So...About this whole OhioSt/USC Fiesta Bowl...Congrats to UCLA - Huge Upset!

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    So...About this whole OhioSt/USC Fiesta Bowl...Congrats to UCLA - Huge Upset!


    UCLA avenging (sorta) their loss in 1998 to UM when they were #2.

    This was a HUGE upset - one of the biggest in my mind.


    So - who will OSU* play in the Fiesta now? I think Michigan.


    Also - the comparison of SC 2006 to Miami 2003 is pretty close in my mind. Both teams were in the hunt for a title game berth - but lost late on the road to a big ***** (Miami to VaTech - I was at that game).
    I'm not saying SC will now suck (as UM did starting in '04) - just that the similarities are pretty close to me.

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    Miami and SC had a pretty similar 3 year run - check it out:

    Miami

    2001 MNC win

    2002 MNC loss

    2003 loss in last conference game with QB from evangel christian (10-2) - beat FSU in the Orange Bowl.


    USC

    2004 MNC Win

    2005 MNC Loss

    2006 Loss in last game with QB from evangel christian (10-2) - playing in the Rose, against LSU???



    Miami got screwed in 2000 out of an MNC birth against OU - and SC of course ended up getting an AP title in 2003 because OU's SOS was better (not sure that is all that similar - but contraversy both of those years nonetheless).
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    Jmh80, "Note - I don't think the SEC is best this year. I think they are about as good as the Big 10 and Pac 10."

    BWWAAAHHAAAA!!! Oh my goodness. Congrats to UCLA, great game. USC was not that good, they smoked ND but couldn't keep it up. The Pac 10 does not compare to the SEC or Big 10. IF Rutgers wins tonight, pretty big if, I'd say the Big east is better. I'll be honest, as painful as it was, I was kinda pulling for USC. LSU and Michigan in the Rose would be awesome. If Florida can win convincingly, maybe they play Ohio st. God I love College Football! I don't wanna see Ohio st. v Michigan again, even though I was pulling for them. *Mcfadden to Jones OHHH!!* This is great. I'm pulling for Arkansas just for thge record. 2 talking points. The hit on the UCLA QB, vicious and beautiful. The interception to end, saw great.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmh80
    Miami and SC had a pretty similar 3 year run - check it out:

    Miami

    2001 MNC win

    2002 MNC loss

    2003 loss in last conference game with QB from evangel christian (10-2) - beat FSU in the Orange Bowl.


    USC

    2004 MNC Win

    2005 MNC Loss

    2006 Loss in last game with QB from evangel christian (10-2) - playing in the Rose, against LSU???



    Miami got screwed in 2000 out of an MNC birth against OU - and SC of course ended up getting an AP title in 2003 because OU's SOS was better (not sure that is all that similar - but contraversy both of those years nonetheless).
    Evangel QB note is cool, besides that yea, Miami and USC are just a like Evangel is headed to the State Championship again, 1A now.
    LSU v USC would be a great match up. 2 awesome defenses.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cool
    Jmh80, "Note - I don't think the SEC is best this year. I think they are about as good as the Big 10 and Pac 10."

    BWWAAAHHAAAA!!! Oh my goodness. Congrats to UCLA, great game. USC was not that good, they smoked ND but couldn't keep it up. The Pac 10 does not compare to the SEC or Big 10. IF Rutgers wins tonight, pretty big if, I'd say the Big east is better. I'll be honest, as painful as it was, I was kinda pulling for USC. LSU and Michigan in the Rose would be awesome. If Florida can win convincingly, maybe they play Ohio st. God I love College Football! I don't wanna see Ohio st. v Michigan again, even though I was pulling for them. *Mcfadden to Jones OHHH!!* This is great. I'm pulling for Arkansas just for thge record. 2 talking points. The hit on the UCLA QB, vicious and beautiful. The interception to end, saw great.
    SC is now slotted for the Rose.
    If Arky wins - I think LSU will be picked ahead of UF for a BCS bowl.
    That means Michigan slides up to #2 for a rematch and your beloved Tigers are slotted to play SC if the bowl people have any f*cking sense.

    Then - I can listen to more LSU fans wax irrationally about SC for a month.
    (Not that you, Cool, are an irrational LSU fan re: USC - but I've NEVER met one of you people that isn't - and I work in south La with a TON of Tiger fans.)

    About my quote - if Arky wins against UF - I don't think that really makes the SEC look all that much better - maybe now slightly better than the Pac 10.
    Don't let your blind SC hatred get in the way of analysis of the Pac 10.
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    Cool,
    I didn't "say" SC and UM are the same.
    I said the 3 year stretch for both teams is pretty eerie.
    Carroll isn't Coker (he is a players coach though - and I'll continue to think that all the antics - White throwing a doll of himself off a building during practices for last year's Rose bowl, etc - hurts the team's focus. They weren't focused on UCLA tonight.)


    Rogue,
    The Hogs just picked one off for a TD to go up 4 points.
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    That seemed to be what Brad Edwards from ESPN said - that Michigan would go to the Fiesta if SC lost (so the SEC champ would be slotted to the Sugar, as always).

    Either way - LSU is going to a BCS bowl, just not sure where (Rose or Orange IMO).

    I hope ND doesn't make a BCS game - but they will probably end up in the 1st Fiesta game against Boise State (I think everyone forgets that game).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    The winner of Fl_AK is going to the Sugar for sure. If FL loses, LSU is likely to become the higher ranked BCS team, and much more attractive to the Rose Bowl than Notre Dame. We'll know tommorow.
    Not for sure. Florida's schedule is better than Meeechigan's. I want to see Ohio st. vs. UF. They deserve it even if I wasn't a slave to the SEC.
    Jmh, Frank Gore is the man, my wife and I are big fans. When SF gets Vernon Davis back and A.Smith firing, watch out.
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    I am from ohio and am a OSU fan.

    Now that that is out of the way. The problem i see with Michigan playing OSU in the Championship is this:
    OSU is #1 and they beat Michigan.

    If Michigan goes to the championship,
    1. We don't want to take the chance of losing to them.
    2. If Michigan wins, who will truly be the champion? There would have to be a third game to truly decide winner. Because each team would have beaten the other. It is a dilemma that i don't think they want to go through.

    It is a classic example of why the point system doesn't work in college ball. They can have a playoff brackets in college basketball. Why not do it in College Football?
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    I agree with playoffs......... FLORIDA VS. OHIO STATE without a doubt just look at florida's schedule compared to michigans its easy to see who should play ohio state, I mean come on michigan almost lost to Ball State from the Mac, only beat them by 8. I think Ball state was almost last in the Mac too. Too simple to realize who's going, plus we've already seen who would win out of Ohio State/ Michigan. Michigan got their shot ... they lost.
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    As a UF fan I cant complain about a rematch if OSU and Mich play again. We all remember in 1996 when FSU beat UF in the regular season then UF beat them for the natl championship.

    However I think UF deserves to play b/c they have many more quality wins than Mich...go uf!!!
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    But how can anyone say they are national champions when Michigan lost to OSU then turns around and beats them? OSU would only have 1 loss and would have proven themselves, that they can beat Michigan earlier.

    IT IS NOT RIGHT! I, of course, am playing devil's advocate because i don't think OSU will lose. But i will play along.
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    This is crazy stuff. I was just prepping myself for that final OSU/USC. I don't care who the Buckeyes play at this point, I'm just glad they're in the title game.

    OSU owns Arizona, by the way. Hell, Pheonix is throbbing of ex-Ohioans. 3 Fiesta Bowl wins in 4 years, and I'm looking forward to 4 in 5.

    Has there been any talk of a Wisconsin/USC Rose Bowl? Maybe it's the traditionalist in me, and I know Wisconsin is already set for the Capital One, but I'm all about a Big10 Pac 10 Rose Bowl. I'm just a little confused with the LSU talk.
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    RD,
    Here are the past week's rankings ESPN.com - NCF - BCS Standings

    So - here's what we have:
    Wake to the Orange against presumably the Big East Champ (the traditional tie-in's I think).
    OU to the 1st Fiesta to play Boise (who has to be picked - and the Big 12 is tied in to the Fiesta).
    SC goes to the Rose. The Rose loses the Big10 champ - OSU* - so they get a compensatory pick, I think the first one.

    From here - it's all speculation - but I see that LSU and L'ville will move up one slot (likely) and end up in the top 6 - which guarantees them bids.
    If Michigan is left out of the championship - they'll pick Michigan to match up against SC. If Mich goes to the Champ - then they'll pick LSU for the better match-up with SC.

    Fla would normally be tied to the Sugar. So - if they get picked, then the Sugar gets a compensatory pick. I'm guessing they'll take Louisville - they can't take Wisky for the reason you mention above.
    If Fla plays OSU* - then it'll be L'ville and LSU IMO.
    Otherwise - if Fla goes to the Sugar, then it's FLA-L'ville.

    So - no ND the way I look at it.



    BTW - I'd rather see Michigan play OSU* - because I envision the 1995 Fiesta bowl all over again for the Gators - a blowout. I think Michigan matches up better with OSU* and is the better team.
    I'm not sure who "deserves" it or whatever.
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    After typing all that - I see WVa just beat Rutgers.

    Now - I think L'ville is the Big East champ. So - they'll end up in the Orange against Wake I think.

    I think this means ND does, in fact, get a bid - probably to the Sugar.
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    The Fiesta is on Jan 1st - the Championship is on Jan 8th in Tempe. Or maybe Glendale.

    I'd hope we'd have a plus one/4 team playoff/whatever the f*ck you wanna call it - but I'm skeptical that it ever happens.
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    JMH ND was getting a BCS bid no matter what, if they qualify they will get an at large bid. my bowl prejections in will be up in a bit.
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    Locks:
    Orange Bowl: WF vs UL
    Fiesta: OU vs Boise st.

    If UF goes to the natl championship
    Sugar: ND vs LSU
    Rose: Mich vs USC

    IF Mich goes:
    Sugar: ND vs UF
    Rose: LSU vs USC
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    Hmmm. Interesting numbers RD.
    After reading that - I'm more inclined with my pick of Mich to go to the championship.
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    These are UF's credentials

    Florida 12-1

    Games vs. Current Ranked Teams in AP:
    Florida 4 (6 would be Georgia who is 26th, South Carolina is 30th)

    Florida 3 (5 would be UGA/SC)

    Best Wins:
    Florida beat #5 LSU----
    Florida beat #9 Arkansas-----
    Florida beats #17 Tennessee-----
    Florida beats #30 South Carolina----

    Top 10 Teams Defeated:
    Florida 2

    Top 5 teams/BCS Teams defeated:
    Florida 1

    Loss Comparison:
    Florida lost 17-27 at #11 Auburn.
    Florida was off a huge home win over LSU, then traveled to Auburn during an ESPN Night Game. Florida lead at halftime 17-11. Did not allow Auburn in the endzone offensively. Had a controversial questionable call on 3rd and short on the Auburn 11 yard line of a Chris Leak "fumble". With the score 20-17 and Florida trying to do a desperation hook and lateral, Auburn scooped a fumble and scampered in for a meaningless TD as the clock expired. Auburn was a top 10 team at the time.

    Wins vs. Bowl Eligible Teams:
    Florida 10

    Strength of Schedule:
    Florida: #1

    http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2006/Inte...games_past.pdf


    And here we go....the most important stat of all. Everything that has been compared above does not matter. They have a harder schedule, have more wins vs. quality opponents, have more wins vs. top 10 opponents, top 5 opponents, and it all doesnt matter.


    Margin of Victory:
    Florida: 13.8
    *Note: Florida's 62-0 win over Western Carolina was discarded from these averages.

    This was from someones post on another foruming comparing UF to USC i took out the USC stuff, and i will create and compile stats up for michigan so we have something to compare them too.
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    It's also very cheap to compare their common victory over Vandy. Mich played them at home and UF played them on the road. Also UF was up 25-6 going into the 4th, and we went conservative.

    You said "So, with fairly even schedules, which teams were more in danger of losing? "

    Mich played c. mich, n'western, ball st, indiana
    UF played, w.carolina, so miss, and UCF

    Mich played more cupcake teams and 1 less game than UF. Michigan played 5 non bowl eligable teams and UF only played 3 non bowl eligable teams.
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    UF
    Margin of victory: 18.08
    Margin of victory w/o w Carolina: 14.09
    Margin of victory against bowl eligible teams: 9.9

    Mich
    Margin of victory: 17.27
    Margin of victory against bowl eligible teams: 15.82

    Record of all teams UF played: 81-46
    Record of all teams Mich played: 78-47
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    I dont have exact numbers on this, but SEC is tougher than big 10, i believe SEC's out of conference record against major conferences is better and more impressive than that of the big 10. These only include a game in which the opponent was a top 25 team

    Edit:
    Big 10 wins: OSU/texas, MICH nd
    Big 10 losses: Minn/Cal, MSU/ND

    SEC wins: Tenn/cal, Georgia/GT, s.carolina/clemson
    SEC losses: Kentucky/UL, ark/usc (no mcfadden)

    ok, thats kind of a push, but we do have 3 wins against top 25 OOC teams while you guys have 2
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    Most of Mich's bowl eligable teams were 6 game winners, so while you beat us in that category in margin of victory, you didn't play as many top teams which factor into that margin of victory. Also UF played 5 top 25 defeses which tend to keep the score of the game down so its harder to have a higher margin of victory.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    Michigan is 19-5 against the SEC, for what past years performance is worth.

    which has what to do with this year?
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    All this talk makes me wish somehow UF and Mich could play, that would be a good game in my mind.
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    Check how evenly matched these two teams are in terms of NCAA rankings (keep in mind i still think UF's SOS is tougher)

    UF: Ranking Summary
    Mich: Ranking Summary
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    Michigan's uniforms and fightsong are better. Ann Arbor is home to the biggest football stadium in the entire known universe.
    I do like your unis and color, even though I bleed orange a blue now. I like our fight song, and nothing compares to The Swamp, which is why it's rated the best stadium in the nation year after year.
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    Florida will be #2 because Michigan's best win [Notre Dame] is further tarnished by the USC loss. I don't think Gator fans have anything to worry about.
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    Florida should play Ohio State.

    If Florida does not play them, then the choice should be Boise State. In a way, I actually think Boise State deserves it the most.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    Michigan's uniforms and fightsong are better. Ann Arbor is home to the biggest football stadium in the entire known universe.
    I thought Rocky Top had the largest.
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    Binge,
    Neyland is like 3k behind the Big House. It is the biggest stadium for football in the known universe - as RD says.

    Edit - there was/is/something like that talk of a Tennessee-Virgina Tech matchup in the Bristol Motor Speedway (NASCAR venue) - that would be like 60k bigger than the Big House...



    My opinion is not about this SOS and who played whom - it's who I think will put up a better fight.
    I already said I think Michigan will put up a better fight. I envision the '95 Fiesta all over again if Fla gets in. And no one wants to see that (except OSU* fans).
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmh80

    My opinion is not about this SOS and who played whom - it's who I think will put up a better fight.
    Good thing your not a voter then. I'm somewhat confident UF will get in...i'm going to be in suspence all day. No one gave UF a chance against akransas and look what happened. No one is giving us a chance at OSU. OSU better watch out if we go, upset city baby.
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    Your = you're or you are and suspence = suspense

    Regardless of spelling - I don't think many people picked Arky to win esp. after LSU beat them. Not sure where you guys are getting that from.

    Something else I just thought of that makes my pick of Michigan to the championship even better is that LSU will end up in the Rose. That is a better game than SC-Michigan (traditional Rose Bowl matchup be damned). Imagine the buildup on that one???
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmh80
    Regardless of spelling - I don't think many people picked Arky to win esp. after LSU beat them. Not sure where you guys are getting that from.

    Most of the sharp betters around the nation were fading florida and were on arkansas last week. Also the USA Today Poll just came out, FL is number 2....yea baby, for all you gator haters out there, I know what it feels like to be a ND fan.

    Edit : we are also number 2 in the ap poll, OSU here we come!!!
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    Bring It!!!
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    I have a source that knows someone on the BCS committee and UF will be playing OSU for the natl championship.
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    Agreed at RD. Get ready for the talk of OSU* '06 being the best ever...
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    Meh. They jumped the gun because of some report down here.

    Just like Spurrier was going to Bama or Miami - don't count your chickens before they hatch.


    So - are you and CED59 now enemies?
    And who will the Buckeyes root for in the Rose? The arch-***** Wolervines or the hated Trojans?
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    All I can say is.......ohio state your GATOR BAIT!!
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