UFC 68 Picks Contest!

[Rogue Drone]

Same rules as the Pride 33 one.

Get your picks in by 9pm Saturday.

Two points for winner, one point for method on all fights.
Tie breaker, only used to seperate ties at the top, the closest time to end on the Main event, Sylvia_Couture.
Three methods - KO (which includes TKO), Sub and Decision.

Reps from all to da Winner.

Official fightcard for UFC 68 "The Uprising" scheduled for 10pm March 3rd at the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio:

-Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (UFC HW Title)
-Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle
-Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald
-Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Jason Lambert
-Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman
-Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti
-Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries
-Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam
-Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent


Countdown™ to UFC® 68

Date: 03/02/2007 11:00 PM ET/PT
Event Type: Spike TV - Show

Go behind the scenes to see fighters preparing for battle in Ohio. Featuring heavyweight title holder Tim Sylvia, Randy Couture, Matt Hughes, Chris Lytle, Rich Franklin and Jason MacDonald.

Premieres Friday, 3/02 at 11pm
Reairs Saturday, 3/03 at 9am and 6pm

 

[Alexander]

UFC 68: Down Goes Ogre!

 

[MisterEZE]

wow...this card doesn't look too hot. I'm glad I'm broke and decided not to go this weekend; although the Arnold would've been fun!

 

[size]

Odds as of 2/28
R COUTURE +220
T SYLVIA -280

C LYTLE +450
M HUGHES -650

J MACDONALD +350
R FRANKLIN -500

J LAMBERT +350
R SOBRAL -450

D MCFEDRIES +210
M KAMPMANN -260

 

[ersatz]

Are those the odds in vegas? I've seen the lines on some betting sites and they are as follows:
Tim Sylvia -280
Randy Couture 220

Matt Hughes -500
Chris Lytle 400

Drew McFedries 220
Martin Kampmann -280


Rich Franklin -500
Jason McDonald 400

Jason Lambert 275
Renato Sobral -350

Rex Holman 220
Matt Hamill -280

 

[zbtboy]

It will be interesting to see how much (or little) Matt Hamill has improved.

 

[size]

Are those the odds in vegas? I've seen the lines on some betting sites and they are as follows:
Tim Sylvia -280
Randy Couture 220

Matt Hughes -500
Chris Lytle 400

Drew McFedries 220
Martin Kampmann -280


Rich Franklin -500
Jason McDonald 400

Jason Lambert 275
Renato Sobral -350

Rex Holman 220
Matt Hamill -280

All are relatively close, the differences are simply line movements as money moves.
I am interested in seeing if Hamill's standup has improved at all(he seems to have great potential), and I certainly hope it has b/c his fights have been painful to watch.

 

[sikdogg]

Here goes my pick...

-Randy Couture (Dec) 2:39
-Matt Hughes (TKO)
-Rich Franklin (KO)
-Renato "Babalu" Sobral (sub)
-Matt Hamill (Dec)
-Jon Fitch (Dec)
-Martin Kampmann (TKO)
-Jamie Varner (Dec)
-Gleison Tibau (Dec)

 

[Alexander]

Wouldn't it be a ***** if Sikdogg won without all the picks.

 

[Mulletsoldier]

-Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (Sylvia KO 3:30 1st)

-Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle (Hughes TKO 2nd)

-Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald (Franklin KO 1st)

-Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Jason Lambert (Babalu Sub 3rd)

-Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman (Hamil Dec)

-Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti (Fiorvanti TKO 2nd)

-Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries (Kampmann TKO 1st)

-Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam (Varner Dec)

-Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent (Tibau Dec)

 

[Alexander]

-Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (Sylvia KO)

-Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle (Hughes TKO)

-Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald (Franklin KO)

-Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Jason Lambert (Babalu Sub)

-Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman (Hamil Dec)

-Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti (Fiorvanti TKO)

-Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries (Kampmann TKO)

-Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam (Varner Dec)

-Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent (Tibau Dec)

You to are missing something fatboy(reference to your failed push/pull meet:duel: ). What time is the KO gonna happen?

 

[ersatz]

-Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (UFC HW Title) Tim KO 3rd 3:23 I think Tim's size and reach will cause Randy problems. I don't think Randy can sub him and his best chance is to get a dec. Tim should eventually catch him. Then Crocop can destroy him.

-Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle Hughes rd2 gnp

-Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald I'll pick Jason as maybe Rich will be gun shy and too tentative and Mcdonald capitalizes by Dec.

-Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Jason Lambert Lambert gasses and Sobral sub 3rd

-Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman Hamill by lnp dec

-Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti Fitch by something

-Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries drew by ko

-Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam Varner by sub rd3

-Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent ?? Dent by dec

Weak card but I'll still buy it.

 

[sikdogg]

I'm not gonna put my picks up yet, and I hate to say it, cause I really like and admire the guy, but I don't want Couture to win, because then he will have to be beaten down by Cro Cop.

I want Tim Sylvia at maximum **** talking cocky when Mirko "Wanderlei" s him, and I will be ringside to see it when it happens.

Yeah, i also want to see Crocop give Sylvia a smackdown but i think Couture is one tough somebiatch and as long as he doesn't try to trade punches with Sylvia... he can win. If Syliva was a more mobile fighter then my pick would have been different, but he is so flat footed that someone like Randy should be able to take him down and squeeze out a decision.

 

[Mulletsoldier]

You to are missing something fatboy(reference to your failed push/pull meet:duel: ). What time is the KO gonna happen?

Damn you, will edit above.

 

[Sir Savage]

Tim Sylvia via decision
Matt Hughes via TKO
Rich Franklin via TKO
Renato "Babalu" Sobral via decision
Matt Hamill via decision
Jon Fitch via TKO
Martin Kampmann via KO
Jamie Varner decision
Gleison Tibau via decision

 

[Alexander]

A decision rendered two minutes and twenty one seconds into a fight? :think:

Get with the program, dogg.

Jesus, we have to force this guy to win.

 

[Alexander]

I suspect you're talking about a younger version of Randy, one that still had trouble with decent striking Heavyweights.

Can he still take a punch, like he once could?

Monson, the ADCC strongman thought, as I Did, that Sylvia was deadmeat on his back, so far Sylvia has proven us all wrong in being able to stand with AA and being able to fend off a man with a more than decent groundgame.

Sylvia does'nt circle like a good striker should, but he can straight backpedal and throw to keep Couture from ducking in, if Randy chases Sylvia like he did Liddell, we know how that ended.

Sylvia knows what Couture has to do to win, he's training hard, give him that much credit, he is a hard worker, to counter Couture's gameplan.

Sylvia should win, but can Couture withstand some blows and tire Sylvia out, I hope so.

 

[Sir Savage]

Speaking of Monson, I was terribly disappointed in his performance against Sylvia. His shots were extremely sloppy and slow. You could see them coming from a mile away. I hope Randy has a much better approach.

 

[ersatz]

We know Randy's approach as he gave it away in the Tito Liddell 2 fight. He criticized Tito for not setting up his shots and that he should have thrown some strikes before shooting. It would close the distance and allow for a deeper shot and better chacne of a takedown. Randy is not a sub guy so he will have to GnP tim for a win. But Randy's going to have to engage Tim in the stand-up if he hopes to take it to the ground and that's where Tim will likely KO him. Or as others have alluded to Tim will backpedal and avoid the takedown and win another borig decision. Randy said he will push the action on Tim and force him to finish the fight so it should be entertaining.

 

[Mulletsoldier]

Couture is, I think, as fight smart as they come, he'll have prepared a counter strategy to anyone's counters to his initial strategy, but smarts and heart only get you so far, does he have the physical tools to pull it off?

We shall see.

Sort of on topic - Did you guys read where Sylvia thought Cro Cop was showing ring rust in his fight with Sanchez, and believes he saw "vunerability" there?

Right, Tim. Mirko says talk to the foot, Pow!

I think Tim says these things to quell the fear in himself. I heard him call Fedor a "little s.h.i.t." once...Ummm??

 

[Rodja]

I think Tim says these things to quell the fear in himself. I heard him call Fedor a "little s.h.i.t." once...Ummm??

Sylvia also said that Aleks has "slow hands"...

This fight has me torn because I don't want to see Randy be executed by CC.

 

[Mulletsoldier]

Sylvia also said that Aleks has "slow hands"...

This fight has me torn because I don't want to see Randy be executed by CC.

Exactly my sentiments. My deep burning hate for Tim Sylvia causes me to wish him harm in every fight, but I Randy is such a quality ambassador to MMA that I don't want to see him destroyed by CC.

 

[jas123]

Sylvia - KO 7:45 or RD 2 2:15
Hughes - decision
Franklin - brutal KO
Babalu - sub
Holman - TKO ???? undecided
Fitch - TKO
Kampmann - TKO
Varner - decision
Tibau - decision

 

[Alexander]

Sylvia - KO 7:45 or 2:45 into the second round.
Hughes - decision
Franklin - brutal KO
Babalu - sub
Holman - TKO ???? undecided
Fitch - TKO
Kampmann - TKO
Varner - decision
Tibau - decision

aka RD 2 2:15.

 

[sikdogg]

A decision rendered two minutes and twenty one seconds into a fight? :think:

Get with the program, dogg.

Your direction said to post a time "the closest time to end on the Main event" but since i think it will go to a decision my time would be the end of the fight... i didn't know what to put so i pulled a number out my ass.

The way i see it... if the fight ends early, it will be due to Sylia winning by KO. I don't think that Couture is stupid enough to go toe-to-toe with Sylvia for very long. I think Liddel drove that lesson home... He will prolly only exchange as a set-up for a takedown. As long as he can continue to take Sylvia down, he should squeeze out a decision.

 

[brass monkey]

Tim Sylvia TKO Rd 3@1:22
Matt Hughes TKO
Rich Franklin TKO
Renato Sobral Sub
Max Hamil TKO
Jon Fitch Sub
Martin Kampmann TKO
Jamie Varner Sub
Jason Dent TKO


I had to go with Tim but my heart was with Randy. I cant wait to see how Hughes and Franklin bounce back.

 

[MisterEZE]

Tim Sylvia vs. Randy Couture [R4 KO 2:35]
Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle [R2 TKO]
Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald [R1 KO]
Babalu vs. Jason Lambert [R2 Sub]
Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman [R2 TKO]
Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti [R2 KO]
Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries [R1 Sub]
Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam [R3 Sub]
Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent [Decision]

Overall not the greatest card the UFC has put out there. But, any fight card has the potential to be exciting (yes, even with the "MAINEIAC" headlining).

It should be nice to see Franklin bounce back. Hopefully Varner/Gilliam makes it onto the PPV.

Also, I'm interested to see Luigi Fioravanti at WW. He always seemed to be a sloppy 185 and should look good at a lower weight. He can definitely throw some leather.

Matt Hamill. DIII Hall of Famer vs Big 10 Champion wrestler. Let's see how that "world-class wrestling" holds up here, could have another snoozer on our hands. Cheers to Improvement!!

Too bad I probably won't even watch the PPV.

Edit: I am disgusted with myself for picking Tim Sylvia. I should never go against Randy...The most non-technical and boring oaf to enter the cage, and he's the goddamm champion...sorry guys; I just can't stand the guy.

 

[jas123]

I'm not a huge Royce fan, but I like the quote in your sig, EZE.

 

[size]

-Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (UFC HW Title) - Couture via KO Rd.5 at 1:30
-Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle - Hughes via KO
-Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald - MacDonald via Sub
-Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Jason Lambert - Babalu via Sub
-Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman - Hamill via KO
-Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti - Luigi via KO
-Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries - Kampmann via KO
-Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam - Gilliam via Decision
-Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent - Tibau via Sub


I just can't bring myself to ever predicting a Sylvia victory.
A quote from Franklin about the fight, "I will knock Jason out in the first round."

 

[sikdogg]

I agree that Franklin's standup is way better and although McDonald's ground game is a little better, i don't think the fight will go in that direction. I also think that the Franklin coming into this fight is the Franklin that we all expected to see in the silva fight.

 

[Beowulf]

-Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (UFC HW Title) - Sylia via KO Rd.3 at 4:30
-Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle - Hughes via TKO
-Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald - Franklin via highlight reel KO in Rd. 1
-Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Jason Lambert - Babalu via Sub
-Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman - Holman via boring a$$ decision
-Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti - Fitch via Dec.
-Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries - McFedries via KO
-Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam - Varner via Sub
-Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent - Tibau via Sub

I have to echo the sentiment of those who don't want to see Couture vs. Crocop. As much as I don't like big Timmy, I think he will go for the KO after Randy's comments.

 

[Beowulf]

-Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (UFC HW Title) - Couture via KO Rd.5 at 1:30
-Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle - Hughes via KO
-Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald - MacDonald via Sub
-Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Jason Lambert - Babalu via Sub
-Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman - Hamill via KO
-Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti - Luigi via KO
-Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries - Kampmann via KO
-Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam - Gilliam via Decision
-Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent - Tibau via Sub


I just can't bring myself to ever predicting a Sylvia victory.
A quote from Franklin about the fight, "I will knock Jason out in the first round."

Size, I'm surprised by a few of your picks. MacDonald looked impressive as hell vs. Herman, but it was Herman. He looked pretty sloppy vs. Leben on the feet, and as I recall, his takedowns were poor and telegraphed. That sh1t won't fly with a Franklin who is out for redemption. I think Mac will get Quarried.

Also, Kampman looked pretty impressive with strikes vs. Leites, but he definitely lacked power. Leites was gassed and stationary, and Kampman kept hitting him, but obviously lacked the KO power. Maybe he was gassed too, but McFedries was in a war with Sakara, and he took a pounding and responded with bombs.

Regardless, should be interesting.

 

[size]

I can believe that Franklin believes this, I do to, after watching Mcdonald's standup versus Leben, he is not in Franklin's class on his feet.

I had to do something different b/c for the last two events my picking has been poor. So I decided to change my method.

I agree with you 100%, Franklin is a much better striker than MacDonald. There is no question about it. However, there is a little logic I am applying here for this fight. One, after such a bad beating Franklin took from Silva, I wonder how Franklin will bounce back. Second, Franklin is usually the bigger and longer fighter in his fights. MacDonald is taller and longer so I wondering if he can stay just outside of Franklin's range on the feet.

Also, Kampman looked pretty impressive with strikes vs. Leites, but he definitely lacked power. Leites was gassed and stationary, and Kampman kept hitting him, but obviously lacked the KO power. Maybe he was gassed too, but McFedries was in a war with Sakara, and he took a pounding and responded with bombs.
Regardless, should be interesting.

I think Kampman will really win via TKO and not a KO but for this contest KO=TKO. Also, I think McFedries usually fights at 205 so I wonder if the weight drop will have a positive or negative impact.

 

[Beowulf]

Your logic makes sense.

 

[Alexander]

Sylvia-KO Rd2 3:00
Hughes-KO
Franklin-KO
Sobral-Sub
Hamill-Dec
Mcfedries-KO
Fitch-KO
Varner-Sub
Tibau-Sub

 

[Vicarious]

-Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (UFC HW Title)
-Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle
-Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald
-Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. Jason Lambert
-Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman
-Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti
-Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries
-Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam
-Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent

Sylvia: KO rd2 2:32
Hughes: sub
MacDonald:KO
Babalo: sub
Hamill: sub
Luigi: KO, can't against a guiny
Mcfedries-KO
Varner: sub
Tibau: ko

heading out to watch in a few

 

[Alexander]

Rogue, you trying to tie me or what. We've got the same time, we have 86.4 seconds to settle this.

 

[Alexander]

Tie goes to the non-decrepid guy. Sorry, I just can't seem to help myself.

 

[Mulletsoldier]

In the event of all tie-breakers, the member who has not taken to rice pudding and Matlock should win. In such a case, RD is automatically precluded because he's so old

 

[Rogue Drone]

Where the **** are my Grampers, Mullet? If I **** my pants again tonight, I'm running you over in my Hoverround.

No more Paprika on my Applesauce, that's just mean.

 

[Mulletsoldier]

At least you have a stealth cover RD. When you come to spinning heel-kick me, all I will see is a head with pants. I'll think I am hallucinating and be utterly susceptible to attack..

 

[size]

A possible scenario I was thinking about for Sylvia vs Couture:
Sylvia continues to do his usual straight line back stepping. Couture goes for a shoot and Syliva back steps and trips over his own feet. His head hits the mat and he knocks himself out. Couture wins, I guess :blink:
Thoughts?

 

[Rogue Drone]

Talk about stealth, Size is always operating undercover.

Thoughts? sylvia is a Dufus, that could happen, he could do a Shamrock like versus Franklin trip that Couture would pounce on.

 

[Mulletsoldier]

I think MacDonald has the highest chance for upset.

 

[Rogue Drone]

Really? The only way that Mac can beat Ace is if Ace is still timid from his Silva KO, otherwise he's far far better on his feet and far more the athlete, contrary to Jason's nickname.

McDonald is getting cred for beating Hermann and Leben well, why? those two are "B" (leben) and "C" (Short Fuse) class among UFC fighters.

Watch, I'll be wrong, MacDonald subs Franklin quick, it happens.

 

[size]

I think Lytle may have a shot against Hughes. If you look at Lytle's record, almost all of his losses have been via decision. So obviously the guy can stay in fights and with the ability to stay in fights comes the ability/possibility to win fights.

 

[Rogue Drone]

You are right, he has great all around skills and I think he knows that Hughes is going back to his bread and butter of shoot and GNP, he'll be prepared for it.

He can beat Hughes standing up, Matt is weak on his feet.

 

[Mulletsoldier]

Really? The only way that Mac can beat Ace is if Ace is still timid from his Silva KO, otherwise he's far far better on his feet and far more the athlete, contrary to Jason's nickname.

McDonald is getting cred for beating Hermann and Leben well, why? those two are "B" (leben) and "C" (Short Fuse) class among UFC fighters.

Watch, I'll be wrong, MacDonald subs Franklin quick, it happens.

Let me explain my reasoning. I think that Couture has a far better chance of beating Sylvia than does Macdonald over Franklin from the onset. So, Couture is not really an upset in my eyes, it is a decently probable situation. All the other fights, in my eyes at least, could be stated as an 'easy pick'. Out of those, I think MacDonald has the greatest chance.

Also, I think Ace is going to have a Loiseau-esque (in keeping with people he has beaten) come back. As opposed to immediately engaging an opponent who is weak in his trademarks, I think he may be slightly timid and fall into MacDonald's greater traits. Now, obviously, Louiseau fought Swick first fight back who was a competent striker, and may not have engaged him for that reason. Even still, I think Mac has the greatest chance.

I still picked Ace though.

 

[Rogue Drone]

I won't argue your with your reasoning, Vis a vis Franklin_Macdonald, I agree, and I believe that Franklin has something to prove to himself and his home state fans, he'll take it to Mac very hard and fast, it will end early and possibly ugly.

Couture besting Sylvia is not an upset, as you say, it's a decent probabilty bet, one reflected by the odds.

 

[ersatz]

**Spoiler alert**
Results posted below so if you haven't seen it don't continue to read.
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1 Jamie Varner defeats Jason Gilliam Submission (Rear Naked Choke) 1 1:34
2 Gleison Tibau defeats Jason Dent Decision (Unanimous) 3 5:00
3 Jon Fitch defeats Luigi Fioravanti Submission (Rear Naked Choke) 2 3:05
4 Matt Hamill defeats Rex Holman TKO (Strikes) 1 4:00
5 Jason Lambert defeats Renato Sobral KO (Punch) 2 3:26
6 Matt Hughes defeats Chris Lytle Decision (Unanimous) 3 5:00
7 Rich Franklin defeats Jason MacDonald TKO (Corner Stoppage) 2 5:00
8 Martin Kampmann defeats Andrew McFedries Submision (Arm-triangle choke) 1 4:06
9 Randy Couture defeats Tim Sylvia Decision (Unanimous) 5 5:00