- 12-22-2008, 05:42 PM
Hey, just wondering who out there invests and if you have any good strategies for the current economic "downturn".
The strategy I'm considering is:
Buying a lot of GLD (NYSE gold index). (40%)
Buying some NYSE Euro or Yen index. (25%)
Buying gold and mineral exploration companies. (10%)
Keeping a minimal S&P exposure (25%ish)
Keeping minimal exposure in dollars, due to an upcoming inflationary explosion. Should I put my tinfoil hat on or am I playing it safe?
- 12-22-2008, 06:00 PM
The Gold investment looks sound to me.
In times of recession, gold has always been seen as a safe haven.
What sort of time frame is your proposed strategy?
- 12-22-2008, 06:02 PM
12-22-2008, 06:44 PM
12-22-2008, 06:45 PM
12-22-2008, 06:51 PM
12-22-2008, 06:55 PM
12-22-2008, 07:12 PM
Often gold producers hedge, or forward sell part or all of their production at an agreed price to minimise risk not only to future revenue, but also to hostile takeover bids.
I the current economic climate, one would want full exposure to a rising gold price, and obviously under 'normal conditions' the market would place a premium on the company value.
Currently this premium is not recognised due to economic uncertainty created by the sub-prime collapse and general panic mentality by the global investment community.
A google search will reveal more... as would advice from an investment professional (which I am not)
12-22-2008, 09:14 PM
12-22-2008, 09:23 PM
12-22-2008, 09:36 PM
12-22-2008, 09:38 PM
12-22-2008, 09:40 PM
12-22-2008, 09:57 PM
The number and scope of platinum's industrial uses have skyrocketed during this century to include neurosurgical and dental apparatus, drugs for cancer treatment, computer and automotive equipment. Indeed, one of every five goods manufactured either contains or is produced using platinum. One of its most essential uses is in auto catalytic converters. Within autocatalysts, platinum converts harmful emissions into carbon dioxide and water. Nearly one third of newly mined platinum is used in this fashion. Due to its function in the automotive industry, it has been dubbed "the environmental metal."
While new uses for platinum are being discovered almost daily, its supply is extremely restricted. Remarkable difficulties exist in its mining and production, with between 5 and 6 million ounces of new platinum reaching the world market each year; that figure is less than 5% of gold production. It is estimated that all of the platinum ever mined would fill a room measuring less than twenty-five feet on a side. Refining the metal poses its own problems; platinum occurs naturally in combination with other metals, necessitating an intricate process of extraction that takes about six months.
Taken from Platinum - History and Investment
In the past Platinum doesnt out perform gold in tough economic times, I think you could snap up some for quite cheap. The world is cracking down on polluters and i think its a nice way to diversify.
Id invest in gold bouillion or bars and if crap hits the fan you can ensure your saftey with this global standard of monetary exchange.
12-22-2008, 10:06 PM
- the world gold council
- CRU mineral economics
- London Metal Exchange
will give you a good start.
'Mineral Economics' is another good search - of course, throw 'China' or 'BRIC' , which is an acroymn for Brazil-Russia-India-China - key emerging economies that will drive future global economic growth
12-22-2008, 10:09 PM
12-22-2008, 10:10 PM
there is a tonne of info to wade through - I've studied post-grad level Mineral Economics, and work in the Resource and Mining Sector and sometimes feel I've only scraped the surface.
All the analysts are have been proved wrong with recent events - I don't think anyone has the correct answer.
It's still worth while seeking professional advice, but always, always do your own research as well.
12-22-2008, 10:13 PM
As peter schiff says the market fixes itself and its the governments involvement that has made things worse. Bailouts cant fix a company without some SERIOUS makeovers, which is extremely unlikely.
They are failing for a reason. The market is shedding some fat in tough times dont buy the fat.
12-22-2008, 10:22 PM
Look for the bargins with significant cashflow and a pipeline of quality assets. BHP and Rio Tinto are ones to watch.
12-29-2008, 07:01 PM
I'm not in the market at all and really don't know anything about investments, but recently I've been thinking I need to get better educated about money. You mentioned the yen. That reminded me of this guy Jim Rogers with a ton of vids on U-tube. He puts a big emphasis on commodities and agriculture, and he also really likes the Asian markets. What do you think about his economic theory and investment strategy? I had never heard of him before, but apparently he's some kind of investment guru. I LMAO looking at his videos too. The old man says what's on his mind with no BS!
12-29-2008, 07:11 PM
12-29-2008, 09:39 PM
I'll be sure to check out Jim Rogers. I've been trying to follow Peter Schiff's investment strategies as much as possible. He seems pretty brilliant, and everything he's saying makes sense to me.
IMHO, the best strategy one can make is to minimize dollar exposure to mitigate against upcoming inflationary pressures. Schiff recommends a combination of high dividend Asia stocks with minimal dollar exposure and Gold. Every non-inflationary *dollar* you make overseas equates to large amounts of actual dollars in our inflated dollars.
12-29-2008, 09:41 PM
12-29-2008, 10:24 PM
12-30-2008, 02:59 AM
Hurricane season always elevates oil prices due to platform destruction.
I have many more tinfoil hat reasons but wont share for fear of "theyre all gonna laugh at you, noo" lol.
12-30-2008, 03:04 AM
With gold you need to watch for a 'decoupling' trend from the US dollar - this indicated the price is no longer linked to the rise and fall of the USD, rather is recognised as a 'currency' in it's own right.
12-30-2008, 03:08 AM
12-30-2008, 08:42 AM
12-30-2008, 08:46 AM
12-30-2008, 08:55 AM
12-30-2008, 09:06 AM
12-30-2008, 09:14 AM
12-30-2008, 09:21 AM
12-30-2008, 09:21 AM
Wicked than i can sell my teeth for food, although i will have to get it pre chewed..
Note to self: get gold teeth.
12-30-2008, 03:39 PM
Alright. I've sold all my mutual funds except for 1 S&P Fund.
5% Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) AUY
A Canadian Gold company poised for 100% growth over the next 4 years. Offers a small monthly dividend. Planning on holding long term to take advantage of future gold price increases.
5% Pengrowth Energy Trust (USA) PGH
A Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Trust offering 20% dividends which I plan on reinvesting through a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP). Planning on holding long term to take advantage of future oil price increases.
12.5% SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) GLD
A trust which has 23 billion in gold stored. Its primary purpose is to mirror the gold market. Plan on holding long term to take advantage of future gold price increases.
10% ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (ETF) DIG
A fund that owns shares of securities highly tied to the price of oil, which causes shares to respond approximately twice as much as the price of oil. Oil goes up 5%, it goes up 10%, Oil goes down 5%, it goes down 10%. Plan on holding short term. Looking to sell when Oil gets to 35-40 a barrel.
8% iShares Silver Trust (ETF) SLV
Same as the gold trust. Long term play.
12.5% USAA S&P 500 INDEX MEMBER SHARE USSPX
This is the last of my former almost all mutual fund portfolio. Keeping it just because a little US market exposure can't hurt....
Looking to buy:
More PGH and AUY, or possibly other stocks in the same sector, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (ADR), YZC, a coal company in China.
12-30-2008, 04:42 PM
That looks pretty smart Rob! Gold looks solid, but historically it looks like silver may give an even greater return than gold. Does anybody have any info on the Amero? One source says it's backed with silver, another says gold. I'd think there might be better security in the standard metal, whatever it is.
12-30-2008, 04:58 PM
As for the Silver, I agree. Silver looks under priced compared to gold. I feel safer having precious metals than money right now. I think they both should do pretty well long term.
Everything I've read on the Amero is speculation. If they were to implement it and actually back the currency with an objective standard of gold and silver I would be SO all for it. However, considering most currencies are fiat now, I think the odds of that happening are pretty low....unless Ron Paul wins in 2012.Does anybody have any info on the Amero? One source says it's backed with silver, another says gold. I'd think there might be better security in the standard metal, whatever it is.
My theory is that the Fed and Treasury will devalue the dollar into worthlessness and then implement the Amero to sneak out of the inflationary nightmare of their own making.
A problem with the Amero in theory is that a common currency will hinder a poorer country such as Mexico. For example the Euro works fine for Germany and their stronger industrialization, but hurts the weaker economies in Italy and Spain. Obviously if the money was backed by precious metals I don't think this would be the case.
I have seen the idea of using gold as currency cropping up. Basically you have gold in a bank, and you use a debit card to purchase items in gold. The legality of this has been challenged by the government, but if legal it would be ideal.
12-30-2008, 05:13 PM
Also, it looks like China is buying all kinds of metals, not just precious. I wonder what that's all about.
12-30-2008, 05:29 PM
These are some good points - that is the risk with gold... but these are risky times.
One thing there is a huge shortage of is Rare Earth Elements (REEs).
Another note about Tin - it is now seen as a 'green' substitute for lead - lead has been banned in the EU.
China is the key ;-)
12-30-2008, 05:45 PM
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