UFC 100 Pick 'Em Thread

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    UFC 100 Pick 'Em Thread


    UFC 100 Main Card Bouts:
    -Frank Mir (245) vs. Brock Lesnar (265)
    -Georges St. Pierre (170) vs. Thiago Alves (170)
    -Dan Henderson (185) vs. Michael Bisping (186)
    -Yoshihiro Akiyama (185) vs. Alan Belcher (186)
    -Jon Fitch (170) vs. Paulo Thiago (170)

    UFC 100 Preliminary Bouts:
    -Mark Coleman (205) vs. Stephan Bonnar (205)
    -Mac Danzig (154) vs. Jim Miller (155)
    -Jon Jones (206) vs. Jake O'Brien (206)

    Winners in bold.

    This is how I see the co-main events playing out:

    Mir v., Lesnar

    Striking:

    Mir is a much better technical boxer, has vastly more striking experience, and has appeared to have improved his MT and boxing greatly from the Rog Nog fight; however, the paper-advantage might not play out. Lesnar's right-jab has put or wobbled down every opponent he has faced, Mir included, within the first round. While Mir is technically leagues above Lesnar, it would be unwise for him to stand and trade with the Gorilla. Advantage: Lesnar

    Wrestling:

    Nothing needs to be said. Advantage: Lesnar

    Floor Grappling:

    Again, Mir is technically in another stratosphere, and has vastly more experience, but: as in the striking, it could come down to Lesnar's power and control. If he waves and becomes too excited - as he did against Mir the first time - Mir could easily catch him. Mir has historically been one of the most dangerous HWs in his guard, so Lesnar needs to keep the pace on the ground, posture up and throw big, driving shots, and avoid those little hammer fists. Advantage: Mir

    Intangibles:

    The experience factor, a big intangible, is hard to gauge here: Mir has more Octagon experience, but Lesnar is a National wrestling champion and has competed in the limelight his entire life. I think the real intangible is whether or not the big man can control the short fuse of his he has displayed, particularly when talking about this fight. If Lesnar gets too angry, and too excited, the calmer and more seasoned Mir could catch him. Advantage: Mir


    GSP v., Alves:

    Striking:

    Much has been made thus far of Thiago's striking, and rightfully so: six of his seven consecutive wins have been stunning knockouts; and so, it is claimed, again rightfully so, that GSP has not faced a striker of Alves' caliber. What continues to get lost, though, is that Alves has not faced a striker of GSP's calibre. Going through Alves' opponents and tape, there isn't a single fighter who was quick enough to constantly have a jab in his face, disrupting his rhythm; as well, Thiago's favorite weapons - left low kick, left hook, right knee - all leave him susceptible to shots GSP loves to throw: right superman punch, and a stiff left jab.

    I actually look for GSP to out kickbox Thiago in the first round to frustrate him with a varied attack, ala BJ, and then take him down after that. As Rodja said earlier, Thiago has a wide-open, Wandy-style MT that makes him very susceptible to crisp, lean jabs up the middle, and a technical KB'er is a poor match-up for him. What makes Thiago dangerous, though, is that he can end the fight at any time, a capacity Georges does not share. Advantage: Even (Georges' technicality and dynamism against Thiago's power)

    Wrestling:

    I think Georges' wrestling advantage is just as much as Brock's over Mir, but this category requires some explanation. The key question here is obvious: is Thiago's TDD enough to nullify Georges' takedowns? The short answer: no. Looking back to Thiago's second last fight, Matt Hughes easily took him down in the first, and held him there for well over two-thirds of the round; if a wrestlers of Hughes' caliber took Thiago down and controlled him, Georges will certainly put him down. While I don't expect Georges to attempt open-cage doubles - he will probably MT clinch him, which is maybe why he was working with Skarbowski - he will still have to be diligent about varying his attack to confuse Alves, prior to the TD. When it comes down to it, Georges has taken down Kos, Hughes, Fitch and BJ at will, so Alves will not be any different. Advantage: GSP.

    Grappling:

    This comes down to Georges' Gracie Barra BB [although only his brown was awarded by Renzo] against Thiago's PB. in Hughes/GSP III, I think GSP showed his ability to use his strength to set up transitions and multiple sub., possibilities, and Thiago may not be able to contend with this. This being said, it is hard to judge Thiago's guard: the last time he was truly on his back and controlled was two years ago, against Fitch, and Hughes was inactive in the last instance he was in guard. If Thiago is to avoid any subs, he will need to keep a very active guard to disrupt GSP's thought process. I would expect to see Georges attempt to transition immediately to half-guard for some G n' P after a takedown, and then into his familiar side-mount. Advantage: GSP.

    Intangibles:

    Is Georges' chin a concern? That is probably the biggest intangible. IMO: no, it is not. Georges has only been put on his back from strikes once, against Serra, and this spans into his TKO days [pre-UFC]. He showed his ability to take heavy damage without buckling against BJ/GSP I, and against every opponent since Serra I, he has quelled the "gun-shy" theory. As I see it, the biggest intangible does not lie with GSP, but with Thiago: can Thiago effectively assert his game-plan against a technical KB'er, and somebody who has historically brought an air-tight strategy to the fight? If Thiago gets frustrated and flustered early, as GSP can do to his opponents, he may regress ala Fitch and a G n' P will follow. Advantage: GSP

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    My 100


    UFC 100 Main Card Bouts:
    -Frank Mir (245) vs. Brock Lesnar (265) TKO Rd1
    -Georges St. Pierre (170) vs. Thiago Alves (170) TKO rd4
    -Dan Henderson (185) vs. Michael Bisping (186) Mauling TKO Rd2
    -Yoshihiro Akiyama (185) vs. Alan Belcher (186) UD
    -Jon Fitch (170) vs. Paulo Thiago (170) Fitch TKO Rd2

    UFC 100 Preliminary Bouts:
    -Mark Coleman (205) vs. Stephan Bonnar (205) UD
    -Mac Danzig (154) vs. Jim Miller (155) UD
    -Jon Jones (206) vs. Jake O'Brien (206) UD

    In terms of the top 3 fights:

    Lesnar v. Mir:
    Mir is without a doubt a better fighter, but as was seen in the first fight, Lesnar is too powerful and athletic. If he has become more aware of himself in the cage (I believe he has) then I think he will be able to take Mir down at will and stay out of trouble. He will mos tlikely get a dominant position early, and force a ref stoppage in the first round.

    GSP v. Alves:
    I have gone on record stating I want Alves to win, as I think it is good for the 170lbs division to vary the matchups. However, outside of a punchers chance, I am beginning to think GSP might dominate this fight. I think GSP will be very tentative in the first roudn, and will be focusing more on getting his range, and timing. Once he survives what I believe will be an initial onslaught by Alves, I think he will wear Alves down in rds 2-4 and finish him off via GnP.

    Henderson v. Bisping:
    This one scares me, as I could see Bisping trying to do to Hendo what he did to Leben. However, a few things standout to me. Look at who Henderson has fought and beaten, and then look at Bispings. This is a HUGE step up for Bisping, and I dont believe he has the tools to beat Henderson outside of a hit and run fight. I see Henderson taking him down at will, and mauling him the way he did to Anderson in the first round. As long as Hendo's gas tank is good to go, I see him finishing off Bisping either late rd1 or early rd 2.
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE14 View Post
    UFC 100 Main Card Bouts:
    -Frank Mir (245) vs. Brock Lesnar (265) TKO Rd1
    -Georges St. Pierre (170) vs. Thiago Alves (170) TKO rd4
    -Dan Henderson (185) vs. Michael Bisping (186) Mauling TKO Rd2
    -Yoshihiro Akiyama (185) vs. Alan Belcher (186) UD
    -Jon Fitch (170) vs. Paulo Thiago (170) Fitch TKO Rd2

    UFC 100 Preliminary Bouts:
    -Mark Coleman (205) vs. Stephan Bonnar (205) UD
    -Mac Danzig (154) vs. Jim Miller (155) UD
    -Jon Jones (206) vs. Jake O'Brien (206) UD
    You think Akiyama will buck the trend and perform well in his post-PRIDE, UFC debut?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mulletsoldier View Post
    UFC 100 Main Card Bouts:
    -Frank Mir (245) vs. Brock Lesnar (265)
    -Georges St. Pierre (170) vs. Thiago Alves (170)
    -Dan Henderson (185) vs. Michael Bisping (186)
    -Yoshihiro Akiyama (185) vs. Alan Belcher (186)
    -Jon Fitch (170) vs. Paulo Thiago (170)

    UFC 100 Preliminary Bouts:
    -Mark Coleman (205) vs. Stephan Bonnar (205)
    -Mac Danzig (154) vs. Jim Miller (155)
    -Jon Jones (206) vs. Jake O'Brien (206)

    Winners in bold.

    This is how I see the co-main events playing out:

    Mir v., Lesnar

    Striking:

    Mir is a much better technical boxer, has vastly more striking experience, and has appeared to have improved his MT and boxing greatly from the Rog Nog fight; however, the paper-advantage might not play out. Lesnar's right-jab has put or wobbled down every opponent he has faced, Mir included, within the first round. While Mir is technically leagues above Lesnar, it would be unwise for him to stand and trade with the Gorilla. Advantage: Lesnar

    Wrestling:

    Nothing needs to be said. Advantage: Lesnar

    Floor Grappling:

    Again, Mir is technically in another stratosphere, and has vastly more experience, but: as in the striking, it could come down to Lesnar's power and control. If he waves and becomes too excited - as he did against Mir the first time - Mir could easily catch him. Mir has historically been one of the most dangerous HWs in his guard, so Lesnar needs to keep the pace on the ground, posture up and throw big, driving shots, and avoid those little hammer fists. Advantage: Mir

    Intangibles:

    The experience factor, a big intangible, is hard to gauge here: Mir has more Octagon experience, but Lesnar is a National wrestling champion and has competed in the limelight his entire life. I think the real intangible is whether or not the big man can control the short fuse of his he has displayed, particularly when talking about this fight. If Lesnar gets too angry, and too excited, the calmer and more seasoned Mir could catch him. Advantage: Mir


    GSP v., Alves:

    Striking:

    Much has been made thus far of Thiago's striking, and rightfully so: six of his seven consecutive wins have been stunning knockouts; and so, it is claimed, again rightfully so, that GSP has not faced a striker of Alves' caliber. What continues to get lost, though, is that Alves has not faced a striker of GSP's calibre. Going through Alves' opponents and tape, there isn't a single fighter who was quick enough to constantly have a jab in his face, disrupting his rhythm; as well, Thiago's favorite weapons - left low kick, left hook, right knee - all leave him susceptible to shots GSP loves to throw: right superman punch, and a stiff left jab.

    I actually look for GSP to out kickbox Thiago in the first round to frustrate him with a varied attack, ala BJ, and then take him down after that. As Rodja said earlier, Thiago has a wide-open, Wandy-style MT that makes him very susceptible to crisp, lean jabs up the middle, and a technical KB'er is a poor match-up for him. What makes Thiago dangerous, though, is that he can end the fight at any time, a capacity Georges does not share. Advantage: Even (Georges' technicality and dynamism against Thiago's power)

    Wrestling:

    I think Georges' wrestling advantage is just as much as Brock's over Mir, but this category requires some explanation. The key question here is obvious: is Thiago's TDD enough to nullify Georges' takedowns? The short answer: no. Looking back to Thiago's second last fight, Matt Hughes easily took him down in the first, and held him there for well over two-thirds of the round; if a wrestlers of Hughes' caliber took Thiago down and controlled him, Georges will certainly put him down. While I don't expect Georges to attempt open-cage doubles - he will probably MT clinch him, which is maybe why he was working with Skarbowski - he will still have to be diligent about varying his attack to confuse Alves, prior to the TD. When it comes down to it, Georges has taken down Kos, Hughes, Fitch and BJ at will, so Alves will not be any different. Advantage: GSP.

    Grappling:

    This comes down to Georges' Gracie Barra BB [although only his brown was awarded by Renzo] against Thiago's PB. in Hughes/GSP III, I think GSP showed his ability to use his strength to set up transitions and multiple sub., possibilities, and Thiago may not be able to contend with this. This being said, it is hard to judge Thiago's guard: the last time he was truly on his back and controlled was two years ago, against Fitch, and Hughes was inactive in the last instance he was in guard. If Thiago is to avoid any subs, he will need to keep a very active guard to disrupt GSP's thought process. I would expect to see Georges attempt to transition immediately to half-guard for some G n' P after a takedown, and then into his familiar side-mount. Advantage: GSP.

    Intangibles:

    Is Georges' chin a concern? That is probably the biggest intangible. IMO: no, it is not. Georges has only been put on his back from strikes once, against Serra, and this spans into his TKO days [pre-UFC]. He showed his ability to take heavy damage without buckling against BJ/GSP I, and against every opponent since Serra I, he has quelled the "gun-shy" theory. As I see it, the biggest intangible does not lie with GSP, but with Thiago: can Thiago effectively assert his game-plan against a technical KB'er, and somebody who has historically brought an air-tight strategy to the fight? If Thiago gets frustrated and flustered early, as GSP can do to his opponents, he may regress ala Fitch and a G n' P will follow. Advantage: GSP
    WOW! Exactly spot on - Probably the best analysis ive seen hands down. You certainly know your stuff!

    Lol @ Lesnar's "little hamerfists"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mulletsoldier View Post
    You think Akiyama will buck the trend and perform well in his post-PRIDE, UFC debut?
    I think so, as long as he is smart. Belcher is dangeroues, but Akiyama has a much better skill set. However, as we have seen, hell Fedor could go in and lose to Justin McCully by high kick.
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    Quote Originally Posted by AE14 View Post
    I think so, as long as he is smart. Belcher is dangeroues, but Akiyama has a much better skill set. However, as we have seen, hell Fedor could go in and lose to Justin McCully by high kick.
    Hah! I really like Akiyama's skill set (far better than Belcher's) but so few PRIDE stars have faired well in the Octagon. I think Akiyama can win, but I usually pick them how I play them - that is, how I would bet money. Given the line on Belcher/Akiyama, playing Belcher is safe!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogsy123 View Post
    WOW! Exactly spot on - Probably the best analysis ive seen hands down. You certainly know your stuff!

    Lol @ Lesnar's "little hamerfists"
    They are, ha. He throws those short little hammers and elbows from half-guard/side-mount, when he should really posture up and rain down shots. With his power, he could completely KO his opponents.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mulletsoldier View Post
    Hah! I really like Akiyama's skill set (far better than Belcher's) but so few PRIDE stars have faired well in the Octagon. I think Akiyama can win, but I usually pick them how I play them - that is, how I would bet money. Given the line on Belcher/Akiyama, playing Belcher is safe!
    Belcher has a chance, but sooner or later a pride fighter is going to come in and win right away damn it
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    UFC 100 Main Card Bouts:

    -Frank Mir (245) vs. Brock Lesnar (265)

    -Georges St. Pierre (170) vs. Thiago Alves (170)

    -Dan Henderson (185) vs. Michael Bisping (186)

    I'll just pick those three. I don't know much about the other guys fighting.

    Mir looks like he is coming into this fight in the best shape I have ever seen him in. We'll see if that is enough to beat the beast.


    Your analysis looks good though. I would agree with it except I just have a nagging feeling that Mir will repeat against Brock.
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    Definitely could be. I think Mir has a better chance of beating Lesnar, than Alves does of beating GSP.
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    These are my picks:

    UFC 100 Main Card Bouts:
    -Frank Mir (245) vs. Brock Lesnar (265)
    -Georges St. Pierre (170) vs. Thiago Alves (170)
    -Dan Henderson (185) vs. Michael Bisping (186)
    -Yoshihiro Akiyama (185) vs. Alan Belcher (186)
    -Jon Fitch (170) vs. Paulo Thiago (170)

    UFC 100 Preliminary Bouts:
    -Mark Coleman (205) vs. Stephan Bonnar (205)
    -Mac Danzig (154) vs. Jim Miller (155)
    -Jon Jones (206) vs. Jake O'Brien (206)
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    Quote Originally Posted by bla55 View Post
    These are my picks:

    UFC 100 Main Card Bouts:
    -Frank Mir (245) vs. Brock Lesnar (265)
    -Georges St. Pierre (170) vs. Thiago Alves (170)
    -Dan Henderson (185) vs. Michael Bisping (186)
    -Yoshihiro Akiyama (185) vs. Alan Belcher (186)
    -Jon Fitch (170) vs. Paulo Thiago (170)

    UFC 100 Preliminary Bouts:
    -Mark Coleman (205) vs. Stephan Bonnar (205)
    -Mac Danzig (154) vs. Jim Miller (155)
    -Jon Jones (206) vs. Jake O'Brien (206)
    Alves, Bisping and Thiago? Night of upsets?
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    So Mullet, do you wanna give me some odds, on GSP/Alves? If so depending, i may be down to take that bet..lol
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    Quote Originally Posted by imprezivr6 View Post
    So Mullet, do you wanna give me some odds, on GSP/Alves? If so depending, i may be down to take that bet..lol
    Haha, well I am not the house, brother! If we were betting for an NP gift certificate - what I bet with prior - it would be 1:1. If we do bet, please do not pull a tribaltek: lose and then cease to log on for three weeks.
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    Ya, i wont bet 1:1, unless it is on GSP.. I honestly hope he smashes Alves.

    I figured if you wanted to give me odds we could make it interesting.

    No vanishing act, either..haha
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    He will. We are talking about a fighter who, excluding Serra I, has not lost a round in three years [since BJ I]. That is a period spanning - again, excluding Serra I - 18 rounds, and 6 fights; three of the which were against a champion [Hughes II, BJ II, Serra II], and another was a title defense [Fitch]. This is one of the most dominants spans in MMA, and Thiago Alves isn't going to stop it.

    The UFC are great marketers, but knocking out a Matt Hughes who farted dirt immediately thereafter does not convince me.

    EDIT:

    My Canadian-pride fueled GSP-rants increase in intensity exponentially as the fight nears, ha. I apologize in advance.
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    Ill be picking Lesnar, Alves, Henderson, akiyama, fitch, jones... Its Alves night I think. As long as Lesnar has worked on his weaknesses and doesnt do something stupid like his first fight with Mir he should win easy.. Hendy is a given, Bisping doesn't deserve to be anywhere close to where he is, ESP after the Hamill fight.. I pray I get to see him KTFO tonight.
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    SPOILER:



    With all due respect, I can't believe some of you thought Alves had an honest shot. GSP handled him thoroughly on the feet, with Alves never landing a shot of significance, and GSP taking him down at will. I am going to retire to my gloating, and become an MMA analyst.
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    lol bla55 what were you thinking hahaha
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    I really thought Bispin would have a better technical stand up against hendo, but he was a fkuc retard by sidestepping into his big hand... WTF?

    Alves got takendown a lot, but always managed to find his way back up and was doing a decent job. Unfortunally he couldn't control takedowns enough and those scored huge points...

    I didn't know what to expect from Fitch, so I went with the other... But yeah, got burned, never guess these many fights wrong.
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    take downs score huge with judges.

    bisping has never faced anyone as good as hendo.

    matt hamill had no standup at the time, chris leben is a train wreck but good at times. I knew it would happen, . whatever we have all done it hahah
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    Yeah, I was also basing my pick on latest Hendo fights. He looked decent but not like the good ol Pride Hendo, so I didnt know what to expect, didn't know if he was just like Wandy and having all his fights kinda creep up on him and slow him down.
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    The whole event went pretty much with the lines. I think only the Coleman and Danzig fight went against the betting lines.
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    dude rodja danzig and bonnar are having a tough time do you think they are done? moving on to strikeforce or soemthing
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigwhiteguy29 View Post
    dude rodja danzig and bonnar are having a tough time do you think they are done? moving on to strikeforce or soemthing
    I never really thought either of them where too special. Bonnar's game hasn't evolved and neither has Danzig's.
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    I never liked danzig. that TUF was so boring and so is he. Bonnar is jsut one of those guys who just comes up short.-
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