Alves vs GSP (UFC 100) Predictions?

Who will win?

  • Thiago Alves

    Votes: 10 22.2%
  • Georges St-Pierre

    Votes: 35 77.8%

  • Total voters
    45

Flyers2385

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I think this has the potential to be the fight of the night for UFC 100. I know it's not till July, but I'm jacked for this one and am gonna have to pick Thiago Alves from American Top Team. What do you guys think?

 
time lord

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alves's only respectable wins are against koscheck and an aged matt hughes. i think the fact that he has a title shot so soon speaks only to the lack of depth in the UFC's WW division. i honestly don't think he has a prayer.
 
somewhatgifted

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I dont think thiago is that special type of guy like silva, machida, gsp and bj are. He is a freak in his own right but likely to be beat due to his short range and inferior gnp.
 

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GSP wins, however to say he hasn't beathen anyone is silly. The only difference is BJ and Fitch between the two.

Either way, GSP via GnP rd 2
 

luclyluciano

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GSP by takrdown & then smothering. oh yeah, it's called wrestling.
 
VolcomX311

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Alves looked intimidated by GSP at the end of the Penn/GSP fight (but that's just my subjective speculation). A mental self defeat may or may not be part of the equation, GSP/Serra 1, Lidell/Tito (all of them) style.
 

sonofsteven

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GSP via howeverthef**K he pleases :AR15firing: Also I take Mir over Brock and Hendo over Bisping .
 
VolcomX311

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GSP via howeverthef**K he pleases :AR15firing: Also I take Mir over Brock and Hendo over Bisping .
I'm taking Brock over Mir, but not necessarily based on talent, I just don't like Mir and I do like Brock. High level BJJ vs High level wrestling and general beastnasity. I would normally give that nod to high level BJJ over high level wrestling, but we'll see if Brock's beastnasity will play a role.
 
Mulletsoldier

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GSP wins, however to say he hasn't beathen anyone is silly. The only difference is BJ and Fitch between the two.

Either way, GSP via GnP rd 2
You and I usually agree, but I will have to dissent here. GSP crushed Hughes twice in his prime, and has beaten BJ once, with one being a dominating win - a win, at that, which came when BJ was again being touted as one of the best P4P fighters. Thiago beat Hughes on the downslide, however. Aside from that, they share wins over Karo and Kos; however, Thiago's win over Kos came with Kos jumping in with a week to go, and it was still close. GSP dominated a UFC WW division in its prime, so to say the only difference is BJ and Fitch is premature.

Alves wins this fight 2/10 times, as he really has nothing substantial to offer GSP. It will be far more competitive than GSP/Penn II, but still a dominating performance by GSP.
 
Mulletsoldier

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Alves looked intimidated by GSP at the end of the Penn/GSP fight (but that's just my subjective speculation). A mental self defeat may or may not be part of the equation, GSP/Serra 1, Lidell/Tito (all of them) style.
I agree: Alvez could not look GSP in the eye, and after the fight he reached out to grab his hand. It reminds me of GSP/Hughes I staredown.
 
fightbackhxc

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I am hoping Thiago wins only because I can't stand GSP. Alves is a pretty respectable fighter.
 
fightbackhxc

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sonofsteven

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Just dont care for the guy lol. Call me crazy.
This is how i feel about Brock as opposed to Pierre . Dont know why but he just rubs me the wrong way . My roommate hates GSP for sounding so much like Jean-Claude Van Damme :dunno:
 
Jessep76

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You and I usually agree, but I will have to dissent here. GSP crushed Hughes twice in his prime, and has beaten BJ once, with one being a dominating win - a win, at that, which came when BJ was again being touted as one of the best P4P fighters. Thiago beat Hughes on the downslide, however. Aside from that, they share wins over Karo and Kos; however, Thiago's win over Kos came with Kos jumping in with a week to go, and it was still close. GSP dominated a UFC WW division in its prime, so to say the only difference is BJ and Fitch is premature.

Alves wins this fight 2/10 times, as he really has nothing substantial to offer GSP. It will be far more competitive than GSP/Penn II, but still a dominating performance by GSP.
dat...dats what i tink :D
 
VolcomX311

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This is how i feel about Brock as opposed to Pierre . Dont know why but he just rubs me the wrong way . My roommate hates GSP for sounding so much like Jean-Claude Van Damme :dunno:
Lol, that's completely legit in my book. That was hilarious.
 
Jessep76

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Bloodsport is in my top 10. Although he blew it passing on Stallone's flick for Seagal's.
 

sonofsteven

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Lol, that's completely legit in my book. That was hilarious.
Yeah try as I might I've not been able to argue his logic on that one . Pierre really does sound like Van Damme and now I notice it every time he speaks .
 
Mulletsoldier

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Haha, as much as I hate to say it, that is a valid a reason I have heard to hate GSP.
 

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You and I usually agree, but I will have to dissent here. GSP crushed Hughes twice in his prime, and has beaten BJ once, with one being a dominating win - a win, at that, which came when BJ was again being touted as one of the best P4P fighters. Thiago beat Hughes on the downslide, however. Aside from that, they share wins over Karo and Kos; however, Thiago's win over Kos came with Kos jumping in with a week to go, and it was still close. GSP dominated a UFC WW division in its prime, so to say the only difference is BJ and Fitch is premature.

Alves wins this fight 2/10 times, as he really has nothing substantial to offer GSP. It will be far more competitive than GSP/Penn II, but still a dominating performance by GSP.
I think the only thing that Alves brings is size. He will be a bigger WW than GSP has faced. However, I think GSP adjusts in short order. The only sad thing is that it shows there is nothing at 170 for GSP

Other fights:
Hendo via tko rd 3
Brock tko rd 1 (similar to the first fight)
 
Young Gotti

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i know gsp is way more rounded than alves but i do think alves can give gsp some problems, gsp is big for the weight class but alves is even bigger which could give gsp some problems, i'd like to see alves win but i'm in the minority, as for the other fights i think hendo over bisbing and brock over mir even though i can't stand brock lesnar in the ufc, listening to him in interviews just makes me hate him more and more everytime his cocky attitude says anything, and for the fact that he got a title shot so quickly
 
Mulletsoldier

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I think the only thing that Alves brings is size. He will be a bigger WW than GSP has faced. However, I think GSP adjusts in short order. The only sad thing is that it shows there is nothing at 170 for GSP

Other fights:
Hendo via tko rd 3
Brock tko rd 1 (similar to the first fight)
I agree with all of it. It does, unfortunately, show that the WW division is going the way of the LHW: a champion with no contenders. Same thing here, insofar as at one time we had Hughes [while good], GSP, BJ, Sherk, Trigg, and Karo in an ultra-competitive division. The way in which GSP dispatched and outwrestled both Fitch and Kos makes me entirely unexcited for any possible rematch there.
 
VolcomX311

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i know gsp is way more rounded than alves but i do think alves can give gsp some problems, gsp is big for the weight class but alves is even bigger which could give gsp some problems, i'd like to see alves win but i'm in the minority, as for the other fights i think hendo over bisbing and brock over mir even though i can't stand brock lesnar in the ufc, listening to him in interviews just makes me hate him more and more everytime his cocky attitude says anything, and for the fact that he got a title shot so quickly
I can see where you're coming from. I don't think he'll ever shake his WWE, character charisma and will probably always be dramatically cocky to try and market himself. Although, on MMA radio and Bodybuilding Radio, he behaved like a normal person. Nonetheless, I can see how that would irritate you.
 
Mulletsoldier

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I can see where you're coming from. I don't think he'll ever shake his WWE, character charisma and will probably always be dramatically cocky to try and market himself. Although, on MMA radio and Bodybuilding Radio, he behaved like a normal person. Nonetheless, I can see how that would irritate you.
It is definitely annoying to the purist, but I think Brock's persona is fabricate to generated sales and so forth. I have heard in training he is a very humble person.
 
VolcomX311

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It is definitely annoying to the purist, but I think Brock's persona is fabricate to generated sales and so forth. I have heard in training he is a very humble person.
In non-MMA related interviews I've heard, he's really, really humble. He gets dramatic because that's what he's used to and you nailed it on the head, he's trying to generate a persona to either be loved or hated, because both sale. As annoying as the whole, "can you see me now!" bit gets, it's him trying to sell his character. Nonetheless, a personality that strong will inevitably annoy some, so it's understandable.

and that's notwithstanding the people who still see call him a fake wrestler, who know nothing of his elite, collegiate wrestling background. Either way, he seems to be a love him or hate him guy, from a spectrum of perspectives.
 

JZ7757

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Ahhh...dont get me started on this fight, I could disect this match up for hours!! I really like both guys - both at the top of their game, are well rounded (even though GSP is more WR'd) and come from two of the best camps in the US.

I believe GSP wrestling/control and GJ's inspired gameplan will be the Key. However, Alves TDD is very much improved and if he catches GSP we are going to see just how well he can take a punch from Alves, which may not be that well later in the fight, where he will take progressive damage if he cant get Alves down. Alves is a little quicker than GSP and it will only take Alves a few shots to put GSP in danger.

GSP has been 5rds before, while Alves has not, but I dont see this being a large factor. Everyone has blown the Alves weight thing out of the water (pun intended), however, in reality over the last three years Alves has only missed weight once due to an injury and finally has the cut down to a science, and it shows has he has gotten bigger!

This will be a long great fight, with late TKO/KO by either fighter or GSP by UD. I am going to pick Alves by minor upset.....
 
Mulletsoldier

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Are you a wagering man? I just made a $25 NP gift certificate off of the Penguins in the Cup Final, I would love to make it 2/2!
 
Rodja

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The huge, and I mean huge, X-factor in this fight is GSP's head. The memory of what happened against Serra (fluke or not, it happened) seems to still linger in his unwillingness to exchange. I know that his competitive advantage is his TD/GnP, but he is dealing with the most dynamic striker in his career in this fight. Kos and Hughes were unable to mount any sort of TD/GnP agianst Thiago, but I do believe that GSP is in a higher tier than them in terms of MMA TD. I expect GSP to use his front-switch kick to find his range and then use that to set-up his shot/TD.
 

sonofsteven

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Alves is the only welterweight that I'm aware of to ever have stepped into the cage bigger than GSP-199 against Hughes . I think it was Hughes . I do think Pierre will win regardless but I hope Thiago is tested stringently before/after the fight seeing as how he has tested positive for diuretics in the past . Steroid masking agent as well as highly effective in helping to shed water weight . I want this match to be legit no matter the outcome . WAR Van Da-I mean GSP !! It was after he defeated Tony DeSouza he popped positive for spironolactone and was subsequently suspended for eight months.
 
Mulletsoldier

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The huge, and I mean huge, X-factor in this fight is GSP's head. The memory of what happened against Serra (fluke or not, it happened) seems to still linger in his unwillingness to exchange. I know that his competitive advantage is his TD/GnP, but he is dealing with the most dynamic striker in his career in this fight. Kos and Hughes were unable to mount any sort of TD/GnP agianst Thiago, but I do believe that GSP is in a higher tier than them in terms of MMA TD. I expect GSP to use his front-switch kick to find his range and then use that to set-up his shot/TD.
You think so, re: lingering fear of exchange? He had several exchanges with Fitch - a striker, albeit, nowhere on the level of Alvez - and seemed wiling to exchange with BJ before he demoralized him. (Also keeping in mind BJ brutalized GSP in their first fight, eye-poke-induced or not; so really, a fear would have been present there if anywhere.) I just feel that the argument you give above is a very similar argument proposed for GSP/Penn II: GSP may be unable to utilize his wrestling, and is outmatched on the feet; and, we all know how that turned out. As well, I would rank BJ's TDD due to his dexterity well above Alves'.

From my perspective, Alvez's TDD is being overestimated. You could say he has fought three elite wrestlers: Kos, Hughes, and Fitch. However, Kos took the fight on a week's notice, Hughes' loss was his third in four fights, and Fitch defeated him; and to that end, GSP dominated the wrestling-match with all three of those fighters - and so, it is difficult to estimate how Alves will fair against [arguably] the best MMA-wrestler in MMA. None of the three above had the athleticism of GSP, which usually pays dividends in GSP's fights.

Unless Alves catches GSP with an early TKO/KO, this fight will play out similar to GSP's last five fights post-Serra I: find his range in the first round, aggressively pursue TDs through the second round and beyond, wear his opponent out, and then score a convincing UD and/or finish the fight. If Alves can use brute-strength to avoid TDs, he has a chance; if not, it will be a pretty dominant win by GSP.
 
bla55

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I believe GSP will end up winning this one, but I would not be surprised the least bit if Thiago catches GSP with a flying knee or a kick as GSP goes for a takedown.

As an overall fighter I pick GSP, but I do think Thiago has a good shot at an upset just from one hit knockout.

As far as Brock x Mir, I'll side with Mir again, and feel like Bispin will also pull an upset with a standup battle with Hendo.
 
Rodja

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You think so, re: lingering fear of exchange? He had several exchanges with Fitch - a striker, albeit, nowhere on the level of Alvez - and seemed wiling to exchange with BJ before he demoralized him. (Also keeping in mind BJ brutalized GSP in their first fight, eye-poke-induced or not; so really, a fear would have been present there if anywhere.) I just feel that the argument you give above is a very similar argument proposed for GSP/Penn II: GSP may be unable to utilize his wrestling, and is outmatched on the feet; and, we all know how that turned out. As well, I would rank BJ's TDD due to his dexterity well above Alves'.

From my perspective, Alvez's TDD is being overestimated. You could say he has fought three elite wrestlers: Kos, Hughes, and Fitch. However, Kos took the fight on a week's notice, Hughes' loss was his third in four fights, and Fitch defeated him; and to that end, GSP dominated the wrestling-match with all three of those fighters - and so, it is difficult to estimate how Alves will fair against [arguably] the best MMA-wrestler in MMA. None of the three above had the athleticism of GSP, which usually pays dividends in GSP's fights.

Unless Alves catches GSP with an early TKO/KO, this fight will play out similar to GSP's last five fights post-Serra I: find his range in the first round, aggressively pursue TDs through the second round and beyond, wear his opponent out, and then score a convincing UD and/or finish the fight. If Alves can use brute-strength to avoid TDs, he has a chance; if not, it will be a pretty dominant win by GSP.
I'm pretty sure that Kos took the fight on 4 weeks notice as opposed to 1, but the fact still remains he took it on short notice. The difference between BJ and Thiago on the feet is apparent and I think that GSP had the perfect gameplan for that fight. By the end of the 1st, BJ was already gassing out because of how much bigger and stronger GSP is.

I'd also say that Thiago has a much, much better camp than BJ in terms of overall talent, S&C, and work ethic. I'm not saying that Thiago is the favorite, but I'd say it's 65/35, GSP.
 

bigwhiteguy29

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I think GSP will get caught for some reason.
 
somewhatgifted

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I just remembered how much abuse kos absorbed via thiago, props to both of them for diff reasons.
 
Mulletsoldier

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Is anybody willing to take a $25 NP gift certificate bet on this?
 

bigwhiteguy29

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lol no i am saying thiago wins just to upset gsp fans and if he does win say haha i called it! no it should be a pretty good battle tho i hope it ends somehow not decision.
 

JZ7757

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Are you a wagering man? I just made a $25 NP gift certificate off of the Penguins in the Cup Final, I would love to make it 2/2!
lol - No I am not. Trust me, I hate picking against GSP. Excellent fighter, great person and very humble gentlemen. I really, really like both guys and have been following them for a long time, but if GSP cant get Alves down (which i think he can, inconsistantly though) then GSP good striking will only last so long against Alves excellent striking.

Also, I agree with you, GSP's head has been cleared a long time ago. :)
 
somewhatgifted

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I dont like alves chances as a striker against gsp when you factor in the reach advantage and gsp's footwork. It doesnt matter how big your gun is if you cant get your target to stand in the line of fire.

As a fellow canadian i dont think i can intelligably or patriotically bet my hard earned cash against him. I am rooting gsp.
 
Mulletsoldier

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lol - No I am not. Trust me, I hate picking against GSP. Excellent fighter, great person and very humble gentlemen. I really, really like both guys and have been following them for a long time, but if GSP cant get Alves down (which i think he can, inconsistantly though) then GSP good striking will only last so long against Alves excellent striking.

Also, I agree with you, GSP's head has been cleared a long time ago. :)
Damn, thought I had somebody! I definitely understand all your points, as they are all valid. IMO, though, GSP has faced individuals with greater TDD [Kos, BJ] and taken them down consistently. Let's not forget that his last two fights consisted of passing Jon Fitch's guard, a feet never accomplished, and utterly dominating BJ Penn and taking him down at will. In all honesty, GSP will have issues with TDs the first round, and take Alvez down and pound him thereafter.

Alvez is talking a huge game now, but he looked utterly petrified of GSP, post-GSP/Penn II. GSP is going to overwhelm Alvez, and he will be dead-in-the-water by RD III at the latest!
 

bigwhiteguy29

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haha i wouldn't mind i just wanna see a war followed by a k.o.
 
elscotto

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how the fark does thiago go from being a normal looking 170pound fighter to the very large unusualy muscualr guy we seen when he faught matt hughes? obviouse he has used but how does he manage not to get caught?
 
Rodja

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how the fark does thiago go from being a normal looking 170pound fighter to the very large unusualy muscualr guy we seen when he faught matt hughes? obviouse he has used but how does he manage not to get caught?
He was always a big WW, but he never garnered much attention until he KO'd Karo. He's added about 3-5 lbs of LBM a year since '05.
 

bigwhiteguy29

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yeah im not saying he didnt use because i think many athletes used to maybe get where they are today and then stoopped using. it is very possible he did it naturally its not that hard. also brown guys like him i think can get ripped and keep size and lose fat. just IMO.
 
Mulletsoldier

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Here is something else I was thinking about: how much will the cut affect Thiago's strength? If he is truly 200lbs pre-fight - which quite a few reports say he is - than a substantial portion of that 30lbs is going to be lean mass - i.e., decided strength loss. If he does not lose a lot of lean mass, that is 200lbs worth of oxygen-consuming muscle against one of the best-conditioned athletes in MMA - i.e., the possibility for gassing.

If Thiago has a hope in this fight, it is a KO/TKO within the first two rounds; outside of those first two rounds, I would say his chances are 10-15%. Even within those two rounds, it depends on how much strength he retains. Also, reports out of people who have been to TriStar gym are that GSP has put on quite a bit of lean mass for this fight. Does this negate Thiago's strength, the weight drop notwithstanding? We will see!

I have actually changed my prediction: GSP via dominating victory.
 
somewhatgifted

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Here is something else I was thinking about: how much will the cut affect Thiago's strength? If he is truly 200lbs pre-fight - which quite a few reports say he is - than a substantial portion of that 30lbs is going to be lean mass - i.e., decided strength loss. If he does not lose a lot of lean mass, that is 200lbs worth of oxygen-consuming muscle against one of the best-conditioned athletes in MMA - i.e., the possibility for gassing.

If Thiago has a hope in this fight, it is a KO/TKO within the first two rounds; outside of those first two rounds, I would say his chances are 10-15%. Even within those two rounds, it depends on how much strength he retains. Also, reports out of people who have been to TriStar gym are that GSP has put on quite a bit of lean mass for this fight. Does this negate Thiago's strength, the weight drop notwithstanding? We will see!

I have actually changed my prediction: GSP via dominating victory.
Thiago can be strong, and a devastating ko guy but he will be hard pressed to do so against a fast, explosive, throwing, takedown artist in gsp. I think thiago gets smothered in this fight and when he does get tired gets gnp'ed.

GSP's footwork is sick.
 

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