Earth Hottest Its Been In 400 Years
- 06-22-2006, 08:15 PM
Earth Hottest Its Been In 400 Years
Study finds strong warming tie to hurricanes
Half of Atlantic temperature increase in 2005 linked to global rise
Hurricane Katrina, seen in this satellite-based visualization as it approached the Gulf Coast last August, was one of 28 named storms in the record 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.
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NOAA via AFP/Getty Images
Global warming accounted for about half of the extra hurricane-fueling warmth in Atlantic waters off the United States in 2005, while natural cycles were smaller factors, according to a study released Thursday by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
"The global warming influence provides a new background level that increases the risk of future enhancements in hurricane activity," co-author Kevin Trenberth wrote in the study.
A statement issued by the center said that the study "contradicts recent claims that natural cycles are responsible for the upturn in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995. It also adds support to the premise that hurricane seasons will become more active as global temperatures rise."
While researchers agree that the warming waters fuel hurricane intensity, they have been uncertain whether Atlantic waters have warmed because of a natural, decades-long cycle, or because of longer-term global warming.
The study found that during much of last year's hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, sea-surface temperatures in Atlantic waters where many hurricanes form were a record 1.7 degrees F above the 1901-1970 average.
Comparing the Atlantic data to worldwide data since the early 20th century, the researchers calculated that global warming explained about 0.8 degrees of this rise.
The 2004-05 El Nino ocean cycle accounted for about 0.4 degrees, they calculated, while the 60-80 year natural cycle was thought to explain less than 0.2 degrees of the increase, according to Trenberth. The remainder is due to year-to-year variability in temperatures.
The center said the researchers "subtracted the global trend from the irregular Atlantic temperatures — in effect, separating global warming from the Atlantic natural cycle."
The results show that the 60-80 year natural cycle "is actually much weaker now than it was in the 1950s, when Atlantic hurricanes were also quite active," the center said.
The researchers stressed that global warming does not guarantee that each year will set records for hurricanes, noting that last year's record was due also to upper-level winds that contributed to hurricane formation.
The study by Trenberth and colleague Dennis Shea will appear in the June 27 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is primarily sponsored by a consortium of universities and the National Science Foundation.
Panel: Earth warmest in 400 years - Environment - MSNBC.com
- 06-23-2006, 11:32 AM
06-23-2006, 12:25 PM
06-23-2006, 12:36 PM
Peer reviewed studies have also appeared in that journal (Wilson, '03 or so) showing solar output increaing on a regular basis, a possible trend that if it extends back further than measured in the study would account for a significant amount of the warming people often say is the result of human activity.
06-23-2006, 12:48 PM
06-23-2006, 12:52 PM
It's due to the massive amount of weed being smoked...
*points at CDB and runs*
You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Jayhawkk again.
06-23-2006, 12:57 PM
Honestly, I think a small part may be due to human activity...but the Earth has gone through massive fluctuations in climate over the past few billion years so I dont see how a slight rise in average temperatures should cause everyone to start screaming and yelling.Peer reviewed studies have also appeared in that journal (Wilson, '03 or so) showing solar output increaing on a regular basis, a possible trend that if it extends back further than measured in the study would account for a significant amount of the warming people often say is the result of human activity.
Some of my favorite movies are the 'Walking with...' series from the Discovery Channel. On one of the DVD's , "Walking With Monsters, Before The Dinosaurs", they talk about a warming shift on the planet where increased volcanic activity causes a massive drought that wiped out 95% of all life on the planet. Now that's serious Palm trees in NY, I wont complain
06-23-2006, 01:38 PM
i cant say it any better than this... but beware.. its rush limbaugh... and though he has been found to be right 96% of the time... some dislike him lol
06-23-2006, 01:41 PM
06-23-2006, 03:17 PM
06-23-2006, 04:07 PM
I live in Ontario, Canada and our winters are getting so mild it's nuts, i remember when i was like 11 or 12 freezing my balls off now you can go with a light sweater if you wanted, plus our summer this year is going to be hot as hell.
06-23-2006, 04:35 PM
06-24-2006, 12:54 AM
Well i'm really used to the cold as it is growing up in Canada, like i'd barely wear a winter jacket as it was but now the winters are getting too warm for my liking, i actually like the cold. But i'm soooooooooo used to the cold that when my brother and i were in Dominican it was almost unbearable at times, i'd have sweat just poring down my face and arms when i was just sitting there, lol.
06-24-2006, 01:09 AM
Yeah, after winter the first few weeks of really hot weather are rough. I like Florida though, go figure.
06-24-2006, 01:14 AM
I love Florida but Dominican was unsually hot when i went, so it was the humidity that killed me, i can take dry heat just not the wet stuff, i get migraines and feel like ****.
06-24-2006, 07:42 PM
What is funny is, this kind of stuff always comes up in the news, IN THE SUMMER! You don't hear 'scientists' and 'experts' talk about global warming or earth heating up, in January!
06-24-2006, 07:49 PM
i personally think you guys take this way too lightly....
this is my opinion, and everyone has there own. some believe its not tied to what humans have done in the past 200 years, but....you really have to think about it....
it took the earth millions of years to grow the rainforests' and other natural habbitats, and in 100 years lots has been done. more buildings are going up more trees are being cut down more animals are dying off...all for money by the way.... and we dont know how long we can go before something HAS to be done. this is all coming from a NON TREE HUGGER point of view too. i just "try" and look at the big picture... i hope someone feels as i do on this matter.
06-24-2006, 08:12 PM
06-25-2006, 12:57 AM
In the big picture the Sahara was once lush and green, massive portions of the US were under a shallow sea, and grass as we know it is a recent phenomena. Somehow with all these massive changes the world didn't end. The big picture is that the Earth has gone through thousands upon thousands upon thousands of massive climate shifts well before SUVs and styrofoam were a part of every day life, and well before humans decided to anything with fossil fuels, hell well before humans existed.Originally Posted by 400runner
The big picture also is that as long as humans have existed there have always been people claiming the world is going to end, starve, get too hot, get too cold, stay too mild, get too wet, get too dry or any other of a number of possible things unless the rest of the world let the privileged enlightened minority run their lives. Be it for moral or environmental reasons people have been claiming man has been destroying the Earth since man knew there was an Earth. Every. Single. Time. They. Were. Wrong. And every single time there was at least some of the population that was, I have to say it, stupid enough to believe them. Perhaps I'd have an easier time grabbing hold of global warming theories if they weren't propounded by people with demonstrable political agendas that were so far to the left they made Marx look like Menken. People with, incidentally a massive ignorance of economics and often times science as well.
Take this for example: if the weather doesn't change, it's due to global warming, as there are forecasts by its proponents which show gradual to no change followed by cataclism. If it gets too cold it's due to global warming, because there are forecasts by its proponents which show a world growing colder due to various problems caused by heating. If it gets too hot it's due to global warming, because there are forecasts by its proponents that show a world gradually to quickly heatin up until we're anothe Venus. So no matter what happens it's due to global warming. Gee, ain't that convenient; everything is evidence for global warming. Makes the 'theory' conveniently hard to falsify. And we'll forget for the moment that the computer models these geniuses use to forecast these weather trends are about as usefull as one sock with a hole in it.
If the Earth is getting warmer the chances that we have anything to do with it are near nil or at the very least far from being proven. If the Earth is getting warmer and we are partly responsible the solutions are so far from what's being recommended it makes no sense to listen to the environmentalists anyway.
06-25-2006, 01:22 AM
Originally Posted by CDB
06-25-2006, 11:02 AM
Just a sample of how far back this crap goes. I'm sure if we could translate cave drawings we'd find evidence that some shamman used a solar eclipse as an excuse to scare the rest of his tribe to death and exact some kind of tax to make things better for them.Originally Posted by The Facism of Environmentalism, by Bernard Switalski
06-25-2006, 11:25 AM
06-25-2006, 01:02 PM
We can only hope. Personally, while I don't bear any ill will towards many if any people, I wouldn't mind seeing a good 90% of the population getting snuffed. Start over, from scratch, pick up the toys that have been left behind and run with it, see what happens.Originally Posted by BigVrunga
06-25-2006, 01:14 PM
06-25-2006, 01:25 PM
I`ve been reading about the Indus Valley culture which existed several 1000 years or so ago.
So it`s not like something new is going on.A possible natural reason for the IVC's decline is connected with climate change: The Indus valley climate grew significantly cooler and drier from about 1800 BCE. A crucial factor may have been the disappearance of substantial portions of the Ghaggar Hakra river system. A tectonic event may have diverted the system's sources toward the Ganges Plain, though there is some uncertainty about the date of this event. Although this particular factor is speculative, and not generally accepted, the decline of the IVC, as with any other civilization, will have been due to a combination of various reasons.
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