Conference Play and my Upset Picks

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    Conference Play and my Upset Picks


    Time for teams to get real now. Time to play for 8 slots in 4 bowl games. Old rivalries and classic matchups. The games that mattered before the BCS. I love conf. play. It's traditional, classic, and it just feels more like fall. After a crappy few weeks as a Buckeye fan, I have reason to be excited again. Iowa comes to our house for what I think is goin to be a great game between classic programs. Of course THE OSU is going to win, but I have some upset picks just for the fun of discusion.

    BGSU over Boise St

    BC over Clemson

    Purdue over Minni

    Tenn over LSU I know there are a lot of LSU people on here, but I'm going with the Vols here.

    call me stupid, but for the hell of it I choose
    Oregon over USC The PAC 10 is weak this year and I have to pick my USC upsets the few times that I can. Don't forget, USC squeaked out of 4 close ones last year.

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    2/5 and I got one of the ones that I really wanted in Tenn over LSU. I just hope Tenn doesn't jump OSU in the polls now.
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    Yeah, that Tennessee game was HYPE!

    I'm a Vol fan, I admit. But a Wyoming fan first and foremost.

    And who noticed that my Cowboys took out Ole Miss? Yeah, that's right. The Wyoming Cowboys are laying down the smack on the SEC. Bring it, Bama. Right here UGA.

    Heh. Okay, so Florida got a few lucky calls.
    •   
       

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    Stupid Upset Picks part 2

    Bama over Florida
    Meatchicken over Michigan State
    WVU over VA Tech
    ASU over USC (it's gonna happen)

    And A.T.S. Syracuse +20.5 over FSU
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    2/5 again, son of a bitch. Good thing I don't pick like this for real.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BingeAndPurge
    ASU over USC (it's gonna happen)
    NOT!

    But they sure had you going the first half though...
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    USC is amazing, I've never seen a team that teases other teams and viewers into thinking they are beat in the first half, then making adjustments and putting teams away.

    '95 Nebraska and '01 Miami were good, but this team is flippin' great, but they are suspectable to either or a slow TOP control running and horizontal passing game, keep the USC offense off the field or a Get into the backfield Bama level Defense, get to Leinart.

    Cal has the runners, and Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame has game, I would not be suprised to see either grind out a slow win, but I would'nt bet on it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    USC is amazing, I've never seen a team that teases other teams and viewers into thinking they are beat in the first half, then making adjustments and putting teams away.

    '95 Nebraska and '01 Miami were good, but this team is flippin' great, but they are suspectable to either or a slow TOP control running and horizontal passing game, keep the USC offense off the field or a Get into the backfield Bama level Defense, get to Leinart.

    Cal has the runners, and Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame has game, I would not be suprised to see either grind out a slow win, but I would'nt bet on it.
    The thing is, the PAC 10 is renowned for mediocre d. I give USC props for their O, streak, whatever, but not for the conference they play in. There is absolutely NO comparison between them and the 95 Nebraska team that blew the faces off of every team they faced in a time when the Big 12 was great.
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    You are right, Binge, I was working on something else when I put that up. Those Huskers faced better competition.
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    http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/data....php?year=1995

    I guess it was still the big 8, but here are their scores. Four of these teams were in the top ten when they played, and the Huskers beat them by an avg of 35 points. Their schedule was pretty damn favorable, though.
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    More stupid upset picks coming at ya

    Northwestern over Wisconsin
    Virginia over BC
    Nebraska over Texas Tech
    Rutgers over WVU
    chOklahoma over Texas
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    It's actually pretty amazing when you go back and look at college football before conferences. Having grown up watching SEC football, I was kind of used to seeing the same teams play each other over and over again.

    I was looking through that college football datawarehouse and well, look at Miami's schedule from their 1991 team:

    Arkansas
    Houston (TX)
    Tulsa (OK)
    Oklahoma St.
    Penn St.
    Cal St.-Long Beach
    Arizona
    West Virginia
    Florida State
    Boston College
    San Diego State
    Nebraska (Orange Bowl)


    The year before?


    Brigham Young (UT)
    California
    Iowa
    Florida State
    Kansas
    Notre Dame (IN)
    Texas Tech
    Pittsburgh (PA)
    Boston College (MA)
    Syracuse (NY)
    San Diego St. (CA)
    Texas (Cotton Bowl_



    Okay, Boston College and Florida State--the only consistencies in that schedule whatsoever. Well, left out San Diego State, but it looks like that one only lasted two years.

    What the crap! Oh, and remember the days when BYU was a major powerhouse? It would be kind of nice to see some teams like that emerge again out of the west, if BYU isn't going to do it again, anyway.
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    The same thing kind of happened in the Big 10. In the old days they called the Big 2 (OSU+scUM) and little 8. From what I've been told, Hayden Frye at Iowa was the first coach to step up and change all of that. Then they added Penn State during their prime. There has been talk for a few years of a 12th team so we can have a playoff. The names I hear mentioned the most are ND, Missouri, West Virginia, and Pitt. IMO, ND is a mock Big 10 team anyway and I'd love to have them over everyone else.

    Here's a question, how do you guys feel about adding bigger names to upcoming schedules? I know that since the BCS dropped the SOS factor, some teams have dropped the bigger games. OSU has added home&home's with Texas, USC, and, I think, VA Tech. With the 12th game being added, would you guys who are fans of perennial programs and national championship contendors favor risking an early loss for a great matchup, or would you rather beat up on a good high school team?
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    Where did you read OSU plays USC and V tech? 2006 OSu plays Northern Ill. and Cincinnati at home. Then OSU plays Bowling Green, Indiana,Northwestern, and Illinios. They might play those games in later years i would just like to know where you read that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by buffb2
    Where did you read OSU plays USC and V tech? 2006 OSu plays Northern Ill. and Cincinnati at home. Then OSU plays Bowling Green, Indiana,Northwestern, and Illinios. They might play those games in later years i would just like to know where you read that.
    http://ohiostate.scout.com/3/fbschedule.html
    Also have home and home's with Miami and Cal.
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    No Minny over Meatchicken!? Would'nt really be an upset, though it would break the 16 game win streak that UM Southeast has over UM Northwest.

    As a fan, I'm of two minds, I'd like to see more Big Matchups, ala OSU - Tejas, but it's smarter for teams to play lesser but not too weak competition in the early OOC. Lesser permits an safer time to work out the early kinks and less chance of injury before you hit the conference, too weak is poor prep for the real thing. Won't happen more anyway, too much contender and financial risk with the BCS system and the Littles would bitch too much about revenue loss from not getting to play the Bigs as often.
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    Damnit, Clemson was my lock of the week, but I had trouble getting on here. This is a hard week for possible upsets.

    Stupid upset picks:
    Florida over LSU
    PSU over scUM
    Virginia over FSU
    WVU over Louisville
    DOMERS over USC (please!!)
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    Just except the fact that the Trojans are the best team in the country and this year is the year that they three-peat brother.
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    May USC please go done in a ball of flames!
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    the SC game should be a good one. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan woke up & played like men & beat Penn State. Do I think it'll happen? Don't know, wierder things have happened....
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    Yeah, the scUM/PSU game is a hard one. Is Hart starting? Michigan's D has looked pretty awful, and PSU's has looked great most of the time. They're still a hard team to gague. They racked up points and allowed almost as many against NW, and held OSU to 10, but OSU has the worst O in the Big 10 and NW has a pretty good system going. Who would of thought that OSU and UM would be sitting like this in early October? Indiana is 4-1, PSU is 6-0. Is the parody that bad?

    And could USC please play someone with a good defense? Forget this "greatest of all time" BS. Dig a 20+ hole against a team that's good on both sides of the ball and see what happens. PSU, FSU, VT, and Texas all have decent to good D's, (VT and Texas have the better O's of the 4) and if USC makes it, one of these teams is going to make them and their fans look stupid.
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    Looks like Notre Dame is a 12-point underdog. I'd bet against that spread. I would not at all be surprised to see USC go down in this one.
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    ND seems to be the popular choice right now. We'll see come gameday I guess.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Drone
    Take PSU and the 3.5 points. Michigan could suprise but I doubt it and hope not. Won't matter if Hart starts, he will, Michigan's O-Line won't give him the gaps, and Henne will still throw too hard and too far. There are two dozen things wrong with this team, and they all begin and end with the head coach.

    This is seriously the worst performing and coached Michigan team I have ever seen, the best thing that could happen now, for the future, is for UM to lose every single remaining game to create enough pressure on the Administration to retire Carr, the arrogant burnedout fossil.
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    The Kunkur was supportive. I'll always be a UofM fan. can't help it, born & raised there. Now, I live 10 min. from the LSU campus & my new LSU grad bride can't figure out why I still root for the Wolverines....


    You're right though, Carr needs the boot...
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    Quote Originally Posted by BingeAndPurge
    ... and if USC makes it, one of these teams is going to make them and their fans look stupid.
    Just like OU was supposed to last year??
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    Quote Originally Posted by sikdogg
    Just like OU was supposed to last year??
    At least Stoops takes personal responsibilty for OU's weakness, Unlike Michigan's Carr who only blames the players. I hope the King falls on his face, but I would'nt bet on it till I see it, USC has some serious horsepower.

    I still think LSU is going to win the SEC, we shall see.
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    For the record, USC is shooting for 2, not 3.
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    ha, what's the matter Binge, you an LSU fan too??? I'm so tired of all the LSU fans here in Baton Rouge. They cry every time they see or hear of SC... Get over it, you tied for Ntl Champs!


    Don't get me wrong, living in Michigan, I always used to love Thursday night football on ESPN watching the SEC teams, (namely LSU) & their speed. I'm still an LSU fan, just more so for the Wolverines. LSU hasn't really impressed me much yet this year. Beat FL tomorrow & you have my vote for SEC Champs. That Tenn game kinda soured my stomach..
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    Quote Originally Posted by BingeAndPurge
    And could USC please play someone with a good defense? Forget this "greatest of all time" BS. Dig a 20+ hole against a team that's good on both sides of the ball and see what happens. PSU, FSU, VT, and Texas all have decent to good D's.
    I agree but I disagree about Penn State and Florida state having good Ds... neither one has played any teams with a decent O...

    I have no clue why Florida state is ranked so high... its like the old bias for Notre Dame back in the 80s and early 90s... Florida state beat Miami in the first game... barely... with stupidly sloppy play from both teams. This is why strength of schedule should have something to do with the AP poll... I'm tired of teams like the Seminoles and Hurricanes getting ranked so high with subpar performances.
    Granted they both have had great teams in the past (in the last few years even)... but face it... Miami SUCKED last year and they arent much better this year either... and Florida State isnt much better IMO.... both teams are just like Notre dame from a couple decades ago... decent teams but seriously overrated and never won games they were "supposed" to.

    Now as for USC... if they played a team with a REALLY GOOD defense and a consistently decent offense... they would lose....
    case in point, if they played against Bama (yup i'm biased) two weeks ago, they would have lost... now if bama can be consistently good like that, we'll see... They play Tennessee next week and LSU a few weeks after that.

    What pisses me off, is that Texas and VT both arent playing anymore good teams and have much less of a chance of losing... this puts out the SEC teams (because at least one will most likely be undefeated, or ranked highly after the SEC championship; bama or georgia its looking right now)
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    We'll see Bean. At Blacksburg on Nov. 5th will show the country just about the Canes.

    I'll make some picks for tomorrow:
    I think USC trashes ND.
    LSU beats FLA.
    Michigan snaps out of their season-long slumber and beats Penn State
    Texas beats Colorodo by less than 10 points.
    Ohio St. bounces back and beats MSU.

    And, last but not least, Miami pitches a shutout against Temple in Philly.
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    Mtruther - The Canes schedules back in the Independent days were radically different every season, save for FSU (and Florida until they pussied out in '87 or whenever). No conference affiliation does that.

    Binge - good to see Miami-OSU in '09/'10.
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    I say LSU loses to Florida, but not by much, it will be a close game...
    Penn State loses (good team,but not top 10 good, sorry)
    Texas beats colorado... just an average win..
    And MSU beats OhioState... I think MSU got robbed when playing Michigan they should have won that game. Ohio State doesnt have much to keep them up in the rankings... I dont think their defense is very good honestly (who have they played... really?) and their offense is pathetic.

    Oh and your avatar rocks Reminds me of a girl down here that I know... I love it when she wears white pants
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    missed out on LSU and Ohio state... though I think if the coaching at MSU wasnt so crappy they might have won that game.

    Predicted Penn state and then Florida state handily proved my point about their defense (and their team) being completely overhyped.

    Rankings on Sunday should be:
    1) USC (will have lost some ground to Texas)
    2) Texas
    3) VT
    4) Georgia
    5) Alabama
    6) ND
    7) LSU
    8) Miami
    9) Texas Tech
    10) Fla State
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    I say USC loses close to 15 votes.
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    I think Texas did gain a few 1st place. VTech had a 1st place last week (I think it had to be from ole' Flubber Neck himself).

    Looks like I was right on all my games - just wrong on the potential scores.

    Just goes to show what I've known for a while - I can't predict a score worth a ****.
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    Florida State D is definetly not overhyped. We have our weekpoints but thats not one of them. Sure they had an off game, but Hagans had an incredible night. He is extremely quick, even when we were all over him he somehow managed to get free. The refs were horrible as well. We couldnt sneeze without getting a penalty for it. Basically they beat themselves with bad play calling, an inexperienced QB, a weak offensive line, and an off night for the D. Ole Miss almost ate Bamas lunch anyway. The "everyone but Bama BS sucks" rhetoric is just lame. I dont see them going undefeated this year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by z28man
    Florida State D is definetly not overhyped. We have our weekpoints but thats not one of them. Sure they had an off game, but Hagans had an incredible night. He is extremely quick, even when we were all over him he somehow managed to get free. The refs were horrible as well. We couldnt sneeze without getting a penalty for it. Basically they beat themselves with bad play calling, an inexperienced QB, a weak offensive line, and an off night for the D. Ole Miss almost ate Bamas lunch anyway. The "everyone but Bama BS sucks" rhetoric is just lame. I dont see them going undefeated this year.
    Sorry, but since they havent played any good teams (and yeah unready Miami for the opening game of the season doesnt count, both teams looked pathetic) and then LOST to a team that isnt that good (Virginia was handily beaten by Maryland and Boston College)... I dont see a "great defense for the ages" like I keep hearing

    Dont complain about the penalties... there were A LOT of teams with penalty problems.... I was watching 3-4 games at once almost all day and I couldnt BELIEVE the amount of calls being made on punt returns (granted its primetime for some illegal blocks and holding calls), but it was really bad.

    No one ever came up with your 'rhetoric'... but you attempting to point out its existence DOES show a bit of jealousy.

    They might not go undefeated; who knows? But they are hella furthur than I thought they'd be... definitely bowl bound (hopefully a BCS bowl!)... and they havent lost yet either We'll see next week if they beat Tennessee and a few weeks later LSU.

    Rankings:

    As for the rankings, USC lost 1 first place vote. Thats it. ND remains at #9; definitely some respect given there for such a good game.

    1. USC (57) 6-0 1,617
    2. Texas (8) 6-0 1,566
    3. Virginia Tech 6-0 1,495
    4. Georgia 6-0 1,426
    5. Alabama 6-0 1,306
    6. Miami 5-1 1,278
    7. LSU 4-1 1,201
    8. UCLA 6-0 1,085
    9. Notre Dame 4-2 1,020
    10. Texas Tech 6-0 1,007
    11. Florida State 5-1 1,003
    12. Penn State 6-1 854
    13. Boston College 6-1 809
    14. Ohio State 4-2 798
    15. Oregon 6-1 665
    16. Auburn 5-1 644
    17. Tennessee 3-2 581
    18. Florida 5-2 575
    19. Wisconsin 6-1 549
    20. West Virginia 6-1 379
    21. TCU 6-1 249
    22. Michigan State 4-2 223
    23. Virginia 4-2 161
    24. Fresno State 4-1 100
    25. California 5-2 89
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmh80
    Just goes to show what I've known for a while - I can't predict a score worth a ****.
    Don't sweat it, very few people can consistently beat the spread in CFB. Those who claim they can make big $ on it are usually lying
    for ego or to sell their picks.

    I've been gambling for a long time. There are three ways, in my experience, to use College Football as an investment vehicle either 1) learn everything there is to know about a few select teams and the conference they play in, get areal feel for those teams only or 2) bet always against the spread with an equal dollar amount in as many games as possible, one can make ~5% a week this way, or 3) find an "expert" who's consistently wrong, most all are, and go contrarian to him. The second method is best for most people, a few simple rules applied universally with proper money management.

    IMO, people who define a mechanical technical analysis system(s) for CFB would be better off using their methods in other sports or Futures, it's an inherently unpredicatable activity, which is why it's so fun to be a fan, a rollercoaster of ups and downs.

    College Football is probably the worst sports betting vehicle for consistent returns and Pro Basketball is the best. The consistentcy and number of games in the NBA, particularly playing against the perennial bad versus ATS teams like the Atlanta Hawks is where one can do well week after week. I don't give a damn about roundball or know much about playing it, and that makes me a better gambler for using a dry technical method only.

    I don't bet CFB anymore, it takes the fun out of it, fun/feel and $ consistentcy are contrary positions.
  

  
 

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