Mel Kiper and Todd McShay Wrong Every Year by Joe ESQ
03-02-2012 01:07 PM
Mel Kiper and Todd McShay Wrong Every Year by Joe ESQ
Joe Esq.: Mel Kiper and Todd McShay – Wrong Every Year | Good Looking Loser
^original post, comments sections, pictures... this will look cleaner I think
Thought some of you guys might like this, you'll have to raise questions/comment on the original page (above) for the author to respond though
Mel Kiper and Todd McShay – Wrong EVERY Year
Kiper, McShay theory: Crappy college players make for NFL stars.
By: Joe Esq. (Usually Right on Everything)
As you’re all aware, the NFL draft is coming up in April. That’s means that your about to see and hear a bunch of mock drafts and analysis regarding prospects that is completely wrong from ESPN and practically every other mainstream sports site. Guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay will tell us who’s the best prospect at each position and why—not because of how the prospects actually play football, but because of how fast they run on a track or lift on a bench press. Of course, McShay and Kiper will be proven wrong when the games begin, but they’ll come back next year and pretend that never happened, and the media will still point to them as authorities on the subject. Those guys and the other media outlets will pick a handful of prospects that are for some reason deemed great, and the media will then debate about which one’s better (again, not by pointing to how they actually play football) and which one should be taken higher, totally ignoring the other 500 prospects in the draft, many of whom have proven better than the two guys they happen to be talking about. (For example, they’ll debate about which QB should be taken as if there are only two possibilities, Locker or Gabbert, even though everyone who watched college football knows Dalton, Ponder or Kapernick might certainly be better.)
If you couldn’t tell above, the coverage of the draft has become incredibly frustrating to me, and yet the ratings for it keep increasing. Why? Partly because the draft is a cool and pretty important event, but probably also because the average person who watches the draft is a profession football fan and not a college football fan. Maybe it’s so important that they’ll watch it regardless of how ****ty the coverage is, but I doubt it because its not a game or an event that really needs to be seen visually. Regardless, the pro fans simply don’t realize that McShay and Kiper are completely full of ****. They don’t care that they don’t get an accurate understanding about how the prospect actually plays football. What they want to hear is that the guy they picked is awesome and how he will fit in with their team. That’s certainly what they’ll get from Kiper and Co. They’ll say that everyone is big and strong and has tons of “upside”, and they’ll tell you what position they’ll play and where they fall on the depth chart, even though they really have no clue and just looked at the depth chart and mentioned the prospect along with the other guys at the same position.
If that’s true and the pro fans are happy with the coverage though, what’s the problem, you ask. Isn’t this an event for pro football fans anyway? There is a two-part answer for that. (1) No, it’s not just an event for pro fans. College fans have watched these prospects regularly for years, so now they have an interest when those prospects are finally rewarded for what they’ve done. (2) More importantly, the draft could become so much more interesting, enlightening and entertaining for the fans if the media stopped being lazy, did its homework, and then spent the draft talking about and showing relevant clips of what everybody viewing actually cares about—FOOTBALL.
Unlike the NBA draft, which includes prospects that played overseas or only spent one year in college, the NFL includes prospects that people have actually seen play before. In order to enter the draft, they have to have been at least 3 years out of high school. Since there are no major international American football leagues (that’s not an oxymoron, “American football” is the name of the sport), most prospects have played at least a couple of years in college football. As a result, we’ve already seen what each prospect has done in almost every circumstance imaginable. That’s what we should be seeing highlights of. That’s what Kiper and Co. should be spending their time talking about.
What I mean by different circumstance is not how they performed on a couple of plays against a 4-3 instead of a 3-4 or a cover-2 instead of man coverage. What I’m referring to is different game situations. How did the quarterback perform when his team was playing for a conference title on the road, down 4 with 1:30 left? How did the wide receiver perform after he got laid out by the monster safety on the second series of the game? How did the running back perform when his team was trying to run the last 6 minutes of the clock against a physical defense that loaded up against the run? Did the safety get beat for a 50 yards TD pass in the final minute when everyone knew the opposing offense would be throwing, costing his team the game? That’s the stuff that’s interesting. Those are the highlights that are meaningful. That’s the way NFL fans will get an idea about who they’re getting, and college fans will at least feel like they’re watching something legitimate.
In the following weeks, I’ll be discussing these types of things with regard to this year’s prospects, letting you know who’s legit and who’s not. In the meantime, I’ll give two examples of why the analysis from ESPN’s draft “gurus” is so damn ****ty. I’m using examples from two years ago because we now know just how wrong the commentators were. I’m not playing the result either; Chris can verify that I made these arguments to years ago.
(1) Jimmy Clausen. Jimmy Clausen was the QB for Notre Dame. When he entered the draft, he was universally thought of as one of the two best QB prospects in the draft by the “experts”. We heard about how tall and athletic he was, how great his arm strength was, etc. The debate was between him and Sam Bradford and who should be drafted higher (the typical debate about two prospects as though they’re clearly the two best, even though one of them isn’t anywhere close). Kiper thought Clausen wasn’t as good as Bradford, but still should have been a high first-round pick. McShay actually argued that Clausen was the best QB in the draft and should’ve been a top-10 pick.
That was ridiculous because anybody who actually watched Jimmy Clausen play knew he was horrible. Nobody in their right mind who watched him would even feel comfortable with him being the backup on you college team, never mind a starter on an NFL team. In 2009, Clausen’s Notre Dame team finished 6-6, losing their last four games, including losses at home to Navy and UConn. They were the same way the prior year, 6-6 with loses at home to Pitt and Syracuse. Clausen had a terrific offensive coach, Charlie Weis. He was surrounded by two of the best WRs in all of college football and a stud TE. Despite that, when his team needed a first down against UConn to complete a nice comeback, Clausen threw a pick. When they needed one first down to seal a win against Syracuse, Clausen threw two passes in the dirt. When they had a chance to beat USC with one final 2-yard pass, Clausen couldn’t even give his receiver a chance, throwing into the ground yards away from the receiver even though it was a simple slant route three yards past the line of scrimmage. In sum, Clausen sucked as a college football player. He was a terrible QB. Fans at the draft should have been advised of that and shown it on tape. So-called “draft experts” should have known that and discussed it. Instead viewers heard how Carolina had just drafted a stud at QB, which was infuriation to people who knew better and proved misleading to everybody else, as Clause predictably sucked for Carolina so much that they spent the first pick in the draft on a QB the following year.
(2) Gerald McCoy. McCoy was a defensive tackle for Oklahoma. He was widely considered a top-3 pick and one of the two best defensive players in the draft along with Nebraska DT N. Suh (again with the debate about two prospects as though they’re clearly the two best, even though one of them isn’t anywhere close). Kiper and McShay talked about how big and strong he was and argued about who should be picked first between him and Suh.
This was also ridiculous was because anybody who actually watched McCoy and Suh knew that McCoy wasn’t very good and Suh was a premier DT. Suh led a lousy Nebraska team with no offense whatsoever within one play of going to a BCS bowl. Sun manhandled Colt McCoy’s Texas team, which itself would have won the National Title had Colt McCoy not gotten hurt against Alabama. Suh single-handedly won several games for his team, including a win against Missouri where he forced the key fumble in addition to several sacks. A prolific Arizona offense couldn’t score against Nebraksa because it’s QB couldn’t get a second to breathe with Suh in his face the entire game. Basically, Suh was an unblockable monster– probably the best overall player in college football—and deserving of all the hype.
McCoy meanwhile was an average player at best. His Oklahoma defense was the team’s weakness. They couldn’t stop anybody. And that wasn’t despite him; it was partly because of him. I was sitting in the stands when Oklahoma played Miami. Miami had been struggling running the ball for years. Their best back, senior Javaris James, hadn’t reached the century mark in a game since his freshman year. Their offensive line couldn’t block anybody. What happened when they faced McCoy and Oklahoma, though? Miami ran right up the middle, right through the Oklahoma defense. James had the best game of his career. With about 6-8 minutes left, Miami got the ball deep in its own territory up by 1. All Oklahoma’s defense needed to do was get one lousy stop. Miami ran the ball to run the clock, but just kept doing it over and over again when Oklahoma couldn’t stop it. They moved all the way down the field, and the game ended with Miami kneeling on the ball deep in Oklahoma territory. McCoy’s line couldn’t get one stop against a **** running game with the game on the line, even though they knew it was coming.
Why would anybody believe that McCoy would do better in the NFL? Why wasn’t this discussed/shown during the coverage? It really less interesting/entertaining that hearing McShay and Kiper talk about weight and 40-times?
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03-02-2012 01:42 PM
Wow what a rant but very true lol
03-06-2012 06:23 PM
Running with the Big Boys
they are right for the first three picks usually. then its a crapshoot. i didnt read your whole post lol just figured you were talking about there mock drafts
03-19-2012 10:35 PM
This is true...Can't fault them for this at all!! LOL
04-15-2012 12:56 PM
What ever gm and coach drafts tannehill aka "ryan leaf 2 " is commiting career suicide. Luck and rg3 look like instant stars but remember how jamarcus Russell turned out. And don't forget akili smith I'm sure the Bengals fans dont.
04-27-2012 03:14 PM
Dolphins Congrats you get tannehill.
Another bust pick. Maybe yall can trade for colt mcoy. LOL.
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