Anyone worried if Corona virus keeps spreading the gyms will shut down?

Smont

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I meant exercise?

Ok, you got me haha. Wishful thinking :)

There is some evidence against influenza I believe. But I think there may be some evidence it could increase viral replication. Not really sure, haven't looked in a while. Wouldn't really advise it.
While I don't advocate the use of that, I've been reading about it a lot and it does seem to have many positive effects that are not often talked about. I think it can definitely be used safely, but what scares me is not knowing for sure that it's dosed according to it's label
 
muscleupcrohn

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its obvious that we have lost control when the democrat governors closed down the seaboard states and more or less forcing the country to react over a FLU... that's less deadly than … the FLU

do the math for your self. this is nothing more than a power grab. IMO probably in an effort to keep biden from havin g to debate trump

current worldwide numbers still show a less than 1% mortality rate FFS. wake up.
Does your a$$ ever get jealous of the s**t that comes out of your mouth? It’s much deadlier then the flu. “Do the math” you say? Man, I’d be surprised if you can count higher than the amount of fingers you have.

The reason why the death rates haven’t skyrocketed is BECAUSE of the measures being taken to limit the spread and flatten the curve you dolt. If we let it run rampant, it would overwhelm our capacity, in terms of hospital space, ventilators, medical staff, etc.
 
muscleupcrohn

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flattening the curve is widening it.. there needs to be a herd immunization to kill this **** off \ **** vaccines and waiting on the governors to reopen sh17.. would you believe they will let you go boating here but don't you dare pick up a fishing rod!! don't feed yourself I guess. if we don't stand up, there will be bread lines, mark my words. they are already discussing black outs for shopping here.
“Herd immunization” with no vaccine? So you’re just suggesting we let it kill whoever doesn’t have a good enough natural immune system to fight it off? Because if we let it run rampant, it will easily overwhelm our capacity to treat it; hospital spaces, ventilators, medical staff, etc. You’re an idiot...
 
xR1pp3Rx

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“Herd immunization” with no vaccine? So you’re just suggesting we let it kill whoever doesn’t have a good enough natural immune system to fight it off? Because if we let it run rampant, it will easily overwhelm our capacity to treat it; hospital spaces, ventilators, medical staff, etc. You’re an idiot...
keep drinking the koolaid its fine with me that your falling in line.

some of us are willing to cross it.
 
xR1pp3Rx

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Does your a$$ ever get jealous of the s**t that comes out of your mouth? It’s much deadlier then the flu. “Do the math” you say? Man, I’d be surprised if you can count higher than the amount of fingers you have.

The reason why the death rates haven’t skyrocketed is BECAUSE of the measures being taken to limit the spread and flatten the curve you dolt. If we let it run rampant, it would overwhelm our capacity, in terms of hospital space, ventilators, medical staff, etc.
there is a thing in the US called freedom and liberty... and you sir can go fuk yourself. I suppose you didn't do any math on the subject did you, you poor dumb cunt. the numbers that prove this is not as deadly nor as big of deal they are making out to be.. don't come crying to me when your job dissolves and your economy is beyond repair you fool ~
 
Bagofturdwind

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keep drinking the koolaid its fine with me that your falling in line.

some of us are willing to cross it.
“Keep drinking the koolaid served by top healthcare professionals and epidemiologists who’ve studied this extensively. You people and your damn compassion for the vulnerable. Makes me sick (metaphorically of course bc my intuition tells me I have a superior immune system).”
 

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there is a thing in the US called freedom and liberty... and you sir can go fuk yourself. I suppose you didn't do any math on the subject did you, you poor dumb cunt. the numbers that prove this is not as deadly nor as big of deal they are making out to be.. don't come crying to me when your job dissolves and your economy is beyond repair you fool ~
“Keep drinking the koolaid served by top healthcare professionals and epidemiologists who’ve studied this extensively. You people and your damn compassion for the vulnerable. Makes me sick (metaphorically of course bc my intuition tells me I have a superior immune system).”
All of these so called experts are still pushing ventilators even though they are just causing lung damage. These dumbasses do not have a clue which direction is up. Case in point: Boris Johnson (who is old and looks unhealthy as fuk) was just released from the hospital after a few days of oxygen, and NO FUKING VENTILATOR!
 

JoePaul39

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The reason why the death rates haven’t skyrocketed is BECAUSE of the measures being taken to limit the spread and flatten the curve you dolt. If we let it run rampant, it would overwhelm our capacity, in terms of hospital space, ventilators, medical staff, etc.
Your claim above that closing down the economy reduces the death rate dramatically is a theory/speculation and is disproven by the one country that did not close down their economy, but rather just quarantined the elderly and immune compromised folks and that country is Sweden. This is the approach Trump should have taken. Sweden didn’t close their economy and their death rate per million citizens is 90, Italy closed their economy and their death rate per million is more than 3 times higher at 329. Many other counties can be pointed out to that closed their economies, but have two to three times the death rate per million citizens than Sweden that didn’t close their economy - Spain 374 deaths per million, France 214, Belgium 340. Sweden 90 (Source for these numbers https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/).

How do you explain this fact that is contradictory with your theory?
 
justhere4comm

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All of these so called experts are still pushing ventilators even though they are just causing lung damage. These dumbasses do not have a clue which direction is up. Case in point: Boris Johnson (who is old and looks unhealthy as fuk) was just released from the hospital after a few days of oxygen, and NO FUKING VENTILATOR!
He didn't require one as he was breathing on his own with some oxygen... (read no pneumonia) also he was given a newer therapy. Did you read anything about it or are you just spouting some FOX albeit other right-wing conspiracy garbage? Tell you what? Heaven forbid you get it, or anyone you know, but if my wife does, she will probably require a ventilator because she has asthma and other underlying conditions.

I guess it's safe to say the not-so-healthy looking PM was more healthy than most or got one of the lessor of the three strains out there. We don't know, and neither do you.

Further more, South Korea and China are reporting a second wave. The virus can lie dormant and ractivate, just like the Spanish Flu did with 3 waves. I'll listen to the experts.

Your claim above that closing down the economy reduces the death rate dramatically is a theory/speculation and is disproven by the one country that did not close down their economy, but rather just quarantined the elderly and immune compromised folks and that country is Sweden.

This is the approach Trump should have taken. Sweden didn’t close their economy and their death rate per million citizens is 90, Italy closed their economy and their death rate per million is more than 3 times higher at 329.

Many other counties can be pointed out to that closed their economies, but have two to three times the death rate per million citizens than Sweden that didn’t close their economy - Spain 374 deaths per million, France 214, Belgium 340. Sweden 90 (Source for these numbers https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/).

How do you explain this fact that is contradictory with your theory?
That would make sense here if only the old were dying in this country.
Question: What if we have tests that were made available to everyone, so we'd know who to quarantine?

2m tests are now available in a country of 320m.
Did you think of our homeless issue? How do you quarantine them? What's Sweden's homeless 'issue'?
We are a different culture and you cannot compare us to them.

There are 3 strains at the moment of Covid 19.
Which one is prevalent in Sweden? I don't know and am not sure it matters, but it is worthy of investigation.

How did Sweden fair during the Spanish Flu of 1918?
34,500 people died the first year.

650,000 Americans died. The country didn't shut down then did it?
News agencies and reporters were threatened with imprisonment and fines if they reported on it.

Restart the economy?
Grocery store workers are dying. Transit workers are dying. Doctors and nursing are dying. Postal workers are dying. 2,000 Americans are dying a day from Covid-19. I shudder to think if this economy was started again too soon, and Trump can think he has all the power to do so, and misread (He can't read) the 10th Amendment but it is in fact the States individually that have that power. Not him.
 
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muscleupcrohn

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All of these so called experts are still pushing ventilators even though they are just causing lung damage. These dumbasses do not have a clue which direction is up. Case in point: Boris Johnson (who is old and looks unhealthy as fuk) was just released from the hospital after a few days of oxygen, and NO FUKING VENTILATOR!
So n=1 didn’t need a ventilator, so now no one needs one. Got it...
 
muscleupcrohn

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All of these so called experts are still pushing ventilators even though they are just causing lung damage. These dumbasses do not have a clue which direction is up. Case in point: Boris Johnson (who is old and looks unhealthy as fuk) was just released from the hospital after a few days of oxygen, and NO FUKING VENTILATOR!
So n=1 didn’t need a ventilator, so now no one needs one. Got it...
 
muscleupcrohn

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Your claim above that closing down the economy reduces the death rate dramatically is a theory/speculation and is disproven by the one country that did not close down their economy, but rather just quarantined the elderly and immune compromised folks and that country is Sweden. This is the approach Trump should have taken. Sweden didn’t close their economy and their death rate per million citizens is 90, Italy closed their economy and their death rate per million is more than 3 times higher at 329. Many other counties can be pointed out to that closed their economies, but have two to three times the death rate per million citizens than Sweden that didn’t close their economy - Spain 374 deaths per million, France 214, Belgium 340. Sweden 90 (Source for these numbers https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/).

How do you explain this fact that is contradictory with your theory?
Didn’t Italy close their economy BECAUSE it got out of hand there? A little late by then, no?
 
muscleupcrohn

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keep drinking the koolaid its fine with me that your falling in line.

some of us are willing to cross it.
You don’t even know the difference between “your” and “you’re,” yet you think you’re an expert on infectious diseases?

If I jumped from your ego to your IQ I’d die from the fall...
 

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He didn't require one as he was breathing on his own with some oxygen... (read no pneumonia) also he was given a newer therapy. Did you read anything about it or are you just spouting some FOX albeit other right-wing conspiracy garbage? Tell you what? Heaven forbid you get it, or anyone you know, but if my wife does, she will probably require a ventilator because she has asthma and other underlying conditions.

I guess it's safe to say the not-so-healthy looking PM was more healthy than most or got one of the lessor of the three strains out there. We don't know, and neither do you.

Further more, South Korea and China are reporting a second wave. The virus can lie dormant and ractivate, just like the Spanish Flu did with 3 waves. I'll listen to the experts.



That would make sense here if only the old were dying in this country.
Question: What if we have tests that were made available to everyone, so we'd know who to quarantine?

2m tests are now available in a country of 320m.
Did you think of our homeless issue? How do you quarantine them? What's Sweden's homeless 'issue'?
We are a different culture and you cannot compare us to them.

There are 3 strains at the moment of Covid 19.
Which one is prevalent in Sweden? I don't know and am not sure it matters, but it is worthy of investigation.

How did Sweden fair during the Spanish Flu of 1918?
34,500 people died the first year.

650,000 Americans died. The country didn't shut down then did it?
News agencies and reporters were threatened with imprisonment and fines if they reported on it.
No I don't watch or read Fox, a lot of the right thinks it is complete garbage these days too. And I'm sure you've done 1,000x more internet research on this, but you should look into ventilators causing lung damage and not being the solution. I'm sorry your wife has an underlying condition, but we can't just hide in our homes for the next 18 months. I wish you and your family the best.
 
justhere4comm

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No I don't watch or read Fox, a lot of the right thinks it is complete garbage these days too. And I'm sure you've done 1,000x more internet research on this, but you should look into ventilators causing lung damage and not being the solution. I'm sorry your wife has an underlying condition, but we can't just hide in our homes for the next 18 months. I wish you and your family the best.
I have, my wife is my main source of information. She realizes all too well the regulation in the ventilator pressure to oxygen ratios need adjustment per individual patient need. Some damage in the lungs has already been done by the virus. Not all of us have the VIP status of a PM to get urgent care. He was lucky it didn't get to pneumonia, or it was a weaker strain many have already had. The longer this lingers the more strains there will be.

Thanks, I worry constantly, and again, the longer this progresses, the more chances of her catching this thing. It's irritating to the least knowing how irresponsible people can be. If this does move towards 18 months which is likely, we'd have to maybe cycle the economy in some way. I have no idea what that would look like but it would be dangerous.

I don't care what they say on television. She doesn't have all the equipment to keep herself safe. Disposable gowns; masks; cleaning supplies. She doesn't have it. Her hospital is straining and putting non-essential people off, while decreasing her hours and increasing her work load. Figure that out.

Let alone natural disasters beyond Covid-19. That would devastate quite a few communities, and healthcare could be inundated with the weight of casualties it cannot bear without more unnecessary death.
 

JoePaul39

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He didn't require one as he was breathing on his own with some oxygen... also he was given a newer therapy. Did you read anything about it or are you just spouting some FOX albeit other right-wing conspiracy garbage? Tell you what? Heaven forbid you get it, or anyone you know, but if my wife does, she will probably require a ventilator because she has asthma and other underlying conditions.

I guess it's safe to say the not-so-healthy looking PM was more healthy than most or got one of the lessor of the three strains out there. We don't know, and neither do you.

Further more, South Korea and China are reporting a second wave. The virus can lie dormant and ractivate, just like the Spanish Flu did with 3 waves. I'll listen to the experts.



That would make sense here if only the old were dying in this country.
Question: What if we have tests that were made available to everyone, so we'd know who to quarantine?

2m tests are now available in a country of 320m.
Did you think of our homeless issue? How do you quarantine them? What's Sweden's homeless 'issue'?
We are a different culture and you cannot compare us to them.

There are 3 strains

H
He didn't require one as he was breathing on his own with some oxygen... also he was given a newer therapy. Did you read anything about it or are you just spouting some FOX albeit other right-wing conspiracy garbage? Tell you what? Heaven forbid you get it, or anyone you know, but if my wife does, she will probably require a ventilator because she has asthma and other underlying conditions.

I guess it's safe to say the not-so-healthy looking PM was more healthy than most or got one of the lessor of the three strains out there. We don't know, and neither do you.

Further more, South Korea and China are reporting a second wave. The virus can lie dormant and ractivate, just like the Spanish Flu did with 3 waves. I'll listen to the experts.



That would make sense here if only the old were dying in this country.
Question: What if we have tests that were made available to everyone, so we'd know who to quarantine?

2m tests are now available in a country of 320m.
Did you think of our homeless issue? How do you quarantine them? What's Sweden's homeless 'issue'?
We are a different culture and you cannot compare us to them.

How did Sweden fair during the Spanish Flu of 1918?
Fine, if you want to disregard Sweden’s example by comparing country with country saying the counties are too different than let’s compare US states with states. There are five states that did not go on lockdown on the economy and how did they fair with their per capita death rate per million? Here are the states with their per capita death rates per million citizens
Arkansa 8.9
Iowa 13
Nebraska 8.8
North Dakota 10.5
South Dakota 6.8

Let’s look at rates for states that did implement a lock down. New York went on lockdown, but their death rate per million citizens is about 48 times higher at 482. How about a less populated state like Connecticut? There deaths per million is 155. Michigan ? 148. You can even look much smaller populated states similar in size to the non lockdown states who went on lockdown and many still have higher death rates per million-
Oklahoma 24, Alabama 19, Rhode Island 59
(Source for theses numbers https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/ )

As far as you using the Spanish Flu to compare numbers that is if I liked to argue the Swine Flu numbers to support a point on coronavirus numbers, which you guys previously disagreed with me doing saying it was an illogical comparison, thus you need to be consistent with your own logic you applied on me in the debate and not now think it fair to make the Spanish Flu somehow analogous to COVID-19 numbers on how many died.
 
justhere4comm

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193058


POPULATION
You can't be serious. Keeping NY open would have had a resultant fewer deaths?
I submit it would have been exponentially higher.

Some governors (GOP) are lying about the deaths associated with Covid-19.
DeSantis in Florida is being sued by The Miami Herold.
Specifically retirement communities.


Come on.
 
HIT4ME

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and tanning salons, hair and nail places, bars, restaurants, what about movie theaters and concerts......the list of businesses that will suffer is very long.
You may be suprised. People have short, short memories and big desires. As soon as this is oven, all the pent up demand for this stuff will explode.

Restaurants being a good example - we have to cook from home, but all the people who have bad habits will fall right back into those patterns.

I agree those businesses that will suffer why the virus is an issue but ultimately at least for those places people can’t easily switch to ‘doing it at home’ (movie theatres may be different if people invest in projectors etc).

in reality there is very little difference between training at home and in a gym when you have a decent home set up.....its actually quicker and easier. No ‘peak’ times etc

just think gyms will come off worse than most
Most people aren't that invested in working out. They feel good about spending a small amount per month to have the option, but most gyms are over-subscribed and that is their model. The only people who won't be paying memberships are a percentage of the most dedicated people who actually used it. Those big gyms have a huge number of paying members who haven't been there in months.

Now is a perfect time to learn to cook I suppose. I know not having enough time to cook, and to learn to cook, is why a lot of people claim they never learned to cook. So with more time on their hands, that's one less excuse, and since restaurants aren't open for dine-in, and a lot are closed period, people still want to eat things besides microwave meals.

The real question is how many people will keep some of these "good habits" once things return to "normal." People who start exercising and cooking now, when they have to go back to work and don't have as much "free time," will they keep exercising and cooking? Hopefully at least a little bit, if not the full amount that they do in quarantine when time ins't a factor. Silver lining maybe?
I bet most of them fall right back into their bad habits. But, I personally am taking this time to focus on getting some additional rest and build some habits that I have never been able to build - like getting on a treadmill every day. It's easy to use time as an excuse...until now.

Well, I worked with my COVIDs yesterday after being off for 2 days.

By the end of my shift, we were down from our 6 vented patients to 4. We are finally getting these people off! One of which was the 60 year old man with CHF and diabetes who failed his first extubation. He was actually extubated (again) 3 days ago and isn’t requiring a significant amount of oxygen. This guy was a fighter!

Incidentally, I also discovered that my hospital started administering the Tocilizumab biologic injections to many - or possibly all of my ICU COVIDs.
That's awesome man! Glad people are coming off!

While I don't advocate the use of that, I've been reading about it a lot and it does seem to have many positive effects that are not often talked about. I think it can definitely be used safely, but what scares me is not knowing for sure that it's dosed according to it's label
Almost anything can be used safely - but everyone who dies thinks they are using it safely too. It is a very interesting compound, but if it had a reasonable safety profile, it would be in use by a pharma company. It's just too risky.

Having said that...sure, I would go that direction before I took Clen of GW personally, but we all have to make our own choices.

This really gets me. Who cares what degrees or positions he holds? It makes no difference. He can still be wrong. The established thought is always proven wrong with an innovation. I mean, there was a period where a young Stephen Hawking was talking about black holes radiating and he was told it was a rubbish theory.

How about the lightbulb, which had Edison being ridiculed as "good enough for our Transatlantic friends... but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men."

How about airplanes which were ridiculed by generals as having "No military value" and being called scientific toys.

Oh, and let's not forget - HAND WASHING DOCTORS! Yeah - doctors didn't always wash their hands and RIDICULED the man who suggested it was the cause of puerpal fever. I am sure there were plenty of people with credentials in that list. Good thing people finally stopped listening to all those people, huh?

In contrasts, how many times have you seen a child make an observation that all the adults in a room missed? Are they wrong because they are children? Of course not.

Education, status, position - none of these things have any bearing on the validity of an idea.


keep drinking the koolaid its fine with me that your falling in line.

some of us are willing to cross it.
Just because someone isn't crossing a line, doesn't mean they aren't willing to. It is foolish to cross a line just to prove you can. It isn't the intelligent thing to do in this case. If you are in a cabin and there is a bear outside in your yard, do you go running out into the yard because it is your right to do so, bear be damned!? No, you self preserve.
 
HIT4ME

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there is a thing in the US called freedom and liberty... and you sir can go fuk yourself. I suppose you didn't do any math on the subject did you, you poor dumb cunt. the numbers that prove this is not as deadly nor as big of deal they are making out to be.. don't come crying to me when your job dissolves and your economy is beyond repair you fool ~
Let's do some math together. There are approx. 559,000 confirmed cases of Covid right now, and 22,154 deaths. So, 22,154/559,000 = .0396 = 3.96%.

That is WITH all of this lock down you are complaining about.That is WITH hospitals that are already over capacity.

We can hypothesize that a lot of asymptomatic people are walking around without being counted and that we actually have a lot more cases. We can also hypothesize that a lot of people are being diagnosed as having Covid when they aren't getting tested and are getting diagnosed symptomatically - which would actually reduce the number of case (and increase the death rate even more). But the data we have is the best we have and going in either direction just requires guessing.

But let's take your assumption that there are all these asymptomatic people out there, and let's take the highest number of asymptomatic people that any theory has thrown out there - let's go 80% of the people are asymptomatic. That means that 559,000 people = 20% or 1/5 of the actual infected. That means there are 2,795,000 people infected with this disease right now - while we are all in lockdown. That is just 0.8% of the population of the US.

Now, best case scenario using your hypothesis, we lose 0.8% (22,154 deaths /2,795,000 infected INCLUDING 80% asymptomatic people) of the patients treated for Covid. Yup, less than 1% - BEST case scenario. And it is pretty darned optimistic with no evidence. And THAT STILL REQUIRES THIS LOCK DOWN.

Now, you also have to realize that at some point, the death rate increases as the number of cases increases. If we have 100,000,000 hospital beds and enough doctors to see 1,000,000 patients - EVERY PATIENT AFTER THAT, gets no treatment. Either that or we start diluting the treatment of the entire group until some higher number becomes the point where every patient goes without treatment. Now that 1% isn't looking so good.

Now what happens if, instead of 0.8% of the population it becomes even, say, 2% because we don't do a lock down. That's 6,460,000 infected patients. 0.8% of which will die = 51,680 deaths.

Oh yeah, that's at just 2%. And, oh yeah, that's THIS MONTH. And that doesn't include the increased death rate from lack of resources at those levels.

Further, that's extremely CONSERVATIVE. You keep throwing out the flu, and guess what? I think it's a good analogy in some ways. It seems like, on average, about 8% of the population gets the flu each year. With this lock down we are on pace for almost 10% of the population to be infected with Covid. We know that Covid is much more infectious than the Flu - maybe about 3X but let's say 2X.

So, it's reasonable to guess that 20% of the population could get Covid this year if we didn't do anything. That's almost 65,000,000 people. With a VERY reasonable (not best case scenario) of 2% death rate. That's 1.3M deaths in a year.

So, did you do the math?
 
HIT4ME

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All of these so called experts are still pushing ventilators even though they are just causing lung damage. These dumbasses do not have a clue which direction is up. Case in point: Boris Johnson (who is old and looks unhealthy as fuk) was just released from the hospital after a few days of oxygen, and NO FUKING VENTILATOR!
No body knows how to treat this....it is novel. I think a lot of the doctors using ventilators would welcome a better solution if they had proof it would work. If you are used to using a ventilator when people come in and can't breath - and someone meets that criteria, of course you think it will save them (or hope). It would be scary NOT to give them what you think they need.

There is no proof that ventilators are killing anyone and using one person as anecdotal evidence is not proof. What if that theory is wrong and we don't give people ventilators and they die? It is a really tough call.

Your claim above that closing down the economy reduces the death rate dramatically is a theory/speculation and is disproven by the one country that did not close down their economy, but rather just quarantined the elderly and immune compromised folks and that country is Sweden. This is the approach Trump should have taken. Sweden didn’t close their economy and their death rate per million citizens is 90, Italy closed their economy and their death rate per million is more than 3 times higher at 329. Many other counties can be pointed out to that closed their economies, but have two to three times the death rate per million citizens than Sweden that didn’t close their economy - Spain 374 deaths per million, France 214, Belgium 340. Sweden 90 (Source for these numbers https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/).

How do you explain this fact that is contradictory with your theory?
Your argument basically supports the idea that being able to go to the gym and pick up a burrito or a coffee among a group of people will somehow protect us from Covid? I mean, I could say that shopping is the cure for Covid with those numbers.

But you are ignoring the fact that elderly people don't spread this disease. If they get it, they end up in a hospital and die. Healthy people spread the disease. They get it and are asymptomatic. They walk around us and spread it around with impunity.

Plus, it is tough to argue that you are for freedom and liberty when you are willing to take away the rights of a subgroup of people, as long as it doesn't apply to you.
 
muscleupcrohn

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Fine, if you want to disregard Sweden’s example by comparing country with country saying the counties are too different than let’s compare US states with states. There are five states that did not go on lockdown on the economy and how did they fair with their per capita death rate per million? Here are the states with their per capita death rates per million citizens
Arkansa 8.9
Iowa 13
Nebraska 8.8
North Dakota 10.5
South Dakota 6.8

Let’s look at rates for states that did implement a lock down. New York went on lockdown, but their death rate per million citizens is about 48 times higher at 482. How about a less populated state like Connecticut? There deaths per million is 155. Michigan ? 148. You can even look much smaller populated states similar in size to the non lockdown states who went on lockdown and many still have higher death rates per million-
Oklahoma 24, Alabama 19, Rhode Island 59
(Source for theses numbers https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/ )

As far as you using the Spanish Flu to compare numbers that is if I liked to argue the Swine Flu numbers to support a point on coronavirus numbers, which you guys previously disagreed with me doing saying it was an illogical comparison, thus you need to be consistent with your own logic you applied on me in the debate and not now think it fair to make the Spanish Flu somehow analogous to COVID-19 numbers on how many died.
Dude, are you comparing very rural states to states with huge, very densely populated cities? No s**t it’ll spread more in very densely populated areas that rely heavily on public transit to get around...
 
muscleupcrohn

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Fine, if you want to disregard Sweden’s example by comparing country with country saying the counties are too different than let’s compare US states with states. There are five states that did not go on lockdown on the economy and how did they fair with their per capita death rate per million? Here are the states with their per capita death rates per million citizens
Arkansa 8.9
Iowa 13
Nebraska 8.8
North Dakota 10.5
South Dakota 6.8

Let’s look at rates for states that did implement a lock down. New York went on lockdown, but their death rate per million citizens is about 48 times higher at 482. How about a less populated state like Connecticut? There deaths per million is 155. Michigan ? 148. You can even look much smaller populated states similar in size to the non lockdown states who went on lockdown and many still have higher death rates per million-
Oklahoma 24, Alabama 19, Rhode Island 59
(Source for theses numbers https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/ )

As far as you using the Spanish Flu to compare numbers that is if I liked to argue the Swine Flu numbers to support a point on coronavirus numbers, which you guys previously disagreed with me doing saying it was an illogical comparison, thus you need to be consistent with your own logic you applied on me in the debate and not now think it fair to make the Spanish Flu somehow analogous to COVID-19 numbers on how many died.
Dude, are you comparing very rural states to states with huge, very densely populated cities? No s**t it’ll spread more in very densely populated areas that rely heavily on public transit to get around...
 
muscleupcrohn

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No body knows how to treat this....it is novel. I think a lot of the doctors using ventilators would welcome a better solution if they had proof it would work. If you are used to using a ventilator when people come in and can't breath - and someone meets that criteria, of course you think it will save them (or hope). It would be scary NOT to give them what you think they need.

There is no proof that ventilators are killing anyone and using one person as anecdotal evidence is not proof. What if that theory is wrong and we don't give people ventilators and they die? It is a really tough call.



Your argument basically supports the idea that being able to go to the gym and pick up a burrito or a coffee among a group of people will somehow protect us from Covid? I mean, I could say that shopping is the cure for Covid with those numbers.

But you are ignoring the fact that elderly people don't spread this disease. If they get it, they end up in a hospital and die. Healthy people spread the disease. They get it and are asymptomatic. They walk around us and spread it around with impunity.

Plus, it is tough to argue that you are for freedom and liberty when you are willing to take away the rights of a subgroup of people, as long as it doesn't apply to you.
Lol, good point. He’s all “‘Murcia is the land of FREEDOM. It’s my right to go out and do what I want! But let’s force anyone with underlying conditions/risk factors to stay in. They’re not ME. Freedom only applies to ME.” Ignoring that OBESITY is a risk-factor here, and how many people in the US are obese? Are they all going to stay in too? Everyone with diabetes too? Asthma? Etc. etc. etc.
 
Whisky

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No body knows how to treat this....it is novel. I think a lot of the doctors using ventilators would welcome a better solution if they had proof it would work. If you are used to using a ventilator when people come in and can't breath - and someone meets that criteria, of course you think it will save them (or hope). It would be scary NOT to give them what you think they need.

There is no proof that ventilators are killing anyone and using one person as anecdotal evidence is not proof. What if that theory is wrong and we don't give people ventilators and they die? It is a really tough call.



Your argument basically supports the idea that being able to go to the gym and pick up a burrito or a coffee among a group of people will somehow protect us from Covid? I mean, I could say that shopping is the cure for Covid with those numbers.

But you are ignoring the fact that elderly people don't spread this disease. If they get it, they end up in a hospital and die. Healthy people spread the disease. They get it and are asymptomatic. They walk around us and spread it around with impunity.

Plus, it is tough to argue that you are for freedom and liberty when you are willing to take away the rights of a subgroup of people, as long as it doesn't apply to you.

It’s not a peer reviewed clinical study but it’s interesting......I was happy to buy my machine for the potential without any proof of benefit but it does look like it might help....
 
justhere4comm

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Note: I'm not knocking those other states. I'd love some open terrain with quite a bit of distance between my nearest neighbor. I am no fan of the city, big cities, or even small ones. Glad I moved from Chicago, and visited NY. That place will (to borrow a line from a movie) Swallow you whole! -Jaws.
 
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justhere4comm

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It’s not a peer reviewed clinical study but it’s interesting......I was happy to buy my machine for the potential without any proof of benefit but it does look like it might help....
I can't read that until I update my NORTON Anti Virus... or my PC.
One problem. I'm on a Mac. and I've never had Norton. I don't trust that crap. lol.

But, from the small excerpt I can see... "More than half infected have won the battle against Covid-19"..
So, almost 50 percent lost? Is this a good news article because it looks grim.


193059
193060

It will not let me read the article.
 
Renew1

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I can't read that until I update my NORTON Anti Virus... or my PC.
One problem. I'm on a Mac. and I've never had Norton. I don't trust that crap. lol.

But, from the small excerpt I can see... "More than half infected have won the battle against Covid-19"..
So, almost 50 percent lost? Is this a good news article because it looks grim.


View attachment 193059View attachment 193060
It will not let me read the article.
An extremely large number (percentage) would fall under "no outcome". Which is: still infected, or cured but not proven yet.
 
gnbbc

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I can't read that until I update my NORTON Anti Virus... or my PC.
One problem. I'm on a Mac. and I've never had Norton. I don't trust that crap. lol.

But, from the small excerpt I can see... "More than half infected have won the battle against Covid-19"..
So, almost 50 percent lost? Is this a good news article because it looks grim.


View attachment 193059View attachment 193060
It will not let me read the article.
I was able to read the the article on my phone, copy paste below:

According to health officials, more than half of those infected with COVID-19 have won the battle against the virus

By

Isha Sesay

-

10 Apr, 2020 @ 09:18

0

FOR the first time since the state of alarm was enforced, there were no COVID-19 fatalities in the Balearic Islands yesterday.

In a further sign that the lockdown is working, the Ministry of Health also revealed that the number of ‘cured’ patients has overtaken active coronavirus cases in the region.

According to health officials, more than half of those infected with COVID-19 have recovered from the virus.

Yesterday, 80 patients were given the all-clear from healthcare professionals, bringing the total number of those cured to 696 and now leaving only 663 active cases.

The region also saw one of its ‘best’ days in regards to the number of new infections, with only 36 people testing positive for COVID-19.

Furthermore, for the first time in 21 days, Ibiza and Formentera did not register any new cases.


In addition, the arrival of more than 10,000 rapid response COVID-19 tests from China will help the Government of the Balearic Islands to get a better picture of the ongoing pandemic.

In recent weeks, the World Health Organisation (WHO) insisted that countries carried out as much testing as possible in order to stop the spread of coronavirus.

Announcing the latest figures, Dr Javier Arranz, who leads the Government’s advisory committee on infectious diseases, expressed his optimism about the evolution of the virus in the autonomous region.

However, he warned that the Balearic Islands are in a critical moment, stressing the importance of citizens continuing to adhere to the nationwide lockdown to ensure there is not a resurgence in cases.

Asking the general public not to ‘ignore the rules learned to continue the downward trend in infections’, Arranz cited Singapore as an example.

The Asian country’s relaxation of restrictions appears to have allowed the virus to reappear.

Meanwhile, the Nuestra Señora del Rosario Polyclinic Hospital in Ibiza has trialled ozone therapy to treat COVID-19 patients with success.

As the first medical centre in the country to use this alternative therapy for treatment, the clinic revealed that it had seen improvements in patients after just two or three sessions.

In a press release the clinic said: “Many patients who were about to be intubated and connected to mechanical ventilation have, thanks to ozone therapy, not only avoided it but improved to the point of not requiring oxygen with just a few treatment sessions.”

Using ozone to disinfect and treat conditions, improve the body’s intake and use of oxygen, and activating the immune system, the therapy has already been trialled on coronavirus patients in Italy and China.

At the Santa María della Misericordia University Hospital in Udine, 36 people with pneumonia and respiratory failure were administered with ozone therapy.

Only 3% required intubation, compared to the usual 15%, with Dr. De Monte stating that the infusion of ozone helped to strengthen the patients’ response to the effects of the infection.

There are also four clinical trials underway in China and the provisional results have shown that ozone has been effective in preventing and controlling the virus
 
Whisky

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I can't read that until I update my NORTON Anti Virus... or my PC.
One problem. I'm on a Mac. and I've never had Norton. I don't trust that crap. lol.

But, from the small excerpt I can see... "More than half infected have won the battle against Covid-19"..
So, almost 50 percent lost? Is this a good news article because it looks grim.


View attachment 193059View attachment 193060
It will not let me read the article.
sorry, this was specifically to @HIT4ME in relation to the use of ozone therapy..... seems to have a positive outcome in this small clinical setting (I brought a ozone machine recently, partly for longevity and overall health but partly for covid prevention/treatment). It was shown to be effective against sars previously so has some credibility in this sort of application
 
HIT4ME

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It’s not a peer reviewed clinical study but it’s interesting......I was happy to buy my machine for the potential without any proof of benefit but it does look like it might help....
sorry, this was specifically to @HIT4ME in relation to the use of ozone therapy..... seems to have a positive outcome in this small clinical setting (I brought a ozone machine recently, partly for longevity and overall health but partly for covid prevention/treatment). It was shown to be effective against sars previously so has some credibility in this sort of application
Yeah - I am meaning to dig into this. Honestly, the fact that you are interested in it, I take as a good indicator. I haven't had a lot of time to dig in, fortunately the last 2 days have actually been productive for me work-wise haha.

I may buy a machine now just because you recommend them. Is ozone dangerous? It doesn't cause interference with QT intervals I hope :)
 

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sorry, this was specifically to @HIT4ME in relation to the use of ozone therapy..... seems to have a positive outcome in this small clinical setting (I brought a ozone machine recently, partly for longevity and overall health but partly for covid prevention/treatment). It was shown to be effective against sars previously so has some credibility in this sort of application
How much did the ozone machine cost you? My dad pays a grand a treatment to get his blood pumped through an ozone machine.
 

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View attachment 193058

POPULATION
You can't be serious. Keeping NY open would have had a resultant fewer deaths?
I submit it would have been exponentially higher.

Some governors (GOP) are lying about the deaths associated with Covid-19.
DeSantis in Florida is being sued by The Miami Herold.
Specifically retirement communities.


Come on.
No, I never said keeping New York open would have saved more lives. That’s the straw man argument you used to debate a position I never had. It is easier to debate a position you choose to falsely assign to me. My position is I gave you statistics that show it isn’t proven closing the economy ends up saving tons of extra lives. If that were true the 5 states that didn’t close down the economy should have had a much higher death rate than they did per capita as should Sweden since they didn’t close down their economy.
 

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Dude, are you comparing very rural states to states with huge, very densely populated cities? No s**t it’ll spread more in very densely populated areas that rely heavily on public transit to get around...
You must have not read my entire post because I also pointed out how RURAL states similar to the states such as Nebraska and Arkansas who did not close down their economy in addition to having lower death rates per capita to bigger states ALSO had a lower death rate per capita to OTHER SIMILAR RURAL states like Oklahoma and Alabama that did do lock downs.
 
Whisky

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Yeah - I am meaning to dig into this. Honestly, the fact that you are interested in it, I take as a good indicator. I haven't had a lot of time to dig in, fortunately the last 2 days have actually been productive for me work-wise haha.

I may buy a machine now just because you recommend them. Is ozone dangerous? It doesn't cause interference with QT intervals I hope :)
been used for 50+ years in Europe and has a great safety profile (just don’t swallow it).

can be used either by removing blood, passing the blood through the ozone and re injecting, for wound healing an air pocket is set up round the wound and filled with ozone and finally the easiest way to use it at home is also arguably the most beneficial and that’s rectal insufflation (what I do).....basically stick a tube 6 inches up your ass and pump the ozone into your rectum. It’s in the blood stream in around 5 seconds from there.........

there’s a myriad of health benefits, I was going to get one without the corona thing but when the possibility of application against corona came up I pulled the trigger immediately.
 
Whisky

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How much did the ozone machine cost you? My dad pays a grand a treatment to get his blood pumped through an ozone machine.
I got a kit that included the machine, medical grade oxygen canisters (filled) and all the catheters etc for £710 (bout $1,000 at a guess). That lot will last 9 months but roughly half the cost was the oxygen canisters which in future just need refilling. Machine itself was just under $500
 

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Your argument basically supports the idea that being able to go to the gym and pick up a burrito or a coffee among a group of people will somehow protect us from Covid? I mean, I could say that shopping is the cure for Covid with those numbers.
First you gave me a Straw man argument above as I never said not closing down the economy results in fewer deaths than closing it down and you can only wish I were that stupid. My argument is based on country and state statistical comparisons that they do not support the idea that it is proven that locking down the economy saves many more lives than not locking it down. If that were true the country of Sweden would have a much higher death rate per population capita than it does and so would the five US States that didn’t go into lockdown, however their death rates per capita are not high. Also, it is important to note many of the elderly in these states cooperated voluntarily and self quarantined at home WITHOUT government mandate. Believe it or not many people will do the right thing willingly without the need of a government bureaucratic mandate.
 
justhere4comm

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No they will not do the right thing. Spring break 2020. 1 example.
 
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No they will not do the right thing. Spring break 2020. 1 example.
And Churches that stayed open with hundreds of people shoulder-to-shoulder. And even if these people at Church weren’t “high risk” individuals, they still irrefutably, inherently come in contact with high risk individuals at other times, be it when the high-risk people have to go out to get groceries, go to the doctors, etc. Or they live with them.

And what exactly constitutes high risk? If elderly does, does obese? Asthma? Diabetes? Etc. We’re going to have half the population in “high risk” categories then lol.
 

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Another thing that infuriates me is the so called “model” the White House is relying on to decide if we should further keep the economy closed is a peace of crap! They rely on the model by the IHEA. They first predicted 100,000, to 240,000 Americans would die WITH social distancing taken into account on their estimates. They then revised it down to 81,000 and I believe have now revised it down again to 60415. Again, these models all took into account social distancing would be intact so that can’t be their “excuse” for having to keep revising downward. How can such important decisions be made on if the economy should be reopened when the experts that the models for which the decisions are going to be based on so grossly overestimate the death numbers?
 
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Another thing that infuriates me is the so called “model” the White House is relying on to decide if we should further keep the economy closed is a peace of crap! They rely on the model by the IHEA. They first predicted 100,000, to 240,000 Americans would die WITH social distancing taken into account on their estimates. They then revised it down to 81,000 and I believe have now revised it down again to 60415. Again, these models all took into account social distancing would be intact so that can’t be their “excuse” for having to keep revising downward. How can such important decisions be made on if the economy should be reopened when the experts that the models for which the decisions are going to be based on so grossly overestimate the death numbers?
none of this even matters...AOC says the world will end in 12 years, so whats the big deal?


lol...I wonder how accurate the model is that she is using?
 

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No they will not do the right thing. Spring break 2020. 1 example.
I was speaking specifically about people who are high risk, those with autoimmune disease and the elderly. These people would generally heed advice and not go out if urged. Last time I checked not many your college kids would fall under this category, nor do I recall reading about many of them subsequently dying from COVID (yes I know there are a small amount of not at risk people who have died from the virus, but that is the exception not the general rule).
According to the CDC 90 percent of people hospitalized with COVID have preexisting conditions. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/covid-19-hospitalization?amp=true
 
muscleupcrohn

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I was speaking specifically about people who are high risk, those with autoimmune disease and the elderly. These people would generally heed advice and not go out if urged. Last time I checked not many your college kids would fall under this category, nor do I recall reading about many of them subsequently dying from COVID (yes I know there are a small amount of not at risk people who have died from the virus, but that is the exception not the general rule).
According to the CDC 90 percent of people hospitalized with COVID have preexisting conditions. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/covid-19-hospitalization?amp=true
Again, you only mention people with autoimmune issues and the elderly. What about people with asthma, diabetes, obesity, etc?

According to the CDC:

“Based on what we know now, those at high-risk for severe illness from COVID-19 are:

People of all ages with underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, including:

People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma

People who have serious heart conditions

People who are immunocompromised
Many conditions can cause a person to be immunocompromised, including cancer treatment, smoking, bone marrow or organ transplantation, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, and prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications

People with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 40 or higher)

People with diabetes
People with chronic kidney disease undergoing dialysis

People with liver disease”

~40% of the US population is obese, but “only” ~8% is “severely obese” (BMI >40).”

~15% of the US population is elderly (but admittedly there will be some overlap between severely obese and elderly people).

~8% of the US population has asthma (again, there will be some overlap between obesity and elderly and asthma)

Not to mention I still haven’t accounted for people with chronic lung issues, heart disease, immune issues, cancer patients, etc.

And SMOKING is listed too; how many people smoke?

This isn’t some small portion of the general population that is “higher risk,” it’s a HUGE portion of the population...

 
muscleupcrohn

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I was speaking specifically about people who are high risk, those with autoimmune disease and the elderly. These people would generally heed advice and not go out if urged. Last time I checked not many your college kids would fall under this category, nor do I recall reading about many of them subsequently dying from COVID (yes I know there are a small amount of not at risk people who have died from the virus, but that is the exception not the general rule).
According to the CDC 90 percent of people hospitalized with COVID have preexisting conditions. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/covid-19-hospitalization?amp=true
Again, you only mention people with autoimmune issues and the elderly. What about people with asthma, diabetes, obesity, etc?

According to the CDC:

“Based on what we know now, those at high-risk for severe illness from COVID-19 are:

People of all ages with underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, including:

People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma

People who have serious heart conditions

People who are immunocompromised
Many conditions can cause a person to be immunocompromised, including cancer treatment, smoking, bone marrow or organ transplantation, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, and prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications

People with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 40 or higher)

People with diabetes
People with chronic kidney disease undergoing dialysis

People with liver disease”

~40% of the US population is obese, but “only” ~8% is “severely obese” (BMI >40).”

~15% of the US population is elderly (but admittedly there will be some overlap between severely obese and elderly people).

~8% of the US population has asthma (again, there will be some overlap between obesity and elderly and asthma)

Not to mention I still haven’t accounted for people with chronic lung issues, heart disease, immune issues, cancer patients, etc.

And SMOKING is listed too; how many people smoke?

This isn’t some small portion of the general population that is “higher risk,” it’s a HUGE portion of the population...
 

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Again, you only mention people with autoimmune issues and the elderly. What about people with asthma, diabetes, obesity, etc?

According to the CDC:

“Based on what we know now, those at high-risk for severe illness from COVID-19 are:

People of all ages with underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, including:

People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma

People who have serious heart conditions

People who are immunocompromised
Many conditions can cause a person to be immunocompromised, including cancer treatment, smoking, bone marrow or organ transplantation, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, and prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications

People with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 40 or higher)

People with diabetes
People with chronic kidney disease undergoing dialysis

People with liver disease”

~40% of the US population is obese, but “only” ~8% is “severely obese” (BMI >40).”

~15% of the US population is elderly (but admittedly there will be some overlap between severely obese and elderly people).

~8% of the US population has asthma (again, there will be some overlap between obesity and elderly and asthma)

Not to mention I still haven’t accounted for people with chronic lung issues, heart disease, immune issues, cancer patients, etc.

And SMOKING is listed too; how many people smoke?

This isn’t some small portion of the general population that is “higher risk,” it’s a HUGE portion of the population...
Well since there are so many people at risk when do you propose we should end the lockdown at least in part and begin phase opening parts of the economy and why? Is there a reduction to a specific amount of deaths per day that would justify it, do we wait till zero deaths per day, or just when the slope goes down? What is the answer. Since you know the economy should be shut down right now I suspect you would also know when it should open by using some sort or measuring gage?
 
muscleupcrohn

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Well since there are so many people at risk when do you propose we should end the lockdown at least in part and begin phase opening parts of the economy and why? Is there a reduction to a specific amount of deaths per day that would justify it, do we wait till zero deaths per day, or just when the slope goes down? What is the answer. Since you know the economy should be shut down right now I suspect you would also know when it should open by using some sort or measuring gage?
Neither of us are experts hare, so let’s preface with that first and foremost. Next, I do think it’s good that we limited exposure already, hopefully it bought us time to get enough equipment to not be overwhelmed (things like ventilators, sufficient PPE, etc.). True, we don’t have a vaccine, and it’s a long way off, but at least we now hopefully have more/enough equipment to handle things, or will soon. And we learn more about the virus every day, and how to best treat it, etc. I don’t have the answer, not all the answers of course, but I’m just saying that suggesting we should return entirely to “business as usual” and ONLY tell “high risk” people to do ANY level of distancing is silly. That is all I’m saying.
 
HIT4ME

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First you gave me a Straw man argument above as I never said not closing down the economy results in fewer deaths than closing it down and you can only wish I were that stupid. My argument is based on country and state statistical comparisons that they do not support the idea that it is proven that locking down the economy saves many more lives than not locking it down. If that were true the country of Sweden would have a much higher death rate per population capita than it does and so would the five US States that didn’t go into lockdown, however their death rates per capita are not high. Also, it is important to note many of the elderly in these states cooperated voluntarily and self quarantined at home WITHOUT government mandate. Believe it or not many people will do the right thing willingly without the need of a government bureaucratic mandate.
I am not sure you understand what a straw man argument is.

Second, I was not arguing directly against you. I was pointing out that your logical steps could be used to form many different conclusions - like keeping coffee shops open will protect from Covid, because countries that did not close coffee shops had lower death rates.

Keep in mind, that one of the biggest criticisms of Trump is that he did not do enough, fast enough. Even at the beginning of this very thread we are talking about how stupid this is, and it hasn't really been until the last 2 weeks people have started to take this seriously. Given THAT observation, I think it's pretty simple to explain the observation that countries with lower death rates also happen to be the ones that have not shut down. Why would they? They had a low number of deaths and weren't as effected by this virus.

But let's go with what you just wrote, "I never said not closing down the economy results in fewer deaths than closing it down and you can only wish I were that stupid."

So, you agree that keeping the economy open results in at least equal deaths as shutting it down?

I would think your argument would have been smarter if you WERE trying to say that not shutting it down would save lives. Now I'm really not sure what you think you're going to accomplish.


And Churches that stayed open with hundreds of people shoulder-to-shoulder. And even if these people at Church weren’t “high risk” individuals, they still irrefutably, inherently come in contact with high risk individuals at other times, be it when the high-risk people have to go out to get groceries, go to the doctors, etc. Or they live with them.

And what exactly constitutes high risk? If elderly does, does obese? Asthma? Diabetes? Etc. We’re going to have half the population in “high risk” categories then lol.
I actually agree that the majority of people are doing what they should. It has taken a lot of them a little longer than may have been hoped to get on board, but I see more people staying home and taking this seriously. When I go to the store 80-90% of people are wearing masks. Many people still shop as if nothing has changed and they can just take their time and hang out, but you can't have it all.

And I have the young 25 year old woman across the street from me who has a dozen friends over all day ever day and they come and go and it's a big party for them. Or the guy two streets over having his group of friends over to go out on dirt bikes and ATVs every day. They're idiots for sure.

I think the examples you bring up are publicized so they stand out - but I do think they are the minority (or they wouldn't be so newsworthy). They are still dangerous and wrong, and people need to be educated and brought on board.

And the line of "high risk" is a good point - the "high risk" idea is a fallacy. It's complete myth in the US. It's not even elderly and autoimmune people. Studies in almost every country are showing that the BIGGEST risk factor in this is obesity. 70% of Americans are overweight. SEVENTY PERCENT. 40% are Obese. Any way you cut it, once you add in smoking, auto-immune diseases, age, diabetes, etc. - you're talking 3 out of 4 people in this country at least need to be quarantined.

But I guess that's ok as long as the young people can go hang out at the mall.

Another thing that infuriates me is the so called “model” the White House is relying on to decide if we should further keep the economy closed is a peace of crap! They rely on the model by the IHEA. They first predicted 100,000, to 240,000 Americans would die WITH social distancing taken into account on their estimates. They then revised it down to 81,000 and I believe have now revised it down again to 60415. Again, these models all took into account social distancing would be intact so that can’t be their “excuse” for having to keep revising downward. How can such important decisions be made on if the economy should be reopened when the experts that the models for which the decisions are going to be based on so grossly overestimate the death numbers?
Wait, are you arguing now that you are upset because social distancing reduced the number of deaths?

You do realize that 8% of the population in the US catches the flu every year, right? That's 26 million people. We don't have lock downs for that. We know that this disease is much more contagious than the flu. The R0 of flu I believe is between 1.1-1.3 and the R0 of Covid-19 is between 2-2.5. Just based on that it is twice as infectious but that will compound of course.

But do the math - if we let this run like the flu and it just infected ONLY 2X the people, that's 52M people. At 4% death rate that we are seeing right now - you're looking at over 2 Million deaths from this in a year if we let it run around like the flu.

I'm not sure how you don't think shutting down the economy has save a huge number of lives and the downward projections speak to that.

I was speaking specifically about people who are high risk, those with autoimmune disease and the elderly. These people would generally heed advice and not go out if urged. Last time I checked not many your college kids would fall under this category, nor do I recall reading about many of them subsequently dying from COVID (yes I know there are a small amount of not at risk people who have died from the virus, but that is the exception not the general rule).
According to the CDC 90 percent of people hospitalized with COVID have preexisting conditions. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/covid-19-hospitalization?amp=true
You do realize that being overweight itself is a pre-existing condition, correct?

And you do realize the problem is that those "healthy" kids could be running around infecting a number of other people - young and old alike. The old people are NOT the problem. They die, they don't infect and kill others.
 

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