it an even 100k dead since many of those 1.5m cases are relatively recent and more of those cases still expected to die.

And if we can estimate roughly 3% of the total US population has been infected based on the general upstate-NY anti-body testing (some places in downtown NY higher, the majority of the country likely lower) that would mean about 10m total covid cases. With 100k deaths that would again put the real fatality rate around 1.0%. We shall see how that guesstimate hold up as testing continues....

I think the initial massive government reaction and lockdown was reasonable in the early days when cases/deaths were rising exponentially and watching what just happened in Italy. But as more data becomes available it appears we reacted as if this was 100x more deadly than the flu (who really knew at that time??) when it now appears more like 10-20x more deadly than the flu. Still plenty bad, but this is a virus that will be with us for years.... so we need a more workable long term plan than just hiding.
Likewise - I feel your posts are great. Even though you are wrong! (just kidding...I don't even know what you're wrong about exactly, it feels like we're just looking for new ideas)

I think our math is all coming to similar conclusions. But the other side of this is that we DID have some response that prevented deaths - it may not have been as effective as it could be, but it certainly slowed things.

And this response still leads us to a 6% confirmed case death rate and somewhere around 1% suspected infection death rate. If we had no response, I think these numbers would be even higher - and the Indiana/New York data confirms this. New York, where the population is super dense, has an 8.5% death rate with probably the most extreme lock down we've had. And Sweden is over 12% with no lockdown, a low population density, and very few cases so far.

In light of this, I think it is possible and reasonable to view the math that we've all agreed to above as actually being optimistic, to be honest. I don't see it getting any better than that, and suspect that with opening it will get worse. Is it doomsday? Probably not, but will it go from 0.6% estimates to 1% estimates or 1% estimates to 1.25% estimates? I don't know, but I suspect it will. It's an educated guess at this point.

But your point of hiding not being a long-term solution is valid too. I'm not sure opening is a solution though either. If I'm in a cabin and a bunch of bears are in my yard, I'm going to hide out for a while until they leave - or until it gets so bad I have no choice but to go out in the yard. I'm going to hide from danger unless I have something that mitigates that danger - in this case maybe a 50 caliber gun.

In the case of this virus, open or not, I'm not going to sit in a restaurant or go anywhere I don't need to until I have a viable weapon to protect me and my immuno-compromised girlfriend from this. Vaccine, hazmat suit, I don't know. I do go to a local Dunkin Donuts for coffee here because I believe they have a very well thought out, simple system that eliminates much of the contact between customers and employees - and I wipe down the cups, etc. Plus I think the surface infection stuff is overblown - I think you're much more likely to get this from being within 30 feet of other people than you are to get it off an Amazon package or a cup of coffee. I see a lot of people wiping things down, leaving amazon packages on their porch for days, and then hanging out in their yard with 10 people - and I think that is where all the data on the surface infection stuff has backfired. People have been focused on the wrong solution, but I guess it gets back to what you feel you are in control of.

Ultimately, I'm going to guess that this re-opening is going to go very, very badly. We're going to see a large spike in the cases, and this will in turn lead to a spike in the death rate because once you are out of resources, ever case after that has nothing. Despite the evidence being right in front of us - like it was when we saw China, Italy, England get this and delayed taking it seriously - we are going to look back and say, "Why did they let us open?!"

But I also think you may be on the step we will ultimately need to take - to reopen and accept a large number of deaths. I just think it may, unfortunately, be premature. My thinking is that we should probably take it slower. If the New York data is correct, they have 25% of their population covered at this point and they need to double or triple that for herd immunity - and that happened WITH the lockdowns. Why open the doors to speeding up the hospital visits - why not sit that out for another 2-3 months and let it grow to a 50% rate? Maybe that will have a dramatic impact on slowing the visits and ultimately the deaths. Maybe 50% would be enough for herd immunity, or at least closer to that point. And if it works in NYC, that strategy would work elsewhere - with time.

It's just that people don't want to adapt and do what we may need to do. We want to pretend it is an easy step and everything will be back to normal. Not saying you think this (BamBam) - just that I think a lot of people do.

And of course, if we actually delivered on plan C - a vaccine, or came up with a plan D that was more viable, that would be great. And time and work will either help us come up with a plan D, or at the very least slow down hospital visits and thus deaths, and help us improve treatment.

We delayed our response for too long with ample warning just like the rest of the world. That 100,000 deaths should be far less than that. Somebody didn't respond adequately... We had the same notice as the rest of the world, if not more.
As this goes on, lockdown or not, if we get out of this with less than 300,000 deaths before 2021, I would think we got lucky.

You are right, we saw it in China and ignored it. We saw it in Italy and who believed it would get this bad. We saw it in England, and denied it would be as bad as they say. We saw a couple cases in America and didn't think it was worth adapting. Then it got bad enough that people took it seriously for a couple weeks. Then the sun came out and people convinced themselves it is over - but NOTHING has changed. We haven't found a better treatment, improved survival rates, slowed infections, found a vaccine, etc. We are barely any further along than we were on March 15. But everyone thinks this just fixed itself somehow.

But it is interesting that we DID have all that time to see it happen elsewhere. Yes the ball was dropped on our response, but why do you think that we had all that extra time? I mean, we're the melting pot. We're a global super power. We have more visits from other countries than any other country I bet. Why did we get hit months later? (I will stop there to avoid too much politics)
 
HIT4ME

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Looks like they did an antibody test in Stockholm, Sweden and I haven't read the actual study but the article said 7.3% of the population of Stockholm has antibodies. The population of Stockholm is roughly 974,000 people so this means about 71,000 people have been infected. They are showing about 10,777 confirmed infections in Stockholm - which coincides with the estimate that they are catching 1 out of every 6-7 infections in the hospital.

Of course I couldn't find a death rate for Stockholm but Sweden looks to be over 12%. This puts the death rate at around 1.8% ((10,777*.12)/71,000).

It is interesting that it keeps popping up, regardless of lockdowm or not, that about 1 put of 6-7 cases end up in the hospital.

In another article I saw a Mayo clinic study showed a bunch of the consumer tests are showing false positives as high as 14% and one even came up positive when they used saline solution instead of blood.
 
Ricky10

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Great posts by all you guys! I don’t really get into crunching the numbers myself, but I do enjoy reading about them...

I do agree that we are reopening without much gained in the long run, and a false sense of security. Whenever I see images of openings like Yellowstone National Park and even a restaurant in my home state, there are virtually zero people wearing masks- even when standing in very close proximity within a crowd. I think the biggest thing we should have learned is that wearing masks in public is very effective at keeping infection rates low.

If we are to trust the numbers in Hong Kong compared to New York City, it is quite remarkable. Especially given their similar total population.

Population of Hong Kong = 7.5 million
they have only had 1,064 cases and only 4 deaths.

Population of New York City = 8.3 million
192,840 cases with 16,232 confirmed COVID deaths, and more likely deaths

It’s reported that the people of Hong Kong started wearing masks voluntarily after seeing the very beginning stages of what was happening in Wuhan. They knew they were vulnerable and took action. It’s part of Asian culture anyway, so it wasn’t all that difficult for them to adopt it with a high degree of compliance. Quite the opposite situation here in the US in general.

In theory, we should be able to reopen without drastic spikes in numbers, but our compliance with masks would have to increase substantially.
 
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My wife and I went to give blood. As it turns out they were permitting 4 people in the bus at a time not including staff. I was at the front of the bus with my wife and two people come in and they have masks but not on... I was really pissed, but held it in. I told the person working that I won't be going to the back of the bus to get my BP and rest of my workup now as those people are not complying with their masks. The kicker? They were both in healthcare as well based on their clothing.

I'm not surprised. This is Floriduh after all.
We then went to Publix, and ver few people had masks on. I knew this would happen at the slightest hint of a limited opening of our state. We have an abundance of morons living here. They're selfish and self-centered.

There will be a second wave and it's going to be ugly. (Give it 3 weeks)...
Back to being reclusive again. I won't be going out again for a while, and it's ordering online for whatever I can.
 
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Ricky10

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My wife and I went to give blood. As it turns out they were permitting 4 people in the bus at a time not including staff. I was at the front of the bus with my wife and two people come in and they have masks but not on... I was really pissed, but held it in. I told the person working that I won't be going to the back of the bus to get my BP and rest of my workup now as those people are not complying with their masks. The kicker? They were both in healthcare as well based on their clothing.

I'm not surprised. This is Floriduh after all.
We then went to Publix, and ver few people had masks on. I knew this would happen at the slightest hint of a limited opening of our state. We have an abundance of morons living here. They're selfish and self-centered.

Mark my words, there will be a second wave and it's going to be ugly.
Back to being reclusive again. I won't be going out again for a while, and it's ordering online for whatever I can.
That’s unfortunate...

I’m in an area of my state where mask compliance runs quite high, it’s actually rare to see someone without a mask when out in public. There are 12 counties out of 16 now allowed to have dine in restaurant services, and retail shops allowed to open. I live in a county (not one of the 12) where cases are the most prevalent, as it is also the most populous and congested. Images of people congregating with no masks were from a waiting line outside a restaurant in one of the 12 counties that have eased up. Our governor received a great deal of pushback, and some lawsuits in what was going to be a slower approach. She seems to have caved..

Meanwhile, we are having mini outbreaks on a daily basis and hitting our highest numbers. I also just read that she is thinking of revoking our 14 day “mandatory” quarantine order for out of state travelers. This will make our tourist season much more likely to be quite significant. In a typical summer, our population doubles, and even triples in certain areas. Things are likely to get really messy at my workplace 😖
 
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BamBam54

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The problem with this outrageous behavior is not the virus or the lockdown... it is a lack of any real consequence. Someone coughs in your face like that, they should get punched in the face. That simple. But because of the snowflake mentality and frivolous lawsuits, these scumbags KNOW there will be no real consequence and continue their bad behaviors. Starting at younger ages every year - think of school behaviors. No more corporal punishment and this is what you end up with. Scumbags throwing buckets of water on police.

I think back to the Marines, and the problem child we had named Talone. Almost 37 years ago and I still remember that kid. Could have been right out of the movie FMJ. And the drill instructor clearly wanted us to take matters into our own hands and deal a little justice/education outside of what he was legally allowed to do himself. But I remember arguing with the guys against it, based on following the letter of the law as he also explained. Thinking back I was wrong, and he was just giving the require CYA statement prior to the needed beatdown. Duh! I was too young and naïve to catch that.

And now those same F***ups are walking the wrong way in the aisles at Walmart, because no one every forced them to conform to the rules. I am thinking a shopping cart demolition derby is coming soon....
 
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The problem with this outrageous behavior is not the virus or the lockdown... it is a lack of any real consequence. Someone coughs in your face like that, they should get punched in the face. That simple. But because of the snowflake mentality and frivolous lawsuits, these scumbags KNOW there will be no real consequence and continue their bad behaviors. Starting at younger ages every year - think of school behaviors. No more corporal punishment and this is what you end up with. Scumbags throwing buckets of water on police.

I think back to the Marines, and the problem child we had named Talone. Almost 37 years ago and I still remember that kid. Could have been right out of the movie FMJ. And the drill instructor clearly wanted us to take matters into our own hands and deal a little justice/education outside of what he was legally allowed to do himself. But I remember arguing with the guys against it, based on following the letter of the law as he also explained. Thinking back I was wrong, and he was just giving the require CYA statement prior to the needed beatdown. Duh! I was too young and naïve to catch that.

And now those same F***ups are walking the wrong way in the aisles at Walmart, because no one every forced them to conform to the rules. I am thinking a shopping cart demolition derby is coming soon....
hey, man...you remember a thing called 'BLANKET PARTY'?

fantastic way to give misfits a attitude adjustment.
 
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Numbers are starting to become available for "excess deaths" above the typical US average nationally and for every state individually. Really gives a better perspective on the real mortality numbers for covid to weigh against the economic cost. Even assuming every single death above the normal running average was covid related (more than the official covid numbers, but probably likely) you will see that other than the 6 hardest hit states the numbers are not really all that bad for the 'greatest pandemic event of our lifetime'.

Look at Florida (who seems to have done every lockdown distancing recommendation half-assed since the covid started!) in the worst 7 weeks from March 15 - May 2nd the state of Florida experienced only 1300 extra deaths TOTAL (up 5%) above the normal expected deaths from all other causes. That is in a state of 21 million!! I am shocked and can't explain it.

In Maine from March 15 - May 9 they are actually DOWN!! Actually LESS deaths during the peak coronavirus weeks compared to any other normal year in those same weeks. Wow.

And for this we are devastating the entire country 0 crashing major industries, small business, ending formal education and putting 38 million people out of work?? Gotta come up with a better plan moving forward, that actually MOVES us forward.

 
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hey, man...you remember a thing called 'BLANKET PARTY'?

fantastic way to give misfits a attitude adjustment.

EXACTLY that. The drill instructors had it with this kid, and gave us a little speech about blanket parties and taking care of our own... but also said that was outside of the UCMJ and we would be prosecuted if caught. I missed the obvious CYA and argued against the blanket party the DI was obviously asking/begging for (looking back). Doh!!
 
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Isn't there any way to deal with hard cases in the military other than a group beat down with pillow cases and soap or D Cell Batteries? I get it. You may have to rely on that person in a life or death situation. How does one get them to respect another life they are the caretaker for one day?

Civilians are worse if you ask me. They / 'we' take our freedoms for granted and have overly expectations of righteousness even though it may infringe on another's safety. A great parallel would be drinking and driving. You are taking the lives of others in your hands as well your own with stupid unnecessary bravado.

This remains my fear in Florida as so many act just like this during normal life events let alone post lockdown...
 
thebigt

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EXACTLY that. The drill instructors had it with this kid, and gave us a little speech about blanket parties and taking care of our own... but also said that was outside of the UCMJ and we would be prosecuted if caught. I missed the obvious CYA and argued against the blanket party the DI was obviously asking/begging for (looking back). Doh!!
life on a ship is very tight quarters, sleeping in trees 3 high with only a partition separating....we had a guy who refused to shower and slept with boondockers on, after about a week of this entire berthing quarters smelt like a pig stye….a attitude adjustment was the only remedy.
 
BamBam54

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Isn't there any way to deal with hard cases in the military other than a group beat down with pillow cases and soap or D Cell Batteries? I get it. You may have to rely on that person in a life or death situation. How does one get them to respect another life they are the caretaker for one day?

Civilians are worse if you ask me. They / 'we' take our freedoms for granted and have overly expectations of righteousness even though it may infringe on another's safety. A great parallel would be drinking and driving. You are taking the lives of others in your hands as well your own with stupid unnecessary bravado.

This remains my fear in Florida as so many act just like this during normal life events let alone post lockdown...

The regular methods are well established and effective for most. And to REALLY be able to rely on the man next to you in a life or death situation, you have to be 100% marching together, step for step, side by side. No special rules for shitbirds that have a tough time keeping up. The Marine Drill Instructors are the best in the business, and they teach you exactly what you need to do thru practice and repetition. However, there are always some bad apples in every bunch. And the official rules are that the DI's are not allowed to hit you, which does limit the amount of persuasion they can exert once the kids realize this. And sometime more exertion is needed to fully convince. And as a lesson in human study, you would be AMAZED how quickly attitudes are adjusted when a DI slips a quick shot in there to let you know its out there is the realm of a possibilities!

Everyone has the ability to do it (do what is expected, play by the rules) but they sometimes lack the WANT. If nurturing, teaching, scolding, and yelling don't work.... the final straw is a beating to bring a problem case back in line. The Marines are simply a microcosm of the larger world around us, and what works there works anywhere. You just gotta want it bad enough.

Like the levels of deadly force with the military (and police). We use words, then hands, then clubs, then guns. At some point you comply, or die. Its as simple as that to maintain a society of laws and oppose anarchy.
 
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