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Donald Trump running for president

Some more thought to the "independent" math adjustment.

Looking back at 2016 vs 2020.... the 2016 independent Johnson got over 4 million votes while in 2020 the independent Jojo got less than 2 million votes.

In other words, in 2020 the Independents chose red/blue sides to a much higher degree and are already allocated as much as possible to the main candidates. Seems any further massaging/allocation of the independent numbers is an error. No??
 
Haha. Why couldn’t we have JoJo?

And thats where the election rigging really is, November 3's potential election rigging is a distraction from the obvious rigging, which is that if the other candidate who was a mandatory ballot in all 50 states had her rights to be on a platform on the debate stage so Americans hear her voice perhaps we would have a significantly different outcome.
 
Some more thought to the "independent" math adjustment.

Looking back at 2016 vs 2020.... the 2016 independent Johnson got over 4 million votes while in 2020 the independent Jojo got less than 2 million votes.

In other words, in 2020 the Independents chose red/blue sides to a much higher degree and are already allocated as much as possible to the main candidates. Seems any further massaging/allocation of the independent numbers is an error. No??

You cant even assume "independents" still went out and voted. I just registered as a Libertarian but was a life long independent and I can say for absolute certainty if JoJo didnt do anything for me, when I vote I would just skip the presidential and leave it blank and move on to the local elections.
 
Some more thought to the "independent" math adjustment.

Looking back at 2016 vs 2020.... the 2016 independent Johnson got over 4 million votes while in 2020 the independent Jojo got less than 2 million votes.

In other words, in 2020 the Independents chose red/blue sides to a much higher degree and are already allocated as much as possible to the main candidates. Seems any further massaging/allocation of the independent numbers is an error. No??
That’s literally what I did though. On a county by county basis. I will write it out, step by step, to explain when I get home. Until then I feel like something is lost in translation. I’m extrapolating 2016 data (percents) to 2020 voter turnout for DEMOCRAT and REPUBLICAN candidates, and then assuming that ALL the drop in THIRD-PARTY votes (but not all third party votes) by PERCENT (which means a number adjusted for 2020 turnout) switched to voting for Biden.

Im not massaging the 2020 data AT ALL. I’m applying a proposed explanation of how we got from the 2016 results to the 2020 results by explanation of primarily increased turn out and increased third party support of Biden.

Again, I will write it out step by step later.

I am providing an ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION to conspiracy for the results in the county. I am not at all touching 2020 results or 2016 results, only explaining one potential explanation of how we went from what we saw in 2016 to 2020.
 
You cant even assume "independents" still went out and voted. I just registered as a Libertarian but was a life long independent and I can say for absolute certainty if JoJo didnt do anything for me, when I vote I would just skip the presidential and leave it blank and move on to the local elections.
But you have to take some assumptions in calculations. We want to do algebra, not multi variable calculus lol. It won’t be perfect, but it’s still better than nothing. Not to mention EVEN AFTER my methodology one of three counties does have a shift worth looking into further. But nobody wants to even talk about the clearly most interesting one lol.
 
Im not massaging the 2020 data AT ALL. I’m applying a proposed explanation of how we got from the 2016 results to the 2020 results by explanation of primarily increased turn out and increased third party support of Biden.

Sorry if I missed it, are you backing this up with the official data? Or you just assuming? I still find it shocking considering Groper Joe probably has more death, blood on his hands from a half a century of mass murder and stained our Bill of Rights with more urine than any politician alive in office today. Dump by far is the lesser of two evils.
 
But you have to take some assumptions in calculations. We want to do algebra, not multi variable calculus lol. It won’t be perfect, but it’s still better than nothing. Not to mention EVEN AFTER my methodology one of three counties does have a shift worth looking into further. But nobody wants to even talk about the clearly most interesting one lol.

I have a hunch that @muscleupcrohn and I HAVE come to an agreement. All that is required is basic math :)

At least we've got that lol
 
It was more than enough for most people I know. They didn't vote for Biden because they thought he was a good candidate, rather because it was anyone other than Trump. Also, his followers were a large part of why people wanted him out- at least around here with their strong arming and attempts at intimidating people into voting for him. Blocking roads, insane caravans, showing up at voting centers, stupid truck flags, etc

I think most people were surprised he only got 80mil votes.
lol...this post is hilarious...reminds me of don lemon saying there aren't any riots and looting while a banner airing behind him shows buildings on fire :ROFLMAO: and then we have the anti-trumpers promising and making plans to burn washington to the ground if trump were elected-plans were in place!!! almost a entire year of riots/looting and destruction of cities and you say trump supporters used intimidation, damn thanks for the laugh:D

while we are on the subject of math, can anyone tell me how many 'peaceful' riots and lootings there were in 2020?
 
Sorry if I missed it, are you backing this up with the official data? Or you just assuming? I still find it shocking considering Groper Joe probably has more death, blood on his hands from a half a century of mass murder and stained our Bill of Rights with more urine than any politician alive in office today. Dump by far is the lesser of two evils.
I took the reported 2016 data and numbers, and made the ASSUMPTION that all Democrat voters stated Democrat and all Republicans stayed Republican. But then said that the percent of people who no longer voted third party ALL switched to voting for Biden. Those gave me new percents, which I extrapolated totals to the 2020 turnout in said county.

I then COMPARED that to 2020 actual data. In 2 counties it was very close to my hypothetical scenario. In a third it was NOT.

If I said something is 2016 data, I DID NOT TOUCH IT. If I said it is 2020 data, I DID NOT TOUCH IT. I only applied a hypothetical scenario adjustment to 2016 to arrive at a “hypothetical 2020” and saw that 2/3 actual 2020 county results were close to this, while one was NOT.

The ONLY assumptions being made are:

A. Every Hillary voter voted for Biden
B. Every Trump voter voted for Trump
C. The new voters in 2020 kept the same proportional distribution as in 2016 with the exception of third party voters (see D.)
D. The explanation for the decrease in third party voters in 2020 is a result of them deciding to vote for Biden instead.

There are no “doubling up” on anything, since the total numbers still add up. If I doubled up on something, then the total numbers would be off, either too high or too low. That’s a typically good check on math problems.

Your point on D. is valid, that some third party voters may have just sat home and not voted instead of switching to Biden. But I am making a POTENTIAL explanation, not a DEFINITIVE one. And this is a smaller assumption than rampant voter fraud. And much easier to model haha.

Again, I will write it down step by step later.
 
lol...this post is hilarious...reminds me of don lemon saying there aren't any riots and looting while a banner airing behind him shows buildings on fire :ROFLMAO: and then we have the anti-trumpers promising and making plans to burn washington to the ground if trump were elected-plans were in place!!! almost a entire year of riots/looting and destruction of cities and you say trump supporters used intimidation, damn thanks for the laugh:D

while we are on the subject of math, can anyone tell me how many 'peaceful' riots and lootings there were in 2020?
You do know both sides can have had riots, right?
 
I took the reported 2016 data and numbers, and made the ASSUMPTION that all Democrat voters stated Democrat and all Republicans stayed Republican. But then said that the percent of people who no longer voted third party ALL switched to voting for Biden. Those gave me new percents, which I extrapolated totals to the 2020 turnout in said county.

I then COMPARED that to 2020 actual data. In 2 counties it was very close to my hypothetical scenario. In a third it was NOT.

If I said something is 2016 data, I DID NOT TOUCH IT. If I said it is 2020 data, I DID NOT TOUCH IT. I only applied a hypothetical scenario adjustment to 2016 to arrive at a “hypothetical 2020” and saw that 2/3 actual 2020 county results were close to this, while one was NOT.

The ONLY assumptions being made are:

A. Every Hillary voter voted for Biden
B. Every Trump voter voted for Trump
C. The new voters in 2020 kept the same proportional distribution as in 2016 with the exception of third party voters (see D.)
D. The explanation for the decrease in third party voters in 2020 is a result of them deciding to vote for Biden instead.

There are no “doubling up” on anything, since the total numbers still add up. If I doubled up on something, then the total numbers would be off, either too high or too low. That’s a typically good check on math problems.

Your point on D. is valid, that some third party voters may have just sat home and not voted instead of switching to Biden. But I am making a POTENTIAL explanation, not a DEFINITIVE one. And this is a smaller assumption than rampant voter fraud. And much easier to model haha.

Again, I will write it down step by step later.

Thanks for your time...

Just so you know, the Libertarian Party was very divided in 2020 between the Jo Jorgensen camp that ran on a more pragmatic platform and reaching out to talk to the left (she met with BLM) and the Jacob George Hornberger who is a very hardlined Libertarian flip the switch and change things asap candidate. Thats a reason for a drop right there, and these people probably either voted for Dump or no one at all.
 
Thanks for your time...

Just so you know, the Libertarian Party was very divided in 2020 between the Jo Jorgensen camp that ran on a more pragmatic platform and reaching out to talk to the left (she met with BLM) and the Jacob George Hornberger who is a very hardlined Libertarian flip the switch and change things asap candidate.
your girl is a blm supporter?
 
You do know both sides can have had riots, right?
riots? the protest in michigan is the right sided one that comes to my mind and i didn't think it was a riot, at least no targets were looted, lol.

my memory needs refreshing, remind me of the riots and looting by the right?
 
Meeting with BLM doesn’t imply supporting them. Often times people meet with people they don’t agree with to try to see what they’re saying and/or find some common ground that may not initially be evident.
kinda like me contacting isis saying i want to chat-eh? :unsure:
 
lol...this post is hilarious...reminds me of don lemon saying there aren't any riots and looting while a banner airing behind him shows buildings on fire :ROFLMAO: and then we have the anti-trumpers promising and making plans to burn washington to the ground if trump were elected-plans were in place!!! almost a entire year of riots/looting and destruction of cities and you say trump supporters used intimidation, damn thanks for the laugh:D

while we are on the subject of math, can anyone tell me how many 'peaceful' riots and lootings there were in 2020?

And then who followed through on the Capitol- Trump's supporters. Not sure why you always go back to protests and rioting for BLM and try to place this on anyone anti-trump. They weren't trying to intimidate, it was misdirected frustration for a long history of piss poor treatment. Don't mix up that with the Trump morons actually trying to sway the election with their tactics leading up.

And I am not looking to restir this old broken pot with you because we know that you, Puccha, Manifesto, etc.. would never see another side when it comes to Trump (or the crazy GOPers that supported him).
 
your girl is a blm supporter?

She is reaching out and talking to them...thats what you want to do, you want to help them understand why they are in the situation they are in and sell them on our freedoms and liberties.

We are never going to win if we dont convert people from all sides. With Libertarianism you can be as liberal or conservative as you want to be, as long as you dont force your ways on others. I be me, you be you, and we both go our ways without government intervention.
 
riots? the protest in michigan is the right sided one that comes to my mind and i didn't think it was a riot, at least no targets were looted, lol.

my memory needs refreshing, remind me of the riots and looting by the right?
The capitol riot. You know, trespassing on federal property, disobeying police. Looting podiums, laptops, etc. Breaking window. Beating a police officer to death. You already forgot that?
 
And I am not looking to restir this old broken pot with you because we know that you, Puccha, Manifesto, etc.. would never see another side when it comes to Trump (or the crazy GOPers that supported him).
And yet here I am playing the role of Sisyphus, trying to do the impossible.
 
Meeting with BLM doesn’t imply supporting them. Often times people meet with people they don’t agree with to try to see what they’re saying and/or find some common ground that may not initially be evident.

She has a PHD in inustrial and organizational psychology and is a psycology professor at a University, also she has a masters in business. She knows what she is doing.
 
And then who followed through on the Capitol- Trump's supporters. Not sure why you always go back to protests and rioting for BLM and try to place this on anyone anti-trump. They weren't trying to intimidate, it was misdirected frustration for a long history of piss poor treatment. Don't mix up that with the Trump morons actually trying to sway the election with their tactics leading up.
don't mix up terrorizing cities for a whole god damned year a good thing....don't forget those 'peaceful' protests calling for death to cops-i suppose you endorse this behavior?

what they did at the capital was wrong and i don't make excuses for it, unlike you!!!'


it was the anti-trump MORONS who terrorized American cities for a full god damned year.
 
The capitol riot. You know, trespassing on federal property, disobeying police. Looting podiums, laptops, etc. Breaking window. Beating a police officer to death. You already forgot that?
i make no excuse for that...but that came after the election and i was refering to the whole god damned year leading up to the election.
 
don't mix up terrorizing cities for a whole god damned year a good thing....don't forget those 'peaceful' protests calling for death to cops-i suppose you endorse this behavior?

what they did at the capital was wrong and i don't make excuses for it, unlike you!!!'


it was the anti-trump MORONS who terrorized American cities for a full god damned year.
Both sides have idiots who riot and loot and hate cops. The right actually killed an officer in their riot. There is no excuse for any of the violent riots on either side, but don’t pretend that the capital riot didn’t happen, or that it wasn’t people on the right that did it. Or that either side has the monopoly on riots and violence.
 
She has a PHD in inustrial and organizational psychology and is a psycology professor at a University, also she has a masters in business. She knows what she is doing.
then why the hell did she run for president?
 
Both sides have idiots who riot and loot and hate cops. The right actually killed an officer in their riot. There is no excuse for any of the violent riots on either side, but don’t pretend that the capital riot didn’t happen, or that it wasn’t people on the right that did it. Or that either side has the monopoly on riots and violence.

Its all wrong but the protests from the "left" this year were the most costly destructive protests in the history of our nation, police were attacked all across the country, police station lit on fire, etc..... and was defended by the same people who all the sudden claim mass terrorist inssurection just off a few hours on the 6th, even though the Capital was inssurected by the left a couple years ago during the Kavenogh hearings.
 
then why the hell did she run for president?

You get your own bus and get to talk to hippies across the country. Plus if you win you get top security clearance which is really cool, and best of all on top of a 400k salary, you get to move your puppies into a historic mansion built by slaves and secret service will make sure they are well fed at all times.
 
Its all wrong but the protests from the "left" this year were the most costly destructive protests in the history of our nation, police were attacked all across the country, police station lit on fire, etc..... and was defended by the same people who all the sudden claim mass terrorist inssurection just off a few hours on the 6th, even though the Capital was inssurected by the left a couple years ago during the Kavenogh hearings.
And these people condemning the BLM riots and waving thin blue line flags apparently don’t even care enough to televise the funereal of the officer who was killed in the capital riot. Some people only pretend to support the police when it suits their agenda. Extremists on both sides SUCK. Surely we can agree on that and move on. Both sides can have violent hypocrites.
 
And these people condemning the BLM riots and waving thin blue line flags apparently don’t even care enough to televise the funereal of the officer who was killed in the capital riot. Some people only pretend to support the police when it suits their agenda. Extremists on both sides SUCK. Surely we can agree on that and move on. Both sides can have violent hypocrites.
how the hell am i supposed to televise a funeral? don't know how you can put that on me?

yes, i am a extremist...i will support the police and give them the benefit of the doubt-innocent until proven guilty...once convicted of criminal behavior then i will condemn them. trust me i am NOT pretending to support police.
 
Did you not ask what riot the right had? Seeming to neglect this one? Did you forget it, or do you not think it was a riot? Or not carried out by the right?
i already addressed that-see post #50,076...i was talking about the year leading up to the election like i already said...it was a riot and it was wrong and i make no excuses for it...now, we clear?
 
how the hell am i supposed to televise a funeral? don't know how you can put that on me?

yes, i am a extremist...i will support the police and give them the benefit of the doubt-innocent until proven guilty...once convicted of criminal behavior then i will condemn them. trust me i am NOT pretending to support police.
Not you, I’m talking about Fox News, who claims to be pro police all the time yet was the only major news network not airing the funeral. I was NOT talking about you...
 
riots? the protest in michigan is the right sided one that comes to my mind and i didn't think it was a riot, at least no targets were looted, lol.

my memory needs refreshing, remind me of the riots and looting by the right?
I said both sides have riots and you responded with the above. I NEVER talked about “last year.” You I guess imposed that qualification without anyone asking or you mentioning it in the comment? You didn’t say “remind me of riots by the right LAST YEAR.” That would have cleared it right up.
 
Not you, I’m talking about Fox News, who claims to be pro police all the time yet was the only major news network not airing the funeral. I was NOT talking about you...
fox news is NOT the conservative station it once was...i think i heard something about disney acquiring the newly created fox corporation?
 
Yes. You clarified that AFTER I mentioned the capitol riot. You asked for an example of a right riot, not a right riot from last year. I guess you just didn’t properly specify what you were asking?

We are focused on the crime being committed outside of the capitol but not discussing the crime spree happening inside it. It’s public property so not sure how they are trespassing either. I’m no trump supporter but I was hoping they burned that stupid building to the ground. Make politicians afraid again!
 
Guardian report for Dane County in 2020:

Biden: 260,121 (75.7%)
Trump: 78,794 (22.9%)
JoJo: 3,655 (1.2%)

TOTAL: 342,580

2016 Guardian report for Dane County:

Hillary: 217,506 (71.4%)
Trump: 71,270 (23.4%)
Third Parties: 14,858 (4.9%)

So if we took the same PERCENT distribution of votes from 2016, and extrapolated it to the large 2020 voter turnout (combining both third parties into one here), then we have:

Biden: 244,602
Trump: 80,164
JoJo: 16,786

This total is >99.7% of the first total, so there's probably just tiny insignificant rounding errors and whatnot. That is the anticipated 2020 turnout based on the 2016 results assuming NOTHING changed except increased voter turnout.

So Biden ACTUALLY had 6.3% more votes than the do-nothing model would have him receiving, while Trump ACTUALLY received 1.7% LESS votes than the do-nothing model expects. In "hard numbers" this is 15,519 more votes for Biden than "anticipated," and 1,370 less than "anticipated" for Trump. Again, assuming nothing changed except the more people voted with the same exact distribution as in 2016.

But in reality, we now have the benefit of hindsight to see that a lot of third party voters either decided to not vote, or to vote for a major party (those are the two most likely options).

In fact, third-party candidate(s) received 13,121 less votes than "anticipated." So my assumption (which is admittedly over-simplified) gives those votes ALL to Biden, then Biden only ends up with 2,398 more votes than "anticipated," while Trump still stays at 1,370 less votes than "anticipated. So if there was a "swing" of 3,768 votes, out of 342,580, or 1.1%.

The proposed methodology of seeing percent growth relative to 2016 without referencing overall voter turnout seems disingenuous. Yes, Biden had 19.6% more votes in Dane County than Clinton in 2016, but Trump also had 10.6% more votes in the same county than in 2016. While there were over 4 TIMES as many third party votes in 2016 as in 2020. That's right, third party voters were cut in half, and then in half again in 2020. Either they all felt like staying home, which would mean the increased voter turnout had to be even greater for Democrats and Republicans, or they decided not to "waste" their vote and picked Biden or Trump.

In summary, if we assume the overall voter distribution in 2020 was the same as in 2016, but with more people, and that all the people who would have voted third party but didn't compared to the percent in 2016 voted for Biden instead, we have a ~1% discrepancy, which seems totally reasonable given that it's a different election 4 years later, and one candidate is a different person.

Now, what was my original claim? That if the difference between 2016 third party (4.9%) and 2020 actual third party (1.2%), or 3.7% was given to what Biden had in 2016 (71.4%), he would have been predicted (with the power of hindsight calculations) 75.1%. He actually got 75.7%, so 0.6% more than "expected" here, while Trump got 0.5% less than expected.

Add 0.6% and 0.5% and what do you get? 1.1%. Just like I found above.

In summary, a ~1% discrepancy between what ACTUALLY HAPPENED and what would happen if all that changed was total voter output and a shift in anticipated third party voters who dropped to Biden.

So seeing that the shorthand methodology arrives at the same result, if we assume "only" 2/3 of these "dropped" third party voters switched to Biden, and 1/3 switched to Trump:

Biden received 1.8% more votes than anticipated, while Trump receives 1.7% less votes than anticipated, or a 3.5% swing.

Again, considering that this was a different election, with a different candidate, and a different political and social climate, this hardly seems to be CLEAR conspiracy or foul play.

Now, that other Georgia county that had a MUCH BIGGER difference than anticipated, why not look into that instead of this?
 
We are focused on the crime being committed outside of the capitol but not discussing the crime spree happening inside it. It’s public property so not sure how they are trespassing either. I’m no trump supporter but I was hoping they burned that stupid building to the ground. Make politicians afraid again!
I don't think public property means what you think it means. The public doesn't have the right to enter every room of government "public" property at all times while the government is conducting business. Or do you think that you have a right to barge into your governor's office at any time of the day without an appointment or permission because it's "public property." And what happened to "listening to police." Police told people not to enter and even BARRICADED and LOCKED the doors to get in, and the rioters disobeyed law enforcement and destroyed government property to get in. PLEASE do not try to justify their actions. You are not that dumb. I hope...
 
I don't think public property means what you think it means. The public doesn't have the right to enter every room of government "public" property at all times while the government is conducting business. Or do you think that you have a right to barge into your governor's office at any time of the day without an appointment or permission because it's "public property." And what happened to "listening to police." Police told people not to enter and even BARRICADED and LOCKED the doors to get in, and the rioters disobeyed law enforcement and destroyed government property to get in. PLEASE do not try to justify their actions. You are not that dumb. I hope...

Both the violent rioters and just about all the government officials working in that building should all bunk beds in jail with one another.
 
PLEASE do not try to justify their actions. You are not that dumb. I hope...

You do know Capital police called some 7 times to get personal to help them that day and they were ordered no?

Everybody needs to own their crimes, Im not justifying individual choice but there may have been some deeper forces at play here, and Im not just talking about Antifa who was there to instigate violence, and if you know how crowd manipulation works its right in the governments playbook.
 
I don't think public property means what you think it means. The public doesn't have the right to enter every room of government "public" property at all times while the government is conducting business. Or do you think that you have a right to barge into your governor's office at any time of the day without an appointment or permission because it's "public property." And what happened to "listening to police." Police told people not to enter and even BARRICADED and LOCKED the doors to get in, and the rioters disobeyed law enforcement and destroyed government property to get in. PLEASE do not try to justify their actions. You are not that dumb. I hope...

I’m not justifying it. I am simply saying we are worried about one set of criminals and not doing anything about the real criminals that work inside that building. If they would have successfully razed it, the country would be better off. Unless of course you don’t think that politicians are the lowest filthy scumbag piles of crap this universe will ever see... and again as a FYI I am not on the side of the protestors for the reason you may think. I am no fan of Trump. I do however very much hate my government and the shitstains that are running it.
 
Yes. You clarified that AFTER I mentioned the capitol riot. You asked for an example of a right riot, not a right riot from last year. I guess you just didn’t properly specify what you were asking?
those that were involved in the capital riot are being sought after and punished as should be...i only wonder where this punishment was during the entire year leading up to election?

do you know what happened to the criminals arrested at riots that biden's team bailed out? i would be interested to know for sure, but my bet is charges were dropped?
 
those that were involved in the capital riot are being sought after and punished as should be...i only wonder where this punishment was during the entire year leading up to election?

do you know what happened to the criminals arrested at riots that biden's team bailed out? i would be interested to know for sure, but my bet is charges were dropped?
I do not know. Side note: There is more than a little irony in people committing crimes during a pandemic refusing to wear masks that could help stop the spread AND obscure their faces to help them not get caught. And they fear microchips in the vaccine, but bring their GPS tracked phones into the capitol while committing crimes and even post on social media about it.
 
I do not know. Side note: There is more than a little irony in people committing crimes during a pandemic refusing to wear masks that could help stop the spread AND obscure their faces to help them not get caught. And they fear microchips in the vaccine, but bring their GPS tracked phones into the capitol while committing crimes and even post on social media about it.
there is also irony when i see posts that indicate trump supporters/conservatives are the only ones against and refusing to wear masks.
 
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