NCAA spread time
- 10-26-2006, 04:40 PM
Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
However, if you see something you like then you should take the play.
- 10-26-2006, 06:15 PM
Originally Posted by size
all my other picks have changed for the worse though. i liked navy +14 and now its +13. oregon state opened at +13 and is now +11. miami +6 to +5. oh, and i just noticed this one: wake forest -8.5 over UNC. what do you guys think? seems really good to me.
size and RD, who are your picks for the week?
- 10-26-2006, 09:24 PM
Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
10-26-2006, 09:26 PM
I'd stay clear from Miami at this point. They have some psychological issues.Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
10-26-2006, 09:31 PM
true, but larry coker knows his job is on the line and has to find any way to win.Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
on a side note, go hokies!!! i got clemson -2 for the 2nd half to cover my first bet. so i either win big with both bets or come out a little ahead if my 2nd half bet fails
10-26-2006, 09:46 PM
10-26-2006, 09:46 PM
I don't know that I'd bet on Miami straight up. But - a 5 point spread might be a good idea.
Reggie Ball is a bad QB. Period. He can lose a game by himself - and we proved against VTech that we can win with a bad offense with defensive points.
I see GT winning by 3 points - something like 13-10 (last year it was 14-10 or so, GT).
I think it's a good idea to take Miami at +5 or 6 - any less, maybe not - not sure it will be all that close.
On UT-S Carolina - UT is damn good. Ainge had a bad week against Bama. And he's fully capable of that - he's an idiot QB. But - I gotta think Cutcliff turns it back around. I think he wants to dig it to Spurrier.
As Size points out - you never know what S Carolina team will show up - and Spurrier seems to have Fulmer's number.
At UT -3, probably a good pick.
Lastly - UNC is TERRIBLE. I think Wake beats them by 2 TD's.
(Doesn't look good with VT up 17-7 over Clemson, eh?)
10-27-2006, 02:29 AM
cool, i would love any tips. i know to bet on spreads earlier rather than later but i kinda shot myself in the foot by doing that last week. i got texas -6.5 then it changed to -4 two days later. thats huge!!!Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
i like your methodology, it has much more merit than mine. i analyze the most recent games and factor in momentum or emotional/team issues. i dont take home field advantage into consideration too much as i feel the environment in college doesnt make nearly as much difference as in the pros. since some stadiums are really tough to play in, i do account for those few. im also bias to bet on my favorite teams. luckily, ohio state has covered every spread except NIU.
i do this purely for entertainment, not to make money. my winnings/losings are linked to my supplement budget so if i do well, i buy more/higher quality supps. if i lose, ill be more economical in my supp spending. its a great system!
10-27-2006, 09:31 AM
Yes, I use a simple moving average and I also use a weighted one. However, this is just one thing as I do not think alone it works. I look alot at ATS trends and I have a spread equation that I use to see where I think the spread should fall. On trends, I put a much higher value on trends that are in the current year as opposed to previous years. I also look for common factors between teams such as common teams played.Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
For this weekend, one game I really like is BYU (-7.5).
10-27-2006, 11:29 AM
thats funny cause i was gonna post that i didnt feel as comfortable with the navy bet after hearing charlie weiss being pissed at the BCS standings. i do think if they can, and thats a big IF, they will indeed run up the score to prove a point. me and you were on the same page on this one.Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
all your stat principles are very impressive. unfortunately, i didnt continue with stat classes as far as i wouldve liked because this is excellant info. keep the pointers coming please, im all ears oh, and nice webpage, definitely a useful tool.
10-27-2006, 06:19 PM
Hey, hey, hey - I resemble that remark RD!
I've been bad at gambling for fun ($5 bets with friends) because I analyze TOO much and try to pick the emotional angle.
Example 1A why I'm bad was my Miami 2006 preseason prediction. How wrong I was....
10-29-2006, 01:49 AM
10-29-2006, 01:00 AM
Went 2-3 in college, if the Buckeyes would have them score 1TD I'd have come out on top $50. Oh well, none of this will matter because my big money is on the Patriots on monday night. They should beat them by at least 3 points
Good call size, do you tend to put most of your $$$ on one pick like me ?
10-31-2006, 02:58 PM
Varies but I tend to be consistent unless something really stands out.Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
UAB @ SMU- In my opinion, this game should go over the mark at 48. Over the past few weeks, each offense is scoring and each defense is letting the opposition score. This indicates a mark of over the total 48
10-31-2006, 08:48 PM
I hope you guys did not play this one. It has sucked. I am checking it online and I am totally surprised, 13 points total into the 4th quarter. Only hope is overtime, but these teams are so bad. Obviously my capping on this one was terrible as wellOriginally Posted by size
11-01-2006, 01:15 AM
it happens to the best of us. hey size, what games are you looking at this week? here are my favorites, tell me what ya think:Originally Posted by size
BC -4 over wake forest
indiana +6 to michigan state
maryland +16 to clemson
georgia -7 over kentucky
arkansas -2 over south carolina
and my money pick looks to be V tech -2 over miami.
i was looking at fresno state -27 but everyone jumped on that and its at 23 right now, damn
11-01-2006, 11:19 AM
Indiana @ Minnesota, not Michigan St., I think that is a good play to look at as I think Indiana may win w/o points.Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
Ark. -2 seems like a gift. My thoughts point to Ark, but not a play for me.
I think Ball State +35.5 @ Michigan is a good play. I imagine Michigan pulling players so no one gets hurt. Also, Michigan has only gone over 35 points twice this year, both were early games in the season.
Another game I am looking at is Kent State -14 @ Buffalo.
11-01-2006, 11:54 AM
good point about michigan. i actually got burned last week betting on the over of the michigan/northwestern game over 42. NU usually allows many points to teams with lesser offenses so im not sure what happened although it was windy weather. besides that, almost all my other plays won.Originally Posted by size
thanks for your input. any advice on virginia tech cause i think that looks really good. im starting to second guess myself on the georgia pick since the team always plays at their opponets level. kentucky is terrible though so its undecided as of now.
11-01-2006, 01:58 PM
I do not trust VTech or Miami so to me it is a no play. UGA would seem to be the smarter play in that game; as I feel they are better on both sides than UK is. Not a play for me though.Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
Another game I am really looking at is Hawaii -27. Hawaii is a complete team this year with a great offense and an acceptable defense. Hawaii will score at least 50. This is a weather pending play.
Last edited by size; 11-01-2006 at 02:26 PM.
11-01-2006, 07:44 PM
RD - When will Mr. Church Hill, TN (see - I got ya on that one...) start getting Mario some more playing time to get the rust off before OSU*?
Hulk - I'm with Size on the VT/Miami game. I'm pretty sure our players have flat out quit. But, our D last year just beat the living hell outta Marcus Vick - and I don't think Sean Glennon is any better of a QB. If our O can get some points early - that could give the D enough confidence for them not to quit.
That being said - we are still coached by one Larry Coker, so it's a Chinese fire-drill as to what plays we'll run or what players will played.
I'm half expecting to see the punter substituted in at QB because Coker has his typical brain fart.
11-01-2006, 08:30 PM
First of all, thank you Patriots for funding my supplement habits for the next 3 months
My picks this week include
My lock is the OVER (49 points) in the Arizona St. & Oregon St. game. PAC-10 defenses are horrible this year, money in the bank !
other picks I like are
New England - 3 OVER Indianapolis
Denver + 2.5 OVER Pittsburgh
Atlanta -5 OVER Detroit
West Virginia +1 OVER Louisville
Nebraska -6 OVER Missouri
Arkansas -2.5 OVER South Carolina
The over in the USC & Stanford game (46.5)
The over in Minnesota & San Francisco (42) - The Vikings alone should put up 31
Last edited by Iron Warrior; 11-01-2006 at 09:10 PM.
11-01-2006, 09:31 PM
But which one sets you up for life ?Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
P.S. I'd kill a Stanford alum to play pro if I could get away with it LOL
11-01-2006, 09:40 PM
11-02-2006, 12:30 AM
looks good IW! my only disagreement is louisville over west virginia. im thinking louiville will win this. WV only has a run game and the cardinals have one of the best rush defenses in the nation. their pass defense struggles but WV isnt a threat with the pass. louisville will put up many points with brohm back and i doubt WV will be able to hang. ive watched WV games and havent been impressed. plus home field advantage for louisville = big win. im just thinking out loud here but i feel strongly about this.Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
p.s. - the over with OSU/ASU looks really solid. excellant choice! will definitely happen IF there arent any weather issues.
11-02-2006, 08:04 AM
WVU @ Louisville - One thing that is worth thinking about is the WVU pass defense. ECU threw for about 250 yards and would have had over 300 if it were not for many dropepd passes. ECU is really the only passing team WVU has faced. So the question I have is how will they handle Brohm?
11-02-2006, 04:04 PM
Brohm hasn't looked so hot since rushing back from that thumb injury. He's got just 1Td and 2 INTs in 2 games and it wasn't like either game was a blowout and they didnt need points. I usually love Louisville at home and I keep reading about UL's rush defense but I also remember Cincy rushing for over 200 yds against them and almost beating them at Papa John's a few weeks ago. Cincy's QB and RB are ok but they're no Slaton and White and Cincy is definitely no WVU. Brohm wasn't even supposed to be back for a few more weeks, definitely isn't 100% and the weather is supposed to be cold and very windy tonight. As much as UL at home has been money in the bank for me the past few years, I like WVU tonite.
11-02-2006, 04:51 PM
11-03-2006, 08:22 AM
As I expected, WVU pass defense got exposed. WVU had no answer for Brohm.
Also, Kent St. -14 is a solid play.
11-03-2006, 10:33 AM
kent state -14? i see it at -16. i put them in the following parlay (i bought at least 1/2 point if not more on every game but i think its solid):Originally Posted by size
kent state -13.5
my other plays this week are indiana again on a straight wager with arkansas and BC. im thinking i might change my money bet from v tech to BC. havent gambled on v tech yet cause betting against miami makes me feel uncomfortable. they can be a threat to any team (also, any team can be a threat to them). both miami and georgia have a problem playing at their opponets level. im starting to like BC over wake more and mare. i caught this at -2.5!!!
11-03-2006, 10:41 AM
Yes, sorry, I had it earlier as now the line has moved. Still looks solid to me. Buffalo is very bad.Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
11-03-2006, 11:34 AM
I rarely bet unless I have a bit of extra money going around, so take this with a grain of salt...but I would be careful with the ACC in conference matchups, they have been unpredictable this year. VT and miami will be a great game though, miami has been playing to the level of their opponents this year, and you never know if the VT of last week will be there, or the VT from the boston college game. I think that miami D might be able to give Ore a tough time, and if Glennon has to go to the air its bad news. I was at the VT-Miami game last year and it was a HUGE game for miami, starting qb and rb went down and they still won by a couple TDs, in Blacksburg no less, definitely a tough environment. I am babbling, gonna stop now, I would say just listen to size.Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
11-03-2006, 08:14 PM
Nope Warn - our starting QB was Kyle Wright and he played in last year's drubbing of VT (I made a thread on here that night). The starting RB at the beginning of the year was Tyrone Moss - he was out. Charlie Jones came in and had the game of his life. He's not played anywhere near that good IMO since that game.
Bottome line - we beat the living sh*t outta VT partly because Marcus Vick was just so bad.
Glennon seems to have the potential to pull a Vick - so I agree with you on this matchup - too tough to call.
I'm still predicting for Miami to lose. They havent' shown me that they can be disciplined enough win (and they still have Larry Coker as the head coach).
But - man, was that 27-7 win fun last year.
11-04-2006, 01:45 AM
Damn you're right Hulk, stupid turn overs and un-special teams killed them. I expected WV to be more explosive and that was the reason I went with them because they had been lights out on a weekly basis. I simply overrated them.Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
P.S. the lock is money my friend, if not I go double or nothing next week and get it back, and some
11-04-2006, 02:14 AM
DAMNIT!!! i transferred my funds from one sports gambling website to another one. my new gambling sportspage only lists over/under bets on select games and ASU/OSU is off so i cannot bet on it. my old sportsbook lists the over/under for that game at 47. im really missing out on this but if i transfer back now, the money wont be in my acct in timeOriginally Posted by Iron Warrior
i have a lot invested in indiana and BC this week. i also put together what i thought was a worthless parlay but im 3 for 3 right now with air force, louisville, and the over in louisville's game. all i need now is georgia, arkansas and v tech to cover. if this happens, ill be a rich man!!!
11-05-2006, 12:06 AM
Well thank you Oregon State & Arizona State, the bank account swelled up a little more this week. I've hit my lock so my side work is done
I've gotta say I'm pretty pissed about the rich kids (Stanford) not being able to score one freaking TD ! Dammit they would have bought me a bottle of Powerfull LOL. USC 42-0 over Stanford & I just needed 5 more points.
11-05-2006, 02:18 AM
ouch... a pretty rough saturday for me between BC, Indiana, and Kent state, i lost quite a bit. luckily, i had a 2 game parlay with arkansas and v tech which covered nicely and recovered some losses. tomorrow, ill be rooting for the falcons over detroit. if this happens ill only be down $100 for the week and lets not discuss what happens if this doesnt work out in my favor
seriously, who would have though minnesota would have blown up like they did? and i really shouldnt have bet on kent state. i know nothing about the MAC. oh well, back to my conservative betting style until i have enough funds again for stupid risks
11-05-2006, 08:49 AM
Not sure what happened there. Up 14-0 and lose 41-14 to a terrible Buffalo team, it really hurt.
On the week, I had a winning record but barely came out ahead thanks to Kent St.
I won Air Force, Ball St, Hawaii, BYU, and Nevada.
Lost Kent State, SMU/UAB over.
5-2 and barely a winning weekend. I hope Kent St. loses ever game they play from this point forward.
Sorry about giving the Kent St. play. I thought it was one of the strongest plays this weekend.
Well, I was correct about Hawaii scoring at least 50 as they had 63. This team is different than other Hawaii teams in the manner that they can play on the road. I imagine lines will be inflated fromt his point forward.
11-05-2006, 11:41 AM
dont worry about it at all. although it did influence my decision, i should have looked into the game myself. i need to to stick with what works for me which is the meaningful games in bigger conferences. i respect your opinion and dont want this to affect your advice on future picks. you have too much knowledge of college football and i like hearing your picks.Originally Posted by size
im now back to my original startegy only betting money line on favored teams that i believe strongly will cover the spread. ill build my empire back slowly but surely.
11-06-2006, 09:30 AM
I know alot of people that thought the same thing. I hit Kent as soon as I saw it. I know a little about the MAC but I know alot about Buffalo and they are terrible. That game shouldn't have been close.Originally Posted by size
11-06-2006, 08:09 PM
That time again. Here's some of my preliminary picks
Boise St. -13.5 OVER San Jose State
The OVER (45) in Temple @ Penn St.
USC -7.5 OVER Oregon
Tennessee +5.5 OVER Arkansas
Denver -7 OVER Oakland
Indianapolis -11.5 OVER Buffalo
Philadelphia -7 OVER Washington
Right now my lock would be Denver -7 OVER Oakland
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