anabolicrhino
Well-known member
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..so, hows that "supply and demand" thing work again???
..so, hows that "supply and demand" thing work again???
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..so, hows that "supply and demand" thing work again???
Higher prices at the pump today are a matter of simple economics. U.S. refiners have the ability to churn out 17 million barrels of gasoline per day. Demand is around 22 million barrels per day. To make up the difference, we bring in gasoline from foreign refiners, which means that, at the margins, pump prices are set by import prices. Gasoline, like crude oil, is auctioned worldwide to the highest bidder, and with the dollar weak and overseas economic growth strong because of our fantastic appetite for iPods made in China and T-shirts made in Costa Rica, we have to pay up to keep our supply coming in. And that's all there is to it. With U.S. refinery capacity now at ridiculously low levels due in part to lack of investment in new plants amid harsh environmental rules. because of our environmental rules there has not been a refinery built in the US in the past 30 years and we are only able to access gas in 15% of the outer contentianal shelf. The supply is constrained by us, the American people. people dont want the trade offs of having lower gas. its that simple.
Spunkles - good response - reps.
But - you forgot to mention one of the big problems this spring has been maintenance that has extended into the summer driving season (most is completed in the fall and spring).
I attribute that to refiners running flat out since, basically, Katrina/Rita to meet the demand (and were told that by the government).
Equipment will foul up/fail if you don't maintain it. It's like your car.
The other portion of this is labor. Companies are having trouble finding guys to weld, fix equipment, and engineers to design fixes.
The labor pool since Katrina of folks with any knowledge of petrochemical plants has really shrunk. Companies have had real trouble staffing up for maintenance times. That has caused them to string further out in the driving season.
(Plus - time to build steel components has increased also - due to the squeeze on engineering design firms and steel availability.)
I do think refiners aren't totally without blame. The concept of "pay me now - pay me a lot later" is often lost when chasing profits (relative to proper maintenance intervals).
well part of the maintenance is for the government mandated "summer blend" of gasoline. the oil refineries actually have to shut down temporarily to switch the whole refinery over to the new blend. summer blends can cost between 3 to 15 cents more to produce than winter blends and then add on the cost of switching over all of the gas stations in the country to the new blends as well.
oil companies make so much profits becuase they sell a heck of alot of units. even with the price rising the profit margin of oil compaines has stayed relatively the same of exon mobile is 10% and compare that with citibank 18%, 3M is 19%, and microsoft was 31%... I dont hear anyone complaining that citibank, 3m or microsoft are making too much profits.
Higher prices at the pump today are a matter of simple economics. U.S. refiners have the ability to churn out 17 million barrels of gasoline per day. Demand is around 22 million barrels per day. To make up the difference, we bring in gasoline from foreign refiners, which means that, at the margins, pump prices are set by import prices. Gasoline, like crude oil, is auctioned worldwide to the highest bidder, and with the dollar weak and overseas economic growth strong because of our fantastic appetite for iPods made in China and T-shirts made in Costa Rica, we have to pay up to keep our supply coming in. And that's all there is to it. With U.S. refinery capacity now at ridiculously low levels due in part to lack of investment in new plants amid harsh environmental rules. because of our environmental rules there has not been a refinery built in the US in the past 30 years and we are only able to access gas in 15% of the outer contentianal shelf. The supply is constrained by us, the American people. people dont want the trade offs of having lower gas. its that simple.
You seem to have a bit of insight to how this system works.
Remember the Summer of 2006 when gas prices peaked around mid July, then slowly drifted downward toward the Fall ?
What economic factors cause this ?
Thanks!
The current supply and demand situation is exacerbated by the fact that there appears to be little if any "price elasticity of demand" for gasoline in the current market. For many products, there is a price point at which consumers are no longer willing to purchase and demand falls triggering a corresponding fall in prices. Currently gasoline prices appear to be relatively inelastic. Consumers have not been willing to decrease their demand for gasoline in the face of rising prices, hence a continuing lack of suppy with little market correction in the form of decreased consumption. This market environment tends to keep prices at relatively high levels and supplies tight.
I would be interested in getting other's opinions on Ethanol as any sort of a viable alternative for the U.S. My personal opinion is that though it works great for Brazil, we here do not have the same readily available arable land for the clutivation of Corn for ethanol production. Currently, any corn used in the production of ethanol competes against the demand for corn as foodstuffs. I think it is a blind alley for us as any sort of a significant solution. In limited quantities similar to what exists now it is a pretty good deal for farmers financially. But corn prices for all consumers will be placed under significant upward pressure if demand increases significantly for fuel ethanol.
My 2 cents.
We are still very lucky compared to Europe on our gas prices. It is around $5/gallon over there.
well part of the maintenance is for the government mandated "summer blend" of gasoline. the oil refineries actually have to shut down temporarily to switch the whole refinery over to the new blend. summer blends can cost between 3 to 15 cents more to produce than winter blends and then add on the cost of switching over all of the gas stations in the country to the new blends as well.
oil companies make so much profits becuase they sell a heck of alot of units. even with the price rising the profit margin of oil compaines has stayed relatively the same of exon mobile is 10% and compare that with citibank 18%, 3M is 19%, and microsoft was 31%... I dont hear anyone complaining that citibank, 3m or microsoft are making too much profits.
You seem to have a bit of insight to how this system works.
Remember the Summer of 2006 when gas prices peaked around mid July, then slowly drifted downward toward the Fall ?
What economic factors cause this ?
Thanks!
alright guys all of your arguments and responses are well supported but can anyone explain to me why gas prices DOUBLED in less than a year? along with oil company profits?
Once more, it's called supply vs demand, and the price equilibrates the two.
so worldwide consumption of gas DOUBLED in one year? hence the price doubled?.....hence oil company profits doubled?
Demand Rhino.
Joe Schmoe takes his family to wherever for the summer vacation (multiplied by a few million) - you get the drift.
Prices always rise in the summer due to demand and fall in the winter. The degree of the fall depends on how mild the winter is (as CDB said).
Once more, it's called supply vs demand, and the price equilibrates the two.
so worldwide consumption of gas DOUBLED in one year? hence the price doubled?.....hence oil company profits doubled?
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This supply/ demand thing works in the vacuum of an economics class, but there is no real world equilibrium.
The market sets the price as to what ever it can bear.
The only equilibrium is the Invalid Link Removed ...which is also know as the "f*ck you buddy" economic theory.
The only equilibrium is the balance between the highest price per unit that can be charged for the maximum amount units sold. The point at which the any higher price deters the sale of any more units per market becomes the market price.
...as Tony "scarface" Montana used to say "Never underestimate the other guys greed" !
...as Tony "scarface" Montana used to say "Never underestimate the other guys greed" !
So, Joe Schmoe's two week family vacation expends more fuel than Joe schmoes daily, two way weekly commute?
If this is the cyclical event that happens every summer why not increase production ahead of demand to keep prices stable?
Its just smart business if the oil companies want to make to make a profit by the manipulation of the supply in order to create a rise in price, but why all the speculation ?
Oil companies want to please there shareholders. If company XYZ makes $500m one year and $490 the next year their share price will drop. Prices go up to keep the profits up and the bubbly flowing at the annual shareholders meeting. And the governement likes the prices going up as their cut gets bigger and bigger.
If company XYZ makes $500m one year and $490 the next year their share price will drop.
The current supply and demand situation is exacerbated by the fact that there appears to be little if any "price elasticity of demand" for gasoline in the current market. For many products, there is a price point at which consumers are no longer willing to purchase and demand falls triggering a corresponding fall in prices. Currently gasoline prices appear to be relatively inelastic. Consumers have not been willing to decrease their demand for gasoline in the face of rising prices, hence a continuing lack of suppy with little market correction in the form of decreased consumption. This market environment tends to keep prices at relatively high levels and supplies tight.
As spunkles182 mentioned, not only do we import oil to be refined here, we also are importing refined GASOLINE. Very inefficient and cost ineffective.
I would be interested in getting other's opinions on Ethanol as any sort of a viable alternative for the U.S. My personal opinion is that though it works great for Brazil, we here do not have the same readily available arable land for the clutivation of Corn for ethanol production. Currently, any corn used in the production of ethanol competes against the demand for corn as foodstuffs. I think it is a blind alley for us as any sort of a significant solution. In limited quantities similar to what exists now it is a pretty good deal for farmers financially. But corn prices for all consumers will be placed under significant upward pressure if demand increases significantly for fuel ethanol.
My 2 cents.
The use of corn to make ethanol is a viable, but entirely terrible idea for the economy and the country as a whole. My senior design project in college (Im a chemical engineer) was to develop a design for a corn to ethanol plant for a real company along with a few of my classmates. The organic conversion rate is not all that hot to begin with. So you produce a lot of waste in the process, although with more capital expenses you can recycle portions of it. Something a lot of people don't know is that a farmer cannot continually plant corn on the same plot of land year after year. Corn absorbs more nutrients than it returns to the soil, draining the soil of any substance. So farmers are forced to "rotate" fields, planting vegetation that is high in nutrients that they can't sell. Instead they till that field with the new, high nutrient plants on it to re-fertilize the soil. All this craze for converting corn to ethanol is stupid. Its driving up the cost of corn (and all its by-products). Like feed for cattle, which in turn drives up the cost of milk and beef. Anyone notice that milk is $3+ a gallon now? However, since the government subsidizes the growth of corn for ethanol production it has taken a lot of farmers away from their normal crops and has them growing corn anywhere they can plant it for the financial reward. The end result is a sharp increase is a lot more consumer products and no lowering of gas prices. Congratulations US government. They strike again!
Ethanol crap is all about winning the Iowa primaries and getting money from the corn lobby.
I agree. its also yet another example of why social planning does not work.
The use of corn to make ethanol is a viable, but entirely terrible idea for the economy and the country as a whole. My senior design project in college (Im a chemical engineer) was to develop a design for a corn to ethanol plant for a real company along with a few of my classmates. The organic conversion rate is not all that hot to begin with. So you produce a lot of waste in the process, although with more capital expenses you can recycle portions of it. Something a lot of people don't know is that a farmer cannot continually plant corn on the same plot of land year after year. Corn absorbs more nutrients than it returns to the soil, draining the soil of any substance. So farmers are forced to "rotate" fields, planting vegetation that is high in nutrients that they can't sell. Instead they till that field with the new, high nutrient plants on it to re-fertilize the soil. All this craze for converting corn to ethanol is stupid. Its driving up the cost of corn (and all its by-products). Like feed for cattle, which in turn drives up the cost of milk and beef. Anyone notice that milk is $3+ a gallon now? However, since the government subsidizes the growth of corn for ethanol production it has taken a lot of farmers away from their normal crops and has them growing corn anywhere they can plant it for the financial reward. The end result is a sharp increase is a lot more consumer products and no lowering of gas prices. Congratulations US government. They strike again!
If for example, Michegan had that first big primary instead, you'd see politicians offering all kinds of tax breaks, and subsidies to car manufacturers. Likewise they'd be spun in such a way as to sound like some kind of thing to help the environment or help decrease some kind of cost of living factor when in reality all they would do is boost car manufacturers' revenues and #### the average Joe over.
Lopez said that, not Tony.
"never underestimate ... the OTHER GUY'S greeeed! HAHAHAHAHAHA!"
Actually that's called conditioning and they teach it during the indoctrination process, so that you have a constructed system you can call the "equilibration" of supply and demand. Meanwhile the people with the real power in this world create the illusion of choice for the people who don't have any!Yeah, that's called equillibrating supply and demand so markets clear...
Actually equillibrium is a theoretical state of no uncertainty called the evenly rotating economy, and it has nothing to do with prices 'equillibrating' supply and demand. Once more you're letting your basic knowledge of the matter lead you into areas you think you know but actually don't.
Prices are formed through buyer and seller interaction, not solely on one side or the other.
The use of corn to make ethanol is a viable, but entirely terrible idea for the economy and the country as a whole. My senior design project in college (Im a chemical engineer) was to develop a design for a corn to ethanol plant for a real company along with a few of my classmates. The organic conversion rate is not all that hot to begin with. So you produce a lot of waste in the process, although with more capital expenses you can recycle portions of it. Something a lot of people don't know is that a farmer cannot continually plant corn on the same plot of land year after year. Corn absorbs more nutrients than it returns to the soil, draining the soil of any substance. So farmers are forced to "rotate" fields, planting vegetation that is high in nutrients that they can't sell. Instead they till that field with the new, high nutrient plants on it to re-fertilize the soil. All this craze for converting corn to ethanol is stupid. Its driving up the cost of corn (and all its by-products). Like feed for cattle, which in turn drives up the cost of milk and beef. Anyone notice that milk is $3+ a gallon now? However, since the government subsidizes the growth of corn for ethanol production it has taken a lot of farmers away from their normal crops and has them growing corn anywhere they can plant it for the financial reward. The end result is a sharp increase is a lot more consumer products and no lowering of gas prices. Congratulations US government. They strike again!
nice catch !
Actually that's called conditioning and they teach it during the indoctrination process, so that you have a constructed system you can call the "equilibration" of supply and demand. Meanwhile the people with the real power in this world create the illusion of choice for the people who don't have any!
Please excuse my ignorance , but could you explain how equilibrium is not related to a process that you refer to as "equilibrating supply and demand" with respect to price.
What do you mean by a theoretical state with no uncertainty?
Thanks CDB, with my new found knowledge, I can actually buy stuff !
You Chem-Es are nuts, I should know...I used to be one. Cal 3 and Organic 1 cured me of that.Rock on jmh80. ChE all the wizzay :bow28:
This is borderline theosophic bs.
Equillibrium does not nor will it ever exist. It is a theoretical construct in which no uncertainty exists. As such no money exists. All surplus productivity is spent or saved/invested to come due and be converted perfectly when needed into a consumption good. It's used mainly as a mental tool to help people distinguish between interest/capital returns and profit, which doesn't actually exist under equillibrium conditions.
Price equlibration is just a name for the process by which prices either rise or fall so markets can clear. It's not a state of being, it's a continuous process of feedback from the various factors that affect prices to maximize effeciency on the part of production. Surpluses and shortages mean wasted resources within and without a specific process of production respectively. Those wastes don't benefit anyone.
I mean just that, a theoretical state in which all outcomes are known in advance. As stated above, it's a construct used to differentiate between the capitalist process of saving and investment which leads to interest/returns, and profits which can't exist without uncertainty.
Well apparently you think otherwise given your statement above implying there is no choice.
The use of corn to make ethanol is a viable, but entirely terrible idea for the economy and the country as a whole. My senior design project in college (Im a chemical engineer) was to develop a design for a corn to ethanol plant for a real company along with a few of my classmates. The organic conversion rate is not all that hot to begin with. So you produce a lot of waste in the process, although with more capital expenses you can recycle portions of it. Something a lot of people don't know is that a farmer cannot continually plant corn on the same plot of land year after year. Corn absorbs more nutrients than it returns to the soil, draining the soil of any substance. So farmers are forced to "rotate" fields, planting vegetation that is high in nutrients that they can't sell. Instead they till that field with the new, high nutrient plants on it to re-fertilize the soil. All this craze for converting corn to ethanol is stupid. Its driving up the cost of corn (and all its by-products). Like feed for cattle, which in turn drives up the cost of milk and beef. Anyone notice that milk is $3+ a gallon now? However, since the government subsidizes the growth of corn for ethanol production it has taken a lot of farmers away from their normal crops and has them growing corn anywhere they can plant it for the financial reward. The end result is a sharp increase is a lot more consumer products and no lowering of gas prices. Congratulations US government. They strike again!
what do you think about cellulosic ethanol?
what do you think about cellulosic ethanol?