Iran Yay or Nay?

[nopeace]

Started this thread so we can end the old Iraq thread.

Should US attack Iran?

 

[RobInKuwait]

I don't think we can take Iran in a ground invasion without taking 80,000-100,000 casualties. Iraq is flat, Iran is mountainous, like Afghanistan, but much more technologically savy than Afghans. I just wouldn't F with Iran.

 

[SilentBob187]

As much as I'd like to say "Allow them peaceful use of Atomic energy," there are just way too many 'what if' scenarios that could develop. And since inaction is just as bad as improper action, I'd have to say diplomacy first.

If we can ensure that their nuclear program/technology would never fall in to the hands of those who would use them for malice, then I'd be all for Iran using Nuclear power.

An arguement I've heard:
"Why would a country knee deep in oil want to spend money on a new power source for any reason other than malice?"

Damn my circular logic! Diplomacy first.

 

[Rugger]

The gap between nuclear energy and weapons grade nuclear material is so big that I am not worried about Iran. Nevermind the gap between weapons grade material and an actual weapons, which is also huge. They only way they get it anytime soon is if Russia or NK gives it to them. We have NK monitored very well and Russia isn't stupid enough to spill the beans. If this was a big deal it would have already been taken care of, just like the nuclear plant that was bombed in Syria not long ago by the Israelis.

 

[nopeace]

Iran has superior SAM's than Iraq did. The s-300PMU is probably why Israel won't touch Iran, and keep pushing US to do it with our f-22's. Their air force is pretty old though.

No way our ground forces would make it against all the locals. As mentioned before, the terrain is also very difficult to navigate.

 

[nopeace]

YouTube - George Galloway exposes Zionist propaganda

Interesting point of view about how our media is smearing Ahadiajed (whatever! Spelling)

 

[Rugger]

Iran does not have S-300. They have Tor-M1. No one is talking about a ground war with Iran, they're talking about Jericho IIIs and F-15s

 

[nopeace]

Do people here feel he is a legitimate threat? Or are some suspicious that this another preemptive war to get into Iran for commerce and other reasons.

We will hear every excuse in the book:
-Wipe Israel off map misinterpretation
-Funding Hezbollah/Hamas
-He's just Crazy and "tyrannical"
-He wants to wipe America from the earth!
-he's killing our soldier's in Iraq. (may be true)

The American people won't want a war with him especially since we've been bogged down in Iraq.

I predict there will be an action committed to Iran to provoke the US. Or will we provoke them and claim they attacked us.

We've done it before with 1967 Israeli attack on the USS Liberty to blame it on Egypt and enter the war.

 

[CDB]

Fifth option: stay completely out of it. Wish Iran as well as every other nation in the middle east good luck. Pull our troops out, let them hack and maim and stone and female circumcize themselves to death. So long as they don't bother us, keep a happy face and trade porn and sausage for oil.

 

[nopeace]

Iran does not have S-300. They have Tor-M1. No one is talking about a ground war with Iran, they're talking about Jericho IIIs and F-15s

Wrong they have the s-300PMU-1 and s-300PMU-2
along with s-200 and manyTOR m1's.

Israel won't be able to strike Iran with either f-15i's or f-16i's without accepting some serious losses. Both of these aircraft have massive RCS's and will be detected long before they are in striking distance. Anti-radiation missile won't work either because Tor-m1 is capable of intercepting those. Plus they must face off with Mig-29's and older f-14's as well.

They also have a supercavitation torpedo called the "hoot" which is potentially a variant of the Russian Shkval. This torpedo moves way too fast(360 km/h) for any ship to out maneuver it. Basically an underwater missile.

In the works right now, Iran is or has ordered Russian SU-30MKM's a very formidable aircraft and far superior to f-15/16s. Potentially, also Chinese fighter craft as well. Their economy has not been struck by the worldwide downturn either so they will be functioning well for years to come.



In my opinion Israel want's to have complete dominance in the region, they even prevented the sale of f-15's to Saudi Arabia along with other weapons, and we had to strip them of offensive capability and had them used only for defensive purposes.

Iran will not fire missiles at Israel, and will not give material to be used as a dirty bomb because all fingers will point to him right away. One missile and his country will be obliterated.

As mentioned before Pakistan does have Nukes and plenty of radicals waiting to seize control of the Government, so I think they are a threat more than Iran.

 

[nopeace]

Fifth option: stay completely out of it. Wish Iran as well as every other nation in the middle east good luck. Pull our troops out, let them hack and maim and stone and female circumcize themselves to death. So long as they don't bother us, keep a happy face and trade porn and sausage for oil.

That's what I say, get the heck out of there and keep tabs on them.

 

[Rugger]

Wrong they have the s-300PMU-1 and s-300PMU-2
along with s-200 and manyTOR m1's.

Israel won't be able to strike Iran with either f-15i's or f-16i's without accepting some serious losses. Both of these aircraft have massive RCS's and will be detected long before they are in striking distance. Anti-radiation missile won't work either because Tor-m1 is capable of intercepting those. Plus they must face off with Mig-29's and older f-14's as well.

They also have a supercavitation torpedo called the "hoot" which is potentially a variant of the Russian Shkval. This torpedo moves way too fast(360 km/h) for any ship to out maneuver it. Basically an underwater missile.

In the works right now, Iran is or has ordered Russian SU-30MKM's a very formidable aircraft and far superior to f-15/16s. Potentially, also Chinese fighter craft as well. Their economy has not been struck by the worldwide downturn either so they will be functioning well for years to come.



In my opinion Israel want's to have complete dominance in the region, they even prevented the sale of f-15's to Saudi Arabia along with other weapons, and we had to strip them of offensive capability and had them used only for defensive purposes.

Iran will not fire missiles at Israel, and will not give material to be used as a dirty bomb because all fingers will point to him right away. One missile and his country will be obliterated.

As mentioned before Pakistan does have Nukes and plenty of radicals waiting to seize control of the Government, so I think they are a threat more than Iran.

Where did you read that sa-20s have been delivered? The Iranian Air Force and "navy" are about as capable as an 8 year old's ****, only good for taking a leak. Those f-14s haven't been in the air in ages and even if they managed to get one up, it wouldn't be up for long. They only have 25 of them for christ sakes. They would have to cannibalize 20 of them to get 5 to fly. You give Iran way too much credit. Sukhois to Iran? I would love to see that actually happen but I doubt it ever will. Guess where all the 'reports' about that sale come from? That's right, Israeli news, and I haven't seen anything about it in almost 2 years. Additionally, if it were true, our JSF allies wouldn't be getting a dumbed down version.


Let's also not forget that both Russia and Iran have denied this deal. If it were true, why would they deny it? They didn't deny the initial sa-20 agreement...

There's also very little threat of Iran selling material. Since 2002 there have been over 300 seizures of radiological material that was attempted to be sold or smuggled. I think the intelligence community is doing just fine.

 

[nopeace]

Where did you read that sa-20s have been delivered? The Iranian Air Force and "navy" are about as capable as an 8 year old's ****, only good for taking a leak. Those f-14s haven't been in the air in ages and even if they managed to get one up, it wouldn't be up for long. They only have 25 of them for christ sakes. They would have to cannibalize 20 of them to get 5 to fly. You give Iran way too much credit. Sukhois to Iran? I would love to see that actually happen but I doubt it ever will. Guess where all the 'reports' about that sale come from? That's right, Israeli news, and I haven't seen anything about it in almost 2 years. Additionally, if it were true, our JSF allies wouldn't be getting a dumbed down version.


Let's also not forget that both Russia and Iran have denied this deal. If it were true, why would they deny it? They didn't deny the initial sa-20 agreement...

There's also very little threat of Iran selling material. Since 2002 there have been over 300 seizures of radiological material that was attempted to be sold or smuggled. I think the intelligence community is doing just fine.

Their drones survey the aircraft carrier group for 25mins before detection. So I don't think they are totally incapable.

Here is like to S-300PMU-1, while some Russian officials deny it, others have actually clarified that they did sell the system. Iran would deny to keep their sites from being targeted and well Russia would deny it to avoid any BS. Some say they have the systems but they are in storage and dismantled.

Apparently Iraq tried to get some before the US invasion. Thank God it didn't or we would have a lot harder time getting in there. On the other hand we might have not even went there at all?

As for the Sukhois, Iran definelty wants them, they might sign a billion $ deal for 12 squadrons I believe. China has entered the weapons sales market as well, probably why Iran wants the J-10 too.

They have been able to reproduce parts for the f-14's indigenously so they claim. And 25 are still functioning. Supposedly they have upgraded them and the old-ass f-4 phantoms too.

That's exactly what I was saying! Our intel community is fine! We haven't got a dirty bomb yet. So why risk soldiers, equipment, debt and human lives? I feel Iran is more of a target for it''s vast oil and future competition for Halliburton's Caspian Natural Gas Pipeline with Iran's projected pipeline that will supply India/China.

So US loses monopoly over the profits of resources.



Articles:
http://www.missilethreat.com/missiledefensesystems/id.50/system_detail.asp
http://en.rian.ru/world/20081221/119041152.html
http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2008/08/iran-has-parts-of-s-300s-but-theyre.html

 

[nopeace]

YouTube - Israel Threatens To Attack Iran If U.S. Doesn't
Kinda funny

 

[Clickster]

Yay - I believe it necessary.

(not a popular opinion I know.) :cheers:

 

[nopeace]

All the Bible thumpers are getting ready for the "end times" lol

 

[RobInKuwait]

Is this really an "imminent conflict"? I don't see it happening anytime soon.

 

[MK9]

It's Israels problem.. Let them handle it. The American work force has given Israel over $84 billion since 1949.
Read more www . svsu . edu/clubs/vanguard/stories/628
MK9

 

[nopeace]

Is this really an "imminent conflict"? I don't see it happening anytime soon.

It's not really a threat at all in my opinion.

Iran wants nuclear energy as act of defiance to show that it's not gonna let itself get over ruled. Getting Nuclear warheads is also a way to show they are now a world power. They wont ever fire off any nukes, they will end up paying a harsher price.

Plus he can't nuke Israel. Common sense, Palestinians are in close proximity

 

[nopeace]

It's the same pre-invasion rhetoric that we saw with Iraq, overtime they are gonna keep pressing and pressing for Iran. Give false reports and facts, demonize the leader, and suppress the true facts.

M.A. (his name is too rediculous to type out)
-Never said "wipe Israel off the map" the true translation is "vanish from the pages of time" He was also quoting someone else.
-He does not hate Jew's as is shown in the Media. He has Jews in his nation in parliament.
-He supports a one state solution in Israel where both groups share in elections. As he has stated many times. This is why he refuses to recognize Israel as a nation.

Given that AP and Reuters were both bought by Sir Evelyn Rothschild(Zionist) in 1980s I don't think any news is reported in their favor.

 

[getbigbyjune]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXpytv61STw

Interesting point of view about how our media is smearing Ahadiajed (whatever! Spelling)

First off, this guy is retarded. The statements that Adminijab has made ARE TRUE. In news confrences he has said indefinetly that the US and Isreal are DEVIL/SATAN incarnate. He also widely states without holding anything back the holocaust was a fallacy and never happend. As far as a ground war with Iran, that will never happen. We have way way way way too much technology to waste precious american lives. This is what is going to happen. Obama, even though he did put an extension of the departure date from Iraq, the US, regardless, will be leaving Iraq. Once that happens, all hell will break loose. Iraq, will never never never ever be a stabilized country. Democracy will not work in a place where people do not want it. Same with south vietnam. We forced democracy on them and we ended up being attacked by south vietnamese terrorist groups because they didn't want us to be there in the first place. When we leave Iraq, it will be open season. Either hezbollah, or some other terrorist group, or worse Iran, will take over Iraq and all the so called progress that has been made will be destroyed. When Iran takes over Iraq it will continue to destroy the countries that stand in its way IOW, Isreal. Most of the worlds oil control will be in the hands of one of the most sinnical and tyranny crazed men in the world. I know this sounds irrational but it will happen because no one will stand in Adminijabs way. Their will never be peace in the Middle east because the Jews hate Arabs, and the Arabs hate the Jews. Its been this way since biblical times. And you laugh nopeace but its starting to add up. Obama and the world leaders already want a one world currency. Im not a bible thumper by any means, but don't discredit it whole heartedly cause some of it makes sense. But anyone that trys to make Adminijab look like a good guy has something wrong with them. That guy should never ever have acess to nuclear weapons.

 

[nopeace]

George Galloway has personally seen much of what has happened in the middle east. He notices vast differences in media. He is a member of th British parliament so he's not that "retarded".


First off, this guy is retarded. The statements that Adminijab has made ARE TRUE. In news confrences he has said indefinetly that the US and Isreal are DEVIL/SATAN incarnate.


These are some statements from interviews:

"Death to _____ statements" in Farsi it is closely translated to "down with" not death to.

Holocaust denying claim"
September 2006 with NBC Nightly News Anchor Brian Williams
Ahmadinejad clarified his remarks, saying that when he called the Holocaust a myth he was merely trying to communicate that it was not just Jews that died, but millions of people and he wants to know why it is the Palestinian people that have to pay for the Nazis' slaughter of the Jewish people.

"In the second World War, over 60 million people lost their lives. They were all human beings. Why is it that only a select group of those who were killed have become so prominent and important? Do you think that the 60 million who lost their lives were all at the result of warfare alone? There were two million that were part of the military at the time, perhaps altogether, 50 million civilians with no roles in the war — Christians, Muslims. They were all killed. The second and more important question that I raised was, if this event happened, and if it is a historical event, then we should allow everyone to research it and study it. The more research and studies are done, the clearer the issue gets. We still leave open to further studies absolute knowledge of science or math. Historical events are always subject to revisions, and reviews and studies. We're still revising our thoughts about what happened over thousands of years ago. Why is it that researchers are jailed? Why is researching this issue prohibitited? Where as we can openly question God, the prophet, concepts such as freedom and democracy? And the third question that I raised in this regard: assuming that this happened, where did it happen? Did the Palestinian people have anything to do with it? Why should the Palestinians pay for it now? Five million displaced Palestinian people is what I'm talking about. Over 60 years of living under terror. Losing the lives of thousands of dear ones. And homes that are destroyed on a daily basis over people's heads. You might argue that the Jews have the right to have a government. We're not against that. But where? At a place where their people were — several people will vote for them, and where they can govern.




He also widely states without holding anything back the holocaust was a fallacy and never happend. As far as a ground war with Iran, that will never happen.

False, look up his TIME magazine interview. He questions more the marketing of the holocaust for the Zionist cause, than it's existence.


We have way way way way too much technology to waste precious american lives. This is what is going to happen. Obama, even though he did put an extension of the departure date from Iraq, the US, regardless, will be leaving Iraq. Once that happens, all hell will break loose. Iraq, will never never never ever be a stabilized country. Democracy will not work in a place where people do not want it. Same with south vietnam. We forced democracy on them and we ended up being attacked by south vietnamese terrorist groups because they didn't want us to be there in the first place. When we leave Iraq, it will be open season.


Either hezbollah, or some other terrorist group, or worse Iran, will take over Iraq and all the so called progress that has been made will be destroyed.

Hezbollah is not a true "terrorist" organization, they are a militant group/resistance force, and more recently have been recognized as a legitimate political party for of Lebanon. Their goals are to expel all foreigners from their land. What they call "defensive jihad". In western eyes they are terrorist because they oppose the IDF and US forces inside their country. At one point US State Dept. removed them from the list of Terrorist organization and then later added back on probably by AIPAC.

They do not support targeting civilians and have condemned Al-Quaeda for 9/11.

Democracy can work in the Area, Before 1953 Iran was democratic and the CIA over through their leader.

Iran will not Invade Iraq, are you kidding me, the US will just gain another reason to strike them. Iraq will never be stable, 3 ethnic groups fighting for control with US troops in the middle, Country is better of splitting into 3 states. No Terrorist group can take over Iraq completely, they will get caught up in their own religious mess.

When Iran takes over Iraq it will continue to destroy the countries that stand in its way IOW, Isreal. Most of the worlds oil control will be in the hands of one of the most sinnical and tyranny crazed men in the world. I know this sounds irrational but it will happen because no one will stand in Adminijabs way.

M.A. has stated his policies, he is anti-zionist not anti-jew so Israel as a country for jews only must not exist anymore, that does not mean "KILL THE JEWS" there is no call for genocide. If so he would stark with the 40000 Jews in his country.


Their will never be peace in the Middle east because the Jews hate Arabs, and the Arabs hate the Jews. Its been this way since biblical times. And you laugh nopeace but its starting to add up. Obama and the world leaders already want a one world currency.

Whoa dude, I know about this NWO stuff too. Why do you think they are getting at our Constitution and particularly the 2nd Amendment. I definitely do not laugh. Just today Dept. of Homeland Security warning against "radical right wing constitutional groups". Basically people who do not like the Federal over-regulation.

I can go on for days with "illuminat/Freemason Zionist" conspiracies but I don't bring that stuff here, although I firmly believe based on current and past events that there "influences" that rule our world.

Im not a bible thumper by any means, but don't discredit it whole heartedly cause some of it makes sense. But anyone that trys to make Adminijab look like a good guy has something wrong with them. That guy should never ever have acess to nuclear weapons.

I'm not saying he is a good guy (no person in a position of power is a good guy), I'm going after our Media's bullshit smearing in order to pull us into a war by spoon feeding us misinformation and fear mongering. Something so small as misinterpreting a quote in farsi to english has led to an outcry by Israel and Fox News here, They use that statement as the primary reason for invading Iran. Humans on both sides could die because of irresponsible reporting or deliberate misinformation. The media needs to stop pushing for a war because Israel is scared to strike.

You have to consider the misguiding media-machine here inside the US. Time will tell and you will see an increase in reporting of crimes. A.M. is being labeled a nutcase but yet has been invited to speak at American Universities. It's our media that makes him a genocidal-tyranical mad man in order to better serve support for the war from the public. Same was said about Hussein. And in the 80's we were in business with him while he was being "tyranical" our Gov. doesn't care about the "tyranical" part if you ask me.


Do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Don't buy US media misinformation. Israel wants complete domination of the region.

 

[nopeace]

CIA is currently in Iran anyways supporting an uprising of PPK. So nukes or not, we are already engaged.

 

[getbigbyjune]

I'm not saying he is a good guy (no person in a position of power is a good guy), I'm going after our Media's bullshit smearing in order to pull us into a war by spoon feeding us misinformation and fear mongering. Something so small as misinterpreting a quote in farsi to english has led to an outcry by Israel and Fox News here, They use that statement as the primary reason for invading Iran. Humans on both sides could die because of irresponsible reporting or deliberate misinformation. The media needs to stop pushing for a war because Israel is scared to strike.

You have to consider the misguiding media-machine here inside the US. Time will tell and you will see an increase in reporting of crimes. A.M. is being labeled a nutcase but yet has been invited to speak at American Universities. It's our media that makes him a genocidal-tyranical mad man in order to better serve support for the war from the public. Same was said about Hussein. And in the 80's we were in business with him while he was being "tyranical" our Gov. doesn't care about the "tyranical" part if you ask me.


Do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Don't buy US media misinformation. Israel wants complete domination of the region.

Wow tushee no peace. I think thats how u spell it. Anyway. I still don't beleive adminijab when he restated his statement of
(Ahmadinejad clarified his remarks, saying that when he called the Holocaust a myth he was merely trying to communicate that it was not just Jews that died, but millions of people and he wants to know why it is the Palestinian people that have to pay for the Nazis' slaughter of the Jewish people.) I don't beleive this for one second and thats just my opinion. Death to the us or hating the us regardless, we aren't on his best friend list lol. Hezbollah is,if you will, a good terrorist organiztation lol. I was just saying that they don't want the west anywhere near them. Your right Iraq should be split up because they can never ever agree on anything. But im at least glad that that sob isn't in the range of the US. Because if he was we would be royally screwed. This is a good debate but sadly, the middle east will never become civilized because of its religion. I mean, a civilization that forces women to cover up their faces and doesn't allow them to leave the house without the husbands permission has serious problems.

 

[nopeace]

getbigbyjune,

No doubt about that, Islam is a religion in the stone ages. If the people in the Middle East don't realize that they are following antiquated beliefs, they are gonne be riding camels forever while we get our hover cars started in the future hopefully. I am opposed greatly to religion's involvement in politics, especially with Christianity. Not all muslims country have those kind of restrictions. Some have some beautiful women too I might add. They should open their eyes about human/rights and justice. I studied Criminology and different justice systems around the world. Basically with an Islamic rule of law, you break it you're done. Hardly any trial or anything.


When you get people in charge saying "Iraq war is a task from God" it's like slapping God in the face. The NeoCons *******s are abusing our Servicement (respect always) and the other people. You have politicians getting churches to endorse them, and now even some Evangelicals have books such as "Should Christians Support A Cease Fire". As Christians (I'm Catholic) we should always denounce war.

Well A.M. will always be demonized in the media. Since he can not speak English, his speeches and statements will always get mis-construed either accidentally or deliberately.

You can figure it like this if Iran gets a nuke:
Iran= 1 warhead
Israel= 200+ submarine based SCMB's
U.S. = 10,000 land based sub based missiles.

So, they will definitely lose.

 

[getbigbyjune]

getbigbyjune,

No doubt about that, Islam is a religion in the stone ages. If the people in the Middle East don't realize that they are following antiquated beliefs, they are gonne be riding camels forever while we get our hover cars started in the future hopefully. I am opposed greatly to religion's involvement in politics, especially with Christianity. Not all muslims country have those kind of restrictions. Some have some beautiful women too I might add. They should open their eyes about human/rights and justice. I studied Criminology and different justice systems around the world. Basically with an Islamic rule of law, you break it you're done. Hardly any trial or anything.


When you get people in charge saying "Iraq war is a task from God" it's like slapping God in the face. The NeoCons *******s are abusing our Servicement (respect always) and the other people. You have politicians getting churches to endorse them, and now even some Evangelicals have books such as "Should Christians Support A Cease Fire". As Christians (I'm Catholic) we should always denounce war.

Well A.M. will always be demonized in the media. Since he can not speak English, his speeches and statements will always get mis-construed either accidentally or deliberately.

You can figure it like this if Iran gets a nuke:
Iran= 1 warhead
Israel= 200+ submarine based SCMB's
U.S. = 10,000 land based sub based missiles.

So, they will definitely lose.

ahhaahahaa for sure man. Yah saying the iraq war is an act of God is definitely retarded.lol im just glad an ocean seperates me from all that crap lol.

 

[nopeace]

Yup me too.

Does anyone have any possible alteratior motives that could be the motivation for this war?

 

[RobInKuwait]

Yup me too.

Does anyone have any possible alteratior motives that could be the motivation for this war?

Dude.....there is no war yet.....

If you're talking a motive for Israel, its obviously self preservation. One nuke set off in Israel could take out 25-50% of their population.

 

[nopeace]

Dude.....there is no war yet.....

If you're talking a motive for Israel, its obviously self preservation. One nuke set off in Israel could take out 25-50% of their population.

One source claims that Iran was going to accept any currency for their oil and this is what pissed off bush. Euros, Rubles etc.

This removes the dollars monopoly, makes sense.

 

[RobInKuwait]

One source claims that Iran was going to accept any currency for their oil and this is what pissed off bush. Euros, Rubles etc.

This removes the dollars monopoly, makes sense.

The "dollar monopoly" has been in place since the Bretton Woods agreements in 1944 which established it as the international reserve currency. Honestly, if Iran is going to accept Rubles for their oil, its more of a risk to them than it is to us. I'm no fan of US monetary policy, but it looks better than any other major currency right now, including the Euro and the Yen. The only ones I'd like better than the dollar are Australian Dollars and Swiss Francs, but I'd doubt there's enough of those currencies circulating to deal in the quantities Iran is looking at dealing in.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

...

You know you're a terrorist?

 

[RobInKuwait]

You know you're a terrorist?

I saw the memo. Apparently, I'm also anti-government and anti-CNN. :usa1:

 

[getbigbyjune]

lol oy the pound is good too lol.

 

[nopeace]

The "dollar monopoly" has been in place since the Bretton Woods agreements in 1944 which established it as the international reserve currency. Honestly, if Iran is going to accept Rubles for their oil, its more of a risk to them than it is to us. I'm no fan of US monetary policy, but it looks better than any other major currency right now, including the Euro and the Yen. The only ones I'd like better than the dollar are Australian Dollars and Swiss Francs, but I'd doubt there's enough of those currencies circulating to deal in the quantities Iran is looking at dealing in.

well, if they accept any currency, other nations will not have to switch their currencies and this would drastically weaken the dollar. The greater fear is that other nations will follow in their footsteps.

 

[nopeace]

lol oy the pound is good too lol.

The pound has been strong for a while now.

 

[RobInKuwait]

The pound has been strong for a while now.

Um......the pound sterling was down in value 25% last year. Its up a couple of percent this year, but I wouldn't call it a strong currency by any stretch.

 

[RobInKuwait]

well, if they accept any currency, other nations will not have to switch their currencies and this would drastically weaken the dollar. The greater fear is that other nations will follow in their footsteps.

You're putting the caboose before the train. Nations and businesses don't care about devaluing the dollar, they care about maximizing their capital. It is essentially up to the seller to decide in what form they accept their payments. As of right now, there are three currencies that have major worldwide market acceptance: the US dollar, the Euro, and the Japanese Yen (in that order). Out of these three, the dollar is the world's reserve currency and by far the most widely accepted and sought after, hence that is the currency most oil and commodities producers seek first. In order to "dethrone" the dollar, there has to be a more desirable alternative.

I'm by no means a dollar "bull", but until something better comes along or the dollar is devalued to the point it loses its viability, the dollar will be the reserve currency of world trade.

 

[nopeace]

True RobInKuwait.

 

[CDB]

You're putting the caboose before the train. Nations and businesses don't care about devaluing the dollar, they care about maximizing their capital. It is essentially up to the seller to decide in what form they accept their payments. As of right now, there are three currencies that have major worldwide market acceptance: the US dollar, the Euro, and the Japanese Yen (in that order). Out of these three, the dollar is the world's reserve currency and by far the most widely accepted and sought after, hence that is the currency most oil and commodities producers seek first. In order to "dethrone" the dollar, there has to be a more desirable alternative.

I think you undervalue the diplomatic relationships that have set the dollar up as the world reserve and kept pricing mostly in dollars. The devaluation of the dollar you refer to coudl be the result of sellers and buyers using other currencies, even in miniscule amounts. By agreeing to price oil in dollars this essentially forces countries to keep dollar reserves in order to avoid conversion fees to aquire oil. Sellers don't have to refuse dollars, they just have to start accepting other currencies to start the ball rolling on a dollar sell off. Right now the Saudis have a big hand in this. People buy oil in dollars, they deposit those dollars in banks that make the kind of loans that get paid off when **** rolls up hill. In other words they enable our monetary inflation by keeping dollars from rolling back our way. But it's little more than a mutually beneficial gentleman's agreement that keeps this going, and there's a lot more involved in which currency it would be desirable to accept payments in than the mere relative strengths of the various currencies.

 

[RobInKuwait]

I think you undervalue the diplomatic relationships that have set the dollar up as the world reserve and kept pricing mostly in dollars. The devaluation of the dollar you refer to coudl be the result of sellers and buyers using other currencies, even in miniscule amounts. By agreeing to price oil in dollars this essentially forces countries to keep dollar reserves in order to avoid conversion fees to aquire oil. Sellers don't have to refuse dollars, they just have to start accepting other currencies to start the ball rolling on a dollar sell off. Right now the Saudis have a big hand in this. People buy oil in dollars, they deposit those dollars in banks that make the kind of loans that get paid off when **** rolls up hill. In other words they enable our monetary inflation by keeping dollars from rolling back our way. But it's little more than a mutually beneficial gentleman's agreement that keeps this going, and there's a lot more involved in which currency it would be desirable to accept payments in than the mere relative strengths of the various currencies.

The dollar hasn't devalued in the last 6 months, its actually strengthened. Its not about diplomatic relations, its about which currency the seller feels will maximize their capital. The dollar is the lesser of all evils now. Like I said previously, the dollar will stay dominant until there is something safer/better.

However, I am banking (literally) on the dollars slow demise due to the obnoxious US debt. I think over the next 5 years, the dollar will slowly lose its dominant role. However, what will take its place is beyond me. Maybe the Chinese will float the Yuan and back it up with all the commodities they're buying.

 

[CDB]

The dollar hasn't devalued in the last 6 months, its actually strengthened.

Because excess has still be sterilized or gone into currency. The monetary base has gone through the roof. Relatively speaking our currency's current strength isn't on the most solid ground right now. There's a shitload of money that's already been created ready to pour into the system.

Its not about diplomatic relations, its about which currency the seller feels will maximize their capital. The dollar is the lesser of all evils now. Like I said previously, the dollar will stay dominant until there is something safer/better.

And that's correct. I'm just saying I think you're underestimating how tenuous the dollar's position is in that game.

 

[RobInKuwait]

Because excess has still be sterilized or gone into currency. The monetary base has gone through the roof. Relatively speaking our currency's current strength isn't on the most solid ground right now. There's a shitload of money that's already been created ready to pour into the system.

I agree. However, there are two sides to the currency strength supply and demand equation. First is the one you mentioned, the supply, which has in fact grown at unprecedented levels. The other side of the coin is the safe haven play. When there is a global financial meltdown, worldwide, the big money is looking for the safest possible place to put their money. The dollar, right or wrong was seen as the safest place over the last six months, which increased demand significantly and thus the value of the dollar went up.

I envision two things happening, as the financial situation clears up and the additional dollars infiltrate the market, the safe haven play will dry up and inflation will take hold, and the dollar and treasuries will take a significant hit.

And that's correct. I'm just saying I think you're underestimating how tenuous the dollar's position is in that game.

I think we're completely on the same page on this. I actually have been looking to buy some Jan 2011 puts today on a 20 year treasury bond fund and finally pulled the trigger. I'm expecting treasuries to take a big hit and the dollar to follow suit over the next couple of years.

CDB, what do you think will take the place of the dollar near term and long term?

 

[CDB]

CDB, what do you think will take the place of the dollar near term and long term?

Something from Asia. Technically the real safe haven is the currency that's the least manipulated and has the most backing, but in actuality my guess is people will jump to currencies that can be further inflated on top of a productive workforce for a time as the dollar finally pops and does fart circles around the money market. Asia, with oil rich county currencies as a second option. A far third, and if this happens we're really screwed, is the Amero; everyone meets and devises a world wide currency to universally screw everyone with at the same rate. It's a far third in my opinion because people are still too nationalistic to accept it, and they'd have to sprinkle some gold dust on it a la BrettonWoods II, but that would mean having to take a substantial portion of our medicine first which no central bank wants to do.

So, there will be a lot of noise about the dollar being king but not much action, foreign reserves will diversify to hold fewer and fewer greens and probably more yen and yuan and hard commodities especially. Oil, gold, etc. Maybe a few wars will be fought to make sure US production doesn't fall through the floor and our citizens have something fun to do with their time while our economy implodes and reorganizes itself from the rubble. And then, if we're lucky, something of a manufacturing base will have been rebuilt under our noses while we were off bombing some marginally significant country, so we can make a nice smooth transition from war time production to making rubber dog **** or something, a la the shift that happened in 45-46 after WWII. The only reason we didn't collapse then is because a significant portion of the workforce got killed - a creative way of dealing with unemployment - and our manufacturing ability was rebuilt despite, not because of, the war and all the government 'help'. We can only hope this time that a similar recovery is under way and waiting to take off once the government spending ends.

 

[RobInKuwait]

Something from Asia. Technically the real safe haven is the currency that's the least manipulated and has the most backing, but in actuality my guess is people will jump to currencies that can be further inflated on top of a productive workforce for a time as the dollar finally pops and does fart circles around the money market. Asia, with oil rich county currencies as a second option. A far third, and if this happens we're really screwed, is the Amero; everyone meets and devises a world wide currency to universally screw everyone with at the same rate. It's a far third in my opinion because people are still too nationalistic to accept it, and they'd have to sprinkle some gold dust on it a la BrettonWoods II, but that would mean having to take a substantial portion of our medicine first which no central bank wants to do.

So, there will be a lot of noise about the dollar being king but not much action, foreign reserves will diversify to hold fewer and fewer greens and probably more yen and yuan and hard commodities especially. Oil, gold, etc. Maybe a few wars will be fought to make sure US production doesn't fall through the floor and our citizens have something fun to do with their time while our economy implodes and reorganizes itself from the rubble. And then, if we're lucky, something of a manufacturing base will have been rebuilt under our noses while we were off bombing some marginally significant country, so we can make a nice smooth transition from war time production to making rubber dog **** or something, a la the shift that happened in 45-46 after WWII. The only reason we didn't collapse then is because a significant portion of the workforce got killed - a creative way of dealing with unemployment - and our manufacturing ability was rebuilt despite, not because of, the war and all the government 'help'. We can only hope this time that a similar recovery is under way and waiting to take off once the government spending ends.

Interesting theory. I could definitely see much of this playing out over the next 10-15 years. I think China is positioning the Yuan to be the currency of choice in the future.

I disagree in your WWII/Great Depression explanation. I agree with Amity Schlaes' explanation that attributed the post WWII boom to the 1930s era over-regulation of private enterprise freeing up underutilized private capital.

As for your unemployment theory from WWII, it seems to me that if you wanted to boost an economy through death, you'd kill off your old people, not the people with the greatest future economic output.

 

[CDB]

Interesting theory. I could definitely see much of this playing out over the next 10-15 years. I think China is positioning the Yuan to be the currency of choice in the future.

I disagree in your WWII/Great Depression explanation. I agree with Amity Schlaes' explanation that attributed the post WWII boom to the 1930s era over-regulation of private enterprise freeing up underutilized private capital.

Where can I read more, which book, Forgotten Man? I've avoided it. I love Greedy Hand but Forgotten Man seemed a rehash of stuff I've already read from Higgs and Rothbard on the policies of Hoover/FDR, and the misleading nature of WWII GDP stats. I honestly don't get the idea of over regulation freeing up capital.

As for your unemployment theory from WWII, it seems to me that if you wanted to boost an economy through death, you'd kill off your old people, not the people with the greatest future economic output.

True. I'm not saying it was intentionally the way they figured to deal with unemployment. It was just interesting in a sarcastic way that unemployment hovered around 18% for years as FDR was supposedly saving us from the Great Depression, then we commit fully one fifth of our workforce to the army, unemployment goes down, and FDR gets praise. More a comment on ow easily fooled most people are.

But make no mistake, economic woes and war are tied together like **** and stink. In the past it was about conquest. Kings would party until resources started to dry up, conquer some more land, get some ore gold and title and what not, and keep the party going. In our day and age its monetary policy first, military second. The spending is necessary to keep the money flowing and the inevitable collapse just out of sight. So, when all else fails, direct capital and production efforts into war making.

 

[Zero V]

We should only mess Iran if we can drop the Panzy BS, drop nukes, and carpet bomb the place flat. Then trash through with the Marines and Army and execute any officials or military persons still ticking....as for the other deaths. Its a term called "acceptable losses" or, for the greater good....

a war is a friggin war, dont rage one unless its ok to kill people.

 

[RobInKuwait]

Where can I read more, which book, Forgotten Man? I've avoided it. I love Greedy Hand but Forgotten Man seemed a rehash of stuff I've already read from Higgs and Rothbard on the policies of Hoover/FDR, and the misleading nature of WWII GDP stats. I honestly don't get the idea of over regulation freeing up capital.

Yeah, the Forgotten Man. I'll see if my library has Greedy Hand. I haven't read Rothbard and Higgs, but I'm open to all recommendations you have on good books to check out.

I miswrote the part apart over-regulation freeing up capital. When business was essentially deregulated between 1938 until post WWII (deregulated in the sense that some of the iron fist price control / wage control policies of 1930s were abandoned) there was a flood of capital that was previously tied up in Muni bonds and other tax avoidance instruments came back into business.

True. I'm not saying it was intentionally the way they figured to deal with unemployment. It was just interesting in a sarcastic way that unemployment hovered around 18% for years as FDR was supposedly saving us from the Great Depression, then we commit fully one fifth of our workforce to the army, unemployment goes down, and FDR gets praise. More a comment on ow easily fooled most people are.

I agree, FDR was more of a PR campaign than any actual results.

But make no mistake, economic woes and war are tied together like **** and stink. In the past it was about conquest. Kings would party until resources started to dry up, conquer some more land, get some ore gold and title and what not, and keep the party going. In our day and age its monetary policy first, military second. The spending is necessary to keep the money flowing and the inevitable collapse just out of sight. So, when all else fails, direct capital and production efforts into war making.

If this is true, I guess we can expect a major war in the next 5-20 years. Have you read any books that talk about the second part of what you said....monetary policy and war.....I'm curious about the whole concept.

 

[CDB]

Yeah, the Forgotten Man. I'll see if my library has Greedy Hand. I haven't read Rothbard and Higgs, but I'm open to all recommendations you have on good books to check out.

Rothbard: America's Great Depression
Higgs: Depression, War, and Cold War
Higgsl Crisis and Leviathan

The first two I consider must reads. Eye opening at the least.

I miswrote the part apart over-regulation freeing up capital. When business was essentially deregulated between 1938 until post WWII (deregulated in the sense that some of the iron fist price control / wage control policies of 1930s were abandoned) there was a flood of capital that was previously tied up in Muni bonds and other tax avoidance instruments came back into business.

I see, she's saying the relaxation of the war time restrictions finally allowed capital to flow. I agree.

I agree, FDR was more of a PR campaign than any actual results.

A good one too. Look how many people still believe he and the war 'got us out of the depression'. I mean, the ****ing thing lasted ten years and people think he 'helped' the situation. Still amazes me to this day.

If this is true, I guess we can expect a major war in the next 5-20 years. Have you read any books that talk about the second part of what you said....monetary policy and war.....I'm curious about the whole concept.

The Higgs books go into a bit, as does Rothbard in Wall Street, Banks, and American Foreign Policy. Basically it's monetary imperialism, or the defecit without tears. You get a dominant currency, inflate it, send it abroad, and other nations pyramid their currency and credit on top of it. In this way you get to inflate a hell of a lot without a strain on home reserves; no gold or dollars flowing out in other words because liabilities are never returned.

That ties in historically with war. Here it's good to read a little Hoppe in Democracy, the God that Failed. Historically war was waged for specific ends; territory, title, riches. Once aquired the war stopped and most importantly war time debt was paid down. War contrary to what most say is not an engine of economic growth but rather a destroyer of growth. It can't go on for very long without taxing the populace in the extreme, unless you can devise a system that essentialy lets you to "give without taking, to lend without borrowing and to acquire without paying," as Jacques Rueff put it about the gold exchange standard.

Fiat money is tied inexorably to welfare and warfare. Neither can persist for very long unless debt can be monetized.

 

[RobInKuwait]

I see, she's saying the relaxation of the war time restrictions finally allowed capital to flow. I agree.

Not even just war time restrictions. Many corporations and rich people put obscene amounts of capital in Municipal Bonds and other tax safe havens in the 1930s due to over-regulation and obscenely high taxes. This had the effect of holding down capital growth even before the War. FDR began loosing up these regulation when war stated and he actually had a vested interest in production in supplying his allies in Europe. He never had any real incentive to promote economic recovery prior to that, he just had the incentive to promote the idea that economic recovery was happening.

 

[nopeace]

If we nuke Iran we won't be able to roam around there cause of the Fallout right?