UFC 67 Picks Contest

[Rogue Drone]

Wow, you have a world class talent for pissing people off, Savage.

 

[Sir Savage]

Ok ok, I see you guys are really pissed off. I'll leave.

I'm dead serious when I say this- I have nothing against you guys at all. Before all of this, I thought it was all in good fun, but I was obviously mistaken. I didn't know that I was seriously pissing some of you guys off this bad. That certainly was not my intent.

I did something wrong and offended some of you and for that, I sincerely apologize.

 

[Rogue Drone]

Uh, Savage.

You've been Punk'd............:icon_lol: :smite: :dance:

 

[Alexander]

None of us meant anything we said, sorry it had to be you, but damn that was a lot of fun. I actually started to feel bad about half way through. No hard feelings, brotha!

 

[Beowulf]

:toofunny: I was torn between guilt and laughter the whole time. Some of us have a greater capacity for cruelty than others. I confess I wanted to let the cat out sooner.

Savage must think he wandered from an MMA forum to an estrogen saturated twilight zone.

 

[somewhatgifted]

Honestly, Im quite impressed with your composure under fire. Truly you must be a man of exceptional honour, as how you behave under stressful/unfavorable situations truly defines your character. Avant and Savage are both top notch an any stabbs at him his company are truly in jest . This proves it!! On to the fights.....!!!

 

[Ubiquitous]

Beo, how could you be part of such a malicious prank? How could you?

For shame.

Sir Savage, you are officially inducted into Snuggle Club, like it or not.

 

[Beowulf]

I concur with somewhatgifted's remarks, and Ubi, you should spend more time in the MMA forum. I'm sure you could have added some character to the prank.

 

[somewhatgifted]

Beo, how could you be part of such a malicious prank? How could you?

For shame.

Sir Savage, you are officially inducted into Snuggle Club, like it or not.

Is snuggle club affiliated with "forced entry club"?

 

[Beowulf]

BTW, you should have known when Rogue made the "flaccid weiner"/"bad boner" comment.

BTW, should we be expecting vengeance?

 

[Sir Savage]

Word???

Mother f*ckers.

Mother f*ckers!!!!!!!!!! You were all in on this???

I'll be damned. Gotta' be the best damn punk ever pulled in the internet. Hahaha!!

Jesus Christ. Do y'all realize I couldn't sleep last night because I was going to have to explain to Par that somehow I mananged to seriously piss off a large portion of the AM board without knowing it? And of course, our board sponsorship and my job, was at stake was a result??

Holy sh*t. Nice one, guys. Y'all really had me going.

Hahahaha!!

 

[Beowulf]

Oh yeah, we were all in on it! You took it well bro. Let the trash talking/genitalia snuggling (Ubi's specialty) continue!

 

[Sir Savage]

Holy moley, what a relief.

You som'b*tches. :icon_lol:

Y'all get to try some of the new Avant stuff (when they come out) for free. It's on me.

 

[somewhatgifted]

Did ya'll notice lutter didnt make weight, idiot.
http://anabolicminds.com/forum/mma/59225-lutter-doesnt-make.html

Its now a noon-title bout.

 

[Rogue Drone]

That was fun, we need to tag team someone else again sometime. We'll coordinate it better next time, now that we all have PM ability. You can pick the target, place and time, Savage, we owe you one.

Question - Does Mirko slap hands with the crowd on his walk-in like the usual UFC fighter, or not?

I'm thinking he won't, just walks straight in with security keeping the crowd back

 

[brass monkey]

wow yall sure had savage squirming. I just heard on the radio that Lutter is going to make a personal apperance at our local MMA event ruckus in cage in two weeks. I cant beleave he did not make weight.

 

[Sir Savage]

That really sucks for Travis, especially if he wins.

I say CroCop doesn't give fives to the crowd. Not really his style.

But he might punk us and give mad fives to the crowd.

 

[somewhatgifted]

That really sucks for Travis, especially if he wins.

I say CroCop doesn't give fives to the crowd. Not really his style.

But he might punk us and give mad fives to the crowd.

Hes a machine like, military head kicking machine. I think he'll come in "in the zone" where there might as well not be people with there arms extended.

 

[Alexander]

Word???

Mother f*ckers.

Mother f*ckers!!!!!!!!!! You were all in on this???

I'll be damned. Gotta' be the best damn punk ever pulled in the internet. Hahaha!!

Jesus Christ. Do y'all realize I couldn't sleep last night because I was going to have to explain to Par that somehow I mananged to seriously piss off a large portion of the AM board without knowing it? And of course, our board sponsorship and my job, was at stake was a result??

Holy sh*t. Nice one, guys. Y'all really had me going.

Hahahaha!!

Damn, didn't mean to make you lose sleep over this. You did handle it really well. I have to ask, what were you thinking the whole time? You had to be thinking that it was just bizarre how you were being attacked out of nowhere. I must confess that it was Rogue and I that planned the Punk. With the evil Roguester wanting to let it go on longer. I noticed you took our bet out of your sig and that's when I knew you were taking this seriously. Damn, that was great, you must've thought communism was taking over, as you were not allowed to make genetilia jokes, bet, have an opinion, or talk for that matter.

 

[jas123]

Sorry, Savage. It was fun, though. If we could have got an apology, it would have been classic. You held strong under pressure:cheers:

 

[Alexander]

wow yall sure had savage squirming. I just heard on the radio that Lutter is going to make a personal apperance at our local MMA event ruckus in cage in two weeks. I cant beleave he did not make weight.

This actually all started because of your crappy rep points.

 

[Alexander]

Sorry, Savage. It was fun, though. If we could have got an apology, it would have been classic. You held strong under pressure:cheers:

Classic it was then, go back through the thread there was a definite apology. That's the point where I started feeling a little bit bad.

 

[Sir Savage]

Damn, didn't mean to make you lose sleep over this. You did handle it really well. I have to ask, what were you thinking the whole time? You had to be thinking that it was just bizarre how you were being attacked out of nowhere. I must confess that it was Rogue and I that planned the Punk. With the evil Roguester wanting to let it go on longer. I noticed you took our bet out of your sig and that's when I knew you were taking this seriously. Damn, that was great, you must've thought communism was taking over, as you were not allowed to make genetilia jokes, bet, have an opinion, or talk for that matter.

Yeah, I was thinking-

"WTF???" the whole time, heheh. I was racking my brain trying to figure out what the hell I could have done wrong.

Actually, no, I didn't take the bet out of my signature. I noticed that all signatures were gone for a brief period there. I thought I had caused some serious trouble not only with the members somehow, but Bobo, too. I figured he must have suspended all sigs temporarily because of our sig bet.

Then I was like "Oh my God- now I'm going to have to have a round table with Par and Bobo about what's going on. How am I going to explain what's going on when I don't even know??"

It was at that point I couldn't sleep, heheheh.

Later on, though, I figured out the sigs must have disappeared because Bobo was implementing AMSpace.

But damn, what a doosey.

 

[Sir Savage]

Sorry, Savage. It was fun, though. If we could have got an apology, it would have been classic. You held strong under pressure:cheers:

Actually, as Alex said, I gave one.

When Beo and Alex started talking about how they wouldn't buy from Avant again and how this reflected very poorly on Avant, I had to give in. There's no way I could have let it continue to reflect badly on Avant. Personal squabbles are one thing, that is a whole other.

That sealed the deal and I gave in.

 

[Beowulf]

I felt like an ass when I got that PM. It truly reached the point of absurdity when Rogue called you a "flaccid weiner" trying to be a "bad boner" or something like that.

If it were done to anyone else it wouldn't matter, but you actually have an investment in being here. Cheers all around to Savage.

On the topic of UFC 67, why the hell is the Huerta fight before the main event? I'm going to a local fight tonight where one of my teammates has a title fight. UFC 67 will be on the big screen, but I'm gonna have to be turning back and forth from screen to ring. The later CC, Page and Silva fight the more likely it will be w/o distraction.

 

[Rogue Drone]

Absurdity, Obscenity, Irony, Frivolity, I gots all the ity bitty tools in my toolbox.

You know how it is, Beo, the organizations try to vary high interest fights with a lower interest one in between, when Sylvia fights it's a good time to clean your PC's registry, pop something in the microwave, take a ****, shower and shave, etc. the guy's been practically an intermission of late.

The only reason I watch that Goober is hoping to see him lose.

 

[stxnas]

Damn Rogue, I just got your PM...I have been busting my ass working on my house all day or I would have jumped in too.
...thanks for the laugh guys!

I don't even remember what this thread is supposed to be about now...

 

[jas123]

Actually, as Alex said, I gave one.

When Beo and Alex started talking about how they wouldn't buy from Avant again and how this reflected very poorly on Avant, I had to give in. There's no way I could have let it continue to reflect badly on Avant. Personal squabbles are one thing, that is a whole other.

That sealed the deal and I gave in.

I guess you did. Man, I feel really bad that you were worried about your job and all. For the record, the more I see of Sherk, the more I like him. Make some room down yonder cause you may have some on Sherk's sack shack.

 

[Beowulf]

I think I posted recently that even though Sherk got beat badly by GSP, he definitely demonstrated some legit standup skills to go with his dominant wrestling. Scary dude at 155.

 

[Rogue Drone]

The winner of the Inaugural UFC/Pride Picks Contest is...

Alexander, MisterEZE and sikdogg, all with 19 points.

Position - Player - Points
1 - Alexander - 19
1 - MisterEZE - 19
1 - sikdogg - 19
4 - brass monkey - 18
4 - rodja - 18
6 - Rogue Drone - 17
7 - Beowulf - 16
7 - jas123 - 16
9 - Sir Savage - 15
10 - Dr. Liftalot - 12
10 - Size - 12
12 - somewhatgifted - 9

Next time, we'll tweak the rules to get more separation.

Congrats to the three, reps from all.

 

[Rodja]

The winner of the Inaugural UFC/Pride Picks Contest is...

Alexander, MisterEZE and sikdogg, all with 19 points.

Position - Player - Points
1 - Alexander - 19
1 - MisterEZE - 19
1 - sikdogg - 19
4 - brass monkey - 18
4 - rodja - 18
6 - Rogue Drone - 17
7 - Beowulf - 16
7 - jas123 - 16
9 - Sir Savage - 15
10 - Dr. Liftalot - 12
10 - Size - 12
12 - somewhatgifted - 9

Next time, we'll tweak the rules to get more separation.

Congrats to the three, reps from all.

Damn Griffin fight. I thought that was a lock...:smite:

 

[Sir Savage]

I think I posted recently that even though Sherk got beat badly by GSP, he definitely demonstrated some legit standup skills to go with his dominant wrestling. Scary dude at 155.

Yeah, no doubt.

If memory serves, though, he's the one who has done the best against GSP in the last couple of years.

Trigg and Hughes got jacked more than Sherk did.

I'm really impressed with my boy when I think how he did against OUR (Avant's) boy, Radach. I mean, here is a natural 155er manhandling a natural 185er. And a good 185er, too.

BTW, repped the three winners. Nice picks, fellers.

 

[brass monkey]

congrats to all winners

 

[Beowulf]

I couldn't rep MisterEZE. I'll get you soon. Gotta spread the love first.

 

[Rogue Drone]

Me too, with Alexandrovich. I'll git ya.

I've been tracking the results and offshore odds for the last 7 UFC and UFN's. It's one of the easiest no brainer plays in sports betting right now, play the avaliable favorites across the board, not just a few, for an easy 10% Return on Investment, give or take about 3%. Nice opportunity that's avaliable about every 4 weeks or so.

 

[jas123]

I think I posted recently that even though Sherk got beat badly by GSP, he definitely demonstrated some legit standup skills to go with his dominant wrestling. Scary dude at 155.

It bothers me that Sherk tried to strike from the bottom and in doing so opened himself up to big punches and the elbow. He should have just kept defending. He didn't seem to know what to do on the bottom. Still I think he looked really good in that fight against a topnotch guy and his standup ain't bad at all.

 

[Sir Savage]

Dude, you are so right. I was screaming when I saw him trying to trade with GSP on his back. I just couldn't believe it. That's probably the dumbest thing you can possibly do in that position.

One of Sherky's biggest faults is that he does stupid things in fights. Against Hughes, he got taken down a couple of times because he looked up at the clock and felt his face for a cut. Against GSP, he tried to trade off of his back. You just can't do that stuff against the top guys.

I think it's because he's so used to fighting and steamrolling lower competition that he "forgets" that he's in BIG fights.

 

[sikdogg]

The winner of the Inaugural UFC/Pride Picks Contest is...

Alexander, MisterEZE and sikdogg, all with 19 points.

Position - Player - Points
1 - Alexander - 19
1 - MisterEZE - 19
1 - sikdogg - 19
4 - brass monkey - 18
4 - rodja - 18
6 - Rogue Drone - 17
7 - Beowulf - 16
7 - jas123 - 16
9 - Sir Savage - 15
10 - Dr. Liftalot - 12
10 - Size - 12
12 - somewhatgifted - 9

Next time, we'll tweak the rules to get more separation.

Congrats to the three, reps from all.

WOOHOO!! :dance:

 

[size]

I've been tracking the results and offshore odds for the last 7 UFC and UFN's. It's one of the easiest no brainer plays in sports betting right now, play the avaliable favorites across the board.

This is really true. I tried to be different for this card and go against the odds with my picks and look where it landed me, at the bottom.

 

[Sir Savage]

Hmm, I need to try that. So simple, yet so effective.

What would be really fun is running some heavy duty stats and forecasting on these fights.

 

[Rogue Drone]

You could, make a decently predictative algorithm for use that was tested against a sufficent amount of data.

Using the all favorites formula, one would have lost a little coin, just a bit, on the last UFC because the odds on the favorites were unusually poor, not perceived as a very competitive contest. Using a flat not incremental betting scheme would work well, I believe, when applied over a few events.

One could calculate the probability of making money with the all favs formula by taking an range of the % of winners in the last five or more events calculated against the odds for the current one, see if it's worthwhile to take the risk or stay out.

It's personally not worth my time, the maximum bet amount at the offshore books is too small for me.

 

[Sir Savage]

I bet I could construct a pretty decent and fairly simple predictive equation using regression analysis in SPSS or hell, even just Excel (for those who don't know, Excel has pretty decent econometrics tools). I could test its significance, normality, etc. I would use various elimination techniques to determine significant variables that make up a "winning fighter".

You know what? I think I'll do that as a little side project. I did something very similar for NBA teams in college.

Y'all throw out factors that you think would help determine a winning fighter. Winning percentage is obvious, but what else? Percentage of knockouts? Percentage of submission? Years in training? What else?

 

[Rogue Drone]

The question would be, where are you going to get the odds on past events? Generate a percentage of winners is not enough, you have to factor in variable odds.

An answer to that would be doing an advanced search at the Sherdog Forum, they archive odds within posts from way back with multiple keywords like +odds and +UFC 52, for example. I'm not exactly sure what the boolean search parameters are there, you can do it here like that Ixquick Metasearch without the + needed and adding search at the Sherdog or other place domain name.

You could try a weighted scale of Ground/Standing/Experience and Athleticism, playing around with the weights given to each.

 

[Sir Savage]

Well I actually wouldn't be trying to calculate probabilities or odds of occurance. I could do that but it's simpler just to do a regression analysis.

What I'd be trying to do is formulate a model that would best predict a good, winning fighter.

Think of it this way- what variables are going to determine the height of children? By far the best predictor is going to be the parents' height. Does extended family play a part? Probably a little. So here we have at least two variables that will help predict how tall kids will be.

Let's extend this a little. What variables might help predict a good NFL player? 40 yard dash, reps with 225 lbs., etc.

Now what if we wanted to try to determine what makes a good fighter? What variables would make a good fighter? Winning percentage, percentage by knockouts, years in training, etc., I would bet all play a part.

What we're doing with regression analysis is taking a large pool of data and trying to find the relevant variables that are the driving force. If we can find those variables, we can use them to help predict how good a fighter will be. We could just bet based on that or go on to calculate probabilities and such.

I don't know if this would be doable, though, since MMA lacks a lot of descriptive statistics that could be useful for predicting good athletes, relative to other sports.

 

[size]

What we're doing with regression analysis is taking a large pool of data and trying to find the relevant variables that are the driving force.

You may experience into problems with this if I am correctly understanding what your approach will be. First, the data will be represented as cross sectional data in your potential model, correct? If so I would expect multicolinearity to be an issue.


In regards to betting, the issue that I would encounter and I think what Rogue is suggesting is "value betting". Sometimes, some guys are such a large favorite that placing a wager is not worth potential the return when compared to the potential loss. In MMA odds, this is something that I have encountered. Part of my logic to using a value betting decision with these fights is the fact the out of the ordinary events can take place in MMA. Think about Coleman vs Rua or Crocop vs Randleman, etc. A fight can be stopped by the oddest events.

 

[Sir Savage]

You may experience into problems with this if I am correctly understanding what your approach will be. First, the data will be represented as cross sectional data in your potential model, correct? If so I would expect multicolinearity to be an issue.

Yep, it very well could be a problem. There could be a whole host of possible issues like that- covariance, non-normality, etc.

 

[MisterEZE]

just realized where all my rep points came from...thanks guys. Alex and sik..you're points are en route!! Nice work guys. I'm very intrigued with the conversation on odds right now as well...interesting ideas.

 

[somewhatgifted]

Hes a machine like, military head kicking machine. I think he'll come in "in the zone" where there might as well not be people with there arms extended.

Hey besides losing horibly i got something right!! next time i may have to research the other fighters better as i knew only a few, excuses aside, that edgar/ griffin fight was crazy!!

 

[jas123]

It would be interesting to come up with a betting scheme. I think, as others have said, that your factor model may be difficult to implement, Savage. You could possibly come up with a system attempts to pick off fighters as overvalued/overhyped based on the quality of their last 5 fights or something. Then if the odds are close bet against them. There should be a lot of improperly valued fighters based on the new-to-MMA crowd and TUF hype and those only exposed to the UFC. Think MacDonald-Herman or Silva-Leben. You could also come up with some sort of unpredictability score for a fighter, like Trigg lately (loses to a can, moves up to 185 and beats a respected Mayhem). Then steer clear of these fighters when betting. This sort of rating system would require a lot of research through old fights, a knowledge of MMA at the "minor league" level and some subjectivity, though.

If you try something, I'd be curious about how you implemented it and what the results were....unless you want to keep them secret.

 

[Sir Savage]

Yeah, I'd definitely share it if it works out and has a high R-squared and F-statistic (high predictive value).

The hardest parts, by far, are going to be 1) Collecting a lot of relevant data on the fighters because relative to other sports, they don't keep a lot of stats and 2) Working out model issues like multicollinearity, covariance, non-normality, etc.

Like I said, I'm not sure if this will work, but I'll work on it as a side project and see what happens.