Investment Strategies

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  1. Quote Originally Posted by RobInKuwait View Post
    I am confused why oil is so cheap vs the dollar while gold is doing so well.

    What makes you think oil will do so well?
    they have different economic drivers. Oil has a direct link to economic growth, gold is used as a 'safe haven' currency during times of economic uncertainty.

    With gold you need to watch for a 'decoupling' trend from the US dollar - this indicated the price is no longer linked to the rise and fall of the USD, rather is recognised as a 'currency' in it's own right.


  2. Now tin is a commodity I have a vested interest in:

    http://metalprices.com/metalNews.asp...&svc=RN&type=1
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  3. Quote Originally Posted by jakellpet View Post
    they have different economic drivers. Oil has a direct link to economic growth, gold is used as a 'safe haven' currency during times of economic uncertainty.

    With gold you need to watch for a 'decoupling' trend from the US dollar - this indicated the price is no longer linked to the rise and fall of the USD, rather is recognised as a 'currency' in it's own right.
    Gold and Oil historically have the same market tendencies. Commodities in general are considered 'safe havens' to inflationary pressures.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  4. Quote Originally Posted by somewhatgifted View Post
    http://www.stopahmadinejad.com/how-m...-persian-gulf/

    Hurricane season always elevates oil prices due to platform destruction.

    I have many more tinfoil hat reasons but wont share for fear of "theyre all gonna laugh at you, noo" lol.
    I think we may have missed the boat on this. Crude Oil is already around 40.

  5. Quote Originally Posted by RobInKuwait View Post
    Gold and Oil historically have the same market tendencies. Commodities in general are considered 'safe havens' to inflationary pressures.

    ...but this is historical data... remember we are in a new era of growth. The Sleeping Dragon has awakened and the rules may be re-written.

    To be honest no-one knows what the fk will happen. Right now cash is king
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  6. Quote Originally Posted by jakellpet View Post
    Right now cash is king
    Until inflation hits! Foreign cash is king.

  7. Quote Originally Posted by RobInKuwait View Post
    Until inflation hits! Foreign cash is king.
    ...then Gold is king

  8. Quote Originally Posted by jakellpet View Post
    ...then Gold is king
    Most definitely. I just bought AUY and own some GLD.

  9. Wicked than i can sell my teeth for food, although i will have to get it pre chewed..
    Note to self: get gold teeth.

  10. Alright. I've sold all my mutual funds except for 1 S&P Fund.

    5% Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) AUY
    A Canadian Gold company poised for 100% growth over the next 4 years. Offers a small monthly dividend. Planning on holding long term to take advantage of future gold price increases.

    5% Pengrowth Energy Trust (USA) PGH
    A Canadian Oil and Natural Gas Trust offering 20% dividends which I plan on reinvesting through a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP). Planning on holding long term to take advantage of future oil price increases.

    12.5% SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) GLD
    A trust which has 23 billion in gold stored. Its primary purpose is to mirror the gold market. Plan on holding long term to take advantage of future gold price increases.

    10% ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (ETF) DIG
    A fund that owns shares of securities highly tied to the price of oil, which causes shares to respond approximately twice as much as the price of oil. Oil goes up 5%, it goes up 10%, Oil goes down 5%, it goes down 10%. Plan on holding short term. Looking to sell when Oil gets to 35-40 a barrel.

    8% iShares Silver Trust (ETF) SLV
    Same as the gold trust. Long term play.

    12.5% USAA S&P 500 INDEX MEMBER SHARE USSPX
    This is the last of my former almost all mutual fund portfolio. Keeping it just because a little US market exposure can't hurt....

    47% Cash

    Looking to buy:

    More PGH and AUY, or possibly other stocks in the same sector, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (ADR), YZC, a coal company in China.

    Thoughts?

  11. That looks pretty smart Rob! Gold looks solid, but historically it looks like silver may give an even greater return than gold. Does anybody have any info on the Amero? One source says it's backed with silver, another says gold. I'd think there might be better security in the standard metal, whatever it is.

  12. Quote Originally Posted by DR.D View Post
    That looks pretty smart Rob! Gold looks solid, but historically it looks like silver may give an even greater return than gold.
    Thanks. I hope it plays out better than my funds tied to the American Stock Market strategy.

    As for the Silver, I agree. Silver looks under priced compared to gold. I feel safer having precious metals than money right now. I think they both should do pretty well long term.

    Does anybody have any info on the Amero? One source says it's backed with silver, another says gold. I'd think there might be better security in the standard metal, whatever it is.
    Everything I've read on the Amero is speculation. If they were to implement it and actually back the currency with an objective standard of gold and silver I would be SO all for it. However, considering most currencies are fiat now, I think the odds of that happening are pretty low....unless Ron Paul wins in 2012.

    My theory is that the Fed and Treasury will devalue the dollar into worthlessness and then implement the Amero to sneak out of the inflationary nightmare of their own making.

    A problem with the Amero in theory is that a common currency will hinder a poorer country such as Mexico. For example the Euro works fine for Germany and their stronger industrialization, but hurts the weaker economies in Italy and Spain. Obviously if the money was backed by precious metals I don't think this would be the case.

    I have seen the idea of using gold as currency cropping up. Basically you have gold in a bank, and you use a debit card to purchase items in gold. The legality of this has been challenged by the government, but if legal it would be ideal.

  13. Quote Originally Posted by RobInKuwait View Post
    ... However, considering most currencies are fiat now, I think the odds of that happening are pretty low.....
    That is what concerns me. If future currencies have no metal standard, then metals may be worth nothing beyond their industrial uses. Like platinum, it's got a high value now but if the auto industry takes a dip they say that platinum will too.

    Also, it looks like China is buying all kinds of metals, not just precious. I wonder what that's all about.

  14. Quote Originally Posted by DR.D View Post
    That is what concerns me. If future currencies have no metal standard, then metals may be worth nothing beyond their industrial uses. Like platinum, it's got a high value now but if the auto industry takes a dip they say that platinum will too.

    Also, it looks like China is buying all kinds of metals, not just precious. I wonder what that's all about.

    These are some good points - that is the risk with gold... but these are risky times.

    One thing there is a huge shortage of is Rare Earth Elements (REEs).

    Another note about Tin - it is now seen as a 'green' substitute for lead - lead has been banned in the EU.

    China is the key ;-)

  15. Okay...

    Where does one start to learn more about the basicis of such investing?

  16. Quote Originally Posted by DGSky View Post
    Okay...

    Where does one start to learn more about the basicis of such investing?
    the internet and a financial advisor that specialises in this area.

    there is some really good discussion in this thread - who said lifters were all a pack of meatheads?

  17. Quote Originally Posted by jakellpet View Post
    ... who said lifters were all a pack of meatheads?
    Haha, even meatheads gotta feed their kids!

    Your insights are appreciated Jakellpet. Thank you to all the fellas here with good input. It helps financial dummies like me a lot.

  18. Quote Originally Posted by DGSky View Post
    Okay...

    Where does one start to learn more about the basicis of such investing?
    Investing is not like other knowledge you find on the internet. You can get completely conflicting advice from reputable sources at all times, and either one could be completely right depending on macroeconomic factors in the market.

    Most places you go will spew out your standard invest in the market and over time you will see growth strategy. However, there are serious inherent flaws in this strategy, namely inflation.

    I recently read "Crash Proof, How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse" by Peter Schiff, and his insights are golden.

    There is mounds of raw data out there, and the best thing you can do is try and interpret that data into a coherent strategy and follow that strategy. My strategy is based on the premise that the dollar is dying and I'm taking what I think is the optimal strategy to maintain profits in this environment.

  19. Quote Originally Posted by DR.D View Post
    That is what concerns me. If future currencies have no metal standard, then metals may be worth nothing beyond their industrial uses. Like platinum, it's got a high value now but if the auto industry takes a dip they say that platinum will too.

    Also, it looks like China is buying all kinds of metals, not just precious. I wonder what that's all about.
    What's beautiful about precious metals is that for as long as human beings maintain ascetics has they have for the past 5000+ years, gold, silver, and platinum will still be in demand. Try and by your wife a pyrite and cubic zirconium ring and you'll see what I'm saying?

    The value of precious metal is in the labor that it took to find and mine them as well as the the effort to refine them. That gives the metals objective value.

    Metals like tin and commodities like oil are wanted for their utility alone. Precious metals have both utility and ascetics pushing their value.

  20. Quote Originally Posted by jakellpet View Post
    there is some really good discussion in this thread - who said lifters were all a pack of meatheads?
    Hells ya. I'd actually like to hear what other strategies people are implementing. This could grow into an interesting mega thread if we can get some contrasting ideas on investing going.
  21. FYI: Gold Fever....this is just the start.


    Gold rush erupts over financial crisis
    By Nick Gardner
    The Daily Telegraph
    January 10, 2009 12:01am
    All that glitters ... investors are are ploughing billions of dollars into gold to fend off the financial crisis.

    Record rush on gold in Australia
    Investors convinced gold's a safe haven
    Only time will tell if it is

    THE global financial crisis has sparked a new gold rush.
    Worried investors seeking a safe home for their money are ploughing billions of dollars into the precious metal in a bid to preserve their wealth, The Daily Telegraph reports.

    Demand has now reached such unprecedented levels that the Perth Mint, Australia's biggest wholesaler of gold coins and bars, has been forced to ration its sales.

    Perth Mint's bullion sales rose 194 per cent in the December quarter compared with the corresponding period in 2007, while silver bullion sales were up 140 per cent.

    The mint has suspended sales of all gold bars and all bullion coins - except its 1oz "Kangaroo" gold bullion coin.

    On Monday, after a three-month suspension, it will expand its range of bullion coins for sale but the restrictions remain in place for minted gold bullion bars so the mint can sell some gold to as many customers as possible.

    "We are working three shifts a day, six days a week, and still can't keep up with demand," Perth Mint CEO Ed Harbuz said. "I've never known anything like this in the precious metals market.

    "We would be working Sundays too but we are having difficulty getting enough staff."

    Non-minted gold in the form of cast bars produced by Perth Mint's local refinery can still be bought, although customers who want the bigger bars often have to wait several weeks.

    One customer recently bought $500,000 worth of bullion and wanted it delivered so he could hold it personally.

    "For very big orders we normally keep the gold in our depository for security reasons," Mr Harbuz said.

    "Orders of $10 million or more are not unusual. Often the orders are much larger if we are dealing with pension funds or institutional investors."

  22. Quote Originally Posted by jakellpet View Post
    Gold rush erupts over financial crisis
    By Nick Gardner
    The Daily Telegraph
    January 10, 2009 12:01am
    All that glitters ... investors are are ploughing billions of dollars into gold to fend off the financial crisis.

    Record rush on gold in Australia
    Investors convinced gold's a safe haven
    Only time will tell if it is

    THE global financial crisis has sparked a new gold rush.
    Worried investors seeking a safe home for their money are ploughing billions of dollars into the precious metal in a bid to preserve their wealth, The Daily Telegraph reports.

    Demand has now reached such unprecedented levels that the Perth Mint, Australia's biggest wholesaler of gold coins and bars, has been forced to ration its sales.

    Perth Mint's bullion sales rose 194 per cent in the December quarter compared with the corresponding period in 2007, while silver bullion sales were up 140 per cent.

    The mint has suspended sales of all gold bars and all bullion coins - except its 1oz "Kangaroo" gold bullion coin.

    On Monday, after a three-month suspension, it will expand its range of bullion coins for sale but the restrictions remain in place for minted gold bullion bars so the mint can sell some gold to as many customers as possible.

    "We are working three shifts a day, six days a week, and still can't keep up with demand," Perth Mint CEO Ed Harbuz said. "I've never known anything like this in the precious metals market.

    "We would be working Sundays too but we are having difficulty getting enough staff."

    Non-minted gold in the form of cast bars produced by Perth Mint's local refinery can still be bought, although customers who want the bigger bars often have to wait several weeks.

    One customer recently bought $500,000 worth of bullion and wanted it delivered so he could hold it personally.

    "For very big orders we normally keep the gold in our depository for security reasons," Mr Harbuz said.

    "Orders of $10 million or more are not unusual. Often the orders are much larger if we are dealing with pension funds or institutional investors."
    Wow, great find! That's the Perth Mint it the mint that Peter Schiff recommends. It makes me wonder why the price of gold isn't going up at the same rate.

  23. Quote Originally Posted by RobInKuwait View Post
    Wow, great find! That's the Perth Mint it the mint that Peter Schiff recommends. It makes me wonder why the price of gold isn't going up at the same rate.
    chances are it will Rob - it looks like the small investors have jumped the gun on the institutions

  24. Quote Originally Posted by jakellpet View Post
    chances are it will Rob - it looks like the small investors have jumped the gun on the institutions
    I was thinking about selling GLD, as 35-40% of my investments are a bit much for metals, but I'm going to hold now!

  25. Quote Originally Posted by RobInKuwait View Post
    I was thinking about selling GLD, as 35-40% of my investments are a bit much for metals, but I'm going to hold now!
    Of all the metals, gold would be the one to keep.

    ...but keep a close eye on Rare Earth Elements (REEs) - there's a current shortage building !
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