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F**cking Gas Prices

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    what's this speed limit you speak of?

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    Risk - the crack spread I hear of is the difference between sending a molecule to motor gasoline (or diesel, etc) and to a steam cracker.

    What spread are you speaking of?
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmh80
    Risk - the crack spread I hear of is the difference between sending a molecule to motor gasoline (or diesel, etc) and to a steam cracker.

    What spread are you speaking of?
    The futures relationship between the crude and reduced-distillates. There is a loose triangular-arbitrage relationship which is followed in the crude/UG/HO markets. The Crude and distallates normally stay within a tight-oscillator. The current volatility notwithstanding.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDB
    Price controls have a much higher tendency to do strange things to the economy. Rapid, pronounced rises in prices of any commodity are almost always the result of government meddling in the market, and it's pretty strange to think that the people/entity that caused the problem have the know-how on the best way to fix it. Further meddling always makes the problem worse in the long and short term.

    Just keep that in mind.
    I agree totally bro. Although the oil market is toyed around with by an "entity" or whatever you want to call whoever is doing this. The price of oil is NOT going down. Not soon, not by much. When it does, it will be just part way back, and then it'll slowly creep up again. And then again. This is another oil shock. Inflation will rise. So will interest rates. With the current debt load, be it consumer, corporate or national, many people will undergo a great deal of pressure. IOW: If you have debt, refinance now for longer-term at the best rate you can get and PAY IT DOWN because anyone who doesn't do that will end up in deep sh**.

    But then again, I'm just a black chick with half a shell for a hat, so what could I possibly know?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ss01
    I agree totally bro. Although the oil market is toyed around with by an "entity" or whatever you want to call whoever is doing this. The price of oil is NOT going down. Not soon, not by much. When it does, it will be just part way back, and then it'll slowly creep up again. And then again. This is another oil shock. Inflation will rise. So will interest rates. With the current debt load, be it consumer, corporate or national, many people will undergo a great deal of pressure. IOW: If you have debt, refinance now for longer-term at the best rate you can get and PAY IT DOWN because anyone who doesn't do that will end up in deep sh**.

    But then again, I'm just a black chick with half a shell for a hat, so what could I possibly know?
    If you look at the price adjusted for inflation, other than temporary shocks like this it's gone down fairly steadily over the years. Resource prices tend to do this, but then that's long term over decades of time. What will most likely lead to the price staying at this level or rising more is increased demand from other economies in the world. It's at times like these people should pray for the socialist tendencies in those countries to crack down on the private market and stunt or stop growth. More for us then.
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    Risk,
    So, the crack spread is the profit of a barrel of crude refined into distillate products only (I think C8's and heavier). So this doesn't take into account naptha production (C5-C8)?

    I'm also assuming it doesn't take into account the lights (C4's and ligher).
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmh80
    Risk,
    So, the crack spread is the profit of a barrel of crude refined into distillate products only (I think C8's and heavier). So this doesn't take into account naptha production (C5-C8)?

    I'm also assuming it doesn't take into account the lights (C4's and ligher).
    Right on all counts. This is the crack that traders are concerned with and which they base their regressions.
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    How odd. So, it doesn't take into account some of the biggest components in the motor gasoline pool (naptha) nor the MTBE production from the isobutylene (C4) that is a huge upgrade for RVP and octane in the pool.
    Also doesn't take into account of ethylene and propylene recovery (for polymer make and alkylation).

    I'm really confused as to why such the limited view of a refinery.
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    Due to the fact that the interest is limited to futures contracts. Since the other distillates only trade OTC or in their respective cash markets, and not in the futures exch., there is no need to make the calcs. The CL/UG/HO crack is of great interest to futures-spreaders/traders.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDB
    True, but to be blunt opinions don't matter in the face of reality. If someone would rather have a shortage so long as the prices aren't allowed to rise that's one thing. Denying the reality that price controls cause shortages is another thing entirely. It is basically disregarding reality.


    Yes, that's the point. I don't think just because a majority of people don't get that means it has to be said as anything less than a statment of plain fact.
    What is your definition of reality
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDB
    True, but to be blunt opinions don't matter in the face of reality. If someone would rather have a shortage so long as the prices aren't allowed to rise that's one thing. Denying the reality that price controls cause shortages is another thing entirely. It is basically disregarding reality.


    Yes, that's the point. I don't think just because a majority of people don't get that means it has to be said as anything less than a statment of plain fact.
    You keep talking about reality.

    The reality is over 400 gas stations in FL are being fined for price gouging.


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    Where I am from it went up to 3.25 a gal and is now back to 2.35 a gal! Thankfully
    RIP Ryan, :(
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    Quote Originally Posted by CROWLER
    You keep talking about reality.

    The reality is over 400 gas stations in FL are being fined for price gouging.


    CROWLER
    I hope those fines make their way over here. I'm still paying $2.90 per gallon
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    Quote Originally Posted by CROWLER
    You keep talking about reality.

    The reality is over 400 gas stations in FL are being fined for price gouging.


    CROWLER
    The reality is way more than 400 people are busted for steroid use, possession and sale every year. Maybe every day. That's reality, but it doesn't make it right.

    Quote Originally Posted by CROWLER
    What is your definition of reality
    I think Phil Dick said it was defined this way: Reality is that which doesn't go away when you ignore it.

    Whether the government arrests people for gouging or not doesn't change the fact that 'gouging' is what people do in the market every day: charge the highest price possible in the given market conditions. If the price rise is justified a shortage is prevented. If it's not the people who raised their prices too high will lose business to those who didn't. Either way the market works the way it should.

    Gee, there's a labor shortage in New Orleans right now. I hear Burger King has had to start offerring cash bonuses of 6000 dollars or so if people work there a year just to get workers. Gee, the supply of workers is down, so the price of labor went up ridiculously compared to what it was before the hurricane. Are the workers gouging Burger King? Under the circumstances wouldn't it be more reasonable for previous workers just to come back and work for their previous wages? By your logic any worker who accepted that offer should be arrested and charged with gouging. By mine the price rise in labor is perfectly justified given the relative shortage.

    Not to mention people should be able to sell their labor and their property for whatever price they damn well see fit. Just like any gas station owner should be able to sell his wares for any price he damn well sees fit. It's his. He assumes the risks, he negotiates the contracts, he runs the station, he gets people to work there, he keeps the tanks full, he deals with the accounting, he makes all the decisions and he should get the rewards and pay the consequences of those decisions. It's his ass on the line, not yours or mine or anyone else's, and it takes a lot of nerve couple with little knowledge about economics to say otherwise. My guess is you wouldn't be so high on the gun about gouging if you were selling something and market conditions allowed or even forced you to set prices higher.

    Gee, are the supplement companies gouging when they offer a product at a much higher price until duplicates show up, and only lowering it then? Would you deny DS, ALRI, USP Labs or any of those people the right to charge what they want for their own products? Should we report them and have them arrested? You are always paying the highest price possible, period. When market conditions change in an extreme way that price can change in an extreme way. I don't see anyone complaining when a surplus forces prices down. I don't see anyone complaining that the price of computers has fallen dramatically since their introduction onto the market. I don't see anyone complaining about the availability of sub 20,000 cars these days. I don't see anyone complaing about 0 percet car loans when they're available. I don't see them complaining when mortgages are offerred at super low rates. Sounds to me like people already do know and enjoy the other side of the supply/demand coin, and only complain when they find life inconvenient.

    Fact: price controls cause shortages. This is basic, in every economic text book that covers the subject. It's not a debatable point, any more than saying taking certain steroids causes muscle growth when you eat and train right is debatable. And as Dick said, you can ignore it but that doesn't mean it's going to go away. That to me, is reality.
    Last edited by CDB; 10-23-2005 at 02:17 PM.
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    I see where you're coming from CDB. I know a lot of the worry after Katrina was that the Fed would put a cap on the inudstry, and hold it for too long, and cause major crisis.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwyckemynd00
    I see where you're coming from CDB. I know a lot of the worry after Katrina was that the Fed would put a cap on the inudstry, and hold it for too long, and cause major crisis.
    The was a worry. But the industry is so screwed up in so many different ways, most of them interventions by government at all levels to try and ensure as much energy as cheaply as possible is available. The mistake in that is future allocation, one of the markets primary functions, gows down or gets put on hold altogether. Which means everytime a mouse farts prices could go through the roof, or if they get capped we could get a nice shortage to live with.
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    Here in Canada most oil companies reported quarterly earnings over 50% above same Q last year. Strange, isn't it?
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    Gas prices are never going to go back down. Its good to see that private industry is finally starting to take action. Look at all the new Hybrid vehicles coming out...not only from Toyota but from nearly all major auto manufacturers. I just read today that an energy company in Texas is planning on getting a new-technology windmill farm up and operational by 2010.

    With all these 3rd world countries entering the equivalent of their industrial revolutions, America had better be leading the charge for alternative energy. Sooner or later, even greaseback politicians are going to have to think about the future before their bank accounts.

    BV
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    Pretty simple.
    Last edited by jmh80; 05-28-2006 at 02:43 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigVrunga
    With all these 3rd world countries entering the equivalent of their industrial revolutions, America had better be leading the charge for alternative energy. Sooner or later, even greaseback politicians are going to have to think about the future before their bank accounts.

    BV
    Which is why I'm tempted to say thank God for the price rise. Despite the best attempts to subsidize the process, the price rise in energy is the only thing that's going to make alternatives more viable.
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    Which is why I'm tempted to say thank God for the price rise. Despite the best attempts to subsidize the process, the price rise in energy is the only thing that's going to make alternatives more viable.
    Even though I dont want to pay for it, Im right there with you. Its going to take a lot of people losing money in order for a nation to get motivated to change its primary energy source.

    As consumers, the best thing we can do in the current situation is do our best to conserve to reduce the effects of the price increase. Park that SUV and drive a economy car to work, turn your heat down, etc.

    Or build an ethanol still in your backyard

    BV
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    The high prices pissed me off big time! But after reading and studying ... Screw it let the price go up!

    Bring on Bio-Diesel and Sugar cane based ethanol! Anything renewable!

    Stop fighting wars for oil! Let the Chinese have it! Make the Arabs pay us cash for our TECH! And don`t let anyone start pulling the shale out of the Rockies!
    If you heat this shale to 700 degrees F you will turn this organic carbon (kerogen) into the nastiest, stinkiest, gooiest, pile of oil-like crap that you can imagine. Then if you send it through the gnarliest oil refinery on the planet you can make this s*** into transportation fuel. In the mean time you have created all kinds of nasty byproducts, have polluted the air and groundwater of wherever you have extracted it.
    http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/...ale_retor.html
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    we are just sucking everyone dry then we will tap into our own secret oil stash that just might be the largest in the world EVER.. then they will all bow to us muuuuhahahahahahahahahahvdfsaj krhifdvf.. yeah



    in reality.. i don't see that being far form the truth
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    The high prices pissed me off big time! But after reading and studying ... Screw it let the price go up!

    Bring on Bio-Diesel and Sugar cane based ethanol! Anything renewable!

    Stop fighting wars for oil! Let the Chinese have it! Make the Arabs pay us cash for our TECH! And don`t let anyone start pulling the shale out of the Rockies!
    Exactly. If we had focused on converting our infrastructure over in the 70's and 80's, after the first big oil 'crisis' - the Mideast wouldnt have the money to fund terrorism and all those trillionaire sheiks would still be herding goats. Who knows how history would have turned out, but I doubt we'd be involved in Iraq right now.

    The US would be reaping the benefits of selling our superior energy to developing countries, as well as contributing to a cleaner environment.

    But hey, Im sure that's something the Bush family and all their Saudi friends didnt want to hear about at the time.

    BV
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    Over here is the gas price insane! Around $1.50/litre.
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    Quote Originally Posted by enzo1
    These gas prices are becoming increasingly ridiculous. How does the gas jump .20 cents a gallon in one day. We are almost at 3.00. Is there an end in sight. Someone is getting rich and it's not us. I need a raise to pay for the gas at the pump.
    Fu+#ing gas prices? More like Got Dammit these gas prices are f*cking the Shizzle out of me and make my wallet a dirt poor whore.
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    They have gone down about $1 since they peaked around here. Its funny, I never thought Id be relieved to see gas at $2.55 a gallon!
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    We just hit a all time low around here, 2.25 a gal
    RIP Ryan, :(
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    Same here $2.25
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    we hit another all time low....2.10 a gal
    RIP Ryan, :(
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    I'm gonna go set a company gas station on fire.

    Miami just whupped Virginia Tech.

    Wanna hit up 'da club tonight TC401?
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmh80
    I'm gonna go set a company gas station on fire.

    Miami just whupped Virginia Tech.

    Wanna hit up 'da club tonight TC401?
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    Yea gas has gone down... but my Gas works billed just notified me of an avg
    $50+ a month increase.
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    all this talk about alternative energy sources!!! ahh!! drives me nuts! we don't need it!

    we have enough barrelled oil in 3 states in the US to last approx. 400 years! these "reserves" are more than all of the estimated oil in the middle east! remember, this is oil already barrelled!!

    we HAVE the supply, we HAVE the demand, we just don't have the PERMISSION to drill in other areas to get at the supply because we continue to appease the liberal activists who don't let the big oil companies expand!!!!!

    the prices are not high comparing it to the value of the dollar in the current economy of the time the price was set over the last 50 years!!!

    the gouging is being done by the government and SOME gas stations. it is NOT being done by BIG OIL.

    The ice caps are NOT melting and there are so many flaws in Gore's stupid global warming scam it's not even funny. we don't need to run our cars on sugar, we don't need to get 50 mpg, and we don't need to waste money investigating BIG OIL when all intelligent knows that it is supply and demand mixed with media(i.e.-they show 30-40 car lineups in some state and everyone goes into panic mode fillin all but their pockets with fuel!)

    what we need is to expand our drilling to other areas. this really is pathetic, sick, and makes me sad.

    btw, i'm paying 2.12 here for 87 in my older SUV that gets 15mpg, 2.12 for our 02 Taurus which gets about 20 city, and i believe about 2.3X for 91 in my '04 Kawasaki motorcycle which gets (30-40mpg). one income married 22 year old w/baby on the way. i'm happy. supply and demand.
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    Quote Originally Posted by EEmain
    Yea gas has gone down... but my Gas works billed just notified me of an avg
    $50+ a month increase.
    what do you have in your house thats gas powered? we have a stove, water heater and furnace
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    The ice caps are NOT melting and there are so many flaws in Gore's stupid global warming scam it's not even funny. we don't need to run our cars on sugar, we don't need to get 50 mpg, and we don't need to waste money investigating BIG OIL when all intelligent knows that it is supply and demand mixed with media(i.e.-they show 30-40 car lineups in some state and everyone goes into panic mode fillin all but their pockets with fuel!)
    It would be prudent for everyone to conserve fuel, regardless of price. One, it will keep fuel prices down, and two - it will eventually lead to ending our dependance on foreign oil and provide for a more environmentally safe fuel source.

    Im not saying dont drive your sports car or 10mpg SUV, just save those gas-guzzlers for weekeds and take the hybrid on the commute.

    BV
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magickk
    what do you have in your house thats gas powered? we have a stove, water heater and furnace
    Water heater, stove, dryer and furnace(boiler)... Heating bill will be way up this winter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by sean_25
    we HAVE the supply, we HAVE the demand, we just don't have the PERMISSION to drill in other areas to get at the supply because we continue to appease the liberal activists who don't let the big oil companies expand!!!!!
    Not quite right. While it is a mistake in my opinion to completely ban drilling in certain area because the deer tend to trot there, it's also a mistake to simply give those areas to the oil companies, which would be the result of opening them if congress does that. Opening them up at below actual market cost would cause the supply to go up pretty sharply, costs of entry into the area being swept aside. Then, after the market absorbed that extra supply you would see price hikes like the one we had recently, even worse.



    supply and demand mixed with media(i.e.-they show 30-40 car lineups in some state and everyone goes into panic mode fillin all but their pockets with fuel!)
    Supply and Demand subjugated by a ****load of regulation I'd say.
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    Not quite right. While it is a mistake in my opinion to completely ban drilling in certain area because the deer tend to trot there, it's also a mistake to simply give those areas to the oil companies, which would be the result of opening them if congress does that. Opening them up at below actual market cost would cause the supply to go up pretty sharply, costs of entry into the area being swept aside. Then, after the market absorbed that extra supply you would see price hikes like the one we had recently, even worse.
    That's why fuel prices *need* to stay high. When people realize the price isnt going down, cleaner/cheaper/better sources of fuel will start becoming more widespread. It isnt going to happen as long as we have cheap oil.

    Not that I want to pay for it, either. But looking toward the future, the political and environmental climate of any kids I may have way down the road, global dependence on a non-renewable natural resource has to stop eventually.

    BV
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    I promise I didn't type Sean's respoonse.

    Last edited by jmh80; 05-28-2006 at 02:45 AM.
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