Can someone help me with the math?
- 03-06-2009, 12:13 PM
Can someone help me with the math?
Obama noted the many critics of the package, but he said government leaders have a responsibility to act for future generations. The United States has met every challenge with bold action and big ideas, he said, and "that's what fueled a shared and lasting prosperity."
787 billion dollars to "create or save" lets go optimistically 3.5 million jobs. Thats a cost of $225,000 to create or save each one of those jobs..... i'm still thinking we could have done a 300 billion lottery drawing out of all the people who have filed taxes at any time in the last 5 years, and give each "winner" $50,000. That would have given 6,000,000 people a significant change in cashflow, allowing them to start new businesses, buy new homes, etc.
- 03-14-2009, 12:40 AM
I think the "... to act for future generations." means to make sure they feel the pain we are in right now by keeping the country in debt until they can run it.
03-14-2009, 12:49 AM
i liked jon stewarts "trickle up" economics. give everyone 10-15k to pay off dept, and the banks will get their money that way. there's no other way to make it fair to everyone who did buy houses in their price range etc.
i suck at economics though.
03-14-2009, 08:13 AM
03-14-2009, 08:17 AM
03-14-2009, 08:29 AM
Its interesting (so long as it doesn't turn into one of those illuminati theory movies). I'm going to have to grab the whole movie.
This one is too, but more for the conspiracy nuts like ubicya and neoborn
YouTube - The Obama Deception Part 1/12
03-14-2009, 08:30 AM
03-14-2009, 08:35 AM
yeah, just from that intro clip is enough to tell me i likely agree with most of the concepts. What happens when you over time spend more than you take in? eventually servicing the debt becomes untenable. Thats why china yesterday kinda gave that heavy hand of "you better not let inflation run wild and mess up our investments here in the USA" as honestly that was the best overall idea to fix the current situation - spike inflation to 6-8% year over year for the next 5-6 years. I kind of thought that was what Obama meant when he said he'd take the deficit down to 600 billion a year, just that he'd keep it at 1.7 trillion in 2012 dollars, but it would only be worth 600 billion in 2009 dollars
03-14-2009, 07:37 PM
03-14-2009, 07:40 PM
I dont know how the debt is structure to be able to say what they can do about it
in the end, what can they do? stop shipping us underpriced crap? start charging us more for that crap? Unless the debt was created with some sort of guarantee of maximum inflation rates, I can't see what they could do. That is the major assumed risk with that type of security, that inflation will outpace the return. Its not like there was a large risk of the US government declaring bankruptcy
03-14-2009, 07:45 PM
Edit: Clarification, I was refering to the I.O.U.S.A. movie where the economic pressure is mentioned.
Last edited by Steveoph; 03-14-2009 at 09:38 PM. Reason: Clarification
03-14-2009, 08:00 PM
See the funny thing is that all I could see china trying to dump the debt doing is increase the inflation / devalue US dollars, which all in all would not be the worst thing that ever happened. If we saw a 100% inflation this year, guess what would happen to the values of all those homes that today are "worth less than the person owes" ? so long as wages dont remain stagnant, it works.
03-14-2009, 09:37 PM
I think that the inflation would be to high for basically anything, and I don't think peoples wages would stay the same. Similar to the Weimar republic, but it could be worse. Like 1 million $ for some lunch, if that amount of dollars is put in the market. But I really don't know too much about the topic, just a tad of info.
03-14-2009, 09:45 PM
yeah, well, 100% is crazy yes. but 6-8% a year, year after year for 3-4 years woudl probably be enough
So a 300k house today would be worth 400k, the housing market would have fixed itself
03-14-2009, 10:09 PM
03-14-2009, 10:12 PM
sure, but a 7% inflation rate is still within manageable rates as far as raises so pay keeps up goes. The trick is that it devalues existing loans, making them easier to pay. a $1800 a month mortgage doesn't change as inflation goes up, but earnings do (generally)
Its probably the only thing that would really work for us right now, but no federal person can say it without getting huge flack.
here is a chart since 1990
historical inflation rates before this time were higher, as high as over 10% in the 70s.
03-17-2009, 12:26 AM
I was thinking the same thing Easy, about how inflation could ease the housing market, ease consumer debt, and ease government debt all at the same time. JDG however brings up a good point about China. If they dump our debt, the dollar will self destruct and the current economic situation will be like candy.
IMHO inflation and deflation are not as complicated as they're made out to be. Want to inflate the currency? Encourage lending through lower rates and print more money. Want to rein it in? Print less money and raise rates. Its that simple. The price of real goods doesn't change, its the value of the money.
03-17-2009, 06:23 AM
So we just need to find something else china wants, negotiate in private them accepting that in exchange for not whining about our inflation hitting 8-10%, and no other single debt holder has that much power over us
that I O U S A movie covers this partially too.
03-17-2009, 09:01 PM
If there is 6-8 percent inflation, they would need to get that rate of return to break even on their money. Otherwise they'd be losing approximately 10 billion dollars a year in real money. Honestly, I think they just dump the currency if our inflation rates get that high.
The best way to try to dupe the Chinese is by Consumer Price Index. Just lie about the numbers. That is the only solution I can think of, and even that may be seen through as hard commodities go up in price against the dollar.
03-18-2009, 11:17 AM
Our gov't lies about the CPI all of the time, they constantly change up products or just use lower prices for the goods to base the CPI all of the time. What I really think needs to happen to save the dollar is to just switch to a gold/silver standard. That would keep inflation/deflation at bay. Thats just what I think, I don't really have to much else. But I know that places where they have a non-fiat currency also do not have to worry about inflation and the such.
03-18-2009, 11:54 AM
03-18-2009, 11:57 AM
03-18-2009, 01:01 PM
03-18-2009, 04:33 PM
Check out the inflation the fed put out today. My gold mining stock jumped 12.5% in a little over an hour after hearing this.
The fed buying 300 billion in treasuries is the same as just printing more money. Buy gold and oil. Banks are starting to look good too.
03-18-2009, 04:51 PM
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