What should I do? (spreadsheet included)

[Qonix]

Tomorrow I'll start my cut.. right now I'm at the end of my bulk with 3200kcal at 183.5lbs, 14.6%bf. My goal is to hit 7% bf in 16weeks max.

Usually on the first week I drop 300kcals, then when I plateau I drop 200 more and so on. This worked pretty fine last 2 years but I never been at 7%, always 9-10%.

A lot of coaches tho (like eric helms, lyle mcdonald,..) suggest a different approach, dropping much more kcal on the first week.
McDonald says maximum daily caloric deficit could be 31kcal per lb from maintenance (in this case 3200kcal) would be apron 800kcal, bringing me at 2400kcal/day as starting point.
From a spreadsheet I've created on those guidelines I should be able perhaps to hit almost 5% over the 16weeks..
Attaching a screen of spreadsheet.

What do you guys thing/suggest?
Of course diet and training will be on check, wishing to keep as much muscle as possible.

PS: in italian peso means weight

 

[john.patterson]

In my opinion, I think your first calorie drop is too drastic. Are you currently gaining weight on 3200 per day? I think the method you've used previously (dropping 200-300) would be a better route. Your first drop in calories is huge, and your subsequent drops are very small. From my own personal experience, dropping only ~130 calories does not always allow you to break fat loss plateaus, especially when you're under 10% bf.

My other question/concern with your numbers is that you haven't factored any lbm loss during your cut. I know it's hard to calculate how much lean mass you'll lose, but keep in mind that you will lose some muscle on a cut. Especially with such a drastic drop in calories. You might end up at your goal weight in 16 weeks, but if you account for some muscle loss you won't be at 5% body fat.

I think dropping calories that quickly right off the bat will set you up for a difficult situation if/when you hit a plateau IMO. Very nice to see you take the time to crunch some numbers and figure all of this out though. I would suggest smaller drops in cals to ensure consistent fat loss, and to give you more calories to play with when you plateau. Getting below 8% isn't easy, and if you're like me your body will fight you every step beyond the 7-8 level

 

[Qonix]

Humm.. I've lowered my kcal intake by 300 (2900 right now) and this week I've gained almost 1lb. This is kinda weird

 

[bradray5871]

Don't just guage yourself by weight, use the mirror and how you feel. You could essentially burn fat and build muscle and we all know lbm outweighs muscle every day of the week. Stick to your guns, and i agree with not making a big drop for two reasons 1: muscle loss, 2: body preservation, a known factor of cutting ( drastic calorie drop shocks or almost stops body metabolism to self preservation mode. It is a marathon, not a sprint, slowly but surely works better than anything for cutting and preserving lbm

 

[john.patterson]

Fat loss is not always linear. I've been in your situation before too, and it's frustrating. I would stick to your current intake for another week and reassess as needed. The good thing is that your calories are high for starting a cut, 2900 is bulking calories for me haha.

I like to stick to two weeks on consistency, and if the progress isn't going how I want it to I adjust. Were you accurately tracking your bulking calories? And were you consistently gaining weight at 3200? If that's the case, your maintenance might be around 2800-2900, which is just a guess. You could either wait another week and stay at 2900, or come down a few hundred more for this coming week and see what happens

 

[mrgoomba]

I think everyone else nailed it.. stay on course. Typically those on contest prep will lower their calories as they go, based on their current LBM. This typically also includes an increase in cardio. I typically recommend not doing cardio (unless you want to for the health benefits) until you need to. Once i get my cals down to say for example, 2500 I really do not want to go lower, so thats when I inject cardio

 

[Qonix]

So far first 2 weeks were a bit disappointing.. 2900kcal (-300 from bulk).
First week +0.7lbs, second -1.2 (which brought me just under my starting weight).

I've decided to make another big drop of 300kcals, now I'm at 2600.. Let's see

 

[john.patterson]

It may seem like slow progress, but it's still progress. I prefer to cut slower because I am able to keep more strength. Are you using any thermogenics/fat burners?

 

[Qonix]

This year I want to try without any fat burner