bruno.camilo
Member
So, u guys already lost considerable amount of lean muscle? I am keeping my weight, but i think i lost strength, sad.
Anyone worried if Corona virus keeps spreading the gyms will shut down?
- Thread starter JoePaul39
- Start date
justhere4comm
Banned
I’m gaining muscle and losing fat.
bruno.camilo
Member
But do u have a Home gym? I have a few dumbbells and thats it =( .... i am always moving to apartments so ...
I've just read that this virus is like aids virus so, there wont be a working vaccine
justhere4comm
Banned
Yeah. Sorry my man.
I don’t know about no vaccine.
Dr. Fauci was talking how many fought it off with their immune system. If that can happen they can develop a vaccine. He’s a smart one.
jrock645
Well-known member
I work in foodservice. Its a supply chain issue. Meat processing plants are shutting down or operating at limited capacity due to infected staff. Prices are spiking and availability is very spotty.
Smont
Legend
Red lentil pasta is loaded with protein. And it's damn close to the tase of regular pasta, most wouldn't know the difference if it wasn't red
thebigt
Legend
going to try, pasta is ONE of my weaknesses!!!
Smont
Legend
With the exception of people carrying large amounts of bodybuilder type muscle, it's not hard to maintain a good physique with minimal things. Look no further then inmates with no access to weights and 3 crappy meals a day. I've had friends come out of jail bigger then some guys at the gym I know are on gear
bruno.camilo
Member
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"The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could become endemic like HIV, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday "
"The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could become endemic like HIV, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday "
Ricky10
Well-known member
They are just regurgitating what we have been saying in this very thread for weeks now. Once again, they are a few steps late in the process of gathering and sharing information.Invalid Link Removed
"The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could become endemic like HIV, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday "
Richie Rich
New member
For people in Jersey it's a step in the right directionInvalid Link RemovedInvalid Link Removed
HIT4ME
Well-known member
Ok, somehow I haven't had any updates on this thread in weeks. I am sure you guys missed me.haha. saying something in the hopes that I start getting notifications again.
Unfortunately, it looks like the death rate keeps pushing closer to 6%. It seems like about 3 weeks ago people started getting serious about this and wearing masks and finally keeping a little distance. Now the weather is getting nicer and people are starting to act like everything is back to normal or something.
Unfortunately, it looks like the death rate keeps pushing closer to 6%. It seems like about 3 weeks ago people started getting serious about this and wearing masks and finally keeping a little distance. Now the weather is getting nicer and people are starting to act like everything is back to normal or something.
justhere4comm
Banned
I feel like that guy who sees something coming that others (not in this thread necessarily) can see.
You know that scene in that movie right? Where the next victim is like "he's right behind me isn't he?"... hack / slash / spurt.
There will be a second wave.
It's going to be horrific and on par with The Spanish Flu.
I'll be honest.
It's a fcuking scary thought.
You know that scene in that movie right? Where the next victim is like "he's right behind me isn't he?"... hack / slash / spurt.
There will be a second wave.
It's going to be horrific and on par with The Spanish Flu.
I'll be honest.
It's a fcuking scary thought.
Ricky10
Well-known member
You should know by now that we like to bitch in this thread on a daily basis. Notifications shouldn’t be required..
I think part of the problem is that we are getting more used to the way of things. The ”newness“ and fear factor has lessoned a bit, just because it’s been part of our lives for some time now. That’s not to say that we are any more or less threatened by the virus, but it’s kind of like you let down your guard a bit subconsciously.
I also think that it won’t hit home for some people until it infects themselves, or a close acquaintance (possibly severely). The longer someone goes without it affecting them on a personal level, the less threatening it seems. It’s like you have to keep reminding yourself and others to not let your guard down.
While work really sucks under these conditions, it’s odd how many additional safety measures have become routine..
Ricky10
Well-known member
When you say second wave, are you referring to a resurgence in cases predicted in the fall?
Or what’s going to happen within the next month or two with the loosening of restrictions- which is really just an extension of the first wave that was only diverted due to shutdowns etc...?
People seem to refer to it as a second wave in both scenarios...
justhere4comm
Banned
Loosening restrictions... will lead to a second wave.
The third is in the fall.
The third is in the fall.
Richie Rich
New member
You guys do understand that people with unhealthy compromised immune systems are the ones dying from this right? People in there 70's and up, with diabetes and asthma? Alzheimer's and Dementia?
90% of us are on the sauce, our immune systems are much stronger than the average person.
Vitamin c, zinc and echinacea. Practice good hygiene and we'll be fine.
90% of us are on the sauce, our immune systems are much stronger than the average person.
Vitamin c, zinc and echinacea. Practice good hygiene and we'll be fine.
Smont
Legend
I'm not even slightly worried about me or my kids getting the virus and it being dangerous to us, I'm sure we have probably already had it anyway. But what does worry me is if one of us was to get it and give it to my 67yr old father with some health problems or one of my elderly relatives.
On another note, the masks and gloves are cracking me up lately, especially the ppl driving there cars wearing them. For 90% of ppl there fucking useless because they use them wrong. Putting the mask on and off with the gloves that touched everything they came in contact with. The same gloves that touched everything in the grocery store they open the car door and drive home wearing. Saw a girl with a mask n gloves at Dunkin donuts. Takes the credit card out her purse, puts it back in purse, takes her ice coffee, opens the straw and sticks it in her drink and drives off. Hello. The gloves have touched everything! You would be better off with no gloves and washing your hands every few hours. Morons
maximillia
Member
That's not the death rate, unless you have already found a way to falsify the antibody tests run by the scientists at Stanford, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya and John Ionnaidis. If the death rate was 6%, my country would be done, but it's not done. Not at all. It's not anywhere near 6%. The number of infected is way higher than confirmed cases- the asymptomatic and the mildly symptomatic. That pushes the case mortality rate down. How low? We need more antibody studies for that. They are just now starting to run that in my country, just now. After 50 days of Lockdown, some genius decided that it would be a good idea to figure out the case mortality rate. Phew! Could have been worse! AND all this incompetence has forced me to read up on how we deal with epidemics. That's a bit ridiculous, I mean govt's are supposed to be ****, but at this rate we all will have to be divine polyglots to get anything to work.
Also, I know those studies are preliminary, but it's a start. I am waiting for more studies and results as well.
The majority of fatalities are in the Old and the infirm,and they should be protected, just like the Flu really. This data is borne out globally. A blanket quarantine is ludicrous, after the data was out. In my opinion, once the data had become clear, the continuation of blanket quarantines the world over was purely political. What for? I don't know and I don't care. **** them for doing that. That's all.
All the mask wearing, glove wringing, and especially the extremely unscientific and nonsensical "regulations" for businesses (and Gyms) has really been crawling up my skin, like the Linkin Park song. And by the way, I am super happy the Virus appears to not be as dangerous as we thought it was. I didn't want to die. BUT, you must have noticed this as well. Now that people are "Afraid" for their lives, they will accept anything. Most won't look for any data, they are glued to their doomporn News shows. It's a bit pathetic.
HIT4ME
Well-known member
So, um, you do realize that androgens increase your risk of catching and dying from covid, right? Men in general are more vulnerable to the disease, and there are strong links between androgens and ACE receptor activity, and these links have played out in Covid patients.
Also, this disease kills people through cytokine storms - which are closely linked with glucose management, and 70% of Americans are overweight, 40% are outright obese and this doesn't include people who are normal weight and have other co-morbidities? Yes, the elderly are at the greatest overall risk of dying - not sure in which world that isn't true - but probably a strong 80% or more of the US population has co-morbidities that are linked with poor outcomes for Covid. In other words, the "at risk" group is somewhat of a miscalculation.
Good hygiene is the best defense. It is wise to take vitamin C and zinc. I would add in that there is a strong correlation proposed between Vitamin D insufficiency and having a severe or deadly outcome from Covid.
Also, it's ironic that most people seem to not care about the elderly because they are close to dying anyway - but the fact is that you can look at relative risk of death from Covid - comparing it to your chance of dying from other causes, and in some comparisons the greatest increases are in the 45-55 age group, with significant increases in the 35-45 age group. Is it a major concern? It's not doomsday for a 40 year old, but it's not to be taken as lightly as some people expect.
Not trying to go too far into the fear side of things - but I really believe most people have and continue to under-value the risk here.
I am not sure what reality you are living in - but I hope you are happy there. One thing - it's 6% in the US, not globally. Sorry for being US-centric. As I stated above, the US is kind of primed to do poorly with this, we have a less healthy population than many of the other countries that are seeing this.
Having said that, in regard to the anti-body studies, I am not sure what you would need to "falsify" these studies, which are making unreasonable claims. I mean, getting your test group by advertising a perceived incentive on Facebook is just the beginning of the flaws with that study. And the other studies didn't even attempt to get peer review - they went straight to the newspapers, which makes them news articles and not studies. And of course that doesn't even get into the data that suggests the anti-body tests return a number of false positives that alone would make the conclusions of the Stanford study highly questionable.
Regardless, you're choosing to place a high value on a study of roughly 3500 people who were less than randomly chosen from the population and you're placing that over a data set of over 1 million confirmed cases?
Further, think about the dramatic headlines from the Stanford study - "Covid infections could be 50-80X higher than we realize". Think about this from ANY logical angle. Do you really think that, in the US we have had over 110,000 infections at this point and only 1.5% of those people have shown up in the hospital? Do you REALLY believe that only 1.5-3% of the people who get this virus get sick enough to even go to the hospital and the other 97% is just asymptomatic? If so, what evidence are your really basing it on beyond a study that offered free Covid testing on Facebook to attract participants?
And even if it is 50,000,000 Americans that have been infected - That is just 0.17% death rate (about 84,000 Americans have died). Do you know any medical professionals? Ask them how many flu deaths they've seen in their career. Then ask them how many Covid deaths they've seen in the last 2 months. Then ask them if they think it's reasonable that this is just 70% more deadly than the flu. And if it is just 70% more deadly, how did the US achieve these numbers in just 2-3 months that go beyond the record setting flu season of 2018?
Now, the original reports out of China, if you want to trust any of that, claimed that 80% of the people who get it are not being reported. This, actually, could be reasonable. The CDC suspects a good 60% of flu cases go unreported - so we're not outside of the realm of possibility here. But we aren't saying, "Well, that 0.1% flu death rate isn't real because we didn't count all of the people who have it." Should we just ignore the data we have because we know it is imperfect and start jumping into unscientific studies that make unreasonable claims that don't at all align with reality because it helps us feel like the environment should adapt to us rather than we should adapt to the environment?
The fact of the matter is that 3 weeks ago, when the US death rates were in the 50,000's I was having this same debate with people who believed the US would have less than 100,000 deaths from this over the next year - using similar arguments to what you're using. Back then the confirmed data showed a 5% death rate and now it is at 6%. Our testing is improving, albeit still not enough - and we're getting a higher rate, not a lower one. We are now coming up on 85,000 deaths and the first wave isn't even over.
Countries like Sweden that everyone likes to point out for not having a lock down, have confirmed case death rates over 12%.
The data isn't getting better over time, it's getting worse.
justhere4comm
Banned
Watch Wisconsin. You will see a lot more death because the Governor was over ruled by the Supreme Court there.
It's going to get ugly.
It's going to get ugly.
Smont
Legend
So far, the nuclear plant I work at on and off has been doing random testing, I may have mentioned that before, but there over 120 asymptomatic workers in the past 6 weeks. This is just one small place, I'm sure there's hundreds of thousands if not millions walking around asymptomatic
thebigt
Legend
that is truly scary for those people at higher risk, of which there seems to be plenty.
BamBam54
Well-known member
The two California studies look like junk science, shredded by peer review. But the NY antibody study seems legit. Haven't heard anyone really fault their methods or math in any big way. And that data all points to a real death rate in the 1% - 0.5% range.
The flu was never given a similar random total population study, which would also lower the flu death rate by a similar magnitude. In the end, the covid is probably 10-20 times more lethal than the flu, but that last part is merely a guesstimate at this point.
The flu was never given a similar random total population study, which would also lower the flu death rate by a similar magnitude. In the end, the covid is probably 10-20 times more lethal than the flu, but that last part is merely a guesstimate at this point.
Jrizzy50.
New member
Numbers are inflated
HIT4ME
Well-known member
I can agree there are millions of people walking around asymptomatic. But there's a big difference between 1, 2 or 3 million infected, asymptomatic people walking around and 49 million asymptomatic people walking around. I mean, not everyone who gets the flu goes to the hospital and gets counted either - probably 60% of the people aren't being counted by most estimates. So, to compare to flu numbers, if 1.4M confirmed cases in the US is 40% and the other 60% aren't even being confirmed, either because they are asymptomatic or they just fight through and it wasn't bad enough to get tested - that would suggest 2.1 million people aren't being counted, just using the flu's model. And I get that it may be higher than that, this is a more infectious disease.
I'm just pointing out that people want to grasp at straws so much that they will accept ludicrous numbers - that we have this disease that has a confirmed death-toll rivaling the worst year of the flu with only 1/16th the number of confirmed cases, and rather than accept this is likely a very dangerous thing, they want to act like they are the only people who understand denominators and make suggestions that somehow we are missing 98% or more of the cases?
I can see if you want to split hairs over semantics. OK, 6% is the "confirmed case death rate" and the "infected death rate" is going to be something lower than that. But the "confirmed case death rate" for the flu is just 0.1% and the "infected death rate" is roughly 40% of that. To say this isn't dangerous and that the numbers are getting better is just not accurate. Even the HIGHLY questionable anti-body studies with their unreasonable 50X higher estimates make the confirmed rates higher than the confirmed rates of the flu - and you can qualitatively take a look at what is going on at any hospital right now and determine that is highly optimistic to even be comparing this to the flu.
If the "infected death rate" of Covid is just 0.6% and you infect half of the US population with it (not even enough for herd immunity and well beyond what even the wildly optimistic antibody tests are suggesting) - we lose over 950,000 people in the US. Anyway you cut it, the evidence points to the fact that this is at the minimum, 10X as deadly as something like the flu.
Mind if I ask roughly how many people work at your facility?
thebigt
Legend
I think the real threat is how much more contagious covid19 seems to be than flu?
justhere4comm
Banned
The numbers are under-reported of deaths.
The US Deaths is probably more into 100k.
And, this is odd... talk about under reporting.
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The US Deaths is probably more into 100k.
And, this is odd... talk about under reporting.
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HIT4ME
Well-known member
This is a reasonable approach. Even the thought that 80% of the people aren't being counted isn't unreasonable - since the flu itself is estimated to have 60% uncounted. That means that we are only confirming 1/5th of the cases - and we are looking at about 7M infected people in the US so far - which makes the "infected death rate" just 1.2%.
But doing the math, if we need 40-95% of the population to catch this in order to achieve herd immunity, we're looking at 1.5-3.7M deaths before we reach herd immunity. Maybe it's 0.6% like suggested above and the deaths will be half that range - 750,000 - 1.85M. And that's if we accept all but the most crazy of denominators (claiming the infection rate is 50X higher than we are counting or more).
If we accept those insane denominators - 50X the number of infections means 70,000,000 people have been infected, only 1.4M have shown up in the hospital, and 85,000 have died (in the US) - we have an overall death rate of 0.12% (which makes this about 3X as deadly as the flu maybe) and we will lose about 392,000 people in order to reach herd immunity. In the US, not the world.
Anyway you cut it, this is 4X worse than Vietnam and on par with the American casualties in WWI, a little behind WWII - and this requires significant optimism to believe. If you go with the more reasonable numbers like what you are suggesting BamBam, it is on pace to kill more Americans than war has. Not any war, all wars.
justhere4comm
Banned
This could turn into another Spanish Flu, which was also under-counted at 675,000 Americans dead.
We have far more of a population and we don't seem to have progressed much otherwise since then, except occupying more people in less space...
Edit: However; working from home back then was not an option.. this may be a saving grace, but I doubt it.
Once places open up a small amount, people over-react and flock to their favorite watering holes / and food parlors... lol.
Death Diners.
We have far more of a population and we don't seem to have progressed much otherwise since then, except occupying more people in less space...
Edit: However; working from home back then was not an option.. this may be a saving grace, but I doubt it.
Once places open up a small amount, people over-react and flock to their favorite watering holes / and food parlors... lol.
Death Diners.
HIT4ME
Well-known member
I live on Cape Cod. We had an ice cream shop open over the past week - they tried to put a procedure in place to make social distancing work. But then people would drive by and see that they were open and just stop in and not follow the procedures, and it all ended up with the customers berating teenage girls - so the owner decided that he just wasn't going to open yet and closed it up after the first day.
We have other restaurants that have crowds and crowds and are going to end up making a lot of people sick as they create large gatherings of people in very small waiting areas.
To your point about working from home, I think back to prior pandemics and imagine it would have been much worse actually. Before telephones and TV even, how long did it take to disseminate information? It's a double edged sword I guess. We have the technology to spread a virus from China to the US in a matter of days with air travel, but we also have the technology to distribute daily infection stats to the masses within minutes.
I'm sure in 1918 there were people walking around thinking this wasn't real, and even some who had no clue what was coming at them because communication was so much different. And prior to that it was probably even worse. But even with all this data, my doctor friends have to deal with people showing up in their clinics actually asking, "Do you think this virus is real?"
thebigt
Legend
for those who have underlying illnesses it is very real, for young healthy people not so much it seems.
what is ironic is that young people have become social justice warriors fighting for causes of those who they consider at risk from society, but have little regard for those who are most at risk by covid19.
BamBam54
Well-known member
Gotta wonder about the intent of a 'lockdown'. If its to "flatten the curve" and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, I am totally on board. But what state hasn't already accomplished this by now? Even NY is dismantling the emergency field hospitals and the Navy ship has sailed away.
Again - the STATED purpose of the lockdown was reached (everywhere?) and those places should ALL start to reopen with the new policies and lessons learned for social distancing, masks, etc. in place.
Keeping the strict lockdowns in effect longer accomplishes what? Virus is still out there, never going away, same fatality rate for those that catch it... and with no vaccine in hand everyone is still going to catch it, eventually. Now, next month, next year, whenever. We can slow the cycle, but we can't stop the cycle. So a lockdown to the extent needed just to flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being overrun makes sense.
But to keep it going after that screams ulterior motive. When the goalposts keep getting moved. We will never be able to test everyone everyday before going to work. To even suggest that is stupid (media guys at the white house briefings). Can't say to lockdown until a 'cure' arrives when that might be never (like the mayor of L.A. just did).
Given what we know now, and the economic limits of action/inaction--- seems the best thing is to begin to reopen and monitor the inevitable increase in those who become critically ill. Everything up to the point of reaching hospital max capacity is actually a good thing IF the only sure way out of this is eventual herd immunity.
And as the 5 min antibody tests roll out more and more, those who have been thru the virus and survived get some kind of card/certification to prove they are clear. We are going to find ourselves in maybe three camps -- one total lockdown for the seniors in nursing care, one living with social distancing and masks, and one of people with antibodies and now clear and safe (no masks even needed, like Rand Paul). With more and more people moving from one pool into the other as we stumble through this to the best of our ability.
Is there any other alternative????
Again - the STATED purpose of the lockdown was reached (everywhere?) and those places should ALL start to reopen with the new policies and lessons learned for social distancing, masks, etc. in place.
Keeping the strict lockdowns in effect longer accomplishes what? Virus is still out there, never going away, same fatality rate for those that catch it... and with no vaccine in hand everyone is still going to catch it, eventually. Now, next month, next year, whenever. We can slow the cycle, but we can't stop the cycle. So a lockdown to the extent needed just to flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being overrun makes sense.
But to keep it going after that screams ulterior motive. When the goalposts keep getting moved. We will never be able to test everyone everyday before going to work. To even suggest that is stupid (media guys at the white house briefings). Can't say to lockdown until a 'cure' arrives when that might be never (like the mayor of L.A. just did).
Given what we know now, and the economic limits of action/inaction--- seems the best thing is to begin to reopen and monitor the inevitable increase in those who become critically ill. Everything up to the point of reaching hospital max capacity is actually a good thing IF the only sure way out of this is eventual herd immunity.
And as the 5 min antibody tests roll out more and more, those who have been thru the virus and survived get some kind of card/certification to prove they are clear. We are going to find ourselves in maybe three camps -- one total lockdown for the seniors in nursing care, one living with social distancing and masks, and one of people with antibodies and now clear and safe (no masks even needed, like Rand Paul). With more and more people moving from one pool into the other as we stumble through this to the best of our ability.
Is there any other alternative????
justhere4comm
Banned
I guess we'll find out how many young people have underlying issues that make them more suspeptible to Covid 19. There have been a few notable young deaths from I believe 2 years old to 18 yo. that died from complications of Covid-19.
Home schooling has dissuaded this from being prevalent, and I hope I'm wrong, but I have a bad feeling it won't be but a mutation or two away from the 8 known strains. (?).
They may feel it more in the third wave coming in the Fall in the flu season.
Home schooling has dissuaded this from being prevalent, and I hope I'm wrong, but I have a bad feeling it won't be but a mutation or two away from the 8 known strains. (?).
They may feel it more in the third wave coming in the Fall in the flu season.
GreenMachineX
Well-known member
Very interesting observation...
justhere4comm
Banned
Unlike other successful countries that enacted Test and Trace right away (South Korea) we lagged far too long behind, and now don't have a cohesive national plan in place to do that. We are going to regret just locking down, and then soft-opening.
That is why I stated we will have a second wave soon after, then a third wave.
It is't about politics, it's about the failure to act on solid warnings. Several dozen.
The CDC has plans but were shelved... why?
Contact Tracing is a b*tch, and more accurate testing.
Here's a what's for: The WH test is not very accurate and can give false negatives...
This is a train wreck that's going to turn into an armageddon like bad movie.
That is why I stated we will have a second wave soon after, then a third wave.
It is't about politics, it's about the failure to act on solid warnings. Several dozen.
The CDC has plans but were shelved... why?
Contact Tracing is a b*tch, and more accurate testing.
Here's a what's for: The WH test is not very accurate and can give false negatives...
This is a train wreck that's going to turn into an armageddon like bad movie.
thebigt
Legend
I personally am very much opposed to contact tracing.
justhere4comm
Banned
Why may I ask has you opposed to it?
thebigt
Legend
the best alternative I can think of is
keep nursing homes under strict guidelines
take high risk people out of workforce and put on disability benefits
take high risk children out of school-homeschool
let low risk people return to work and continue to ask for compliance of guidelines...with as many as possible working from home.
thebigt
Legend
it would be private corporations doing the tracing, and we all know how much private corporations like google/apple/Microsoft can be trusted with personal information.
I don't even belong to any other social media other than AM and never use my credit card for online purchases. don't pay bills online and so forth.
justhere4comm
Banned
This may help but then again, it may not apply to you, just others.
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BamBam54
Well-known member
Even the Feds are not secure. Remember when the OMP was hacked and lost everything for 22 million fed employees including security clearances and detailed background checks!
thebigt
Legend
exactly!!!
DrChicken
Member
Not to be disrespectful but...
Does your a.sshole ever get jealous of all the sh1t that comes out your mouth?
“On par with the Spanish flu”
The Spanish flu killed healthy 18-30 yr olds like it was nothing.
This is not. I know a few younger people who have gotten it and guess what “it was a bad cold”
Even a friend with auto immune issues, he’s fine.
You do realize that healthcare is being incentivized to put COVID on death certificates right? The hospitals get a lot of money for that.
Even the nurse protests are staged
I cannot discuss it much but my family member is near the top at a hospital and he was told word for word how these nurse protests are being staged.
The death rate is highly inflated and we all know it.
Why is it that all the red states have a tenth of the death rates of blue states?
Why is it that the goalposts keep getting moved?
We’ve flattened the curve, NY is tearing down emergency shelters and the hospital boat set it’s sails...
At this point the blue team is using this to push their communist agenda and quite frankly the only reason his has been dragged out is because it’s re election year
This is no longer a safety issue
This is purely political
justhere4comm
Banned
justhere4comm
Banned
Yet. Contact tracing saves lives.
Maybe fight windmill cancer on some other fronts. It’s suspiciously inane.
Maybe fight windmill cancer on some other fronts. It’s suspiciously inane.
DrChicken
Member
Like i said I’m not trying to disrespect you and be an ass but we need to see past this fake BS and unite as a country before we’re the next china.
Surely you can see our rights are being stripped one day at a time..
That starts with the stopping of all the fear mongering and exaggerations
BamBam54
Well-known member
But does contract tracing really save total lives lost?? Or does it just slow the rate of disease spreading. Because if in the end this virus can only be "stopped" by reaching herd immunity, then the same number will eventually get it and die. Roughly.
Contract tracing would make the greatest difference if it could stave off the virus until a vaccine is available. But who knows if or when a vaccine will ever arrive? And those countries currently making the most effect of contract tracing have yet to hit the 2nd or 3rd wave. They still have a fall season where viruses typically rage, even in other countries.