NCAA spread time

[jmh80]

Wanna,
Were you asking me about IW's NFL picks???

Do you think I'm some grand prognosticator or something? (I'm like 1-6 in the pick 'em game.....)

[WannaBeHulk]

Wanna,
Were you asking me about IW's NFL picks???

Do you think I'm some grand prognosticator or something? (I'm like 1-6 in the pick 'em game.....)

oops, sorry about that, i need to direct that question to IW? i dont know how i screwed that up. my fault

and to AFOX, nebraska scored 2 TD's off of long touchdown passes that should not have happened. and the other TD was a trick play (great call btw, texas got burned bad). other than those 3 plays, they didnt produce much offense. the running game is their strong point, and they managed a respectable 38 yards on the grounds texas actually put together drives and accumulated a bit more first downs. anywho, sorry for the rant, im a little bitter since it cost me 300 bones it was an awesome game to watch nonetheless.

[Iron Warrior]

uh oh, not a good week for ya. i lost on that damn texas game which was bull****! they absolutely dominated all 4 quarters and the final score does not reflect how the teams matched up. id take that bet everytime.

luckily i hit a 3 game parlay with rutgers, a&m, and wisconsin to make up for that loss.

jmh80, how confident are you with those NFL picks? i agree with superdrol and new england but think the cowboys will load on the ginats. i also like arizona -3, green bay +6, and carolina +3

Yeah Hulk, this week has been a real bad one for me

If Seattle and Minnesota come through with the over of 41 pts. then I still come out a winner this week, even if I lose all my NFL picks too

[Iron Warrior]

oops, sorry about that, i need to direct that question to IW? i dont know how i screwed that up. my fault

Things are much better today Hulk. You see, the Vikings knew I put $750 on the over in their game and they helped me with a meaningless touchdown in the 4th quarter to put me up $550 for the week, and I'll finish at $650 or $450 at the very least idepending on the Dallas & NY Giants game. I love gambling

[WannaBeHulk]

Yeah Hulk, this week has been a real bad one for me

If Seattle and Minnesota come through with the over of 41 pts. then I still come out a winner this week, even if I lose all my NFL picks too

i owe you a big one for this call. i blindly bet on it over frustration and made a pretty penny. i actually got the over at 39.5 (it was set at 40 and i bought 1/2 point to make it -120). anyways, thanks for the tip on this one.

back to college football... wisconsin and ohio state are both really good at covering spreads and i dont think notre dame has covered one all season. i cant wait to see the boise state/fresno state spread. im thinking upset on this one. BSU looks pretty vulnerable with a poor pass defense, and im not impressed with Ian Johnson. i predict a high scoring game with fresno winning a close one.

[Iron Warrior]

i owe you a big one for this call. i blindly bet on it over frustration and made a pretty penny. i actually got the over at 39.5 (it was set at 40 and i bought 1/2 point to make it -120). anyways, thanks for the tip on this one.

back to college football... wisconsin and ohio state are both really good at covering spreads and i dont think notre dame has covered one all season. i cant wait to see the boise state/fresno state spread. im thinking upset on this one. BSU looks pretty vulnerable with a poor pass defense, and im not impressed with Ian Johnson. i predict a high scoring game with fresno winning a close one.

Glad I could help you Hulk, do I get 10% ? I doubt FSU will win vs. BSU. The Bulldogs have been horrible this year and BSU is no BCS threat but they will beat FSU. If the spread is between 28-30 then I'd take FSU because there will be many points in this one. BTW, the Philadelhia Eagles games are $$$ on the over this year

[WannaBeHulk]

Glad I could help you Hulk, do I get 10% ? I doubt FSU will win vs. BSU. The Bulldogs have been horrible this year and BSU is no BCS threat but they will beat FSU. If the spread is between 28-30 then I'd take FSU because there will be many points in this one. BTW, the Philadelhia Eagles games are $$$ on the over this year

thanks for the tip about phili games, ill be on the lookout for it next week. boise didnt look impressive at all against NMSU and idaho. idaho gave them a real scare. i dont think either defense will be able to stop either offense in this one but ive always liked pat white and he'll be ready for this *****ry game.

im calling navy over notre dame. ND has got to be the most overrated team (maybe USC). triple option will be all over the ND defense. why is brady quinn even in the heisman running? if either spread is over 14 (i think that is a probable spread for tomorrow), ill be throwing down mega bucks.

[Iron Warrior]

thanks for the tip about phili games, ill be on the lookout for it next week. boise didnt look impressive at all against NMSU and idaho. idaho gave them a real scare. i dont think either defense will be able to stop either offense in this one but ive always liked pat white and he'll be ready for this *****ry game.

im calling navy over notre dame. ND has got to be the most overrated team (maybe USC). triple option will be all over the ND defense. why is brady quinn even in the heisman running? if either spread is over 14 (i think that is a probable spread for tomorrow), ill be throwing down mega bucks.

Yeah, the Cryin Irish fooled the crap out of me. I thought UCLA would keel over on the road because PAC-10 defenses are average at best (except USC) and expected Notre Dame to put up at least 30 points. I was thinking 31-14 Notre Dame but it ended at 20-17.

[WannaBeHulk]

Yeah, the Cryin Irish fooled the crap out of me. I thought UCLA would keel over on the road because PAC-10 defenses are average at best (except USC) and expected Notre Dame to put up at least 30 points. I was thinking 31-14 Notre Dame but it ended at 20-17.

i think we both have gambling problems wait a minute... its not a problem if youre winning! WOOOOOOOOO!!! sounds like youre doing well in the game, and im up $1200 for the season although this weekend was a bit of a scare. it was like a roller coaster ride but i ended with my money back plus some all cause that over spread. thanks again for that one! sports gambling is such a rush placing hundreds of $$ on any given game.

[WannaBeHulk]

NY Giants +3.5 OVER Dallas

im thinking cowboys money line is a lock. i just heard on sportscenter that dallas is 6-1 against NY on monday night football and TO is 5-0 against NY.

or taking dallas in the 1st half would be a good bet IMO. NY usually doesnt get rolling til the 4th quarter. any thoughts on this?

[Iron Warrior]

im thinking cowboys money line is a lock. i just heard on sportscenter that dallas is 6-1 against NY on monday night football and TO is 5-0 against NY.

or taking dallas in the 1st half would be a good bet IMO. NY usually doesnt get rolling til the 4th quarter. any thoughts on this?

Well, my pick is looking good now. Giants are up 12-0 (with the spread it's 15-0) and driving inside the Dallas 20. If they cover the over then I'm up $650 this week

BTW, We don't have a gambling problem, we are just unique investors

Here to edit my post, the G-Men pulled it off and they smashed the over. My W-L may not be impressive but I ended up $650 for the week largely in part to a meaningless touchdown late in the Minnesota-Seattle game

PS. I know ESPN mentioned that but past performance is a poor indicator of future performance, especially with the way NFL rosters change now a day

[WannaBeHulk]

PS. I know ESPN mentioned that but past performance is a poor indicator of future performance, especially with the way NFL rosters change now a day

thats so true, and ive heard it so many times in my business classes. great call on the MNF game! i had dallas in the first half so i lost but still am up for the week. that bet almost came through but bledsoe had to throw a pick (thats for bledsoe).

checking the spreads, navy is +14. i dont think notre dame has beaten anybody by more than 14, maybe penn state. but this is at navy. i cant find the fresno/boise line yet. ill probably buy 1/2 put and take navy for a couple hundred. $$$ in the bank

[WannaBeHulk]

i llike a lot of bets this week. other teams i like for the week and will ix and match in parlays or teasers most likely:

mizzou -2.5 over oklahoma
oregon state +12.5 against USC
texas A&M -5 over baylor
miami +6 against georgia tech (depending on reggie balls health. if hes healthy, by game time then miami's in trouble)

and my favorite: tennessee -4.5 over south carolina

what do you guys think about any of these picks?

[WannaBeHulk]

any thoughts on tonights game: clemson @ v tech. clemson is favored -4.5 and i honestly dont know who to pick but wanna throw down some $$$ for entertainment purposes. if i had to pick, id take v tech but i do best betting in the big 10 and big 12. who would you guys take?

[size]

I am concerned about Clemson b/c Davis may not play and Fry is finished. Davis is listed as probable but on Oct. 24 Bowden said he is 50/50 to play.

Bowden: "Speaking of James, he practiced yesterday but did not do anything. I'd say he's 50-50. It's probably a game day decision on whether or play or not. Reggie Merriweather is 100%. It's the same shoulder."

Still, I think Clemson is better on both sides of the ball. Only positives I can see find for VT are that Clemson has been slightly sloppy with special teams and VT is a thurs. night money maker at home.

[WannaBeHulk]

My money's on Clemson. Without getting too deep into my personal metrics, Clemson is the #1 Score O versus VT's #10 Score D, and the Tigers have the #7 Score D versus VT's Score O of #31.

Clemson is run oriented, 57% of their yards from rushing, #4 Rush O versus VT's #22 Rush D, VT is 64% pass oriented against Clemson's #5 Pass efficency D, one that shut down GT's Calvin Johnson last week in defeating GT.

Clemson has a slightly better TOM, and Beamerball is predicated on Special Teams play, but the average of the Kick and Punt returns numbers for the Big Game Chokies is a #60 Average.

Additionally,and as importantly, Clemson has beaten GT and essentially tied BC, VT has lost to both.

this is a really great analysis. it makes a lot of sense on paper that clemson appears to have the edge.

that being said, i already placed my bet on v tech. i feel that clemson beat the hell out of a sloppy georgia tech with an unhealthy/injured reggie ball and he brought the team down with him. since this happened, i think it influenced this weeks spread. v tech also knows they cant afford another loss if they want hopes at a BCS bowl (is there an ACC championship game?). im also hoping the questionable clemson players are sidelined. v tech being at home is a great time to bounce back and prove themselves against a solid clemson team.

i think this one is pretty much a crap shoot.

[Iron Warrior]

i llike a lot of bets this week. other teams i like for the week and will ix and match in parlays or teasers most likely:

mizzou -2.5 over oklahoma
oregon state +12.5 against USC
texas A&M -5 over baylor
miami +6 against georgia tech (depending on reggie balls health. if hes healthy, by game time then miami's in trouble)

and my favorite: tennessee -4.5 over south carolina

what do you guys think about any of these picks?

I love the Tennessee -4.5 OVE the fake USC, I'm betting on that one
OTHER PICKS
Florida -1.5 OVER Georgia
Tampa Bay +9 OVER NY Giants
Indianapolis +2.5 OVER Denver
UCLA -1 OVER Washington State
Iowa -16 OVER Northern Illinois
The OVER (42.5) in the Eagles-Jaguars game
Vanderbilt -9.5 OVER Duke
NY Jets +1.5 OVER Cleveland
The OVER in the Ohio St & Minnesota game (48 pts.)

My lock is New England -2.5 OVER Minnesota. If I hit this one, the others don't matter

[Iron Warrior]

RD, about what percent of your picks to nail ? What do you think of handicapping in other sports like basketball, hockey, & baseball ? There could be a lot of $$$ made in those sports because they play so many games in comparison to football teams.

[size]

I base most of my analysis on statistics and trends. This, to me, is more logical than anything else. I try to adjust for injuries but it is difficult to put a numerical value on the loss or addition of a player. I attempt to leave off all values that are not quantitatively measurable. This often means that certain types of games I stay away from such as *****ry games that often have more emotion.

College football is what I am strongest at.

[WannaBeHulk]

This often means that certain types of games I stay away from such as *****ry games that often have more emotion.

so you wouldnt put a wager on tennessee/south carolina then being a *****ry game? i definitely think tennessee will cover 4.5 points. south carolina is a tough call call because they are very inconsistnet but i feel this will happen even if SC is at the top of their game. i just look for the games that are braodcasted on TV and bet on those games mostly so i can watch and make it fun. i need ESPN gameplan for more variety though