Physically, when we're talking superior strength, power, movement, energy system..... Lesnar is certainly superior to Carwin. That's something I'm 100% confident about, but physical superiority at super HW is no defense against a solid punch. Obviously I favor Lesnar, but it's not just subjective fanaticism, but from an objective point of view, Lesnar is the superior physical specimen and not only in a strict physicality sense, but theoretically, in a technical (wrestling) sense as well. However, I also recognize Carwin can drop him at any moment IIIIFFFF he connects (and vice versa, but to an arguably lesser extent). I don't think Lesnar is invincible and even if he does get beat, it doesn't negate the facts surrounding his VERY rare combination of size & athleticism.
I think Carwin has suffered both extremes of under-hype and over-hype. He's been mostly under hyped (though not necessarily underrated), up until his performance against Mir, where, I think too many people looked at that fight as a measure of how Carwin would perform against other HW's (Lesnar to be specific.) When in truth, though Mir and Lesnar are both HW's, they are also completely different monsters. I'd almost liken it to Bret Rogers performance against Fedor vs Bret Rogers performance against Overeem. Rogers received a ton of praise and hype for lasting against Fedor and doing legitimate damage, so the thinking was, if Bret Rogers can last against Fedor, he will also perform well or even man handle Overeem with KO power and we all saw how Overeem tickled Rogers' booty hole.
I think a lot of the same applications are being made here for Carwin's performance against Mir, being overly used as a measure of his potential against Lesnar. Provided that may be a predictor sometimes, but fighters usually move on to opponents with varying technical ability, not a completely different beast of an opponent altogether, which is what moving from Mir to Lesnar is like.
I certainly believe anything can happen, especially after this Strike Force weekend. I don't rule anything out, I'm hoping for a Lesnar victory, but I've said this time and again, the top brutes of the UFC HW division can all knock each other out with a good opportunity and a square punch, so even all of Brock's advantages won't deter that fact, imho.