NCAA spread time
- 09-01-2006, 01:02 PM
NCAA spread time
The new season of ncaa college football has arrived so it is time to discuss the most important thing.
Who will cover the spreads?
For a good start,I went 2-0 last night with Northwestern at -3 and on Minnesota at -17. It felt good.
Some game I am looking at this weekend:
Texas -22 for the first half.
LSU -29 and maybe the first half
Time to narrow things down and have fun.
- 09-01-2006, 07:11 PM
Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
General stuff for me:
1. Never wager more than you can afford to lose
2. Employ a system and follow to the system.
3. Follow trends
4. Ignore the idea about "traps"
5. Study teams
- 09-06-2006, 09:16 AM
Rogue, I need to extended a "thank you" to you. I had completely overlooked Clemson and Auburn. After I read your post, I went and looked at those games. The result was me smiling.
Overall, last weekend went really well for me.
Looking forward to this weekend.
Last edited by size; 09-06-2006 at 09:39 AM.
09-10-2006, 12:30 PM
Weekend comes to an end, and it is time to start looking to next weekend.
One really exciting game(at least to me) is Auburn vs LSU. Great defenses and potent offenses on both teams. Should be exciting.
09-10-2006, 10:18 PM
I read them and appreciate many of your posts.
I hope the school up north kills the ND hype machine. I think a good ND is good for football, but I'm sick of it. I wish for it every year, but this year I have an even larger craving for both OSU and UM to come into The Game undefeated.
09-11-2006, 09:29 AM
Definitely. I pounded LSU, Auburn, Florida, and Louisville. I was trying to make it an SEC weekend but Tenn disappointed me with their total inability to stop the option. Wake Forest also hurt me the inability to score a worthy amount vs a dreadful Duke.Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
LSU vs Auburn is really a tough game to call, I will stay away from it but I looking forward to it. I am interested in seeing how LSU stops Irons, and how Aubrun handles all the various speeds from the stable of LSU rbs.
Another thing worth noting in my mind is the continual improvement of Rutgers. Last year the team made some strides and it appears they are continuing to do so this year.
Temple is terrible.
One of the first games I like thus far, is Arizona State(-9) vs Colorado. Poor Coach Hawkins at Colorado, the Buffs just look horrible. I imagine this line will continue to climb.
09-11-2006, 04:31 PM
Thus far, Arizona State (-9) and WVU(-13.5).
Some first half plays to consider as well.
How about your plays?
Last edited by size; 09-11-2006 at 04:48 PM.
09-11-2006, 07:51 PM
It already has. It opened at -7.5 yesterday. I couldn't believe it when I saw it and of course i pounded it.Originally Posted by size
Also liking Nevada -2, Boise, Florida , Uconn and Texas -28 (bought the hook. I think Rice is going to pay for UT losing last week). I like Rutgers but I'm not sure about the points. They've looked great so far but they've also faced some terrible teams.
09-13-2006, 04:47 PM
I know you never bet on your own team, but I do not see Tress going more than the 30 against his old national championship D.C., Dantonio--now Cinci's head coach. Not to mention he never runs up a score to begin with. Plus, he'll do what he usually does whenever he can which is go into halftime with an outrageous lead and call the dogs off for most of the second half. He's got PSU and Iowa the following 2 weeks and will not give up his hand with unneeded offensive playcalling. If things go right in the first half, you will see a lot of realtime practice given to the 2's and 3's in the second. I've seen him start the third quarter with the second teamers in against Kent State. Then there is this, during that NC year Cinci played OSU very close, as did a lot of other teams. I guess what I am saying is that I do not often like the larger spreads when it comes to OSU.
09-13-2006, 06:03 PM
This is why one would choose to play the first half odds.Originally Posted by BingeAndPurge
09-14-2006, 09:30 AM
USC reasoning please
09-14-2006, 05:59 PM
I think the USC/NU game will be high scoring. Both teams have been hit hard by the injury bug in the secondary, with USC on the worst side of it. If the Huskers don't get pressure on Booty, we are in trouble. I like NU chances, because of a huge improvement in the running game, and as you know Rouge Drone, Zac Taylor is for real at QB. We will move the ball and score on them, but Jarrett poses a problem for our secondary. 28 points against Arkansas came off 5 turnovers. If we don't turn it over, there is no way USC will cover that spread. My optimistic prediction NU 35 USC 31
09-16-2006, 05:25 PM
1st half stunk, but tied the spread at the end. Strange game.Originally Posted by size
09-16-2006, 05:54 PM
In deed, it did. I was not happy.Originally Posted by BingeAndPurge
Thank goodness for Texas at -7 for 1st quarter though.
10-18-2006, 04:26 PM
Went 4-0 last week with Hawaii being my #1 play. It was to easy on that game.
Hawaii looks like a real team this year even off of the island. Brennan is a real QB.
For a mid week game, I think CMU(-6.5) at home is a good play. In fact, CMU is 7-0 ats this year. Bowling Green is really incosistent.
10-18-2006, 10:47 PM
Damn Size, you're gonna make us rich if we use you as an investment LOL
I'm up $3,400 this year and here's what I got for this week. The way I bet is I put $750 on my lock of the week and $50 on all other games I think I can win. In the event that I lose on the lock of the week I go double or nothing until I get it back.
Tennessee -11.5 OVER Alabama
Texas -6.5 OVER Nebraska
Oregon -4 OVER Washington State
Notre Dame -13.5 OVER UCLA
San Diego -5.5 OVER K.C.
New England -5.5 OVER Buffalo
NY Giants +3.5 OVER Dallas
I like the OVER (45.5) in the Giants & Cowboys game as well the over in Seattle & Minnesota (41)
My lock is the OVER in the Seattle & Minnesota game.
10-19-2006, 08:49 AM
Look at LSU for the first half(-17.5). Reason being, it is home night game for LSU where they dominate. LSU has outscored opponents at home in the first half 143-6.
Fresno St. is in a slide. Last week, they lost to Hawaii by 31 at home. Week before, they lost to Utah State. This is not the same team it was in the past.
10-19-2006, 09:25 PM
Originally Posted by size
It is final.
Bowling Green 14
CMU now 8-0 ATS.
10-21-2006, 09:50 PM
uh oh, not a good week for ya. i lost on that damn texas game which was bull****! they absolutely dominated all 4 quarters and the final score does not reflect how the teams matched up. id take that bet everytime.Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
luckily i hit a 3 game parlay with rutgers, a&m, and wisconsin to make up for that loss.
jmh80, how confident are you with those NFL picks? i agree with superdrol and new england but think the cowboys will load on the ginats. i also like arizona -3, green bay +6, and carolina +3
10-21-2006, 10:23 PM
I don't know what game you were watching, but I saw Nebraska come back and score two fourth quarter touchdowns to take the lead 20-19. So how did Texas dominate the entire game? NU gave Texas that win with a stupid fumble. Both teams made mistakes, and both teams shut down the run. Tough loss, but Nebraska main goal this year is to win the north. They will get another shot at Texas in December.
10-21-2006, 10:40 PM
Were you asking me about IW's NFL picks???
Do you think I'm some grand prognosticator or something? (I'm like 1-6 in the pick 'em game.....)
10-21-2006, 11:12 PM
oops, sorry about that, i need to direct that question to IW? i dont know how i screwed that up. my faultOriginally Posted by jmh80
and to AFOX, nebraska scored 2 TD's off of long touchdown passes that should not have happened. and the other TD was a trick play (great call btw, texas got burned bad). other than those 3 plays, they didnt produce much offense. the running game is their strong point, and they managed a respectable 38 yards on the grounds texas actually put together drives and accumulated a bit more first downs. anywho, sorry for the rant, im a little bitter since it cost me 300 bones it was an awesome game to watch nonetheless.
10-22-2006, 12:23 AM
Yeah Hulk, this week has been a real bad one for meOriginally Posted by WannaBeHulk
If Seattle and Minnesota come through with the over of 41 pts. then I still come out a winner this week, even if I lose all my NFL picks too
10-22-2006, 09:15 PM
Things are much better today Hulk. You see, the Vikings knew I put $750 on the over in their game and they helped me with a meaningless touchdown in the 4th quarter to put me up $550 for the week, and I'll finish at $650 or $450 at the very least idepending on the Dallas & NY Giants game. I love gamblingOriginally Posted by WannaBeHulk
10-22-2006, 10:15 PM
i owe you a big one for this call. i blindly bet on it over frustration and made a pretty penny. i actually got the over at 39.5 (it was set at 40 and i bought 1/2 point to make it -120). anyways, thanks for the tip on this one.Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
back to college football... wisconsin and ohio state are both really good at covering spreads and i dont think notre dame has covered one all season. i cant wait to see the boise state/fresno state spread. im thinking upset on this one. BSU looks pretty vulnerable with a poor pass defense, and im not impressed with Ian Johnson. i predict a high scoring game with fresno winning a close one.
10-22-2006, 10:23 PM
Glad I could help you Hulk, do I get 10% ? I doubt FSU will win vs. BSU. The Bulldogs have been horrible this year and BSU is no BCS threat but they will beat FSU. If the spread is between 28-30 then I'd take FSU because there will be many points in this one. BTW, the Philadelhia Eagles games are $$$ on the over this yearOriginally Posted by WannaBeHulk
10-22-2006, 10:49 PM
thanks for the tip about phili games, ill be on the lookout for it next week. boise didnt look impressive at all against NMSU and idaho. idaho gave them a real scare. i dont think either defense will be able to stop either offense in this one but ive always liked pat white and he'll be ready for this *****ry game.Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
im calling navy over notre dame. ND has got to be the most overrated team (maybe USC). triple option will be all over the ND defense. why is brady quinn even in the heisman running? if either spread is over 14 (i think that is a probable spread for tomorrow), ill be throwing down mega bucks.
10-22-2006, 10:54 PM
Yeah, the Cryin Irish fooled the crap out of me. I thought UCLA would keel over on the road because PAC-10 defenses are average at best (except USC) and expected Notre Dame to put up at least 30 points. I was thinking 31-14 Notre Dame but it ended at 20-17.Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
10-22-2006, 11:05 PM
i think we both have gambling problems wait a minute... its not a problem if youre winning! WOOOOOOOOO!!! sounds like youre doing well in the game, and im up $1200 for the season although this weekend was a bit of a scare. it was like a roller coaster ride but i ended with my money back plus some all cause that over spread. thanks again for that one! sports gambling is such a rush placing hundreds of $$ on any given game.Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
10-23-2006, 01:02 AM
im thinking cowboys money line is a lock. i just heard on sportscenter that dallas is 6-1 against NY on monday night football and TO is 5-0 against NY.Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
or taking dallas in the 1st half would be a good bet IMO. NY usually doesnt get rolling til the 4th quarter. any thoughts on this?
10-23-2006, 08:24 PM
Well, my pick is looking good now. Giants are up 12-0 (with the spread it's 15-0) and driving inside the Dallas 20. If they cover the over then I'm up $650 this weekOriginally Posted by WannaBeHulk
BTW, We don't have a gambling problem, we are just unique investors
Here to edit my post, the G-Men pulled it off and they smashed the over. My W-L may not be impressive but I ended up $650 for the week largely in part to a meaningless touchdown late in the Minnesota-Seattle game
PS. I know ESPN mentioned that but past performance is a poor indicator of future performance, especially with the way NFL rosters change now a day
Last edited by Iron Warrior; 10-23-2006 at 11:18 PM.
10-24-2006, 12:38 AM
thats so true, and ive heard it so many times in my business classes. great call on the MNF game! i had dallas in the first half so i lost but still am up for the week. that bet almost came through but bledsoe had to throw a pick (thats for bledsoe).Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
checking the spreads, navy is +14. i dont think notre dame has beaten anybody by more than 14, maybe penn state. but this is at navy. i cant find the fresno/boise line yet. ill probably buy 1/2 put and take navy for a couple hundred. $$$ in the bank
10-24-2006, 12:46 AM
i llike a lot of bets this week. other teams i like for the week and will ix and match in parlays or teasers most likely:
mizzou -2.5 over oklahoma
oregon state +12.5 against USC
texas A&M -5 over baylor
miami +6 against georgia tech (depending on reggie balls health. if hes healthy, by game time then miami's in trouble)
and my favorite: tennessee -4.5 over south carolina
what do you guys think about any of these picks?
10-25-2006, 04:23 PM
any thoughts on tonights game: clemson @ v tech. clemson is favored -4.5 and i honestly dont know who to pick but wanna throw down some $$$ for entertainment purposes. if i had to pick, id take v tech but i do best betting in the big 10 and big 12. who would you guys take?
10-25-2006, 06:02 PM
I am concerned about Clemson b/c Davis may not play and Fry is finished. Davis is listed as probable but on Oct. 24 Bowden said he is 50/50 to play.
Bowden: "Speaking of James, he practiced yesterday but did not do anything. I'd say he's 50-50. It's probably a game day decision on whether or play or not. Reggie Merriweather is 100%. It's the same shoulder."
Still, I think Clemson is better on both sides of the ball. Only positives I can see find for VT are that Clemson has been slightly sloppy with special teams and VT is a thurs. night money maker at home.
10-25-2006, 08:02 PM
this is a really great analysis. it makes a lot of sense on paper that clemson appears to have the edge.Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
that being said, i already placed my bet on v tech. i feel that clemson beat the hell out of a sloppy georgia tech with an unhealthy/injured reggie ball and he brought the team down with him. since this happened, i think it influenced this weeks spread. v tech also knows they cant afford another loss if they want hopes at a BCS bowl (is there an ACC championship game?). im also hoping the questionable clemson players are sidelined. v tech being at home is a great time to bounce back and prove themselves against a solid clemson team.
i think this one is pretty much a crap shoot.
10-25-2006, 08:19 PM
I love the Tennessee -4.5 OVE the fake USC, I'm betting on that oneOriginally Posted by WannaBeHulk
Florida -1.5 OVER Georgia
Tampa Bay +9 OVER NY Giants
Indianapolis +2.5 OVER Denver
UCLA -1 OVER Washington State
Iowa -16 OVER Northern Illinois
The OVER (42.5) in the Eagles-Jaguars game
Vanderbilt -9.5 OVER Duke
NY Jets +1.5 OVER Cleveland
The OVER in the Ohio St & Minnesota game (48 pts.)
My lock is New England -2.5 OVER Minnesota. If I hit this one, the others don't matter
10-26-2006, 12:30 AM
RD, about what percent of your picks to nail ? What do you think of handicapping in other sports like basketball, hockey, & baseball ? There could be a lot of $$$ made in those sports because they play so many games in comparison to football teams.
10-26-2006, 09:30 AM
I base most of my analysis on statistics and trends. This, to me, is more logical than anything else. I try to adjust for injuries but it is difficult to put a numerical value on the loss or addition of a player. I attempt to leave off all values that are not quantitatively measurable. This often means that certain types of games I stay away from such as *****ry games that often have more emotion.
College football is what I am strongest at.
10-26-2006, 11:00 AM
so you wouldnt put a wager on tennessee/south carolina then being a *****ry game? i definitely think tennessee will cover 4.5 points. south carolina is a tough call call because they are very inconsistnet but i feel this will happen even if SC is at the top of their game. i just look for the games that are braodcasted on TV and bet on those games mostly so i can watch and make it fun. i need ESPN gameplan for more variety thoughOriginally Posted by size
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