Global Warming Causes Stronger Hurricanests
- 09-27-2005, 10:06 PM
Global Warming Causes Stronger Hurricanests
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the truth and it's going to get worst.
click the link to read more>>>>>>
- 09-27-2005, 10:36 PM
it all goes in cycles. this link will provide you with information show how odd the earth can be IE a storm that reach NJ with over 200mph winds etc... i do not and am not trying to argue the aspect of global warming.. it happens.. if humans are doing it or not, it will happen anyway.. we have to keep in mind that hurricanes are hitting our pockets more because we idiot humans are building more on shore lines prone to these storms
anyway.. here is the link http://www.hurricaneville.com/historic.html
09-27-2005, 10:46 PM
Well, a growing number of scientist say different and I rather go with their thoughts on this subject. I remember watching the nature channel, regarding Global warming about a couple years back and I have to say...that show convince me. The weather is changing all over the planet.
Originally Posted by MaynardMeek
09-27-2005, 11:00 PM
i agree, it is going on.. look at nasa photos of our ice caps as well as pics of our ocean water's temps... but i still have YET to grasp that this wouldn't be happening if humans were not causing it ...
09-27-2005, 11:28 PM
09-28-2005, 01:46 AM
Ahhh the monster of Global Warming that feeds on everyones fears.
August 20, 2005
There She Blows
by Patrick J. Michaels
Patrick J. Michaels is Cato Institute senior fellow for environmental studies and author of Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media.
Given the recent claims that hurricanes are getting dramatically worse because of global warming, it's too bad we’ve already exhausted the letter "G" for this hurricane season. "Gasbag" would have been a pretty good moniker for the next storm.
In case you’ve missed the hype, MIT's Kerry Emanuel has a paper in the online version of Nature magazine saying that hurricanes are becoming dramatically more powerful as a result of global warming.
Merely venturing into the discussion of hurricanes and global warming is more dangerous than most tropical cyclones. About Emanuel's article, William Gray of Colorado State University -- the guy who issues the annual hurricane forecast that grabs headlines every summer -- told the Boston Globe, "It's a terrible paper, one of the worst I've ever looked at."
There's also nastiness if you say hurricanes aren't getting worse. A month ago, University of Colorado’s Roger Pielke, Jr., posted a paper that was accepted in the Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society concluding there is little if any sign of global warming in hurricane patterns. In a pre-emptive strike, Kevin Trenberth from the federally funded National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, told the local newspaper, "I think he [Pielke] should withdraw his article. This is a shameful article."
Six months earlier, Christopher Landsea of the National Hurricane Research Laboratory, another federal entity, quit the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Landsea is probably the world's most respected hurricane scientist. He was furious that Rajenda Pauchari, director of the panel, condoned Trenberth's statements that hurricanes were worsening because of global warming.
What is going on here? Nothing unusual. Behavior like this takes place every day at faculty meetings across academia. But global warming and hurricanes are hot topics right now, so the bickering spills over into the press.
What is unusual is the especially shoddy nature of the current scientific review process on global warming papers.
Consider the recent Nature article. If hurricanes had doubled in power in the last few decades as Emanuel claims, the change would be obvious; you wouldn't need a weatherman to know which way this wind was blowing. All of these feuding scientists would have agreed on the facts long ago.
Damages caused by doubling the strength of hurricanes would be massive and increasing dramatically. Figures on this are pretty easy to come by, at least in the United States. The insured value of property from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine -- our hurricane prone Atlantic Coast -- is greater than a year of our Gross Domestic Product. If hurricanes had actually doubled in power, the losses in the insurance industry would be catastrophic.
Pielke has studied this, and his work is well known. Hurricanes are causing greater dollar damages because more and more people are building increasingly expensive beachfront monstrosities that have financially appreciated during the recent real-estate bubble. Account for these and there is no significant change in hurricane expenses along our coast. Illinois climatologist Stanley Changnon has also studied this for non-hurricane weather damage over the entire country with similar results.
Pielke told me that, "analysis of hurricane damage over the past century shows no trend in hurricane destructiveness, once the data are adjusted to account for the dramatic growth along the nation's coasts."
You would think that reviewers of Emanuel’s paper at Nature would have thought to ask whether, in fact, there was evidence for increasingly powerful storms.
But they didn't. There is just no incentive in the scientific community to kill the remarkably fertile global warming goose, a beast that feeds on public fears.
The federal outlay on climate research is now $4.2 billion per year, roughly the same amount given to the National Cancer Institute. The climate research community sees a grave threat when research shows there's no threat from the climate. So papers that hawk climate disaster get superficial reviews and uncritical headlines, while those that argue otherwise are "shameful."
This article appeared on Reason.com on August 17, 2005.
09-28-2005, 02:12 AM
BS...hurricanes have been going on for millions of years. Ice caps melting is nothing new. Remeber the Ice Age? no cars around then.
The lefties are just trying to capitalize on tragedy (as they always do) to further their agenda.
09-28-2005, 02:27 AM
Agreed, Category 5s have been going since the begining of time... they didnt just start recently.Originally Posted by The Doberman
09-28-2005, 03:25 AM
Well, yes...some scientists believe that global warming is effecting weather right now, but many do not. I get to hear both sides of the story all the time...Originally Posted by QUICKRYDE
I personally believe our rate of CO2 production is a problem; CO2 is the chemical largely responsible for the debate over global warming. Now, the problem is, is the inrease in CO2 enough to make a difference?
Even though the percentage of CO2 molecules in the atmosphere has risen dramatically, that does not mean it is ENOUGH to cause global warming. The percentage of CO2 (as a part of our atmosphere) is VEEEEEEEEEERY SMALL.
This is where the debate lies.
Yes, an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere WILL trap in heat from the sun, which will lead to this global warming phenomenon WHEN it gets to a critical point. BUT, has it happened yet? Is there enough excess CO2 in our atmosphere to produce this phenomenon? These are the questions that we cannot yet answer.
I fully believe we are at least on our way to a average earth temperature hot enough to start causing major problems. However, i also KNOW that our Earths weather has cyclical patterns.
Right now, i'm not convinced that these hurricanes are a result of global warming as opposed to normal cyclical patterns.
I.E. We have 1.5 months left in the gulf-coasts storm season, and we are 3 MAJOR storms from breaking a 76 year old major storm record of 22 storms. So, techically, these storms are not abnormal. And, we had a season as bad or worse almost 100 years ago, when the increase in CO2 was negligible and global warming was 100% a non-issue.
Right now global warming cannot be proven to be the cause for this phenomenon, especially considering we have similar events on record within a century--keep in mind, a century is a very short amount of time on our planet.
I'm not saying its not the cause, just that you cannot jump to conclusions because nothing as of late is completely abnormal. And, the global warming issue is still a problem regardless, because if we don't stop burning fossil fuels (how we get most of our excess CO2) we're going to eventually have a problem--that's a given.
09-28-2005, 07:07 AM
There really haven't been that many cat 5's in the last 100 years only 3 have ever made landfall, I think but where this is a normal warming cycle or some alittle bit more unnatural.. something is causing the Gulf to be warmer than it usually isOriginally Posted by DAdams91982
09-28-2005, 08:31 AM
Then why dont we attribute any weather phenomenon to the 10 minute earth quake that not only caused the Tsunami last december, not only cause seismic activity through the earth, but also caused a few centimeter change in the earths orbit?Originally Posted by Matthew D
09-28-2005, 08:46 AM
09-28-2005, 09:37 AM
09-28-2005, 01:48 PM
09-28-2005, 03:46 PM
09-28-2005, 05:23 PM
The facts to back up what Matt is saying about the 3 cat 5's.Originally Posted by Matthew D
What was Rita when she made landfall? Tropical storm or Hurricane?
09-28-2005, 05:39 PM
Bush did it! There aren`t enoguh no-bid contracts left in Iraq sooooo... add some here to hand to your buddies!Originally Posted by Beelzebub
Don`t blame me for this I am just repeating it!
09-28-2005, 06:10 PM
I believe Rita was a Category 3 hurricane when she made landfall.Originally Posted by JonesersRX7
Katrina was a category 4 when she hit.
09-28-2005, 06:18 PM
09-28-2005, 06:20 PM
Contracts that need bids take too long to be done.. these no bid contracts are given to a company / or many that can get the job done... and also if you think its all just bush feeding his own.. the second company that got a no bid deal for this recovery is in league with the democrate gov of L.A.
sometimes red tape is good, other times, it should be avoided IE in situations of disaster and war
09-28-2005, 10:52 PM
Anyone who believes that we are the cause global warming needs to explain the global warming on mars. Anyone who believes that a consensus of scientists constitutes proof needs to explain why pellagra and, especially, eugenics are exempt from this logic. Anyone who believes that "greenhouse gasses" should still be controlled, for whatever reason, needs to figure out what we should do about volcanoes. Anyone who can't figure out what to do about volcanoes, but still thinks we should regulate ourselves because we can, needs to make a concrete value proposition. Otherwise, you're just blowing smoke.
09-29-2005, 12:05 AM
Well...there are a few differences.
The CFC's that were killing our atmosphere are different. I believe chlorine is the destructor of ozone, and volcanoes release MUCH more chlorine with every reaction....BUT that chlorine doesn't make it into the ozone, as it does with the CFC's.
So, that is a very different scenario.
Global warming can be caused naturally or induced by humans. Just because it can occur naturally (due to some phenomenon), doesn't mean that a human induced phenomenon cannot occur.
In this instance, the CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere eventually WILL cause global warming, but that doesn't mean its happened already.i personally don't believe it IS in the works, so to speak, but rather, is on the way.
09-29-2005, 12:37 AM
Nyet. From the article I linked:Originally Posted by kwyckemynd00
The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide. It injected large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere—more than any eruption since that of Krakatoa in 1883. The aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze over the following months. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), and ozone destruction increased substantially.
And my other points still stand.
09-29-2005, 03:09 AM
09-29-2005, 03:32 AM
Reaping the Hurricane
by Patrick J. Michaels
Patrick J. Michaels is senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute and author of Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media (2004).
Dr. Christopher Landsea, a scientist at the Hurricane Research Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce and one of the world's foremost experts on hurricanes, has publicly resigned from authorship of an upcoming United Nations report on climate change. Landsea charged that the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is "both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound."
He has a point. The IPCC is more of a political body than a scientific authority. Its members are selected by their respective governments and approved by the UN Secretariat. This is not an unbiased, blind process.
Remember those press conferences last fall where esteemed scientists blamed the severity of the 2004 hurricane season on global warming? One of them was another federal employee, Kevin Trenberth. According to Landsea, Trenberth hasn't "performed any research on hurricane variability." Nonetheless, he is the U.N.'s designated "Lead Author" for the chapter of the report that discusses hurricanes and global warming, and as a result would supervise Landsea's contributions.
According to Landsea, "Given Dr. Trenberth's role as the IPCC's Lead Author responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity."
Indeed, there is absolutely no evidence that hurricane frequency or severity has increased because of global warming. In fact, the only detectable change in Atlantic hurricanes is a decline in average maximum wind speed, as shown in Landsea's own published scientific writing.
Trenberth also advocates the position that global warming will make "El Nino" stronger, with very little scientific evidence. El Ninos are periodic reversals of Pacific trade winds that change storm tracks thousands of miles away. They also destroy Atlantic hurricanes. If global warming actually did make El Ninos more frequent or stronger, hurricane intensity should decrease.
Landsea appealed to the head of the UN's climate panel, Rajenda Pachauri, to uphold genuine scientific inquiry.
He should have known better. Pachauri penned the foreword to the 2004 report, "Up in Smoke," distributed by environmental activists including Greenpeace and the World Wildlife Fund. Referring to hurricanes, it said "in a world in which global warming is already happening, such severe weather events are likely to be more frequent, and extreme."
Pachauri dismissed Landsea's complaint out of hand, which led to the scientist's principled resignation.
If elements of this story trigger a sense of déjê vu, then readers have been paying attention. There was a minor stir last fall when two government scientists predicted a slight (6 percent) increase in hurricane strength over the next century, due to global warming.
They arrived at this prediction by using a computer model that assumed carbon dioxide will leach into the atmosphere at a rate that is twice what has been observed in recent decades. The model fails miserably when it attempts to forecast hurricanes in the real world, because it assumes no changes in hurricane environments as the planet warms. Critical scientists knew about the model's shortcomings, but they held their peace.
This is becoming a pattern. Scientists, or people claiming the mantle of science, advance terribly flawed claims that the sky is falling; climate scientists who understand that this is false say next to nothing.
There are several reasons. Just as medical doctors care about human suffering, environmental scientists are often philosophically concerned about what they judge to be environmental degradation. Neither concern is "scientific" in the sense that it is concerned with testing theories against available evidence, but they do influence the way scientists behave.
Then there's the money. Climatology used to be very un-cool, and largely un-funded. It was an impoverished backwater until global warming came along. Now it's a tremendous sink hole for tax dollars.
The next federal budget is likely to propose around $4 billion for research on climate change. That money will only be allocated if global warming is presented as a severe threat to our health and well-being on the level of AIDS or cancer. So we end up with under-funded voices of sanity and a lot of well-funded Chicken Little-types.
So far, this level of distortion has carried no cost to the prestige of the dissemblers. The United Nations now passes itself off as the world's authority on the effects of climate change and tropical cyclones while keeping a propagandist on the payroll. Perhaps President Bush, who ultimately must approve U.S. members for the panel, should approve none, effectively withdrawing his government from this pseudoscientific charade.
09-29-2005, 03:45 AM
Debunking the Latest Hurricane Hype
by Patrick J. Michaels
Patrick J. Michaels is a senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute and author of Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media (2004).
Last week, the New York Times delivered the worrisome news that a team of scientists has concluded that maximum hurricane winds will increase 6 percent by the 2080's, thanks to global warming. I was very upset to read that news, but not because I'm afraid my great-grandchildren will get blown away. My concern is what those scientists' work says about the state of climate science.
The researchers reached their conclusions using a series of climate models called General Circulation Models. They assumed that the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide--the main global warming gas--will increase by 1 percent per year, compounded yearly. That would warm the ocean, which would create slightly stronger storms.
But there's a problem: Any atmospheric scientist who is worth his or her salt knows that atmospheric carbon dioxide is not increasing at that rate and has not been doing so for decades. And that makes a real difference in the modeling results.
The increase has been about four-tenths of a percent per year, averaged over the last 30 years--not 1 percent. Charitably, throw in another tenth of a percent because of other human "greenhouse" emissions (though the two major ones, chlorofluorocarbons and methane, are declining or holding steady). That means that the researchers' models are envisioning twice the actual increase in carbon dioxide as has been occurring for decades.
The reason that carbon dioxide is growing so slowly is because the world is gradually becoming more energy-efficient as its people become more affluent. That results in both a reduction in per-capita emissions and a reduction in the number of "capits" that are born, as rich folks have fewer kids. Among big countries, this trend started in the United States. It is now spreading globally as the enriching world buys more-efficient cars and power plants.
This trend isn't going to change anytime soon. That means the growth rate in carbon dioxide over the next few decades is likely to be the same as the rate for the last few. Using the more realistic rate delays the time that hurricane winds will increase by 6 percent from the 2080's to the 2180's--175 years from now.
And it's pretty hard to speculate what impact humanity will have on nature over nearly two centuries in time. To understand that, let's go backwards in time 175 years, to 1830, and think about the changes in energy and technology that have occurred since then.
The fact is that, just as folks in 1830 could not possibly imagine the many technological changes we have today (cars, planes, rockets, nuclear bombs, computers and Viagra come to mind), so can we have absolutely no vision of 2185. The only reasonable bet is that it will be dramatically different than today, and our fossil fuel-powered society will seem as remote in the future as one driven by horses and slavery seems remote to us today. So why would anyone make a prediction of what effects humanity will have on the environment some two centuries from now, based on what we're doing today?
Or, in the case of the researchers' exaggerated percentage increase in carbon dioxide, what we're not doing today? That leads to an interesting question: Because carbon dioxide increases have been bouncing around four-tenths of a percent per year for three decades, why do climate modelers insist on using the wrong number? It seems peculiar that people who have the equivalent of doctorates in applied physics (which is what climate science is) would somehow be perfectly happy to do something they know is wrong.
I began asking that question at scientific meetings a decade ago. At that time, I asked Kevin Trenberth, a highly visible atmospheric scientist from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, who often testifies to Congress on climate issues. He told me it was done because it was "convention."
That answer doesn't set well with me, because it's awfully easy to program a computer to increase a variable by half a percent instead of 1 percent per year.
That leads to the final, nagging question. There are literally hundreds of scientific papers out there in which climate models use this wrong number. Each of those papers gets sent to three outside peer-reviewers. The fact that 1 percent continues to be used only means one thing: when it comes to global warming, hundreds of scientists must prefer convention to truth.
But why? Is it because, when the real numbers are put in, there's no story for the New York Times to report?
This article was published on Foxnews.com, October 7, 2004.
09-29-2005, 03:47 AM
Sowing the Hurricane Whirlwind
by Patrick J. Michaels
Patrick J. Michaels, senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute, is the author of Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media, to be released in October 2004.
News loves hurricanes. They usually form far, far away, providing at least a week of stories. And they often start with a bang. Down in the tropical Atlantic, young ones bomb out to amazingly low barometric pressures and outrageous sustained winds. Hurricane Ivan's lowest pressure, for example, would cause the needle on you home barometer to spin around twice. The resultant "eyewall" winds were a 20-mile wide tornado.
It's incredible stuff. But they usually weaken considerably by the time they get to the states, owing to our more northerly latitude and the fact that hurricanes don't do well when much of their circulation is over land, which has to happen when they approach North America.
That doesn't stop the hype machine. While we like to count up property damage and losses, no one mentions the fantastic revenue that these storms generate for the media, or that the constant drumbeat of Charley-Frances-Ivan, Charley-Frances-Ivan must have political repercussions.
And so, Tony Blair was just in Washington to visit John Kerry, where he conflated Hurricane Ivan with dreaded global warming.
I like just about everything about Tony Blair. He's smart, affable, and a real friend to a nation that needs some. But he's way off on global warming, and advising Kerry to bail out his campaign with apocalyptic climate hype invites a grilling by the climate truth squad, a rather large body of weather nerds in a weather-fixated country.
Blair's problem is that he listens to his science adviser, Sir David King, who is one of the most ill-informed hawks on climate change on this greening planet. King actually pronounced the goofy global warming flick "The Day After Tomorrow" as scientifically plausible, which should have completely blown away his credibility. Now he claims that this year's hurricane activity is a product of global warming and that warming will make hurricanes worse.
Here's the simplistic argument. Hurricanes require warm water. Global warming means more of that. Therefore, more hurricanes.
The fact is that there's plenty of warm water for hurricanes every year--virtually the entire tropical ocean is hot enough, and yet there are only about 10 per year in the Atlantic. The real research question on these storms is not why there are so many but, rather, why there are so few, given the massive expanse of warm water available to them.
And here's the real scientific inconvenience in Blair's story. The planet warmed slightly--much less than forecast by people like King--in the last half of the last century, but while that happened, maximum winds in Atlantic hurricanes DECLINED significantly.
Yep. As shown by scientist Chris Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, maximum winds measured by hurricane-hunter aircraft over the last 50 years have declined significantly.
Further, there's a logical (if lawyerly) argument that pins this salutary change on global warming. It goes like this: Atlantic hurricanes are much more delicate than their destruction suggests. One thing they cannot tolerate is a west wind blowing into them because it wrecks their symmetry. As a result, their maximum winds decline.
El Niño--another climate hype machine--generates precisely this type of wind over the Atlantic. That's why, in El Nino years, the forecast is for a weak hurricane season.
In the latter part of the last century, there were an unusual number of El Niño years compared to previous decades. Some scientists (like David King) claim that global warming is increasing the frequency of El Nino. But if that's the case, then global warming would be responsible for the decline in maximum hurricane winds.
How much could that be worth? The decline has been about 15 mph since 1950. That's not a small number because the force of a hurricane's wind goes up with the square of the velocity. In the high Category Three/low Four range, this change reduces the power by 25 percent. Given that the U.S. experiences about 15 strong hurricanes every decade, and that the average cost is now about $5 billion for one of those hits, you could, if you buy the El Niño argument (I don't but some others do), thank global warming saving about $13 billion per decade.
These numbers won't stop the hype machine on hurricanes. But you'd think that Great Britain's science adviser would have been sufficiently well informed that he would have kept his prime minister from asking John Kerry to sow the whirlwind.
09-29-2005, 03:47 AM
09-29-2005, 04:00 AM
I just thing that the whole Global Warming thing is over hyped. Is it happening, Sure, but weather has been known to be cyclical, and what is or is going to happen would happen regardless. Man's effect on global warming is SO VERY negligable. The fear just gives more of a reason for people to buy a damn toyota Prius (sp?) over that Ford F350, or Nissan Titan that you really want. Gives reasons to jack the price of gas up, because less would be sold. If today man was consuming just as much gas as in the day of the 10 miles go a gallon carboruator, instead of the 50 MPG Hybrid, I believe gas prices would only rise with the economic inflation, not to the rate of insane adjustments felt today. Look at Europe period... they push the SMALL ass vehicles/ or hybrids like its no ones business... and gas is 1.25 EURO a liter... so about 5 Euro a gallon... or about 6 to 7 bux in US dollars.
09-29-2005, 04:20 AM
Exactly my stance on the issue.
I "know" its happening (in the process), but I doubt its made an impact yet b/c the CO2 increase just isn't as drastic as is necessary yet.
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