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Does Anyone Understand The Stock Market?

You mean understand why an overvalued market continues to have poor kpis and go up? Yes that's why people are pulling money out and sticking in other places
 
I man more along the lines of why we're only expecting a 5% growth over the next 5 years at best, and what may happen with the whole Brexit thing because of Britons bank interference.
 
AllTheGainz said:
I man more along the lines of why we're only expecting a 5% growth over the next 5 years at best, and what may happen with the whole Brexit thing because of Britons bank interference.
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We have had less than 3% growth for the entire time Obama has been in office. Real actual employment is down, regardless of what they claim the unemployment number to be. Jobs have been moved overseas or done away with because of the employer mandate in obamacare. The stock market will correct itself again at some point. The bad part is the hit will be worse than last time because it's gotten so much higher than when the last crash happened.
 
TexasLifter89 said:
You mean understand why an overvalued market continues to have poor kpis and go up? Yes that's why people are pulling money out and sticking in other places
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Quantitative Easing. Pumping fake "digitized" money into the stock market. Notice every time the fed hinted that the golden teet would get clamped off, the market went down. When the feds said, nah, we were just kidding, it goes back up. The entire market is inflated with fake money that never existed.
 
ManimalPatB said:
Buy LOW

Sell HIGH
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Truth.

I just don't understand how it hasn't gone to **** with the whole Brexit thing, I know the center also bank over there got involved but sooner or later we're screwed right? So why are they saying 5% growth in the next 5 years if that's looming on the horizon
 
AllTheGainz said:
Truth.

I just don't understand how it hasn't gone to **** with the whole Brexit thing, I know the center also bank over there got involved but sooner or later we're screwed right? So why are they saying 5% growth in the next 5 years if that's looming on the horizon
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They're saying 5% growth over 5 years because our GDP has grown an average less than 2%. Reality trumps platitudes about how great the Obama recovery has been, which the recovery never existed. They've "predicted" much higher GDP growth for years, and it never happened. Predictions don't mean much.
 
Well the 5% isn't from the gov, it's from a bunch of stock advisors I've talked too. None of whom want to do anything with the stock market atm so just trying to figure out why
 
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Keep in mind stock advisors know they are on borrowed time and are trying to make as much money as possible before the next market implosion.
 
youngandfree said:
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Keep in mind stock advisors know they are on borrowed time and are trying to make as much money as possible before the next market implosion.
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Exactly this is why I need to figure out if I need to pull out now or wait a little bit longer. My pull out game is strong but this could really ruin it.
 
AllTheGainz said:
Exactly this is why I need to figure out if I need to pull out now or wait a little bit longer. My pull out game is strong but this could really ruin it.
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That is the million dollar question. They will argue those that lost big last time made it up plus some. But if you don't examine why the market is up, in spite of what the economic reality is, you're at the mercy of the advisors.

For historical evidence of what happens when a government tries to print it's way out of a decline, read up on Iceland and Zimbabwe.
 
youngandfree said:
That is the million dollar question. They will argue those that lost big last time made it up plus some. But if you don't examine why the market is up, in spite of what the economic reality is, you're at the mercy of the advisors.

For historical evidence of what happens when a government tries to print it's way out of a decline, read up on Iceland and Zimbabwe.
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Oh no I'm totally aware what happens if the gov tried to print it's way out of this, question is are they trying to this time or are they going to let the market handle itself. 08 was horrible and I'm fearing it could happen again with a new president coming into office. I have a lot more to lose this time then I did last time
 
AllTheGainz said:
Oh no I'm totally aware what happens if the gov tried to print it's way out of this, question is are they trying to this time or are they going to let the market handle itself. 08 was horrible and I'm fearing it could happen again with a new president coming into office. I have a lot more to lose this time then I did last time
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You missed the boat. They started spending $40 BILLION per month in 2012 to buy mortgage backed securities.
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That is why the market has been up to record highs. It's not because of Obama's "summer of recovery". Go look at the actual revised GDP numbers since 2009. I saw an article that says Obama will be the only president in history to never have a year of GDP growth over 3%. In the entire history of the US.
 
youngandfree said:
You missed the boat. They started spending $40 BILLION per month in 2012 to buy mortgage backed securities.
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Not nexessarly, I've made quite a lot over the past few years, just trying to figure out when the stock market will decide it's had enough of the government help and bottoms out. That's when I want to get out. Before that.

Honestly doesn't matter what Obama did and didn't do at this point, the market is getting too good to be true, so it's going to crash. It did way back in the old days and it did in 08, it will again for the same reasons. It's over inflated at this point. Now we as consumers need to figure out when it's going to bottom out.
 
question is are they trying to this time or are they going to let the market handle itself. 08


This is what I meant you missed the boat on. It's not "will they do it this time". They've been doing it since 2012. That's the reason the market is where it is today.

I didn't mean you missed an opportunity to make money. You're just in the same boat as everyone else. Except for Congress, since they know when the SHTF and are legally allowed to do insider trading.
 
youngandfree said:
question is are they trying to this time or are they going to let the market handle itself. 08


This is what I meant you missed the boat on. It's not "will they do it this time". They've been doing it since 2012. That's the reason the market is where it is today.

I didn't mean you missed an opportunity to make money. You're just in the same boat as everyone else. Except for Congress, since they know when the SHTF and are legally allowed to do insider trading.
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Oh well then yeah I missed that boat, but the boat I'm shooting for is the one that leaves before the market bottoms out because the gov has been over inflating it for so long. I don't mind it being over inflated, untill it bottoms out, then I mind. A lot.

But the whole congress knowing and **** is stupid. They know when it's going to crash and they know when the plug is getting pulled based off stuff they pass behind closed doors.

Really screwed over the people they are supposed to be helping.
 
Gold will go through the roof again. Don't buy ETF's or paper gold. Buy real gold or silver. It's low right now. Metals will start going up before the bottom falls out.

It's all going to come off the rails at some point, so I don't worry too much. I don't have much in the market anyway, not like I should have working the same job for 17 years. Back then the future didn't look so bleak like it does now. I determined to just live my life and go on.
 
"Really screwed over the people they are supposed to be helping."

That's your other mistake, thinking Congress is there to help the citizens. :)
 
Gold is iffy to me, I feel like some day people are going to wake up and ask the selves why they are paying so much for it, same with diamonds. Most of my money is going to college, but I have a lot in mutual funds and stocks I've invested in personally.

At some point something has to give, you can't have a true capitalistic market if you have government interference. But no gov interference leads to monopolies etc. you can't have total control either because then you have socialism and that never works out.
 
youngandfree said:
"Really screwed over the people they are supposed to be helping."

That's your other mistake, thinking Congress is there to help the citizens. :)
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Well they are ;) have they for the past 100 years? nope. I don't believe they are helping us, they are so worried about controlling substances like prohormones etc but they can't even control the gov budget.

They are supposed to help us, but I honestly can't think of a time they ever really "helped". Everything they do comes with a huge cost that is passed down to us, the taxpayers.
 
AllTheGainz said:
Gold is iffy to me, I feel like some day people are going to wake up and ask the selves why they are paying so much for it, same with diamonds. Most of my money is going to college, but I have a lot in mutual funds and stocks I've invested in personally.

At some point something has to give, you can't have a true capitalistic market if you have government interference. But no gov interference leads to monopolies etc. you can't have total control either because then you have socialism and that never works out.
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No that isn't going to happen. Historically and into the future gold will always be the benchmark safe haven.

Your US stock market is an ever expanding bubble due to the chase for yield, company buy backs artificially keeping prices inflated and the ever continuing easy money. Soo much for the feds interest rate normalisation goals. There will likely be neg interest rates if the data continues to print as it is.
 
NoAddedHmones said:
No that isn't going to happen. Historically and into the future gold will always be the benchmark safe haven.

Your US stock market is an ever expanding bubble due to the chase for yield, company buy backs artificially keeping prices inflated and the ever continuing easy money. Soo much for the feds interest rate normalisation goals. There will likely be neg interest rates if the data continues to print as it is.
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Understandable for the first part. I think the 5% in 5 years means we're SOL here. Only takes 2% in the other direction to be headed downwards and that's where I see us going. But I'm no stock broker or market analyst. I'm just your typical college student.
 
NoAddedHmones said:
No that isn't going to happen. Historically and into the future gold will always be the benchmark safe haven.

Your US stock market is an ever expanding bubble due to the chase for yield, company buy backs artificially keeping prices inflated and the ever continuing easy money. Soo much for the feds interest rate normalisation goals. There will likely be neg interest rates if the data continues to print as it is.
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Until they confiscate gold again. You're right about negative interest rates though. That's the next thing when the market crashes. I believe they are already doing it in Greece. They took a certain percentage out of every bank account, 10% or whatever number they decided.

Talking Heads and financial "theorists" have been kicking around the idea of doing that here, and have come to the conclusion its a viable option . Look up the term "bail in".
 
Trust me, the feds controlling prohormones is one of the lowest items on their priority list of things they want to control.
 
youngandfree said:
Until they confiscate gold again. You're right about negative interest rates though. That's the next thing when the market crashes. I believe they are already doing it in Greece. They took a certain percentage out of every bank account, 10% or whatever number they decided.

Talking Heads and financial "theorists" have been kicking around the idea of doing that here, and have come to the conclusion its a viable option . Look up the term "bail in".
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That point re taking a certain percentage of everyone's money, its quasi already happened in the US during the 2008 financial crisis when tax payer dollars were used to save the banksters and prevent multiple financial institutions going under. How many people ended up going to jail in the US for that whole ordeal?
 
NoAddedHmones said:
That point re taking a certain percentage of everyone's money, its quasi already happened in the US during the 2008 financial crisis when tax payer dollars were used to save the banksters and prevent multiple financial institutions going under. How many people ended up going to jail in the US for that whole ordeal?
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Very true but they didn't scalp it from every bank account.
 
Point here gents is I strongly believe this country is some deep **** currently and were about to fall into a hellish hole we're going to spend months of not years climbing back out of. Am I wrong thinking this?
 
I have made out pretty well day trading !! I don't understand it though !!
 
AllTheGainz said:
Point here gents is I strongly believe this country is some deep **** currently and were about to fall into a hellish hole we're going to spend months of not years climbing back out of. Am I wrong thinking this?
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You are right, there is only soo far that you can kick a can down the road before **** hits the fan...
 
Rocket3015 said:
I have made out pretty well day trading !! I don't understand it though !!
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I am amazed you, let alone any retail punter could have "made out well" day trading. These days the exhanges are dominated by high frequency traders, super sophisticated algorithmic trading systems(sometimes with access legally/illegally) to order information flow which would game us plebs every. single. time. Whats your secret?
 
NoAddedHmones said:
I am amazed you, let alone any retail punter could have "made out well" day trading. These days the exhanges are dominated by high frequency traders, super sophisticated algorithmic trading systems(sometimes with access legally/illegally) to order information flow which would game us plebs every. single. time. Whats your secret?
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I've made 5 figures trading so far. Just a gut feeling and finding the right stocks to buy
 
NoAddedHmones said:
I am amazed you, let alone any retail punter could have "made out well" day trading. These days the exhanges are dominated by high frequency traders, super sophisticated algorithmic trading systems(sometimes with access legally/illegally) to order information flow which would game us plebs every. single. time. Whats your secret?
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Probably .... Dumb Luck !!
 
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