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Here’s a pretty good article that includes a lot of scientific info. Since I know people wont click and read the whole thing, I included some excerpts here. I was going to bold parts that I thought were especially important but dont want people just skimming bold sections, so I didnt.
“As a country, we’re unprepared not just logistically but mentally for this next phase,” said Michael T. Osterholm, a University of Minnesota infectious-disease expert. He worries most Americans do not grasp the long, hard months facing them and the likelihood of repeated surges of the virus.”
“For a while, people were told all we need is to get past the peak. Then, they started hearing all we need is testing. Meanwhile, the president keeps telling everyone that things are going to reopen in a matter of weeks,” Osterholm said. “The way you prepare people for a sprint and marathon are very different. As a country, we are utterly unprepared for the marathon ahead.”
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I suggest reading the part headed “Rebounds Inevitable” on your own even if you dont read the whole article.
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From “The Fraught Science of Reopening”
“A recent case study — published by the CDC — examined how a single patron infected nine others at an air-conditioned restaurant in China. The infected person, a 63-year-old retired woman, did not begin running a fever and coughing until after her lunch Jan. 24 at the Guangzhou restaurant. But over the next two weeks, it became apparent the virus had spread to four diners at her table and to five people sitting at adjacent tables roughly three feet away.
Researchers studying the seating arrangements believe an air-conditioning unit propelled tiny viral droplets over distances that are normally safe between the tables.”
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Under the same heading:
“Studies emerging in the past week are also changing scientists’ understanding of how the virus spreads, which will make efforts to reopen society even harder.
A growing body of evidence suggests the virus is most contagious in people before they develop a fever or even feel a tickle in their throat. That suggests silent spreaders are seeding new cases.
When severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) — the cousin to this new coronavirus — emerged in 2002, Asian countries were able to stop it because people became physically ill roughly at the same time they became contagious. That made it far easier to isolate and prevent the spread of disease.
A study published in the journal Nature Medicine last week estimated that people infected with the novel coronavirus are contagious almost two and a half days before symptoms appear — and that peak contagiousness occurs about 17 hours before people start feeling sick. In a sample of patients from China, the study estimated 44 percent of cases spread from person to person before symptoms appeared.”
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This is me talking now:
We know it takes 3-14 days for symptoms to appear after exposure and therefore, based on the above, can be contagious 12 hours to 11.5 days after exposure. This is why it is literally impossible to stop this thing from spreading without these isolation orders in place. I get the economy needs to open back up at some point, but as this article points out - we need to get the case # as LOW as possible prior to doing that. A lot of the places that are reopening (Georgia, Ohio, TN for example) are still seeing their cases increase day after day.
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From “Warnings from Abroad”
“For months, Singapore has served as an exemplar, with its pandemic response praised and emulated around the world. Despite its proximity to China and early cases, Singapore used massive testing and contact tracing to keep its disease curve flat. It even deployed police to trace people’s movement with security camera footage and credit card records.”
HA, you want to talk about having freedoms limited? My god. Fuk that. Oh, and they had 200 cases last month and now have over 1.5k and climbing. This virus needs to find one little pocket and then cases start tripling every week. Fun times.
