[Bering C]

USGS survey puts Anwr at approx 10.4 billion barrels, I've heard larger #'s stated on local newscast either way thats enough to think about, only problem is do you really think any of that oil will stay domestic? As it is we (in AK) pay more for fuel than most places diesel is up to $5.33 now (there is a refinery less than 100 miles from my town) and i don't think its going down anytime soon. When the minister of Opec states that according to supply and demand oil should be about $70 per barrel and now he says it could go as high as $175 a barrel, its all a game to the players that control the oil, case in point Exxon and the Supreme circus ruling last week. It's all lip service from the Bush administration on down & we are over the barrel.

[timmmah]

So if the government allows offshore drilling than what company in their right mind is gonna pump it out and sell a product worth $125 a barrel for anything less than $125 a barrel? Our government? Yeah right, the same government that makes claims of $50,000 toilet seat expenditures is just gonna give away cheap gas. Think again, Mccain is only blowing campain smoke up our tailpipes.

[Kruger]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

That "proof" that your applauding is an outdated reference to possible oil that they may be able to use.

Please post whatever references you have to refute my, already proven by the oil companies themselves, assertion.

Yes, possible and for the most part a given to most geological experts. The only problem is companies are FORBIDDEN TO FIND OUT.


SO that's you whole argument. There might be some there and we think that in lieu of the environmental issues we think oil companies shouldn't even be allowed to find out because we might disturb the ocean floor. Wow.


Real great strategy there.


The number you posted are the guaranteed finds that could be tapped probably within a year to two years because the infrastructure is already present. All they would have to do is move the platforms which by most accounts would take about a full year to be up and running and pumping oil.

[Kruger]

Originally Posted by timmmah

So if the government allows offshore drilling than what company in their right mind is gonna pump it out and sell a product worth $125 a barrel for anything less than $125 a barrel? Our government? Yeah right, the same government that makes claims of $50,000 toilet seat expenditures is just gonna give away cheap gas. Think again, Mccain is only blowing campain smoke up our tailpipes.

Obviously you don't trade oil or know the margins of the oil companies. When the price goes up there margins go DOWN. When they have record profits they have record expenses. But that's ok, because if you really want to go down the route you suggest, get ready for $9/gallon of gallon for the next 10 years while your tax money get spent on "research".

[Kruger]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

You would be hard pressed to find a major oil company thats not vertically integrated, the price of oil that you see paraded across tickers on news stations in not reflective of the oil that was used to make the gas in my car right now.

Really? I didnt know that


Thats because most comapnies can't pass the 100% increase in oil to the customer. So what happens then...they don't make as much.

An investment group holding commodities has little to do with actualcost. The cost of open market oil is not directly related to the actual cost of oil/gas. Its an immaginary number created by investment firms and hysteria in the media.

Really and by what trading expertise did you come by this because last time I wanted to buy a couple futures contracts the price was reflected on the ask/bid. The largest companies that use oil purchase oil in futures market to lock in the price. SO when those large companies take delivery 6 months later you actually think the price isn't reflective of supply/demand?

Why don't you ask Southwest airlines how they are doing with their hedging.

Then ask the entire airlines industry why they going under then tell them the price is imaginary.

That would be like McDonalds raising their prices because corn or chicken went up, its not relative. McDonalds, much like most oil companies, is vertically integrated. They are not dependant on outside sources for the bulk of their supply.

Completely false. They are hedged with past futures prices or locked in prices that usually spand about 6 months. And last time I checked, Mcdonalds did raise prices, just in China. Same with General Mills and every other company in which margins are going down because of commodity prices. Prices have went up across the board.

And that study you posted was done in 2001. Heres just one i found, theres many more, its common knowledge.

Oil companies see big Gulf of Mexico discovery - Oil & energy - MSNBC.com

That's not a study, that's an article talking about small leased sections of land that oil companies already have access too. The study I posted takes into account the lands that are blocked from oil companies (by legislation) and they can't even test drill to find out the quantities available. That's the problem..the government won't even allow companies to test drill or even find out whats available when every geological survey shows there are massive amounts there. East Coast, West Coast, Gulf of Mexico...do you think oil is only in the Gulf?

If you are going to actually research an area in which I trade, please go a bit further than MSNBC and the small amounts of already leased land available. But then again what do you expect from MSNBC....

What the are you talking about oil margins go down? Oil companies have been the most profitable EVER in recent years. I cant honestly fathom how you would think that oil companies arent making record profits right now.

In recent years when a barrel of oil was $70. When the price goes parabolic, there operating costs go up...drastically. You do understand it takes oil to refine gasoline right?

You do understand it takes oil and energy to drill right?

What they drill today has been sold for months already and waiting for shipment so when they are locked in at $100 a barrel but their energy and shipping costs are working on a market in which energy has risen 20% do you think they are making less or more money. DO you think Opec raising production and saying its speculators causing the problem is because they want the price to go up?

"In the United States, refining margins were down at the end of December about a third from their peak in 2007, according to a report from Bloomberg News. BP, the British petroleum giant, announced this month that lower U.S. refining margins helped contribute to a fourth-quarter refining and marketing loss of $1.8 billion. Refining margins also have been hurting Exxon and another big U.S. oil company, Chevron."


Why don't you ask why Exxon is getting out of the retail gasoline business and why don't you tell me why the largest integrated oil stocks (Western oil companies) haven't climbed in the same fashion the price of oil has. Because everyone doing valuations on these companies know their margins and profits can't sustain this parabolic climb in the price of oil.

These companies make the most when the price of crude is $60-80 a barrel. Their profit margins are going to go from around 10% to 8% with the current price.


When oil goes up 100%, but gasoline only goes up 30%, you think they make more money?

Exxon to exit U.S. retail gas business - Forbes.com


XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation - Google Finance

BP - BP plc (ADR) - Google Finance

CVX - Chevron Corporation - Google Finance


There are your 3 big Western Oil Companies. What direction is their stock price going form 2004?

http://www.petda.org/documents/indus..._Feb172008.pdf

[Kruger]

Originally Posted by Bering C

USGS survey puts Anwr at approx 10.4 billion barrels, I've heard larger #'s stated on local newscast either way thats enough to think about, only problem is do you really think any of that oil will stay domestic? As it is we (in AK) pay more for fuel than most places diesel is up to $5.33 now (there is a refinery less than 100 miles from my town) and i don't think its going down anytime soon. When the minister of Opec states that according to supply and demand oil should be about $70 per barrel and now he says it could go as high as $175 a barrel, its all a game to the players that control the oil, case in point Exxon and the Supreme circus ruling last week. It's all lip service from the Bush administration on down & we are over the barrel.

Exxon's refining margins are down. The Supreme Court is not ruled by Bush (as he lost a case two weeks ago about prisoners in Gitmo).

Most US refineries are not setup to produce diesel. Its a very small percentage.

Now, we could build more refineries to do this...oh wait..no we can't. Congress has blocked that. The environmentalists don't like it.

When we go and buy that 87-93 octane, China buys diesel. Now we could drill, refine that oil into diesel and sell it..oh wait...Congress has blocked that too.

[futurepilot]

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

you whole argument.


The number you posted are the guaranteed finds that could be tapped probably within a year to two years because the infrastructure is already present. All they would have to do is move the platforms which by most accounts would take about a full year to be up and running and pumping oil.

My argument is that im going to be alive, hopefully, longer than 7 more years. that would be 5 years to get the legislation passed, drill for it, process it, and make it into my gas tank. and the possibility of 2 years of oil, even with the fields that they know are there, they cant be for certain the viability of them as reliable sources.

And yes, i feel guaranteed finds in recent years trumps a theoretical 66-115billion. Even best case scenario lets say your right...115 billion barrels, at our currrent consumption levels we would be done with it in less than 15 years. Ill be alive longer than that to. So unless your planning on handing the problem over to your children, and grand children this needs to be dealt with now.

[futurepilot]

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

Thats because most comapnies can't pass the 100% increase in oil to the customer. So what happens then...they don't make as much.

Your right, 40billion dollars isnt that much.

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

6 months later you actually think the price isn't reflective of supply/demand?

I didnt say 6 months later, i specifically said the gas that was in my tank right now.

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

They are hedged with past futures prices or locked in prices that usually spand about 6 months. And last time I checked, Mcdonalds did raise prices, just in China.

True thats why southwest has stayed the only profitable airlines during this whole debacle.

And i dont live in china. I can only reference things in my market.

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

If you are going to actually research an area in which I trade, please go a bit further than MSNBC and the small amounts of already leased land available. But then again what do you expect from MSNBC....

First, slight clarification, its a AP article merely being presented by MSNBC, it's not like some company writer is doing it. The information contained in the article is free market, quoting chevrons own researchers. It not a scientific study, its actual research and developement by a major oil company.

How about a cornell university geologist who says at most 60 billion barrels, which is still only 7-8 years, at best.

http://www.scienceblog.com/community.../20031974.html

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

You do understand it takes oil and energy to drill right?

you do understand these oil companies arent charging themselves $4 a gallon right?

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

DO you think Opec raising production and saying its speculators causing the problem is because they want the price to go up?

They realize that they found our breaking point, people are starting to drive less, now they'll back the prices down to something thats still high, but we'll think its a deal after all these high prices. Its a conditioning.

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

Why don't you ask why Exxon is getting out of the retail gasoline business

make the most when the price of crude is $60-80 a barrel.

becasuse the retail isnt profitable anymore, those gas stations will still be around, they just arent goin to be company owned anymore. Big difference, their not leaving the retail biz all together, they're just selling the store fronts, they'll still be selling them oil though.

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

you think they make more money?

Once again, yes its a fact, they are making more money now that ever in their history. I dont care what department their making it from, their still making it.

Originally Posted by Soup Nazi

There are your 3 big Western Oil Companies. What direction is their stock price going form 2004?

Not really concerned about stock price, another number based on speculation, and investors who own e-trade accounts and think watching jim cramer makes them warren buffet.

[jmh80]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

Offshore drilling is a waste of time, money and the environment. There's at best 2 yrs worth of oil in the gulf. and its not like the oil companys will flood the market with cheap gas, prices will stay the same, it will just delay the enevitable. When we must run our cars without petroleum

What the hell??

Did you see the size of the Jack field Chevron found last year?

Helluva lot more than 2 years worth of crude.

Jesus.

[jmh80]

Originally Posted by futurepilot

you do understand these oil companies arent charging themselves $4 a gallon right?

First line - go read up on incremental economics. Then you'll understand. Otherwise - don't make statements about what gas is valued at in a refinery.
(Hence - it's the last increment, or $4/gallon.)

Your assumptions need the proper distinctions.

[thesinner]

dude, no need to drill on the coast.

I know of a few places we could go for oil. It would not only be cheaper and more bountiful, but it would do American society a favor as a whole:

New Jersey and Long Island.

I don't mean to suggest genocide, but rather a de-guido-ification process, in which the vast amounts of oil can be extracted using some sort of aliphatic leaching process.

I mean the guys in this pic alone are estimated to have enough oil to fuel 300 SUV's for 3,000 miles.

[jmh80]

Originally Posted by thesinner

dude, no need to drill on the coast.

I know of a few places we could go for oil. It would not only be cheaper and more bountiful, but it would do American society a favor as a whole:

New Jersey and Long Island.

I don't mean to suggest genocide, but rather a de-guido-ification process, in which the vast amounts of oil can be extracted using some sort of aliphatic leaching process.

I mean the guys in this pic alone are estimated to have enough oil to fuel 300 SUV's for 3,000 miles.

LMAO!