Which Is The Right Choice ? Why ??

[anabolicrhino]

Please show your work!:blink:

MIENFOKS: WHICH IS THE RIGHT CHOICE ? - WHY ?

 

[DmitryWI]

Yea, he's right. I knew that before.

 

[ItsHectic]

I wonder if it really works in the long run, I have tried theories like this on baccarat and roulette and in the long run it doesnt work.

What makes me think this, is once its time to swap your odds are still 50/50 wether you decide to swap or not.

 

[anabolicrhino]

I wonder if it really works in the long run, I have tried theories like this on baccarat and roulette and in the long run it doesnt work.

What makes me think this, is once its time to swap your odds are still 50/50 wether you decide to swap or not.

It is the probability that is greater. Your first choice is a one in three which is a 33%probability

Your second choice is a one in two which is a 50% probability

by switching you increase the probability by 12%

Ultimately, you are only decreasing the frequency of goats to cars. The actual results would vary between 33% and 50% with about a 2% deviation. It would not be impossible to lose every time just improbable. Chance is not regulated by probability
Chance means possibility and can not be quantified. and of course some people just have bad luck !!!

 

[ItsHectic]

You lost me there, although I understand the concept, but something tells me the outcome would ultimatly be the same.

 

[DmitryWI]

Nope, AR is right.

 

[anabolicrhino]

You lost me there, although I understand the concept, but something tells me the outcome would ultimatly be the same.

Well, the reality is you have only one chance, basically you either win or lose, only the variables change.

But if you switch doors you would have a 12% greater probability of picking the car, than if you kept your first choice.

One of the things that makes gambling exciting is that you only need one chance to win. Chance and probability are two different things.

A chance is like an at bat you have one chance to win for every play.

Probability is the frequency of an occurrence of a specific event.
You can map probability with mathematical equations to predict
the likely hood of a specific event occurring in a given time frame.

This time frame is usually expressed as a chance.

Chance and probability are interrelated but are not the same thing.

This is how the "house gets you". They tell you you have a 1 in 3 chance at picking the car, but the reality is that you have one chance to pick the car. You have a one in three probability to pick the car, but still only one chance

So, if you pick the car the first time and do not switch you will get the car with your one chance, even though the probability was only 33% that you would be right,..you have just beat the odds! Congratulations, this must be your lucky night! Would you like to play again? How about a free drink??? !!!