Earth Hottest Its Been In 400 Years
- 06-22-2006, 07:15 PM
Earth Hottest Its Been In 400 Years
Study finds strong warming tie to hurricanes
Half of Atlantic temperature increase in 2005 linked to global rise
Hurricane Katrina, seen in this satellite-based visualization as it approached the Gulf Coast last August, was one of 28 named storms in the record 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.
View related photos
NOAA via AFP/Getty Images
Global warming accounted for about half of the extra hurricane-fueling warmth in Atlantic waters off the United States in 2005, while natural cycles were smaller factors, according to a study released Thursday by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
"The global warming influence provides a new background level that increases the risk of future enhancements in hurricane activity," co-author Kevin Trenberth wrote in the study.
A statement issued by the center said that the study "contradicts recent claims that natural cycles are responsible for the upturn in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995. It also adds support to the premise that hurricane seasons will become more active as global temperatures rise."
While researchers agree that the warming waters fuel hurricane intensity, they have been uncertain whether Atlantic waters have warmed because of a natural, decades-long cycle, or because of longer-term global warming.
The study found that during much of last year's hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, sea-surface temperatures in Atlantic waters where many hurricanes form were a record 1.7 degrees F above the 1901-1970 average.
Comparing the Atlantic data to worldwide data since the early 20th century, the researchers calculated that global warming explained about 0.8 degrees of this rise.
The 2004-05 El Nino ocean cycle accounted for about 0.4 degrees, they calculated, while the 60-80 year natural cycle was thought to explain less than 0.2 degrees of the increase, according to Trenberth. The remainder is due to year-to-year variability in temperatures.
The center said the researchers "subtracted the global trend from the irregular Atlantic temperatures — in effect, separating global warming from the Atlantic natural cycle."
The results show that the 60-80 year natural cycle "is actually much weaker now than it was in the 1950s, when Atlantic hurricanes were also quite active," the center said.
The researchers stressed that global warming does not guarantee that each year will set records for hurricanes, noting that last year's record was due also to upper-level winds that contributed to hurricane formation.
The study by Trenberth and colleague Dennis Shea will appear in the June 27 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research is primarily sponsored by a consortium of universities and the National Science Foundation.
Panel: Earth warmest in 400 years - Environment - MSNBC.com
- 06-23-2006, 10:32 AM
this is funny.
- 06-23-2006, 11:25 AM
Im not complaining. Winter here was the mildest we ever had
06-23-2006, 11:36 AM
Peer reviewed studies have also appeared in that journal (Wilson, '03 or so) showing solar output increaing on a regular basis, a possible trend that if it extends back further than measured in the study would account for a significant amount of the warming people often say is the result of human activity.
06-23-2006, 11:48 AM
It's due to the massive amount of weed being smoked...
*points at CDB and runs*
06-23-2006, 11:52 AM
It's due to the massive amount of weed being smoked...
*points at CDB and runs*
You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Jayhawkk again.
06-23-2006, 11:57 AM
Honestly, I think a small part may be due to human activity...but the Earth has gone through massive fluctuations in climate over the past few billion years so I dont see how a slight rise in average temperatures should cause everyone to start screaming and yelling.Peer reviewed studies have also appeared in that journal (Wilson, '03 or so) showing solar output increaing on a regular basis, a possible trend that if it extends back further than measured in the study would account for a significant amount of the warming people often say is the result of human activity.
Some of my favorite movies are the 'Walking with...' series from the Discovery Channel. On one of the DVD's , "Walking With Monsters, Before The Dinosaurs", they talk about a warming shift on the planet where increased volcanic activity causes a massive drought that wiped out 95% of all life on the planet. Now that's serious Palm trees in NY, I wont complain
06-23-2006, 12:38 PM
i cant say it any better than this... but beware.. its rush limbaugh... and though he has been found to be right 96% of the time... some dislike him lol
06-23-2006, 12:41 PM
That's why I'm losing weight, regs say I have to reduce emissions.Originally Posted by Jayhawkk
06-23-2006, 02:17 PM
06-23-2006, 03:07 PM
I live in Ontario, Canada and our winters are getting so mild it's nuts, i remember when i was like 11 or 12 freezing my balls off now you can go with a light sweater if you wanted, plus our summer this year is going to be hot as hell.
06-23-2006, 03:35 PM
Yeah Im in central NY, and we barely had any snow on the ground at all this winter.
06-23-2006, 11:54 PM
Well i'm really used to the cold as it is growing up in Canada, like i'd barely wear a winter jacket as it was but now the winters are getting too warm for my liking, i actually like the cold. But i'm soooooooooo used to the cold that when my brother and i were in Dominican it was almost unbearable at times, i'd have sweat just poring down my face and arms when i was just sitting there, lol.
06-24-2006, 12:09 AM
Yeah, after winter the first few weeks of really hot weather are rough. I like Florida though, go figure.
06-24-2006, 12:14 AM
I love Florida but Dominican was unsually hot when i went, so it was the humidity that killed me, i can take dry heat just not the wet stuff, i get migraines and feel like ****.
06-24-2006, 06:42 PM
What is funny is, this kind of stuff always comes up in the news, IN THE SUMMER! You don't hear 'scientists' and 'experts' talk about global warming or earth heating up, in January!
06-24-2006, 06:49 PM
i personally think you guys take this way too lightly....
this is my opinion, and everyone has there own. some believe its not tied to what humans have done in the past 200 years, but....you really have to think about it....
it took the earth millions of years to grow the rainforests' and other natural habbitats, and in 100 years lots has been done. more buildings are going up more trees are being cut down more animals are dying off...all for money by the way.... and we dont know how long we can go before something HAS to be done. this is all coming from a NON TREE HUGGER point of view too. i just "try" and look at the big picture... i hope someone feels as i do on this matter.
06-24-2006, 07:12 PM
400runner i couldn't agree more something must be done.
06-24-2006, 11:57 PM
In the big picture the Sahara was once lush and green, massive portions of the US were under a shallow sea, and grass as we know it is a recent phenomena. Somehow with all these massive changes the world didn't end. The big picture is that the Earth has gone through thousands upon thousands upon thousands of massive climate shifts well before SUVs and styrofoam were a part of every day life, and well before humans decided to anything with fossil fuels, hell well before humans existed.Originally Posted by 400runner
The big picture also is that as long as humans have existed there have always been people claiming the world is going to end, starve, get too hot, get too cold, stay too mild, get too wet, get too dry or any other of a number of possible things unless the rest of the world let the privileged enlightened minority run their lives. Be it for moral or environmental reasons people have been claiming man has been destroying the Earth since man knew there was an Earth. Every. Single. Time. They. Were. Wrong. And every single time there was at least some of the population that was, I have to say it, stupid enough to believe them. Perhaps I'd have an easier time grabbing hold of global warming theories if they weren't propounded by people with demonstrable political agendas that were so far to the left they made Marx look like Menken. People with, incidentally a massive ignorance of economics and often times science as well.
Take this for example: if the weather doesn't change, it's due to global warming, as there are forecasts by its proponents which show gradual to no change followed by cataclism. If it gets too cold it's due to global warming, because there are forecasts by its proponents which show a world growing colder due to various problems caused by heating. If it gets too hot it's due to global warming, because there are forecasts by its proponents that show a world gradually to quickly heatin up until we're anothe Venus. So no matter what happens it's due to global warming. Gee, ain't that convenient; everything is evidence for global warming. Makes the 'theory' conveniently hard to falsify. And we'll forget for the moment that the computer models these geniuses use to forecast these weather trends are about as usefull as one sock with a hole in it.
If the Earth is getting warmer the chances that we have anything to do with it are near nil or at the very least far from being proven. If the Earth is getting warmer and we are partly responsible the solutions are so far from what's being recommended it makes no sense to listen to the environmentalists anyway.
06-25-2006, 12:22 AM
Originally Posted by CDB
06-25-2006, 10:02 AM
Just a sample of how far back this crap goes. I'm sure if we could translate cave drawings we'd find evidence that some shamman used a solar eclipse as an excuse to scare the rest of his tribe to death and exact some kind of tax to make things better for them.Originally Posted by The Facism of Environmentalism, by Bernard Switalski
06-25-2006, 10:25 AM
Exactly. I'm not worried about the Earth, the Earth will be fine. Humans, maybe not
06-25-2006, 12:02 PM
We can only hope. Personally, while I don't bear any ill will towards many if any people, I wouldn't mind seeing a good 90% of the population getting snuffed. Start over, from scratch, pick up the toys that have been left behind and run with it, see what happens.Originally Posted by BigVrunga
06-25-2006, 12:14 PM
06-25-2006, 12:25 PM
I`ve been reading about the Indus Valley culture which existed several 1000 years or so ago.
So it`s not like something new is going on.A possible natural reason for the IVC's decline is connected with climate change: The Indus valley climate grew significantly cooler and drier from about 1800 BCE. A crucial factor may have been the disappearance of substantial portions of the Ghaggar Hakra river system. A tectonic event may have diverted the system's sources toward the Ganges Plain, though there is some uncertainty about the date of this event. Although this particular factor is speculative, and not generally accepted, the decline of the IVC, as with any other civilization, will have been due to a combination of various reasons.
06-25-2006, 01:56 PM
Well we are at 10:36 am on the suns life cycle. We wont live past noon on that clock as it will be to hot. The sun was born 6:00am and will die at 6:00pm
06-25-2006, 06:37 PM
The climate change causes a drop in available food and the civilization dies. Answer, allow modern economies to develop to alleviate scarcity, which is the whole point of economic exchange, and this will not be a problem.Originally Posted by EEmain
06-25-2006, 07:09 PM
If global warming doesn't kill us, I guess the terrorists will. Just wake me when it's over.
06-25-2006, 07:33 PM
Originally Posted by CDB
Always the Economist...
06-25-2006, 09:47 PM
i seriously think people are so damn stubborn sometimes...everyone thinks their right about a situation. (not talking about this one by the way) but thats why or could be why there is war. thats why "there is not one God" to some, "there's many" and if you say differently your damn wrong, and your going to hell.
but in my thoughts, if one were to have a large scale "bio-dome" and one were to live there, and all of a sudden a large amount of carbon-dioxide or waste were released...at a much faster rate than ever before there could be problems. the earth is like a large green house and everything works together. a few things can be messed up and the system can still function properly, but if too many pices of the puzzle are missing or "killed off" then more problems could happen. of course thats why things adapt. and then theres the problem of the predicted 9billion people supposed to be on the earth in the next 20 years. that will stress the earth's soils and we will end up cutting more stuff down to grow more and then cause more of a problem in the natural flow of everything.
now, whats the next thing i can get rich off of? enough talk about this natural shiite.
06-25-2006, 10:45 PM
The earth is always seeking a state of homeostasis, pretty much like all life...if we dump to much crap into the atmosphere, the weather patterns go postal and we all die, earth goes back to normal and the Rhinoceros can take its rightful throne as the dominant species on the planet.Originally Posted by 400runner
06-25-2006, 11:01 PM
Where in CNY? I live in Syracuse.Originally Posted by BigVrunga
06-26-2006, 12:31 AM
Albany...used to live in Utica though! That's only a short drive from Syracuse.Where in CNY? I live in Syracuse.
06-26-2006, 02:00 AM
Myself and the rest of my Honors Biology class had to do a symposium on Global Warming at the end of this past semester. I'm now thorougly convinced that it is an entirely political matter. I use to think it was just "exaggerated", but now I'm convinced its entirely political. Hell, after Michael Chricton wrote "State of Fear", which was primarily written about global warming, Government sites (NASA was one) removed certain statistics from their sites because they contradicted the global warming position. Hell, it was funny because the entire Honors class came to teh same conclusions based off of independent research...we all believe its totally political.
I'm so sick of this debate and the entire environmentalist movement I can't even express it.
Last edited by kwyckemynd00; 07-30-2006 at 02:16 AM.
06-26-2006, 02:02 AM
Earth has never been in homeostasis. Its been constantly changing for its entire 4.5 billion year existence.Originally Posted by BigVrunga
06-26-2006, 02:08 AM
06-26-2006, 02:24 AM
If you want to consider bigtime territory destruction, etc, consider what the native americans use to do so that they could yield a higher level of bison births. they would set fire to the US' forests and nearly burn the things down so there was more room for bison to roam. After we stopped all of this and decided to "preserve" our "national forests" we completely destroyed the existing ecosystems almost making entire animal populations extinct.Originally Posted by 400runner
Increased CO2 production over the past 100 years has not been correlated with an increase in global temperature. Look up the raw data figures for the past 150 years. In addition, increased CO2 production will only increase crop yields, possibly benifiting man-kind.
Notice a pattern on global temperature and CO2 here over the past half million years?
Image:Vostok-ice-core-petit.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
edit: Then on to this stuff about people hypothesizing weather patterns and disasters etc. ROFLMAO! we cannot accurately predict weather even a couple of weeks in advance! Hw on earth can some of these people say we're going to see X or Y happen with 100% conviction when we don't have the knowledge to understand and especially predict weather in teh first place?
Last edited by kwyckemynd00; 06-26-2006 at 05:45 AM.
06-26-2006, 04:53 AM
You can color me -IN on this theory!Originally Posted by BigVrunga
I am a warm blooded mammal living in NYC. If global warming means 50 degree winters in NYC, then I think I can party with you guys a little bit longer.
The ability to adapt to changes in the enviroment is what makes human beings a dominant species, The flexible brain and handy opposable thumb is a one -two punch that has no equal.
Animals and Baterium all perish with slight biosphere changes( plants and fungus do a little better)
Even super computers are easily frustrated by changing variables
Lets enjoy our global dominace, shall we then? Especially after all this "my god is better than your god" stuff settles down!
Three cheers for the human race!"...we're number one!!!
...although, if the roaches can learn to access the internet...???
06-26-2006, 07:34 AM
with the atmosphere thinning could that be the cause also for the increase in temp? im not a scientist so excuse me if this is a dumb question.
well i noticed that when i was younger i could stay in the sun all day without sunblock and not get burned but this past weekend i played in an outdoor b-ball tourney and im burnt like a lobster! so UV rays are on the rise....the sun is getting hotter?
06-26-2006, 08:02 AM
Yeah, my ex was from the Utica/Rome area. Some good Italian food out there. Plus there's the casino...Originally Posted by BigVrunga
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