They didn’t track party affiliation by voter registration. I said that. But that isn’t really important, as I explain. In that ONE county there was ZERO meaningful shift in PERCENT votes for Trump, only a swing from the third party votes to favor Biden, which is responsible for his slight uptick in percent in that county. That and an increase in overall voter turnout consistent with the rest of the state, which kept the same distribution described above, since that makes sense, more people voted, but it’s the same group of people, so the distribution remained very, very similar, just with more total votes.
I compared the county to 2016 and also the increased voter turnout to the statewide increase from 2016 to 2020 as well. Only 1 of 3 counties has ANY red flags, and it’s not the one in WI.
This is dumb for 2/3 counties analyzed, where the overall turnout was totally representative of 2016, just with more votes. For the third county, the one in GA I looked at, that one had some interesting Biden increases to look into.
But it is. The percent vote distribution in 2/3 counties I looked at was the same as in 2016, but with some of the third party shifting to Biden. The ONLY potential “foul play” there would be if they pumped in fake votes at the SAME ratio of Biden/Trump as there was Hillary/Trump in 2016 to keep the ratios the same but the numbers higher. And Biden was Obama’s VP, and now his VP is also black and a woman, so I don’t see him losing the black vote really. Using campaign rallies isn’t the best example here, as most people’s minds were well made up already. They either hate Trump and think he’s a racist, so vote for Biden, or love him and think Biden is a socialist and vote for Trump. Very few people were swayed by late rallies lol. Claiming that Biden reaching 2016 levels only by virtue of fraud because he didn’t have as many rallies is asinine. It literally spits in the face of the data I provided that shows a VERY SIMILAR percent distribution in 2/3 counties analyzed. There is also ZERO possible way to try to prove or disprove that claim.
Let us focus on this county, since it did have a change in percent distribution beyond just some third party switching to Biden and consistent overall total voter turnout.
My man, I CAN check those, but if you’re going to keep digging into the minutia of the counties showing largely “expected” percent distributions relative to the stage they are in and 2016 data, you’re basically asking me to write an entire thesis paper on every county. As I say, 2 of the 3 counties I looked into trigger few if any alarm bells. I can check those 2, which would bring us to 5 total counties in 2 states, and then we can decide which ones warrant a deeper dive. So far I say 1 of the 3 does, one DEFINITELY does not, and one probably doesn’t. Digging way deep into the least interesting one (WI) that is literally within 1% of the criteria I mentioned seems like a waste of time compared to outlier of Cobb so far. Right?
Have they shown any proof or evidence to warrant looking into these claims? If so, by all means, they should investigate it. But if it’s all purely conjecture, any level of precision in numbers means nothing. I hope you understand what I’m saying. I don’t want to waste my time doing analysis like I am just for you to handwave it as unreliable, even when it matches up very well with 2016 in most cases (2 of 3 so far).
Didn’t I say they’re reporting over 80% total, between all registered voters? As I said, the county in Georgia is exponentially more interesting.
Dude, multiple people here are doing actual analysis and gathering objective data and you come here with this drivel... that’s an extra special kind of stupid...
just curious...do you know what turnout was in previous elections, say like going back 10 years?
His “strategy” was literally “I’m not Trump.” That worked for a lot of people. You can argue it shouldn’t have, but that’s what his strategy was. They’re both horrible speakers.
I’ve literally been posting the 2016 turnout in every county I’ve analyzed. You can also directly download 2012 data by county too. What is your question?
But it’s not “common sense.” It’s a purely subjective opinion. One person can say they won’t vote for senile touchy uncle Joe, and no one would. And the other person can say they won’t vote for racist Trump, and no one would. They’re both subjective takes man. You can’t grasp that OR the concept of conservatism of momentum?
You’re making some bad assumptions. You don’t apply a NUMBER of independent votes to Biden, you apply a PERCENT of independent votes, as if you have a 20% increase in voter turnout, the safest assumption is that the new voters retain the same percent split as the rest of the voters, or the existing voters from the last election. So you wouldn’t have the same number of independent voters as 2016, you’d have MORE, in proportion to the new number of democrat and Republican voters.
I’m telling you I talked to a LOT of people who said they’re voting AGAINST Trump, not for Biden. Just like people who voted AGAINST Hillary, not for Trump. I literally heard many people say they hate Trump so much that they would vote for anyone over him. Argue that it’s dumb, but it is a VERY common sentiment. Trump is very polarizing, and his actions in the months leading up to the election, well, people who liked him already liked him, and he alienated some people on the fence, so probably hurt his odds a bit there.
You’re missing that it wasn’t Biden love that for people to vote for Biden, it was Trump hate that got people to vote against Trump by voting for Biden. You could have literally put “not-Trump: candidate to be named later” on the Democrat ticket and many, many people still would have voted for it simply by virtue of if not behind Trump.
“Is trump polarizing enough to get this many new voters to hit pause on the kardashians and get off the couch to vote?”
just looking for abnormalities, i haven't been reading all the posts---today is phenibut and pink floyd/david gilmour day.
All good. I posted 3 counties, and I argue two were pretty damn expected, and one is abnormal to a degree. But people don’t seem to agree with my metrology or analysis even though I maintain it is the correct methodology. Unless you just don’t trust the data, in which case there’s nothing we can analyze lol.
Haha. Maybe the key disconnect here is people not realizing the impact that celebrity opinion has on young people. Given how many young people didn’t regularly vote, or vote at all, this means you could see a surge of them going and voting when urged to by their idols. Add in them being able to vote by mail (and they are legal voters) and you have the perfect storm for a surge of new anti-Trump (not actually pro-Biden) voters. That would explain a LOT without conspiracy, even if it sounds really dumb.
all the more reason to occasionally escape the madness and kick back with some pink floyd/david gilmour and a couple gms of phenibut
Dude, this is a dumb comment, I’m sorry. You think that Hillary got 10,000,000 more votes than Joe? Say what you will about “sleepy Joe,” but “crooked Hillary” was a terrible candidate and many democrats even admit that if they ran ANYONE except her they would have beat Trump. See how subjective this logic is my friend? I 100% believe that more people voted against 2020 “racist” Trump than voted for 2016 “Crooked Hillary.”
No worries. I will do the math by hand tonight and screenshot it to show you exactly what I mean. I am pretty confident my methodology was correct, but if I made a mistake when I check tonight I will also let you know.
