My $.02. Most people are reading this all wrong. This war isn't for, or about, Israel, oil, nukes, or whatever else you've been told, though those are beneficial side effects. Trump is not crazy, or chaotic; he's extremely calculated. So what is this all about? Let's examine the players:
Russia supported Iran, which supported Assad in Syria, Hezbullah, Hamas, and the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbullah was the Middle East arm of the cartels drug distribution, and financed their terror in part through drug trafficking; Hezbullah has had training centers in South America, including Venezuela, for decades. Iran and their terror proxies work closely with the cartels and benefit hugely from their activity, and cross training.
China considers Iran an integral part of its Belt and Road initiative, both as a source of energy, and 90m strong market, requiring civilian and military goods. Iran is a crossroads connecting Chinese trade with markets further west. Keep in mind Venezuela alone provided 15% of China's oil....before Maduro was removed. China bought 80-90% of Iran's oil until now, comprising 13-23% of China's oil supply.
Iran is a Russian proxy against America, and has been waging war on America for 40 years, utilizing Syria, Hezbullah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Iran has killed around 1m Iranians over that time, as well as hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, Syrians, Lebanese, Israelis, Argentinians, Americans, and numerous other countries; Iran has assassinated at least 150 politicians globally; Iran has shot numerous passenger airliners out of the sky; Iran has been the number one sponsor of terror in the world the whole time (literally: Hezbullah hosted and trained Carlos the Jackal and Imad Mughnieh, the two most notorious terrorists in history). Iranian missiles could reach Europe, and they were swiftly improving to reach farther. Iran wanted nukes as a deterrent against invasion, and possibly as some jihadi fever-dream tool to nuke Israel and the US and usher in some Islamist utopia, and was working hard to reach those goals.
The cartels are under the gun, with Tren de Aragua being designated terror organizations now, and the US response to them being lethal military force. ICE is busy removing Tren members from the US now. Last week Mexico took out a couple top cartel leaders.
So what is Trump doing? He removed Russia and China's primary assets in the Western hemisphere, Venezuela and Cuba (it hasn't fallen yet, but their oil from Venezuela and Mexico has been cut off by Trump, and their lights are out, they have no power, collapse is imminent). Syria's Assad fell and fled, and Syria is no longer allied with Russia. Israel decimated Hamas, Hezbullah, and the Houthis. Now the US and Israel have removed Khameini.
Trump is taking away Russia and China's toys. He's destroying their levers of power against the US, and means of profit. He's taking away their backup. He's taking away their strategic reserves (of oil, money, power). Between Venezuela and Iran he's removed appriximately 30% of China's oil supply. He's lessening their reach. He's punishing their intransigence, whether Russia's in Ukraine, or China's in trade. ** me? ** YOU.
Trump tried to deal. He offered Khameini several off-ramps, but he did not accept. Does this benefit Israel? Yes, and may there be peace between Iran and Israel forever. Is there profit in oil? Yes. Did it remove Iran's nuclear option? Yes. Does it stop the rape and murder of innocent Iranians, and open the door for them to chart their own free destiny? Yes, or at least gives them a fighting chance. Those are awesome side effects, but they are not the primary reason. Russia and China are.
And guess what? A primary objective that attains so many positive and beneficial secondary objectives is a powerful objective indeed.
I glossed over the cartel's connection to Iran and Hezbullah, above, but it's well worth a longer look.
When I was in the IDF I had 2 tours in Lebanon, where Israel maintained a buffer zone to keep Hezbullah from attacking Israel. In 1995, Hezbullah was receiving $300-400M per year from Iran and Russia, and there were Russians and Iranians in Lebanon (in the Bekaa Valley farther north) training them. Since 1995, Hezbullah was built up by Russia and Iran into the most dangerous terror organization in the world (moreso than al Qaeda or ISIS); they became a hybrid terror/paramilitary organization, and had the backing of Iran (including intelligence, monetary, or anything else they needed). They honed their skills fighting us (the IDF) in Lebanon, and later exported the skills they gained into Iraq to kill and maim thousands of US troops. But there's more to their relatively meteoric rise as a global threat.
In 2008, the DEA launched a campaign called Project Cassandra: they had compiled evidence that Hezbullah had transitioned from 'merely' a Middle-East/Israel focused terror group, into a massive international crime syndicate. Over 8 years, 30 US and foreign agencies used wiretaps, undercover operations, and informants to trace their activity. They followed drug shipments from Latin America to West Africa and on to Europe and the Middle East, and others through Venezuela and Mexico to the United States.
Is this starting to ring some bells? It should. Project Cassandra ended up tracing all of this back to the source: the innermost circles of Iran and Hezbullah. So what did they do about it?
They requested for arrests to be made, subpoenas issued, bank accounts closed and cash frozen, but the Obama administration refused. Requests to file criminal charges against Hezbullah's envoy to Iran, Quds force members, and Lebanese banks were denied.
“This was a policy decision, it was a systematic decision,” said David Asher, who helped establish and oversee Project Cassandra as a Defense Department illicit finance analyst. “They serially ripped apart this entire effort that was very well supported and resourced, and it was done from the top down.”
The result? Tons of cocaine entered the US, harming Americans, and hundreds of millions, or billions, of dollars went to Hezbullah and Iran, who then went on to murder and oppress at a more furious rate. Why would Obama allow this shadowy network run by terrorists to flourish?
Because he wanted Iran to sign the JCPOA, the Iran nuke deal which allegedly limited their enrichment (on the honor system, mostly) in return for sanction relief (and of course 'sanction relief' in the form of illicit drug money, and 'we'll ignore your little paramilitary if you just sign this'). Obama sent $1.7B in cash to Iran, lessened sanctions, and stood by while the world's worst terror organization and worst dictator grew richer, more capable, and more powerful.
So, you can trace current events directly to Obama. Trump said 'if I had been president, Oct 7 wouldn't have happened'. It's correct. Obama and Biden allowed Iran, Hezbullah, and Hamas to enrich themselves; Trump increased sanctions and brought Iran to its knees during his first term, and obliterated them in his second. (As an aside, Hamas members told Israeli hostages they were scared of Trump). Trump knows Hezbullah/Iran has bases in Venezuela, and works closely with the cartels, right here in our backyard. Trump pushed Mexican president Sheinbaum to take out the head of one of the strongest cartels in Mexico recently. Trump is dismantling what Obama allowed, and keeping the world safer in the process. In the end of the day, 1200 Israelis were slaughtered in a single day, and Iran continued building up nukes, killing in Yemen, attacking Israel, and attempting to assassinate world leaders, because Obama was a bitch.
Vastly more detail in this amazing article:
An ambitious U.S. task force targeting Hezbollah's billion-dollar criminal enterprise ran headlong into the White House's desire for a nuclear deal with Iran
www.politico.com
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