[Kruger]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

I may not have seen as much as someone whose only 10 yrs older than me, but at least im not listening to Barack Obama. The man is a joke, at best.

If you think hes a joke, then you must have listening to him at one point. Its the height of arrogance to think that Obama, a Harvard Grad and probably the next president is a joke.

I don't agree with many of his positions at all and won't vote for him but it would be completely ridiculous for me to think the man is a joke.

Maybe when you're a bit older, you might understand that.

[futurepilot]

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

Its quite obvious you don't follow the energy markets and the unbelievable boom solar, wind and battery companies have experienced in the last 10 years.

Everyone knows oil is unsustainable....its the reason the free market will reward the companies that bring new technology to market.

I have been following up and coming solar/wind/battery companies which is why i think that drilling is not the answer.

Isnt that pretty much what i've been saying this whole time? That we need to give incentive to these new technology instead of obscuring them by drilling for more oil?


I've listen to most of Obamas speeches, that i doesnt mean i believe him. And just because you go to harvard doesnt mean you have common sense.

I am free to my opinion as are you. It seems that you are on the brink of resorting to personal attacks to illustrate your point so i will agree to disagree, and leave it at that.

[dave12]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

Offshore drilling is a waste of time, money and the environment. There's at best 2 yrs worth of oil in the gulf. and its not like the oil companys will flood the market with cheap gas, prices will stay the same, it will just delay the enevitable. When we must run our cars without petroleum

Sorry was on the boat, you made this statement alleging that there is a maximum of two years of oil supply in the gulf of mexico, everything I have asked is related to where you came to said conclusion. You state offshore drilling is folly because of a lack of recoverable resources. So I ask where has this figure come from? (Also, my figure of 2.228 billion barrel of oil comes from the US Department of Energy daily oil import average over the last 5 years.)

[futurepilot]

Originally Posted by dave12

Sorry was on the boat, you made this statement alleging that there is a maximum of two years of oil supply in the gulf of mexico, everything I have asked is related to where you came to said conclusion. You state offshore drilling is folly because of a lack of recoverable resources. So I ask where has this figure come from? (Also, my figure of 2.228 billion barrel of oil comes from the US Department of Energy daily oil import average over the last 5 years.)

thats alright, i wondered where you disappeared to.

My source off hand is chevron, as related through an AP newswire that i found on msnbc, the link is on the first page.

The 2.288 billion, im still confused i guess. Your saying that i said thats all thats there? Because i did not, i've said there is 3-15 billion barrels available, with the US using 7-8 billion barrels a year, you get 2 years at best.

[Kruger]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

I have been following up and coming solar/wind/battery companies which is why i think that drilling is not the answer.

Nobody is saying drilling is the "answer". There is no one answer. Drilling will help and the amount of oil recoverable form the east coast, west coast, gulf, anwr, oil shale is more than twice that of what Saudia Arabia has in reserve (250 billion).

You seem to tihnk those that want to drill think its the "answer". Sorry, we're not that dense. The same people who bought oil companies stocks and/or futures are the same investing in solar, wind, batteries, etc....the free market always has brought new technology and answers to existing problems and always will.

Isnt that pretty much what i've been saying this whole time? That we need to give incentive to these new technology instead of obscuring them by drilling for more oil?

The free market is incentive enough. Its the reason people start business's. Money. Necessity is the mother of all invention...

I've listen to most of Obamas speeches, that i doesnt mean i believe him. And just because you go to harvard doesnt mean you have common sense.

Yeah....forming probably the largest grass roots campaign thats raised more money in the history of politics generally means you have some sort of competence...but thats me.

I am free to my opinion as are you. It seems that you are on the brink of resorting to personal attacks to illustrate your point so i will agree to disagree, and leave it at that.

I haven't personally attacked you at all. I said its the height of arrogance at 23 to think someone is a joke with the kind of accomplishments he's already achieved.

[Kruger]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

Your saying that i said thats all thats there? Because i did not, i've said there is 3-15 billion barrels available, with the US using 7-8 billion barrels a year, you get 2 years at best.

Yes you did.

There's at best 2 yrs worth of oil in the gulf.

You used one oil find with one oil company on already leased lands to make a statement about the entire gulf.

[futurepilot]

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

Nobody is saying drilling is the "answer". There is no one answer. Drilling will help and the amount of oil recoverable form the east coast, west coast, gulf, anwr, oil shale is more than twice that of what Saudia Arabia has in reserve (250 billion).

Nope sorry, that oil shale your talking about is only at best 1% recoverable, meaning out of the possible 167 bilion barrels we could get 1 billion barrels, enough for less than 2 month of american consumtion.

And as far as other oil sources. i may have been misleading with my post relating to chevron. Your correct those are known oil areas, but the true extent of the viable oil is not known.

Here is the current status of oil in the U.S.


Recent studies2,3 estimated that the US may have 42 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable oil resources in Federal areas that are under access restrictions preventing oil exploration. Undiscovered technically recoverable resources are resources "…postulated from geologic information and theory to exist outside of known oil and gas accumulations and that are producible using current recovery technology, but without reference to economic profitability…"

About 21.2 billion barrels of these oil resources are located in the eleven onshore areas inventoried by the two EPCA studies2:

Northern Alaska (including the NPR-A and the ANWR 1002 area)
Wyoming Thrust Belt (in WY, UT, and ID)
Denver Basin (in CO, WY, NE, and SD)
Florida Peninsula
Black Warrior Basin (in MS and AL)
Appalachian Basin (in TN, KY, WV, VA, MD, OH, PA, NJ and NY)
Paradox/San Juan Basins (in CO, NM and UT)
Uinta-Piceance Basin (in CO and UT)
Greater Green River Basin (in CO and WY)
Powder River Basin (in MT and WY)
Montana Thrust Belt (in MT)
The remaining 20.8 billion barrels are in offshore locations, primarily3 in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf (Gulf of Mexico, Alaska, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans).

If these estimates are correct, the new resources can supply the US with crude for about 7.6 years at current consumption levels. However, we also need to estimate the bump in the US production rate that can be obtained from the 42 billion barrels of new oil resources. We can get a quick estimate of these rates by using a generalized Bass model4 with time-dependent ultimate cumulative production. The scenario presented here assumed that production from the new fields would start around 2020 and reach a peak of 3 million barrel per day around 2040. However, the model can easily handle different production schedules.


2. "Scientific Inventory of Onshore Federal Lands’ Oil and Gas Resources and the Extent and
Nature of Restrictions or Impediments to Their Development," Report by the US
Departments of the Interior, Agriculture and Energy, 2006.
3. "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," National Petroleum Council, July 2007.

[Kruger]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

Nope sorry, that oil shale your talking about is only at best 1% recoverable, meaning out of the possible 167 bilion barrels we could get 1 billion barrels, enough for less than 2 month of american consumtion.

And where did you get that from because the pdf I've read said 1.8 trillion barrels.


http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/re...Fact_Sheet.pdf

And as far as other oil sources. i may have been misleading with my post relating to chevron. Your correct those are known oil areas, but the true extent of the viable oil is not known.

Which is why I posted the assessment of OCS oil reserves.


" The MMS has completed an assessment of the undiscovered technically recoverable resources (UTRR) underlying offshore waters on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). This assessment was based on information available as of January 1, 2003, including information obtained from new exploration activities.

The MMS estimates that the quantity of undiscovered technically recoverable resources ranges from 66.6 to 115.3 billion barrels of oil and 326.4 to 565.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The mean or average estimate is 85.9 billion barrels of oil and 419.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. These volumes of UTRR for the OCS represent about 60 percent of the total oil and 40 percent of the total natural gas estimated to be contained in undiscovered fields in the United States. The mean estimates for both oil and gas increased about 15 percent compared to the 2001 assessment. For the oil resources, the vast majority of this increase occurred in the deepwater areas of the Gulf of Mexico, while for gas resources the majority of the increase was in deep gas plays located beneath the shallow water shelf of the Gulf of Mexico.

These estimates represent the potential quantities of undiscovered hydrocarbons that can be conventionally produced using existing or reasonably foreseeable technology, without any consideration of economic feasibility. Current technology includes drilling in water in excess of 3000 meters (10,000 feet) deep and to subsea depths in excess of 9600 meters (31,700 feet).

MMS periodically conducts comprehensive assessments of the undiscovered oil and gas resources on the OCS. The last comprehensive inventory was completed in 2001, with an interim update in 2003 to reflect significant changes in natural gas potential in the Gulf of Mexico. The resource assessments also include production and reserve estimates for the OCS as well as estimates of undiscovered economically recoverable resources. Undiscovered economically recoverable resources (UERR), presented in the form of price-supply curves, represent the portion of the undiscovered technically recoverable hydrocarbons that can be explored, developed and commercially produced at given costs and price considerations."



http://www.mms.gov/revaldiv/PDFs/200...ntBrochure.pdf

[futurepilot]

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

And where did you get that from because the pdf I've read said 1.8 trillion barrels.


Which is why I posted the assessment of OCS oil reserves.

This is the current bakken analysis.

http://bismarcktribune.com/articles/...ate/154403.txt


And the above post (#67) is also the current oil numbers, like i was trying to explain before, that study you posted (#15) is from 2001, with a recalibration in 2003, but the last comprehensive assement was the original in 2001.

[Kruger]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

This is the current bakken analysis.

Bismarck Tribune - North Dakota News - N.D. study estimates 167 billion barrels of oil in Bakken

No, thats the opinion. Others disagree not to mention the pdf I posted shows whats totally avaialable. I also find it curious they didn't even mention freeze wall technology for oil shale extraction...

And the above post (#67) is also the current oil numbers, like i was trying to explain before, that study you posted (#15) is from 2001, with a recalibration in 2003, but the last comprehensive assement was the original in 2001.

Can you please post the .gov pdf for that. The only thing I find with that text is an article here:

Peak Oil: Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas - USA - On Quenching Our "Big Thirst" for Oil

...and when they estimate the amount of oil they do not use the governmental assessment for OCS suppleis...they use:


"Scientific Inventory of Onshore Federal Lands"

and..

3. "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," National Petroleum Council, July 2007.



Now considering Chevron found 15 billion in one area, I find it a bit hard to believe this article is....accurate.

[futurepilot]

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

No, thats the opinion. .

No, thats the results found by the state Department of Mineral Resources.

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

Now considering Chevron found 15 billion in one area, I find it a bit hard to believe this article is....accurate.

Chevron is estimating an upper range of 15 billion, the lower range being 3billion.

The results for post #67 were done by the US
Departments of the Interior, Agriculture and Energy. And the National Petroleum Council, how is it hard to believe the accuracy?

[Kruger]

****....i actually deleted that when editing...




In short,


The numbers you posted in your post are from an artcle that cites two resources. One is the global estimates and the other is the ONSHORE estimates.

"Scientific Inventory of Onshore Federal Lands"




They are not assessments for the OCS and there is only one orginization that handles that...its the MMS.

"The dedicated men and women of the Minerals Management Service regulate domestic energy production off America’s coast on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). "

...the other resource is about global supply (although I mistakenly looked at global as US) and thats here. Please show me where it states 20 billion estimates in the OCS because I can't find it.

Download Facing the Hard Truths about Energy

[futurepilot]

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

No, because studies have figures from 3,10,20,50 and 70% extraction...and the Bakken formation is ONE formation. "And lets not forget the Bakken Formation that esti