increasing offshore drilling

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  1. USGS survey puts Anwr at approx 10.4 billion barrels, I've heard larger #'s stated on local newscast either way thats enough to think about, only problem is do you really think any of that oil will stay domestic? As it is we (in AK) pay more for fuel than most places diesel is up to $5.33 now (there is a refinery less than 100 miles from my town) and i don't think its going down anytime soon. When the minister of Opec states that according to supply and demand oil should be about $70 per barrel and now he says it could go as high as $175 a barrel, its all a game to the players that control the oil, case in point Exxon and the Supreme circus ruling last week. It's all lip service from the Bush administration on down & we are over the barrel.


  2. So if the government allows offshore drilling than what company in their right mind is gonna pump it out and sell a product worth $125 a barrel for anything less than $125 a barrel? Our government? Yeah right, the same government that makes claims of $50,000 toilet seat expenditures is just gonna give away cheap gas. Think again, Mccain is only blowing campain smoke up our tailpipes.
    Quote Originally Posted by madds87 View Post
    Im not to fond of taking serm's for long periods of time....
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  3. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    That "proof" that your applauding is an outdated reference to possible oil that they may be able to use.

    Please post whatever references you have to refute my, already proven by the oil companies themselves, assertion.

    Yes, possible and for the most part a given to most geological experts. The only problem is companies are FORBIDDEN TO FIND OUT.


    SO that's you whole argument. There might be some there and we think that in lieu of the environmental issues we think oil companies shouldn't even be allowed to find out because we might disturb the ocean floor. Wow.


    Real great strategy there.


    The number you posted are the guaranteed finds that could be tapped probably within a year to two years because the infrastructure is already present. All they would have to do is move the platforms which by most accounts would take about a full year to be up and running and pumping oil.
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  4. Quote Originally Posted by timmmah View Post
    So if the government allows offshore drilling than what company in their right mind is gonna pump it out and sell a product worth $125 a barrel for anything less than $125 a barrel? Our government? Yeah right, the same government that makes claims of $50,000 toilet seat expenditures is just gonna give away cheap gas. Think again, Mccain is only blowing campain smoke up our tailpipes.
    Obviously you don't trade oil or know the margins of the oil companies. When the price goes up there margins go DOWN. When they have record profits they have record expenses. But that's ok, because if you really want to go down the route you suggest, get ready for $9/gallon of gallon for the next 10 years while your tax money get spent on "research".
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  5. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    You would be hard pressed to find a major oil company thats not vertically integrated, the price of oil that you see paraded across tickers on news stations in not reflective of the oil that was used to make the gas in my car right now.

    Really? I didnt know that


    Thats because most comapnies can't pass the 100% increase in oil to the customer. So what happens then...they don't make as much.

    An investment group holding commodities has little to do with actualcost. The cost of open market oil is not directly related to the actual cost of oil/gas. Its an immaginary number created by investment firms and hysteria in the media.

    Really and by what trading expertise did you come by this because last time I wanted to buy a couple futures contracts the price was reflected on the ask/bid. The largest companies that use oil purchase oil in futures market to lock in the price. SO when those large companies take delivery 6 months later you actually think the price isn't reflective of supply/demand?

    Why don't you ask Southwest airlines how they are doing with their hedging.

    Then ask the entire airlines industry why they going under then tell them the price is imaginary.



    That would be like McDonalds raising their prices because corn or chicken went up, its not relative. McDonalds, much like most oil companies, is vertically integrated. They are not dependant on outside sources for the bulk of their supply.

    Completely false. They are hedged with past futures prices or locked in prices that usually spand about 6 months. And last time I checked, Mcdonalds did raise prices, just in China. Same with General Mills and every other company in which margins are going down because of commodity prices. Prices have went up across the board.


    And that study you posted was done in 2001. Heres just one i found, theres many more, its common knowledge.

    Oil companies see big Gulf of Mexico discovery - Oil & energy - MSNBC.com

    That's not a study, that's an article talking about small leased sections of land that oil companies already have access too. The study I posted takes into account the lands that are blocked from oil companies (by legislation) and they can't even test drill to find out the quantities available. That's the problem..the government won't even allow companies to test drill or even find out whats available when every geological survey shows there are massive amounts there. East Coast, West Coast, Gulf of Mexico...do you think oil is only in the Gulf?

    If you are going to actually research an area in which I trade, please go a bit further than MSNBC and the small amounts of already leased land available. But then again what do you expect from MSNBC....


    What the are you talking about oil margins go down? Oil companies have been the most profitable EVER in recent years. I cant honestly fathom how you would think that oil companies arent making record profits right now.
    In recent years when a barrel of oil was $70. When the price goes parabolic, there operating costs go up...drastically. You do understand it takes oil to refine gasoline right?

    You do understand it takes oil and energy to drill right?

    What they drill today has been sold for months already and waiting for shipment so when they are locked in at $100 a barrel but their energy and shipping costs are working on a market in which energy has risen 20% do you think they are making less or more money. DO you think Opec raising production and saying its speculators causing the problem is because they want the price to go up?

    "In the United States, refining margins were down at the end of December about a third from their peak in 2007, according to a report from Bloomberg News. BP, the British petroleum giant, announced this month that lower U.S. refining margins helped contribute to a fourth-quarter refining and marketing loss of $1.8 billion. Refining margins also have been hurting Exxon and another big U.S. oil company, Chevron."


    Why don't you ask why Exxon is getting out of the retail gasoline business and why don't you tell me why the largest integrated oil stocks (Western oil companies) haven't climbed in the same fashion the price of oil has. Because everyone doing valuations on these companies know their margins and profits can't sustain this parabolic climb in the price of oil.

    These companies make the most when the price of crude is $60-80 a barrel. Their profit margins are going to go from around 10% to 8% with the current price.


    When oil goes up 100%, but gasoline only goes up 30%, you think they make more money?

    Exxon to exit U.S. retail gas business - Forbes.com


    XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation - Google Finance

    BP - BP plc (ADR) - Google Finance

    CVX - Chevron Corporation - Google Finance


    There are your 3 big Western Oil Companies. What direction is their stock price going form 2004?

    http://www.petda.org/documents/indus..._Feb172008.pdf
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  6. Quote Originally Posted by Bering C View Post
    USGS survey puts Anwr at approx 10.4 billion barrels, I've heard larger #'s stated on local newscast either way thats enough to think about, only problem is do you really think any of that oil will stay domestic? As it is we (in AK) pay more for fuel than most places diesel is up to $5.33 now (there is a refinery less than 100 miles from my town) and i don't think its going down anytime soon. When the minister of Opec states that according to supply and demand oil should be about $70 per barrel and now he says it could go as high as $175 a barrel, its all a game to the players that control the oil, case in point Exxon and the Supreme circus ruling last week. It's all lip service from the Bush administration on down & we are over the barrel.
    Exxon's refining margins are down. The Supreme Court is not ruled by Bush (as he lost a case two weeks ago about prisoners in Gitmo).

    Most US refineries are not setup to produce diesel. Its a very small percentage.

    Now, we could build more refineries to do this...oh wait..no we can't. Congress has blocked that. The environmentalists don't like it.

    When we go and buy that 87-93 octane, China buys diesel. Now we could drill, refine that oil into diesel and sell it..oh wait...Congress has blocked that too.
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  7. Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    you whole argument.


    The number you posted are the guaranteed finds that could be tapped probably within a year to two years because the infrastructure is already present. All they would have to do is move the platforms which by most accounts would take about a full year to be up and running and pumping oil.

    My argument is that im going to be alive, hopefully, longer than 7 more years. that would be 5 years to get the legislation passed, drill for it, process it, and make it into my gas tank. and the possibility of 2 years of oil, even with the fields that they know are there, they cant be for certain the viability of them as reliable sources.

    And yes, i feel guaranteed finds in recent years trumps a theoretical 66-115billion. Even best case scenario lets say your right...115 billion barrels, at our currrent consumption levels we would be done with it in less than 15 years. Ill be alive longer than that to. So unless your planning on handing the problem over to your children, and grand children this needs to be dealt with now.

  8. Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post

    Thats because most comapnies can't pass the 100% increase in oil to the customer. So what happens then...they don't make as much.
    Your right, 40billion dollars isnt that much.




    Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    6 months later you actually think the price isn't reflective of supply/demand?

    I didnt say 6 months later, i specifically said the gas that was in my tank right now.




    Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    They are hedged with past futures prices or locked in prices that usually spand about 6 months. And last time I checked, Mcdonalds did raise prices, just in China.
    True thats why southwest has stayed the only profitable airlines during this whole debacle.

    And i dont live in china. I can only reference things in my market.


    Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    If you are going to actually research an area in which I trade, please go a bit further than MSNBC and the small amounts of already leased land available. But then again what do you expect from MSNBC....
    First, slight clarification, its a AP article merely being presented by MSNBC, it's not like some company writer is doing it. The information contained in the article is free market, quoting chevrons own researchers. It not a scientific study, its actual research and developement by a major oil company.

    How about a cornell university geologist who says at most 60 billion barrels, which is still only 7-8 years, at best.

    http://www.scienceblog.com/community.../20031974.html


    Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    You do understand it takes oil and energy to drill right?

    you do understand these oil companies arent charging themselves $4 a gallon right?

    Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    DO you think Opec raising production and saying its speculators causing the problem is because they want the price to go up?
    They realize that they found our breaking point, people are starting to drive less, now they'll back the prices down to something thats still high, but we'll think its a deal after all these high prices. Its a conditioning.


    Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    Why don't you ask why Exxon is getting out of the retail gasoline business

    make the most when the price of crude is $60-80 a barrel.
    becasuse the retail isnt profitable anymore, those gas stations will still be around, they just arent goin to be company owned anymore. Big difference, their not leaving the retail biz all together, they're just selling the store fronts, they'll still be selling them oil though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    you think they make more money?

    Once again, yes its a fact, they are making more money now that ever in their history. I dont care what department their making it from, their still making it.


    Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    There are your 3 big Western Oil Companies. What direction is their stock price going form 2004?
    Not really concerned about stock price, another number based on speculation, and investors who own e-trade accounts and think watching jim cramer makes them warren buffet.

  9. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    Offshore drilling is a waste of time, money and the environment. There's at best 2 yrs worth of oil in the gulf. and its not like the oil companys will flood the market with cheap gas, prices will stay the same, it will just delay the enevitable. When we must run our cars without petroleum
    What the hell??

    Did you see the size of the Jack field Chevron found last year?

    Helluva lot more than 2 years worth of crude.

    Jesus.

  10. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    you do understand these oil companies arent charging themselves $4 a gallon right?
    First line - go read up on incremental economics. Then you'll understand. Otherwise - don't make statements about what gas is valued at in a refinery.
    (Hence - it's the last increment, or $4/gallon.)

    Your assumptions need the proper distinctions.

  11. dude, no need to drill on the coast.

    I know of a few places we could go for oil. It would not only be cheaper and more bountiful, but it would do American society a favor as a whole:

    New Jersey and Long Island.

    I don't mean to suggest genocide, but rather a de-guido-ification process, in which the vast amounts of oil can be extracted using some sort of aliphatic leaching process.

    I mean the guys in this pic alone are estimated to have enough oil to fuel 300 SUV's for 3,000 miles.

  12. Quote Originally Posted by thesinner View Post
    dude, no need to drill on the coast.

    I know of a few places we could go for oil. It would not only be cheaper and more bountiful, but it would do American society a favor as a whole:

    New Jersey and Long Island.

    I don't mean to suggest genocide, but rather a de-guido-ification process, in which the vast amounts of oil can be extracted using some sort of aliphatic leaching process.

    I mean the guys in this pic alone are estimated to have enough oil to fuel 300 SUV's for 3,000 miles.
    LMAO!

  13. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post

    Once again, yes its a fact, they are making more money now that ever in their history. I dont care what department their making it from, their still making it.
    You need to stop thinking in absolutes and start thinking in relative terms. The reason oil companies are making more money is because gasoline consumption has been going up at an annual rate of billions of gallons. If I make $0.10 to the gallon for X amount of people, I would still make less then if I sold to 3X amount of people at a rate of $0.05 to the gallon. Point fingers at the oil companies all you want for making this money, but really it's your own damn fault for choosing to own a car.

  14. Quote Originally Posted by thesinner View Post

    I don't mean to suggest genocide, but rather a de-guido-ification process, in which the vast amounts of oil can be extracted using some sort of aliphatic leaching process.
    maybe we could extract the oil while they sleep.
    then in the morning they would freak out and grease themselves back up.
    a perfect renewable energy source.

  15. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    Your right, 40billion dollars isnt that much.
    So what...if you don't like it, stop buying it.


    I didnt say 6 months later, i specifically said the gas that was in my tank right now.
    Yes and the gas you purchased right now was paid for 6 months ago and it is STILL based on supply and deman not some imaginary number. Gas always lags....guess you didn't know that.



    First, slight clarification, its a AP article merely being presented by MSNBC, it's not like some company writer is doing it. The information contained in the article is free market, quoting chevrons own researchers. It not a scientific study, its actual research and developement by a major oil company.

    Yes and if you dind't get the point in the beginning its an area WHICH IS ALREADY OPENED.


    They made a discovery in an already leased part of land. The government is forbidding oil companies to drill on lands they have NOT leased when geological surveys have shown oil is there.


    How about a cornell university geologist who says at most 60 billion barrels, which is still only 7-8 years, at best.

    Much oil remains to be tapped below Gulf of Mexico
    Umm....maybe you shoud read a bit more. That it ONLY the northern Gulf of Mexico. Hello....we have oil on the east and west Coast of America which the study I posted shows.


    you do understand these oil companies arent charging themselves $4 a gallon right?
    Do you have any understanding of this industry?


    They realize that they found our breaking point, people are starting to drive less, now they'll back the prices down to something thats still high, but we'll think its a deal after all these high prices. Its a conditioning.
    Oh yeah, they will back down prices. It called supply and demand and guess what happened when OPEC said they were going to raise production last week. The price went up...yeah they are doing a GREAT job at lowering it.



    becasuse the retail isnt profitable anymore, those gas stations will still be around, they just arent goin to be company owned anymore. Big difference, their not leaving the retail biz all together, they're just selling the store fronts, they'll still be selling them oil though.
    If if costs more to refine and 3rd parties still have to buy it from them, do you think they will buy more or less?

    So if the oil companies can't make money off of gas someone else will? Yeeeeaaahhh.....


    Once again, yes its a fact, they are making more money now that ever in their history. I dont care what department their making it from, their still making it.
    Yes, and making money is so bad.


    Not really concerned about stock price, another number based on speculation, and investors who own e-trade accounts and think watching jim cramer makes them warren buffet.

    That just shows how completely and utterly clueless you really are about this industry.
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  16. Quote Originally Posted by jmh80 View Post
    What the hell??

    Did you see the size of the Jack field Chevron found last year?

    Helluva lot more than 2 years worth of crude.

    Jesus.
    Sorry, you're wrong. It can't be.
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  17. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    My argument is that im going to be alive, hopefully, longer than 7 more years. that would be 5 years to get the legislation passed, drill for it, process it, and make it into my gas tank. and the possibility of 2 years of oil, even with the fields that they know are there, they cant be for certain the viability of them as reliable sources.

    Its your type of mentality that got us in this situation 30 years ago.

    You won't wait 5 years but expect the American public to invest 150 billion in tax money that might make a dent 30 years form now. Great logic you have...


    People like you will never be happy though because if we had electric cars you would complain about the electric companies making too much money. I guess when were all in horse and buggies you might be happy....

    And yes, i feel guaranteed finds in recent years trumps a theoretical 66-115billion. Even best case scenario lets say your right...115 billion barrels, at our currrent consumption levels we would be done with it in less than 15 years. Ill be alive longer than that to. So unless your planning on handing the problem over to your children, and grand children this needs to be dealt with now.
    Umm....that's if we used 100% of it without importing anything. Once again, you show how much you know about business.


    If you actually got off the green high horse you could actually see that if we drilled and sold that supply we could pay for every technological advance you want...but no, the sand floor can't be disturbed.
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  18. Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    I guess when were all in horse and buggies you might be happy.
    Like a pig in slop.

  19. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    Like a pig in slop.
    Great response.

    The multi-post diatribes are typical of knowledge of the oil and gas industry.

    Soup is right - your type of thinking is what got us here and has millions of people railing on whatever "logic" they believe.

    These various alternative fuels for mass transportation won't appear overnight to the millions of Americans that use cars. Sure - fund R&D on the next version, but don't sit by idle waiting on OPEC to drill more wells.
    I assure you that is exactly what we will be doing by continuing this retarded ban on drilling.
    Hell let the Cubans take all the crude in the straights of Florida. We deserve it with all the retarded, misguided thinking in Congress.
    Good lord.

  20. Quote Originally Posted by thesinner View Post
    The reason oil companies are making more money is because gasoline consumption has been going up at an annual rate of billions of gallons.
    The retail market margins have fallen from 30% to around 10% leaving the bulk of their profits to be derived from non-retail sales which still get 30%+ profitablility.

    And yes by owning a car i am part of the problem, not the solution. That doesnt mean that i will vote for a quick fix that just delays the inevitable. And untill the day we're forced to find alternatives, people will continue to look for substitutes for solutions, they will look for something that they believe will help them short term, while totally ignoring the larger issue. Sustainable fuel sources at reasonable cost.

  21. Quote Originally Posted by jmh80 View Post
    Helluva lot more than 2 years worth of crude.
    Thats a some convincing proof you've provided.

    Quote Originally Posted by jmh80 View Post
    Soup is right - your type of thinking is what got us here.
    My type of thinking? That oil is a relic from years past when environmental conerns, cost, and sustainability were not an issue?

    What got us here is people that think that it is a good idea to drill in ANWR so that we have more oil to feed the industrial complex while totally ignoring how were being raped.

    Or how we should drill in the gulf, use it as a patch to get us through untill this generation dies, leaving the solution to the next poor saps.

    Look, i am of the opinion that this society, along with the industrial complex, is just memetics anyways. So nothing you guys have to say surprises me one bit. But i am willing to dicuss this non the less. It is through open comunication that you get the best insight into a persons belief system.

  22. Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    .

    You won't wait 5 years but expect the American public to invest 150 billion in tax money that might make a dent 30 years form now. Great logic you have...

    If you actually got off the green high horse you could actually see that if we drilled and sold that supply we could pay for every technological advance you want...but no, the sand floor can't be disturbed.
    150 billion? 30 years? You must have been talking too dave...where did you get those numbers?

    And i have yet to specify the technological advances that i want to see.

  23. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    The retail market margins have fallen from 30% to around 10% leaving the bulk of their profits to be derived from non-retail sales which still get 30%+ profitablility.

    And yes by owning a car i am part of the problem, not the solution. That doesnt mean that i will vote for a quick fix that just delays the inevitable. And untill the day we're forced to find alternatives, people will continue to look for substitutes for solutions, they will look for something that they believe will help them short term, while totally ignoring the larger issue. Sustainable fuel sources at reasonable cost.
    Who said anything about a quick fix?

    Drilling for alternative sources can ease the economic issue, while alternatives are being developed.

    It would be naive to think that everyone will just stop driving cars overnight. A change is something that is going to take decades to do. In the meantime, I think it would be nice not to have a shortage of gasoline.

  24. Quote Originally Posted by thesinner View Post
    Who said anything about a quick fix?

    Drilling for alternative sources can ease the economic issue, while alternatives are being developed.


    He doens't understand this. He doesn't undersand the concept that investors go where the money is. Right now, its commodities. If the US government came out and said we would drill, investors would run to the hills because they know more supply will be coming. He thinks in terms of now when investors think in terms of years. Thats why solar, wind, and natural gas companies are taking off....now...not when its in full force.


    The simple announcement we're drilling and the lifting of regulations would send the price plummeting and shake every investor and financial institution holding oil out of the system. He doesn't get it, and never will. He regurgitates environmental and liberal talking points and never traded an oil contract in his life. He doesn't listen to those in the industry...he learns his facts from the AP and whatever news orginizations picks it up.

    It would be naive to think that everyone will just stop driving cars overnight. A change is something that is going to take decades to do. In the meantime, I think it would be nice not to have a shortage of gasoline.
    That makes too much sense. As you can see he would be a pig in slop if we all we're driving horse and buggies. They want anything co2 related eliminated so everyone can sit around fires and smoke em peace pipes.
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  25. Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    He doesn't listen to those in the industry...he learns his facts from the AP and whatever news orginizations picks it up.

    so everyone can sit around fires and smoke em peace pipes.

    True, I listen to reports containing facts. Not industry bias.

    And what a tragedy that would be if the world was at peace....

  26. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    150 billion? 30 years? You must have been talking too dave...where did you get those numbers?
    Obama

    And i have yet to specify the technological advances that i want to see.

    Yeah, at 23 you've really seen a lot.
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  27. Quote Originally Posted by thesinner View Post
    Who said anything about a quick fix?

    Drilling for alternative sources can ease the economic issue, while alternatives are being developed.

    Oil anywhere in the world in a quick fix. i dont care if you want to dig in the gulf, off the coast of maine, southern california, or alaska. We cannot sustain our economy through oil.

    The alternative sources of energy im refering to are not oil. there is no "drilling for alternative sources". The alternative is to move away from oil. And you think that while there's billions being spent to look for oil that eases everyones mind for a few years that the U.S. will at the same time be investing in non petrol fuel sources? No way, once people get distracted by all this new oil, sustainable energy will be put on the back burner.

  28. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    True, I listen to reports containing facts. Not industry bias.
    So let me get this straight....you beleive an article reported by the AP that came from the oil companies......yet you don't beleive a government report...the same government that bans oil companies from drilling.

    No wonder you are severely confused.

    And what a tragedy that would be if the world was at peace....
    You would complain about something.
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  29. Quote Originally Posted by futurepilot View Post
    Oil anywhere in the world in a quick fix. i dont care if you want to dig in the gulf, off the coast of maine, southern california, or alaska. We cannot sustain our economy through oil.
    Seriously, you are the last person that should talk about anything related to the economy.



    The alternative sources of energy im refering to are not oil. there is no "drilling for alternative sources". The alternative is to move away from oil. And you think that while there's billions being spent to look for oil that eases everyones mind for a few years that the U.S. will at the same time be investing in non petrol fuel sources? No way, once people get distracted by all this new oil, sustainable energy will be put on the back burner.

    Its quite obvious you don't follow the energy markets and the unbelievable boom solar, wind and battery companies have experienced in the last 10 years.


    Everyone knows oil is unsustainable....its the reason the free market will reward the companies that bring new technology to market.

    Then those companies will bethe new "oil companies" and I will bet anything you will complain about their record profits as well.
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  30. Quote Originally Posted by Soup Nazi View Post
    Obama

    Yeah, at 23 you've really seen a lot.
    I may not have seen as much as someone whose only 10 yrs older than me, but at least im not listening to Barack Obama. The man is a joke, at best.
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