NCAA spread time

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  1. Quote Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
    im thinking cowboys money line is a lock. i just heard on sportscenter that dallas is 6-1 against NY on monday night football and TO is 5-0 against NY.

    or taking dallas in the 1st half would be a good bet IMO. NY usually doesnt get rolling til the 4th quarter. any thoughts on this?
    Well, my pick is looking good now. Giants are up 12-0 (with the spread it's 15-0) and driving inside the Dallas 20. If they cover the over then I'm up $650 this week

    BTW, We don't have a gambling problem, we are just unique investors

    Here to edit my post, the G-Men pulled it off and they smashed the over. My W-L may not be impressive but I ended up $650 for the week largely in part to a meaningless touchdown late in the Minnesota-Seattle game

    PS. I know ESPN mentioned that but past performance is a poor indicator of future performance, especially with the way NFL rosters change now a day
    Last edited by Iron Warrior; 10-24-2006 at 12:18 AM.


  2. Quote Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
    PS. I know ESPN mentioned that but past performance is a poor indicator of future performance, especially with the way NFL rosters change now a day
    thats so true, and ive heard it so many times in my business classes. great call on the MNF game! i had dallas in the first half so i lost but still am up for the week. that bet almost came through but bledsoe had to throw a pick (thats for bledsoe).

    checking the spreads, navy is +14. i dont think notre dame has beaten anybody by more than 14, maybe penn state. but this is at navy. i cant find the fresno/boise line yet. ill probably buy 1/2 put and take navy for a couple hundred. $$$ in the bank
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  3. i llike a lot of bets this week. other teams i like for the week and will ix and match in parlays or teasers most likely:

    mizzou -2.5 over oklahoma
    oregon state +12.5 against USC
    texas A&M -5 over baylor
    miami +6 against georgia tech (depending on reggie balls health. if hes healthy, by game time then miami's in trouble)

    and my favorite: tennessee -4.5 over south carolina

    what do you guys think about any of these picks?

  4. any thoughts on tonights game: clemson @ v tech. clemson is favored -4.5 and i honestly dont know who to pick but wanna throw down some $$$ for entertainment purposes. if i had to pick, id take v tech but i do best betting in the big 10 and big 12. who would you guys take?

  5. I am concerned about Clemson b/c Davis may not play and Fry is finished. Davis is listed as probable but on Oct. 24 Bowden said he is 50/50 to play.

    Bowden: "Speaking of James, he practiced yesterday but did not do anything. I'd say he's 50-50. It's probably a game day decision on whether or play or not. Reggie Merriweather is 100%. It's the same shoulder."

    Still, I think Clemson is better on both sides of the ball. Only positives I can see find for VT are that Clemson has been slightly sloppy with special teams and VT is a thurs. night money maker at home.
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  6. Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    My money's on Clemson. Without getting too deep into my personal metrics, Clemson is the #1 Score O versus VT's #10 Score D, and the Tigers have the #7 Score D versus VT's Score O of #31.

    Clemson is run oriented, 57% of their yards from rushing, #4 Rush O versus VT's #22 Rush D, VT is 64% pass oriented against Clemson's #5 Pass efficency D, one that shut down GT's Calvin Johnson last week in defeating GT.

    Clemson has a slightly better TOM, and Beamerball is predicated on Special Teams play, but the average of the Kick and Punt returns numbers for the Big Game Chokies is a #60 Average.

    Additionally,and as importantly, Clemson has beaten GT and essentially tied BC, VT has lost to both.
    this is a really great analysis. it makes a lot of sense on paper that clemson appears to have the edge.

    that being said, i already placed my bet on v tech. i feel that clemson beat the hell out of a sloppy georgia tech with an unhealthy/injured reggie ball and he brought the team down with him. since this happened, i think it influenced this weeks spread. v tech also knows they cant afford another loss if they want hopes at a BCS bowl (is there an ACC championship game?). im also hoping the questionable clemson players are sidelined. v tech being at home is a great time to bounce back and prove themselves against a solid clemson team.

    i think this one is pretty much a crap shoot.

  7. Quote Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
    i llike a lot of bets this week. other teams i like for the week and will ix and match in parlays or teasers most likely:

    mizzou -2.5 over oklahoma
    oregon state +12.5 against USC
    texas A&M -5 over baylor
    miami +6 against georgia tech (depending on reggie balls health. if hes healthy, by game time then miami's in trouble)

    and my favorite: tennessee -4.5 over south carolina

    what do you guys think about any of these picks?
    I love the Tennessee -4.5 OVE the fake USC, I'm betting on that one
    OTHER PICKS
    Florida -1.5 OVER Georgia
    Tampa Bay +9 OVER NY Giants
    Indianapolis +2.5 OVER Denver
    UCLA -1 OVER Washington State
    Iowa -16 OVER Northern Illinois
    The OVER (42.5) in the Eagles-Jaguars game
    Vanderbilt -9.5 OVER Duke
    NY Jets +1.5 OVER Cleveland
    The OVER in the Ohio St & Minnesota game (48 pts.)

    My lock is New England -2.5 OVER Minnesota. If I hit this one, the others don't matter

  8. RD, about what percent of your picks to nail ? What do you think of handicapping in other sports like basketball, hockey, & baseball ? There could be a lot of $$$ made in those sports because they play so many games in comparison to football teams.

  9. I base most of my analysis on statistics and trends. This, to me, is more logical than anything else. I try to adjust for injuries but it is difficult to put a numerical value on the loss or addition of a player. I attempt to leave off all values that are not quantitatively measurable. This often means that certain types of games I stay away from such as rivalry games that often have more emotion.

    College football is what I am strongest at.

  10. Quote Originally Posted by size
    This often means that certain types of games I stay away from such as rivalry games that often have more emotion.
    so you wouldnt put a wager on tennessee/south carolina then being a rivalry game? i definitely think tennessee will cover 4.5 points. south carolina is a tough call call because they are very inconsistnet but i feel this will happen even if SC is at the top of their game. i just look for the games that are braodcasted on TV and bet on those games mostly so i can watch and make it fun. i need ESPN gameplan for more variety though

  11. Quote Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
    so you wouldnt put a wager on tennessee/south carolina then being a rivalry game? i definitely think tennessee will cover 4.5 points. south carolina is a tough call call because they are very inconsistnet but i feel this will happen even if SC is at the top of their game.
    For me, I would not take this game. UT looks solid and to be the better play but SC is not a bad team. As you mentioned they suffer from inconsistency which also makes it a tougher game to call. If SC can play like they did against Auburn then I think it will be close, if not then I think Tenn wins on a big day from Ainge. Problem is, which SC team shows up.
    However, if you see something you like then you should take the play.

  12. Quote Originally Posted by size
    For me, I would not take this game. UT looks solid and to be the better play but SC is not a bad team. As you mentioned they suffer from inconsistency which also makes it a tougher game to call. If SC can play like they did against Auburn then I think it will be close, if not then I think Tenn wins on a big day from Ainge. Problem is, which SC team shows up.
    However, if you see something you like then you should take the play.
    ok, the UT/SC spread is now -3.5 so it dropped a full point. this is huge cause now ill probably buy a point and take tennessee for a hefty wager. my only concern is that erik ainge had a bad game against bama so im a little worried he wont respond well to that. i think UT will undoubtedly win but the covering the spread was in question. ill feel safe bringing it down to 2.5. if they do win like i believe they will, chances are it will be by at least a field goal.

    all my other picks have changed for the worse though. i liked navy +14 and now its +13. oregon state opened at +13 and is now +11. miami +6 to +5. oh, and i just noticed this one: wake forest -8.5 over UNC. what do you guys think? seems really good to me.

    size and RD, who are your picks for the week?

  13. Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone

    Baseball bores me to (fill in the blank) don't know much about it, and Hockey, don't know anything about it either.
    Keep this in mind when you pay attention to baseball. There is this gambling strategy that many people use when teams playing .600 ball or better play against teams below .500 after 30 games in the season. The strategy is to bet on the team with the higher winning percentage the first game, if they lose go double or nothing the next game, if they lose go double or nothing the third (and usually) final game of the series because there's a 90% probability that the team with the .600 winning percentage doesn't get swept. Look into it next season

  14. Quote Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk

    all my other picks have changed for the worse though. i liked navy +14 and now its +13. oregon state opened at +13 and is now +11. miami +6 to +5. oh, and i just noticed this one: wake forest -8.5 over UNC. what do you guys think? seems really good to me.
    I'd stay clear from Miami at this point. They have some psychological issues.

  15. Quote Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
    I'd stay clear from Miami at this point. They have some psychological issues.
    true, but larry coker knows his job is on the line and has to find any way to win.

    on a side note, go hokies!!! i got clemson -2 for the 2nd half to cover my first bet. so i either win big with both bets or come out a little ahead if my 2nd half bet fails

  16. Double post....
    Last edited by jmh80; 10-27-2006 at 06:15 PM.

  17. I don't know that I'd bet on Miami straight up. But - a 5 point spread might be a good idea.

    Reggie Ball is a bad QB. Period. He can lose a game by himself - and we proved against VTech that we can win with a bad offense with defensive points.

    I see GT winning by 3 points - something like 13-10 (last year it was 14-10 or so, GT).

    I think it's a good idea to take Miami at +5 or 6 - any less, maybe not - not sure it will be all that close.


    On UT-S Carolina - UT is damn good. Ainge had a bad week against Bama. And he's fully capable of that - he's an idiot QB. But - I gotta think Cutcliff turns it back around. I think he wants to dig it to Spurrier.
    As Size points out - you never know what S Carolina team will show up - and Spurrier seems to have Fulmer's number.
    At UT -3, probably a good pick.

    Lastly - UNC is TERRIBLE. I think Wake beats them by 2 TD's.

    (Doesn't look good with VT up 17-7 over Clemson, eh?)

  18. Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    Wanna - I'll give you general pointers, like to generally post bets on favorites early in the week before the spreads widen, but I don't do specific gameplays.
    cool, i would love any tips. i know to bet on spreads earlier rather than later but i kinda shot myself in the foot by doing that last week. i got texas -6.5 then it changed to -4 two days later. thats huge!!!

    i like your methodology, it has much more merit than mine. i analyze the most recent games and factor in momentum or emotional/team issues. i dont take home field advantage into consideration too much as i feel the environment in college doesnt make nearly as much difference as in the pros. since some stadiums are really tough to play in, i do account for those few. im also bias to bet on my favorite teams. luckily, ohio state has covered every spread except NIU.

    i do this purely for entertainment, not to make money. my winnings/losings are linked to my supplement budget so if i do well, i buy more/higher quality supps. if i lose, ill be more economical in my supp spending. its a great system!

  19. Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    Size, do you quantify trends in some manner, for example with a moving average?
    Yes, I use a simple moving average and I also use a weighted one. However, this is just one thing as I do not think alone it works. I look alot at ATS trends and I have a spread equation that I use to see where I think the spread should fall. On trends, I put a much higher value on trends that are in the current year as opposed to previous years. I also look for common factors between teams such as common teams played.


    For this weekend, one game I really like is BYU (-7.5).

  20. Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    Consider this, WannabeBruceBanner - Does Charlie Weis' ***** and moan about slipping in this week's poll make it more likely that the Irish will run up the score on the Middies to get better poll recognition?
    thats funny cause i was gonna post that i didnt feel as comfortable with the navy bet after hearing charlie weiss being pissed at the BCS standings. i do think if they can, and thats a big IF, they will indeed run up the score to prove a point. me and you were on the same page on this one.

    all your stat principles are very impressive. unfortunately, i didnt continue with stat classes as far as i wouldve liked because this is excellant info. keep the pointers coming please, im all ears oh, and nice webpage, definitely a useful tool.

  21. Hey, hey, hey - I resemble that remark RD!

    I've been bad at gambling for fun ($5 bets with friends) because I analyze TOO much and try to pick the emotional angle.

    Example 1A why I'm bad was my Miami 2006 preseason prediction. How wrong I was....

  22. Quote Originally Posted by size
    For this weekend, one game I really like is BYU (-7.5).
    WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    a GREAT weekend for me!. BIG TIME!!!!

  23. Went 2-3 in college, if the Buckeyes would have them score 1TD I'd have come out on top $50. Oh well, none of this will matter because my big money is on the Patriots on monday night. They should beat them by at least 3 points

    Good call size, do you tend to put most of your $$$ on one pick like me ?

  24. Quote Originally Posted by Iron Warrior
    Good call size, do you tend to put most of your $$$ on one pick like me ?
    Varies but I tend to be consistent unless something really stands out.


    Tonite,
    UAB @ SMU- In my opinion, this game should go over the mark at 48. Over the past few weeks, each offense is scoring and each defense is letting the opposition score. This indicates a mark of over the total 48

  25. Quote Originally Posted by size
    Tonite,
    UAB @ SMU- In my opinion, this game should go over the mark at 48. Over the past few weeks, each offense is scoring and each defense is letting the opposition score. This indicates a mark of over the total 48
    I hope you guys did not play this one. It has sucked. I am checking it online and I am totally surprised, 13 points total into the 4th quarter. Only hope is overtime, but these teams are so bad. Obviously my capping on this one was terrible as well

  26. Quote Originally Posted by size
    I hope you guys did not play this one. It has sucked. I am checking it online and I am totally surprised, 13 points total into the 4th quarter. Only hope is overtime, but these teams are so bad. Obviously my capping on this one was terrible as well
    it happens to the best of us. hey size, what games are you looking at this week? here are my favorites, tell me what ya think:

    BC -4 over wake forest
    indiana +6 to michigan state
    maryland +16 to clemson
    georgia -7 over kentucky
    arkansas -2 over south carolina

    and my money pick looks to be V tech -2 over miami.

    i was looking at fresno state -27 but everyone jumped on that and its at 23 right now, damn

  27. Quote Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
    BC -4 over wake forest
    indiana +6 to michigan state
    maryland +16 to clemson
    georgia -7 over kentucky
    arkansas -2 over south carolina
    Indiana @ Minnesota, not Michigan St., I think that is a good play to look at as I think Indiana may win w/o points.
    Ark. -2 seems like a gift. My thoughts point to Ark, but not a play for me.

    I think Ball State +35.5 @ Michigan is a good play. I imagine Michigan pulling players so no one gets hurt. Also, Michigan has only gone over 35 points twice this year, both were early games in the season.
    Another game I am looking at is Kent State -14 @ Buffalo.

  28. Quote Originally Posted by size
    Indiana @ Minnesota, not Michigan St., I think that is a good play to look at as I think Indiana may win w/o points.
    Ark. -2 seems like a gift. My thoughts point to Ark, but not a play for me.

    I think Ball State +35.5 @ Michigan is a good play. I imagine Michigan pulling players so no one gets hurt. Also, Michigan has only gone over 35 points twice this year, both were early games in the season.
    Another game I am looking at is Kent State -14 @ Buffalo.
    good point about michigan. i actually got burned last week betting on the over of the michigan/northwestern game over 42. NU usually allows many points to teams with lesser offenses so im not sure what happened although it was windy weather. besides that, almost all my other plays won.

    thanks for your input. any advice on virginia tech cause i think that looks really good. im starting to second guess myself on the georgia pick since the team always plays at their opponets level. kentucky is terrible though so its undecided as of now.

  29. Quote Originally Posted by WannaBeHulk
    thanks for your input. any advice on virginia tech cause i think that looks really good. im starting to second guess myself on the georgia pick since the team always plays at their opponets level. kentucky is terrible though so its undecided as of now.
    I do not trust VTech or Miami so to me it is a no play. UGA would seem to be the smarter play in that game; as I feel they are better on both sides than UK is. Not a play for me though.

    Another game I am really looking at is Hawaii -27. Hawaii is a complete team this year with a great offense and an acceptable defense. Hawaii will score at least 50. This is a weather pending play.
    Last edited by size; 11-01-2006 at 02:26 PM.

  30. RD - When will Mr. Church Hill, TN (see - I got ya on that one...) start getting Mario some more playing time to get the rust off before OSU*?

    Hulk - I'm with Size on the VT/Miami game. I'm pretty sure our players have flat out quit. But, our D last year just beat the living hell outta Marcus Vick - and I don't think Sean Glennon is any better of a QB. If our O can get some points early - that could give the D enough confidence for them not to quit.

    That being said - we are still coached by one Larry Coker, so it's a Chinese fire-drill as to what plays we'll run or what players will played.
    I'm half expecting to see the punter substituted in at QB because Coker has his typical brain fart.
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