NCAA spread time

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so you wouldnt put a wager on tennessee/south carolina then being a *****ry game? i definitely think tennessee will cover 4.5 points. south carolina is a tough call call because they are very inconsistnet but i feel this will happen even if SC is at the top of their game.

For me, I would not take this game. UT looks solid and to be the better play but SC is not a bad team. As you mentioned they suffer from inconsistency which also makes it a tougher game to call. If SC can play like they did against Auburn then I think it will be close, if not then I think Tenn wins on a big day from Ainge. Problem is, which SC team shows up.
However, if you see something you like then you should take the play.

[WannaBeHulk]

For me, I would not take this game. UT looks solid and to be the better play but SC is not a bad team. As you mentioned they suffer from inconsistency which also makes it a tougher game to call. If SC can play like they did against Auburn then I think it will be close, if not then I think Tenn wins on a big day from Ainge. Problem is, which SC team shows up.
However, if you see something you like then you should take the play.

ok, the UT/SC spread is now -3.5 so it dropped a full point. this is huge cause now ill probably buy a point and take tennessee for a hefty wager. my only concern is that erik ainge had a bad game against bama so im a little worried he wont respond well to that. i think UT will undoubtedly win but the covering the spread was in question. ill feel safe bringing it down to 2.5. if they do win like i believe they will, chances are it will be by at least a field goal.

all my other picks have changed for the worse though. i liked navy +14 and now its +13. oregon state opened at +13 and is now +11. miami +6 to +5. oh, and i just noticed this one: wake forest -8.5 over UNC. what do you guys think? seems really good to me.

size and RD, who are your picks for the week?

[Iron Warrior]

Baseball bores me to (fill in the blank) don't know much about it, and Hockey, don't know anything about it either.

Keep this in mind when you pay attention to baseball. There is this gambling strategy that many people use when teams playing .600 ball or better play against teams below .500 after 30 games in the season. The strategy is to bet on the team with the higher winning percentage the first game, if they lose go double or nothing the next game, if they lose go double or nothing the third (and usually) final game of the series because there's a 90% probability that the team with the .600 winning percentage doesn't get swept. Look into it next season

[Iron Warrior]

all my other picks have changed for the worse though. i liked navy +14 and now its +13. oregon state opened at +13 and is now +11. miami +6 to +5. oh, and i just noticed this one: wake forest -8.5 over UNC. what do you guys think? seems really good to me.

I'd stay clear from Miami at this point. They have some psychological issues.

[WannaBeHulk]

I'd stay clear from Miami at this point. They have some psychological issues.

true, but larry coker knows his job is on the line and has to find any way to win.

on a side note, go hokies!!! i got clemson -2 for the 2nd half to cover my first bet. so i either win big with both bets or come out a little ahead if my 2nd half bet fails

[jmh80]

Double post....

[jmh80]

I don't know that I'd bet on Miami straight up. But - a 5 point spread might be a good idea.

Reggie Ball is a bad QB. Period. He can lose a game by himself - and we proved against VTech that we can win with a bad offense with defensive points.

I see GT winning by 3 points - something like 13-10 (last year it was 14-10 or so, GT).

I think it's a good idea to take Miami at +5 or 6 - any less, maybe not - not sure it will be all that close.


On UT-S Carolina - UT is damn good. Ainge had a bad week against Bama. And he's fully capable of that - he's an idiot QB. But - I gotta think Cutcliff turns it back around. I think he wants to dig it to Spurrier.
As Size points out - you never know what S Carolina team will show up - and Spurrier seems to have Fulmer's number.
At UT -3, probably a good pick.

Lastly - UNC is TERRIBLE. I think Wake beats them by 2 TD's.

(Doesn't look good with VT up 17-7 over Clemson, eh?)

[WannaBeHulk]

Wanna - I'll give you general pointers, like to generally post bets on favorites early in the week before the spreads widen, but I don't do specific gameplays.

cool, i would love any tips. i know to bet on spreads earlier rather than later but i kinda shot myself in the foot by doing that last week. i got texas -6.5 then it changed to -4 two days later. thats huge!!!

i like your methodology, it has much more merit than mine. i analyze the most recent games and factor in momentum or emotional/team issues. i dont take home field advantage into consideration too much as i feel the environment in college doesnt make nearly as much difference as in the pros. since some stadiums are really tough to play in, i do account for those few. im also bias to bet on my favorite teams. luckily, ohio state has covered every spread except NIU.

i do this purely for entertainment, not to make money. my winnings/losings are linked to my supplement budget so if i do well, i buy more/higher quality supps. if i lose, ill be more economical in my supp spending. its a great system!

[size]

Size, do you quantify trends in some manner, for example with a moving average?

Yes, I use a simple moving average and I also use a weighted one. However, this is just one thing as I do not think alone it works. I look alot at ATS trends and I have a spread equation that I use to see where I think the spread should fall. On trends, I put a much higher value on trends that are in the current year as opposed to previous years. I also look for common factors between teams such as common teams played.


For this weekend, one game I really like is BYU (-7.5).

[WannaBeHulk]

Consider this, WannabeBruceBanner - Does Charlie Weis' ***** and moan about slipping in this week's poll make it more likely that the Irish will run up the score on the Middies to get better poll recognition?

thats funny cause i was gonna post that i didnt feel as comfortable with the navy bet after hearing charlie weiss being pissed at the BCS standings. i do think if they can, and thats a big IF, they will indeed run up the score to prove a point. me and you were on the same page on this one.

all your stat principles are very impressive. unfortunately, i didnt continue with stat classes as far as i wouldve liked because this is excellant info. keep the pointers coming please, im all ears oh, and nice webpage, definitely a useful tool.

[jmh80]

Hey, hey, hey - I resemble that remark RD!

I've been bad at gambling for fun ($5 bets with friends) because I analyze TOO much and try to pick the emotional angle.

Example 1A why I'm bad was my Miami 2006 preseason prediction. How wrong I was....

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For this weekend, one game I really like is BYU (-7.5).

WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

a GREAT weekend for me!. BIG TIME!!!!

[Iron Warrior]

Went 2-3 in college, if the Buckeyes would have them score 1TD I'd have come out on top $50. Oh well, none of this will matter because my big money is on the Patriots on monday night. They should beat them by at least 3 points

Good call size, do you tend to put most of your $$$ on one pick like me ?

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Good call size, do you tend to put most of your $$$ on one pick like me ?

Varies but I tend to be consistent unless something really stands out.


Tonite,
UAB @ SMU- In my opinion, this game should go over the mark at 48. Over the past few weeks, each offense is scoring and each defense is letting the opposition score. This indicates a mark of over the total 48

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Tonite,
UAB @ SMU- In my opinion, this game should go over the mark at 48. Over the past few weeks, each offense is scoring and each defense is letting the opposition score. This indicates a mark of over the total 48

I hope you guys did not play this one. It has sucked. I am checking it online and I am totally surprised, 13 points total into the 4th quarter. Only hope is overtime, but these teams are so bad. Obviously my capping on this one was terrible as well

[WannaBeHulk]

I hope you guys did not play this one. It has sucked. I am checking it online and I am totally surprised, 13 points total into the 4th quarter. Only hope is overtime, but these teams are so bad. Obviously my capping on this one was terrible as well

it happens to the best of us. hey size, what games are you looking at this week? here are my favorites, tell me what ya think:

BC -4 over wake forest
indiana +6 to michigan state
maryland +16 to clemson
georgia -7 over kentucky
arkansas -2 over south carolina

and my money pick looks to be V tech -2 over miami.

i was looking at fresno state -27 but everyone jumped on that and its at 23 right now, damn

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BC -4 over wake forest
indiana +6 to michigan state
maryland +16 to clemson
georgia -7 over kentucky
arkansas -2 over south carolina

Indiana @ Minnesota, not Michigan St., I think that is a good play to look at as I think Indiana may win w/o points.
Ark. -2 seems like a gift. My thoughts point to Ark, but not a play for me.

I think Ball State +35.5 @ Michigan is a good play. I imagine Michigan pulling players so no one gets hurt. Also, Michigan has only gone over 35 points twice this year, both were early games in the season.
Another game I am looking at is Kent State -14 @ Buffalo.

[WannaBeHulk]

Indiana @ Minnesota, not Michigan St., I think that is a good play to look at as I think Indiana may win w/o points.
Ark. -2 seems like a gift. My thoughts point to Ark, but not a play for me.

I think Ball State +35.5 @ Michigan is a good play. I imagine Michigan pulling players so no one gets hurt. Also, Michigan has only gone over 35 points twice this year, both were early games in the season.
Another game I am looking at is Kent State -14 @ Buffalo.

good point about michigan. i actually got burned last week betting on the over of the michigan/northwestern game over 42. NU usually allows many points to teams with lesser offenses so im not sure what happened although it was windy weather. besides that, almost all my other plays won.

thanks for your input. any advice on virginia tech cause i think that looks really good. im starting to second guess myself on the georgia pick since the team always plays at their opponets level. kentucky is terrible though so its undecided as of now.

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thanks for your input. any advice on virginia tech cause i think that looks really good. im starting to second guess myself on the georgia pick since the team always plays at their opponets level. kentucky is terrible though so its undecided as of now.

I do not trust VTech or Miami so to me it is a no play. UGA would seem to be the smarter play in that game; as I feel they are better on both sides than UK is. Not a play for me though.

Another game I am really looking at is Hawaii -27. Hawaii is a complete team this year with a great offense and an acceptable defense. Hawaii will score at least 50. This is a weather pending play.

[jmh80]

RD - When will Mr. Church Hill, TN (see - I got ya on that one...) start getting Mario some more playing time to get the rust off before OSU*?

Hulk - I'm with Size on the VT/Miami game. I'm pretty sure our players have flat out quit. But, our D last year just beat the living hell outta Marcus Vick - and I don't think Sean Glennon is any better of a QB. If our O can get some points early - that could give the D enough confidence for them not to quit.

That being said - we are still coached by one Larry Coker, so it's a Chinese fire-drill as to what plays we'll run or what players will played.
I'm half expecting to see the punter substituted in at QB because Coker has his typical brain fart.